Support NeoGAF

[gundamkyoukai]

it's not even the ps/xbox ecosystem, but a very specific part of that ecosystem. my favorite games on the ps2 were valkyrie profile 2, devil may cry, and dragon quest viii. the market hasn't been contracting on just outside these two platforms, but within them as well.

That comes partly from the Japanese side but there is nothing that can be done about since they move to mobile and even then they going run into problems later on .
There a dead end country in many ways and games just part of the problem with them .
People that not really grow on Japan game like last gen not really going to miss them as much as people like us that grow up in the NES to PS2 era.

EDIT i love there games but i have learn to move on .

 

[Biker19]

Halo + Gears wasn't enough last generation, though, why would it be enough this generation? Microsoft has dealt itself a much worse hand this time than it did last time.

Not to mention that Halo 4 & Gears of War Judgment had turned off a lot of fans, even hardcore fans (thread about Halo 4 here).

I'm predicting that people that want Halo 5 & the next Gears game are gonna do a "wait & see" approach on the gameplay before dropping $400 on a Xbox One for them.

 

[AniHawk]

Right, that the line-up consists almost entirely of vacuumed up third party titles and Project Steam outside of the long announced Smash Bros and the expected Pokemon filler title sticks out to me as a system where they're buying time with the line-up.

Now, they could go announce a bunch of things later, but the 3DS being a focus wasn't the impression I got out of E3.

paying attention to nintendo's software output reminds me of this exchange from the simpsons:

Homer: Oh! And how is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some old stuff out of my brain. Remember that time I took a home wine making course and forgot how to drive?
Marge: That's because you were drunk!
Homer: And how!

every time they focus on one market, they tend to neglect the other. they basically left the gba to intelligent systems while they scrambled to make all sorts of games for the gamecube and rush those to the market. then they stopped making console games around 2005 while a ton of ds titles came out between 2005 and 2007. from 2009-2010, their efforts were more focused on wii games than ds games. the following year they had to rush out super mario 3d land and mario kart 7 and put a lot of resources behind 3ds development- and at the same time, wii u software was nonexistent up until pretty much now. 2015 seems to have the most robust first-party lineup for their console space since 2010, but it seems the 3ds suffers as a result.

they've got to be preparing for a situation where they're essentially the only platform supporter. not really making a hybrid system, but something where library is largely transferable between platforms would do them well. they generally publish about 20 games a year, but you wouldn't know it because of how it gets split up.

 

[borghe]

However, if you are a person who had a particular fondness for that anything else, then the contraction of the home console market is a pretty big deal to you. That portion of the market is no longer serving your interest very well.

it's cyclical. as I said a little bit ago, it's a new console user base that's cropping up. you aren't going to see risky projects thrown around the same way you didn't (when I was growing up) at the beginning of the NES/SMS era. Heck even going into the Genesis/SNES era there was a LOT of safety in those releases. Until the market finally more firmly redefines itself, what you are saying it absolutely true. The riskier stuff we saw come to prominence in the PS2 and Wii eras is gone. It sucks, but I don't believe it's permanent. The market just has to re-establish itself. A good sign that has happened is when general consensus is "hey the market is going good!!!" not "consoles are fucking dying..."

to re-use my comic book analogy.. comics were failing from the mid-90s to early 00s. Even though by the late 90s the industry started seeing small growth. It wasn't until there were like 3-4 years of consecutive year over year growth that the industry started to finally say "oh damn! we aren't dead!"

my guess is it will be similar for the core gaming industry. A few years of saying "well this sucks compared to our glory years" followed by 2-3 years of YoY growth followed by "well look at that, the industry isn't dead" My guess is all of this will become super apparent by Holiday 2015, just taking a stab in the dark.

every time they focus on one market, they tend to neglect the other.

I really don't think internal development at Nintendo is anywhere near close to Sony in terms of size.. that's the big problem. This is further compounded by what we are talking about in this thread. that people by Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games. On top of that their customers EXPECT AAA first party titles for both systems, and not just ala PS3/Vita (aka cross platform) but actual titles focused on that system's core competencies. I think what they've done with Platinum and previously Capcom in the GCN era is where they need to go. Create first party titles. Fund third party titles.

