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[famousmortimer]

So is guerrilla games going to get closed for only selling 270k copies? Isn't that pretty bad in an industry where these games need to sell a few million?

Sony nor Microsoft expect to break 2 mil with any of their launch titles. That's just not how the industry works anymore. When systems launched with 5 games total... sure. But not now.

 

[TyrantII]

Judging by this thread there will be some full-scale nuclear meltdowns if/when the xb1 sells a couple hundred K more than the ps4.


Because US > world.

cutting off air dropping whatever they can make is going to hurt. Doesn't help MS has a laser focus blocking US/UK since it's their only real chance.

If you're outside of those territories, it might get very hard to pick up a XB1 start of next year as they try to keep as many shelves stocked in US/UK to sell to people who can't find a PS4.

If Sony was smart, they'd shift more units this way. They're never going to lose the rest of the world this gen, and there's no way MS is going to focus on them with the US/UK at stake.

 

[illmatic22]

So is guerrilla games going to get closed for only selling 270k copies? Isn't that pretty bad in an industry where these games need to sell a few million?

Stop staring at the sun noobasaur.

 

[jcracken]

Here's my prediction

PS4:

Sony's sold probably around 2.2-2.3m (supply constraints restrict sales) and will sell another 500k in Asia.

So probably around 2.7-3m by end of the year. January and February, Driveclub and increased supply will probably increase that 2.8ish million to about 3.2 or 3.3 million. Infamous in March will bring them to 3.5-3.7 mil total.

X1:

MS just announced 2m worldwide and seem to be able to get supply better to where they think is necessary. So I'm guessing they'd get up to 2.5-2.7 by the end of the year, with lead in the US.

In January and February, they have Project Spark and Garden Warfare. Garden Warfare will sell the console to casuals, but not much, but Project Spark might push sales a little bit. I think we'd see MS get to around 3m. In March we have Titanfall, which I could see pushing sales up to about 3.5m.

So I think by March both consoles will be about the same, with slight lead to Sony.

Edit: And to be fair, I own an Xbox One and no PS4. I'd love to see Threshold boost sales as well.

 

[JaggedSac]

Nice sales for both consoles. Next up for me is Project Spark and then Titanfall. Maybe Peggle 2 once my rewards points are deposited. Looking forward to a good 4 years of gaming and media usage from this thing. Congrats to both companies.

 

[CouldBeWorse]

Also I am glad Knack is selling better than their expectations.

Those were some damn low expectations for a first party launch game.

However, after playing most of the game, it seems like it was put together by a small team because the scope and aspirations are pretty damn small, so maybe