 

[Mpl90]

paying attention to nintendo's software output reminds me of this exchange from the simpsons:

Homer: Oh! And how is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some old stuff out of my brain. Remember that time I took a home wine making course and forgot how to drive?
Marge: That's because you were drunk!
Homer: And how!

every time they focus on one market, they tend to neglect the other. they basically left the gba to intelligent systems while they scrambled to make all sorts of games for the gamecube and rush those to the market. then they stopped making console games around 2005 while a ton of ds titles came out between 2005 and 2007. from 2009-2010, their efforts were more focused on wii games than ds games. the following year they had to rush out super mario 3d land and mario kart 7 and put a lot of resources behind 3ds development- and at the same time, wii u software was nonexistent up until pretty much now. 2015 seems to have the most robust first-party lineup for their console space since 2010, but it seems the 3ds suffers as a result.

they've got to be preparing for a situation where they're essentially the only platform supporter. not really making a hybrid system, but something where library is largely transferable between platforms would do them well. they generally publish about 20 games a year, but you wouldn't know it because of how it gets split up.

Given all the "NintendOS" talk by Iwata, that seems like a part of the future plan.

 

[Rannta]

wow. I'm surprised that sales of ds2 are nearly identical between x360 and ps3.

 

[Opiate]

Oh absolutely. It's just that I think that problem is borderline intractable and that almost every publisher or even large scale independent developer has just moved on and starting making phone/tablet/browser/f2p online games if they still want that in that market.

Like even if we look at a studio like Netherrealm, they're making Mortal Kombat and Injustice for consoles, but also making a bunch of Batman and Injustice games for phones/tablets as the equivalent of what would used to be handheld titles.

Similarly we see Remedy and Insomniac making AAA games for Microsoft while simultaneously making iOS games.

Epic and Crytek's transformation from AAA console game makers to f2p PC/console and mobile developers has also been stark.

I think my worry with simply conceding this market (from Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft's perspective) is that this expanded market is:

1) Bigger
2) More profitable

Throwing your hands up and saying "welp can't compete with Apple and Google" has some pretty big downsides. Generally speaking -- based on historical precedent in other markets -- when you make these sorts of concessions, it allows your competitors to grow, expand, and eventually consume your market position (if not your company entirely).

It would be another issue entirely if the portion of the market we were talking about was narrow or unprofitable, but it's the opposite, if anything. Keep in mind that we're talking fairly long time lines here -- 10+ years -- so future prognostication is quite difficult. Still, past precedent on this is pretty clear. Home consoles looked boxed in to me.

 

[DC1]

besides me ever seem to actually notice these ambiguities haha.

Many of us exist in the shadows.

 

[Nirolak]

I think my worry with simply conceding this market (from Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft's perspective) is that this expanded market is:

1) Bigger
2) More profitable

Throwing your hands up and saying "welp can't compete with Apple and Google" has some pretty big downsides. Generally speaking -- based on historical precedent in other markets -- when you make these sorts of concessions, it allows your competitors to grow, expand, and eventually consume your market position (if not your company entirely).

It would be another issue entirely if the portion of the market we were talking about was narrow or unprofitable, but it's the opposite, if anything. Keep in mind that we're talking fairly long time lines here -- 10+ years -- so future prognostication is quite difficult. Still, past precedent on this is pretty clear.

It's kind of the crux of the issue Microsoft and Sony have competing with Apple and Google in general though, no?

They keep getting disrupted and eventually surpassed, be it web search, web browsers, cameras, phones, tablets, or a flurry of other services and consumer electronics devices.

However, I think disrupt and eventually surpassed is the key part. If we have Microsoft and Sony pull out within 10-20 years and we're playing titles that resemble AAA games today on Apple TV or Android Streaming or whatever, I don't think the general core audience will be overly upset. Certainly the technology providers at least seem to be thinking in that direction with the engines they're porting over, and Apple and Google seem to be starting to placate them with things like the Metal API and native controller support.

Even the two console vendors in question are putting out iOS games, though it's currently more toe dipping than full scale efforts.

 

[DC1]

Love your avatar pic, had one of those too!

Ha!
I remember moving my black and white tv in the closet (lights off) to simulate deepspace.. environmental immersion!
The game was everything my imagination could make it.

 

[Opiate]

It's kind of the crux of the issue Microsoft and Sony have competing with Apple and Google in general though, no?

They keep getting disrupted and eventually surpassed, be it web search, web browsers, cameras, phones, tablets, or a flurry of other services and consumer electronics devices.

However, I think disrupt and eventually surpassed is the key part. If we have Microsoft and Sony pull out within 10-20 years and we're playing titles that resemble AAA games today on Apple TV or Android Streaming or whatever, I don't think the general core audience will be overly upset. Certainly the technology providers at least seem to be thinking in that direction with the engines they're porting over, and Apple and Google seem to be starting to placate them with things like the Metal API and native controller support. Even the two console vendors in question are putting out iOS games.

Absolutely. Generally, I think the only difference may be that whatever Apple produces is aimed at "casuals" first and core second, rather than the other way around, as Sony and Microsoft tend to do. That doesn't mean it can't play "hardcore" games, and whatever Apple TV is in 10 years will surely be more powerful than the PS4 is today.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

However, I think disrupt and eventually surpassed is the key part. If we have Microsoft and Sony pull out within 10-20 years and we're playing titles that resemble AAA games today on Apple TV or Android Streaming or whatever, I don't think the general core audience will be overly upset. Certainly the technology providers at least seem to be thinking in that direction with the engines they're porting over, and Apple and Google seem to be starting to placate them with things like the Metal API and native controller support. Even the two console vendors in question are putting out iOS games.

I don' think the core audience would be upset at all.

Once internet bandwith is capable and ubiquitous, I think we'll definitely move to just streaming games to simple boxes with all the processing being in the cloud and thus eliminating any need to upgrade consoles, video cards etc.

That's a long ways off of course since internet speed, availability, data caps etc. are a huge burden in many places still. But I think eventually we'll just access everything in the cloud and the days of buying standalone game, movie, music etc. hardware and physical media will be gone.

Absolutely. Generally, I think the only difference may be that whatever Apple produces is aimed at "casuals" first and core second, rather than the other way around, as Sony and Microsoft tend to do. That doesn't mean it can't play "hardcore" games, and whatever Apple TV is in 10 years will surely be more powerful than the PS4 is today.

Sure, but third parties would put games on these streaming platforms that go after core gamers in the scenario above. We'd just be firing up Naughty Dog's latest game on whatever streaming portal hardware we own, rather than buying Sony hardware to play it.

 

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Right, that the line-up consists almost entirely of vacuumed up third party titles and Project Steam outside of the long announced Smash Bros and the expected Pokemon filler title sticks out to me as a system where they're buying time with the line-up.

Now, they could go announce a bunch of things later, but the 3DS being a focus wasn't the impression I got out of E3.

This isn't really too dissimilar to how they handled the DS, though. Aside from Pokemon titles, the latter half of the system's lifespan had a much smaller first party output (with a few games here and there like Mario and Luigi, Golden Sun, Spirit Tracks, etc, and some smaller titles), but it was supported more by third party support.

Whether the 3DS can manage the same thing remains to be seen, but that's probably what Nintendo's plan is at this point, to focus most of their first party studios on the Wii U (aside from teams that mostly/exclusive work on handhelds), and probably have a smaller splattering of first party stuff (possibly another Fire Emblem game, potentially a Metroid title, and some new stuff like STEAM), but bank on bigger third party support. The big launch of Persona Q in Japan indicates that there's still a big market there for third party titles, Yokai Watch has just become the next big thing, and Bravely Default has done quite well both in Japan and in the west, so it should have some life left in that regard, although it's never going to reach the mammoth status the original DS had.

They're probably buying time to a certain extent, but they got about three full years from the original DS with a release schedule around this size, so I would assume they're hoping to get at least another couple of years from the 3DS with smaller first party support (and start working on having some bigger launch titles available for their successor).

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Would've agree with you before, but that's not true now, at least re: PS4/XB1. AFAIK Ghosts has been selling better on PS4 than on XB1. So if MS loses the shooter crowd they won't be left with much unless they can bulk up their exclusives list pretty significantly or somehow get down to an insanely low price.

I'm sure you'll still see traces of the old alignments, even if PS4 is still selling more. It's selling more of basically every game, after all - maybe Ghosts on Xbone is selling more as a proportion of PS4 sales than, say, Assassin's Creed IV.

 

[Jomjom]

wow. I'm surprised that sales of ds2 are nearly identical between x360 and ps3.

Yeah pretty surprising seeing as how the 360 doubles the ps3 installed base in the US. Souls is a PlayStation series though.

 

[Kiant]

Have to admit I picked up a Wii U for MK8.

Spoiler

The thirst is real!

 

[Killing_Joke]

Can't believe X1 hit under 100k already. Sony hit a homer with the Destiny/BFH betas. I'll be shocked if they don't sweep for the rest of the year.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

Well maybe now people will start to take mobile seriously as what is killing the handheld market.

Kids love smartphones, and they were a big majority of handheld sales, especially Nintendo devices.

I love my Vita, it's an amazing device but I don't expect Sony to put out another on after the Vita is done. The numbers are just not there anymore.

So what happens to Japan now?

 

[Version 3.0]

On the topic of "consoles are dead". Here are a couple of quick charts. The first one is home console sales (no handhelds) for Jan-May of each year going back to 2000. It looks bad:

This second one is the exact same data set, except that I've removed the Wii. Suddenly, everything looks fine:

Make of it what you will.

 

[Aquamarine]

Are these correct numbers? And perhaps already posted (searched, but did not find anything)? If I've screwed up, feel free to strangle me with my own hair cut:

https://twitter.com/thuway/status/478909148415807490

PS4- 197k
3DS- 97k
Xbox One- 77k
Wii U- 61k
360- 57k
PSV- 56k
PS3- 36k
Wii- 11k

I encourage you to read the thread...in particular...the past 10 pages / 20 pages if you're using the inferior 50 posts-per-page default.

 

[mrklaw]

I don't think there is necessarily a move towards streaming boxes. People are willing to pay for smartphones etc every couple of years. Why not consoles?

Maybe instead of trying to show value for 5-7 years, Sony/MS could move to a more Ios/PC approach where the software is abstracted from the hardware and you can buy a new box every few years to get better graphics, or stick with what you have

 

[Mory Dunz]

After seeing that Wii U vs GC chart....

Can we officially conclude that the Wii U won't break or maybe even come near GC numbers. I'm predicting 16 Million WW now.

I'm not saying this to be pessimistic, but to be realistic. Earlier in this thread people were talking about the possibility of Wii U beating Xbox 1 WW (lol). I think it's better if that talk just stops.

If we accept the Wii U for what it is, the sales of games can be enjoyed more. So that when X, Splatoon, Starfox, etc eventually come out, the lackluster hardware bumps won't need 20 threads for each one like it's a surprise. The software sales of each game and the game itself can be analyzed.

But anyway, just my opinion. It'll save people from disappointment. If somehow the Wii U beats the GC, I'll eat crow, but I don't think I'm wrong.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Make of it what you will.

I love you.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

this is the wii u in a nutshell. A Nintendo system for gamers who want to play Nintendo games. Of course for a major international electronics manufacturer that may not be a viable long term plan.. but those are the facts right now. What Nintendo needs to do at this point is continue restoring core gamer confidence in the brand (which a 75-85% bump indicates they are slowly doing) and have a rock. fucking. solid. plan for a follow up console that will hopefully be out by Holidays 2016.

Moving out of sync with Sony and Microsoft might actually be good for Nintendo.

 

[Version 3.0]

After seeing that Wii U vs GC chart....

Can we officially conclude that the Wii U won't break or maybe even come near GC numbers. I'm predicting 16 Million WW now.

I think that's been crystal clear for quite a while now. The Wii U's been tracking significantly behind the Gamecube since the beginning, and there's no plausible reason to think it will change.

 

[Aquamarine]

After seeing that Wii U vs GC chart....

Can we officially conclude that the Wii U won't break or maybe even come near GC numbers. I'm predicting 16 Million WW now.

I'm not saying this to be pessimistic, but to be realistic. Earlier in this thread people were talking about the possibility of Wii U beating Xbox 1 WW (lol). I think it's better if that talk just stops.

If we accept the Wii U for what it is, the sales of games can be enjoyed more. So that when X, Splatoon, Starfox, etc eventually come out, the lackluster hardware bumps won't need 20 threads for each one like it's a surprise. The software sales of each game and the game itself can be analyzed.

But anyway, just my opinion. It'll save people from disappointment. If somehow the Wii U beats the GC, I'll eat crow, but I don't think I'm wrong.

Might as well post it again:

I know that Nintendo of America is particularly sensitive to NPD data because it really does represent the success of their operations.

NOA has always been the primary subsidiary of NCL...the USA market is one of the most important (if not THE most important) markets for Nintendo.

So the Wii U's dramatic underperformance...I know it's something that Nintendo has noticed and, in reaction to the data, they have adjusted their corporate strategy accordingly.

The gap between the two only seems to grow with time. I understand that the GameCube was more frontloaded with key IPs, but I think we have enough representative data to conclude a sort of permanent disparity between the two.

Luckily, in Japan, the Wii U is doing much better relative to GameCube.

 

[maquiladora]

On the topic of "consoles are dead". Here are a couple of quick charts. The first one is home console sales (no handhelds) for Jan-May of each year going back to 2000. It looks bad:

This second one is the exact same data set, except that I've removed the Wii. Suddenly, everything looks fine:

Make of it what you will.

10/10

 

[Version 3.0]

In the same vein as the charts above, here's the same thing with full year data (obviously can't include 2014 yet):

And again, without the Wii:

Not to pick on the Wii, but it was an anomaly. It's not fair to just remove it entirely as I've done, since it certainly would've sold millions were it a "normal" console, but I can't summon the willpower to extrapolate figures in between Gamecube and Wii U levels to insert there.

 

[Orthogonal]

On the topic of "consoles are dead". Here are a couple of quick charts. The first one is home console sales (no handhelds) for Jan-May of each year going back to 2000. It looks bad:

This second one is the exact same data set, except that I've removed the Wii. Suddenly, everything looks fine:

Make of it what you will.

Very interesting, the Wii was it's own unique kind of beast.

If you fit a trend line on the 2nd chart it looks flat to slightly down. Not a great sign for the future of gaming, but not exactly doom and gloom either, for the short term at least.

 

[donny2112]

I've stated this earlier in the thread but I don't think it can be over stated that we now have observed multiple cross-gen titles in the U.S. (and UK) with 80% next generation adoption rates. Which seems good at first glance until if you look at those titles in aggregate which says 80% of console gamers who are BUYING software already own a next generation console of their choice... And being there are titles still being announced as cross-gen (which were in development at least a year or two prior to the announcement), I don't think the industry expected this to happen at this speed (or in other words the collapse of last gen's sales). My assumption is the core gamers have mostly moved on and the other market segments are just...gone...from the console space.

Growth is a serious concern her from the hardware side right now.

After the PS1 -> PS2 transition, many publishers regretted shifting to the new gen so quickly, as they felt they left sales on the table from the previous gen. That probably contributed to the PS2's extended lifespan, as publishers made an effort to continue supporting PS2 with games after the 360, etc. came out. It then makes sense that they'd have expected a similar long-tail with the PS360 this time around, so yeah, I'd say it's a completely reasonable conclusion that publishers could be getting a shock at the speed of dropping sales in last-gen. Nice analysis.

 

[ReBurn]

Very interesting, the Wii was it's own unique kind of beast.

If you fit a trend line on the 2nd chart it looks flat to slightly down. Not a great sign for the future of gaming, but not exactly doom and gloom either, for the short term at least.

Wii was the pet rock of consoles.

 

[Imru’ al-Qays]

A couple million?! You're talking about a new market that's made up of 20% of the world's population in one country with a diverse and growing middle class. I think a couple million is a ridiculously low expectation LTD.

If 5% of China's population buys a console, that's 65 million units. We'll obviously revisit this when both products launch properly there.

I absolutely agree that people have a tendency to underestimate growth in console sales from not only China but India, Brazil, etc as incomes rise and bureaucratic impediments fall (China's ban on consoles, Brazil's insane import taxes).

But it's important to realize that in a lot of poorer countries a new home console is unbelievably expensive even for the middle class. The Chinese middle class has been estimated at 300 million people, which looks like a huge number - except those people aren't making nearly as much money as middle class Americans or Europeans or Japanese. The cost of living in China is much lower, so they're counted as middle class. The cost of gaming consoles, however, is relatively uniform across the world: a console will therefore cost proportionally two or three times as much to a middle class Chinese person as to a middle class American. We can expect console penetration to be exponentially lower, before even taking into account factors specific to the Chinese market (competition from knockoff consoles and rampant piracy, lack of interesting games due to stringent censorship, lack of a culture of console gaming that will take many years to cultivate).

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

I kind of feel that's a game that sells with systems as opposed to really selling systems itself, sort of like how LEGO and Skylanders tend to sell best wherever family gamers are at the moment.

Like I think people getting PS4s might pick it up for their kids given the average age of gamers has moved up quite a bit over the years, but I'm not sure that will be the core deciding point for them.

Of course my proposition is rather difficult to prove since the correlation would be there either way.

I agree but the average age of people that game is increasing and many of those people have kids. A more diverse portfolio makes the PS4 an easier sell to the Mrs. So while yes few people are buying a PS4 for LBP3 alone I think it sweetens the deal a creates a very positive perception about the console at large.

 

[Digital-Hero]

I think that's been crystal clear for quite a while now. The Wii U's been tracking significantly behind the Gamecube since the beginning, and there's no plausible reason to think it will change.

Wii U has worse 3rd party support too, so it's not going to happen.

 

[Road]

Yuna HD - 334k
Bravely Localized - 258k
Lightning returns to the shithole she had never left in the first place - 206k

Square Enix's conclusion: Everyone loves Lightning, let's put her in all of our games from now on and retroactively.

Someone should really double check my numbers, my protractor melted together with a triangle so I wasn't able to be really accurate.

hahaha.

Skimming this thread was worth it.

 

[Orthogonal]

Not to pick on the Wii, but it was an anomaly. It's not fair to just remove it entirely as I've done, since it certainly would've sold millions were it a "normal" console, but I can't summon the willpower to extrapolate figures in between Gamecube and Wii U levels to insert there.

I would speculate that if you factored in the "core" Wii audience there would be a 2nd hump very similar to the first on the chart giving a sinusoidal response. This would make sense considering the upgrade cycle for consoles, we are just starting the ramp up for gen 8. If there isn't a ramp up like previous gens that is when the alarm bells should start ringing. It is only about 1 to 2 years away before we should have the data to draw any conclusions.

 

[Hero]

Why are there still people trying to act like the Wii doesn't count for one reason or another?

 

[Aquamarine]

Wii U has worse 3rd party support too, so it's not going to happen.

Take a random month like their 2nd May:


GameCube releases in May 2003, according to NPD:

GC	Disney'S Finding Nemo	THQ			May-03	E	CHILDRENS ENTERTAINMENT	CHILDREN'S GAMES
GC	Enter The Matrix	ATARI			May-03	T	ACTION	GENERAL ACTION
GC	Preview Disc		NINTENDO OF AMERICA	May-03	T	OTHER GAMES/COMPILATIONS	OTHER GAMES
GC	Hulk			VIVENDI UNIVERSAL	May-03	T	ACTION	GENERAL ACTION
GC	Lost Kingdoms Ii	ACTIVISION		May-03	T	ROLE PLAYING	RPG
GC	Shrek Super Party	TDK MEDIACTIVE		May-03	E	FAMILY ENTERTAINMENT	PARTY GAMES
GC	Speed Kings		ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT	May-03	E	RACING	ACTION ORIENTED RACING

Wii U releases in May 2014, according to NPD:

NWU	Mario Kart 8

 

[Orthogonal]

Why are there still people trying to act like the Wii doesn't count for one reason or another?

It's not that it doesn't count, but it is like a 6 sigma outlier giving it a unique role that requires special consideration in evaluating the health of the console games industry.

 

[UnObtainium17]

Great for Wolfenstein, game deserves to sell millions. Best shooter I've played in years.

Looks like I'll be playing Wolfenstein soon.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Why are there still people trying to act like the Wii doesn't count for one reason or another?

Third party development is focused on Sony & MS because Nintendo software sales are dominated by 1st party. Including Nintendo in anything market comp to gauge the overall health of the industry is a bit misleading.

It's not that the Wii doesn't count. But if you're asking if Console gaming is plummeting into disaster as a whole, or if there has been a market correction for just one particular platform... well the conversation is certainly different.

EDIT: Ortho said it earlier and better.

 

[Karsticles]

I know that Nintendo of America is particularly sensitive to NPD data because it really does represent the success of their operations.

NOA has always been the primary subsidiary of NCL...the USA market is one of the most important (if not THE most important) markets for Nintendo.

So the Wii U's dramatic underperformance...I know it's something that Nintendo has noticed and, in reaction to the data, they have adjusted their corporate strategy accordingly.

The gap between the two only seems to grow with time. I understand that the GameCube was more frontloaded with key IPs, but I think we have enough representative data to conclude a sort of permanent disparity between the two.

Luckily, in Japan, the Wii U is doing much better relative to GameCube.

Aquamarine, I really do appreciate what you do in these threads. Thank you.

 

[lyrick]

In the same vein as the charts above, here's the same thing with full year data (obviously can't include 2014 yet):

And again, without the Wii:

Not to pick on the Wii, but it was an anomaly. It's not fair to just remove it entirely as I've done, since it certainly would've sold millions were it a "normal" console, but I can't summon the willpower to extrapolate figures in between Gamecube and Wii U levels to insert there.

So without the Wii, gaming has seen no growth and possibly declines throughout the entire 7th console generation, and the Beginning of Gen 8 is showing a similar trend only this time there is no Wii.

 

[chubigans]

Looks like I'll be playing Wolfenstein soon.

Disclaimer: the first hour drags really badly. Get past that and it gets great.

 

[Taurus]

On the topic of "consoles are dead". Here are a couple of quick charts. The first one is home console sales (no handhelds) for Jan-May of each year going back to 2000. It looks bad:

This second one is the exact same data set, except that I've removed the Wii. Suddenly, everything looks fine:

Make of it what you will.

So the total console sales are about the same, but making games is more expensive than ever, companies use crazy amounts of money for marketing etc. For software sales to go up the necessary amount to create a healthy industry, there should also be growth in hardware sales, which isn't happening.

Sounds like a recipe for a disaster.

Also, why did you leave out handhelds?

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think that's been crystal clear for quite a while now. The Wii U's been tracking significantly behind the Gamecube since the beginning, and there's no plausible reason to think it will change.

Yeah, that's what I'm saying. Some people are still holding out hope, which will end in disappointment.

 

[Captain Smoker]

In the same vein as the charts above, here's the same thing with full year data (obviously can't include 2014 yet):

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a311/leondexter/HomeConsoleSalesbyyear_zps566246c0.jpg

And again, without the Wii:

http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a311/leondexter/HomeConsoleSalesbyyearminusWii_zpsbd87961d.jpg

Not to pick on the Wii, but it was an anomaly. It's not fair to just remove it entirely as I've done, since it certainly would've sold millions were it a "normal" console, but I can't summon the willpower to extrapolate figures in between Gamecube and Wii U levels to insert there.

What's the point, remove the PS2, it sold even more.

 

[Version 3.0]

Why are there still people trying to act like the Wii doesn't count for one reason or another?

Who said that?

It's not fair to just remove it entirely as I've done

As a couple others have said, it requires special consideration. I'd argue that data excluding the Wii is more useful than data including it, as strange as that sounds. But that's not the same thing as saying it "doesn't count".

 

[Hero]

It's not that it doesn't count, but it is like a 6 sigma outlier giving it a unique role that requires special consideration in evaluating the health of the console games industry.

Third party development is focused on Sony & MS because Nintendo software sales are dominated by 1st party. Including Nintendo in anything market comp to gauge the overall health of the industry is a bit misleading.

It's not that the Wii doesn't count. But if you're asking if Console gaming is plummeting into disaster as a whole, or if there has been a market correction for just one particular platform... well the conversation is certainly different.

EDIT: Ortho said it earlier and better.

So we should remove the PS2 and PSX from the equation as well, right? And the NES.

 

[Aquamarine]

Aquamarine, I really do appreciate what you do in these threads. Thank you.

Aww, thanks.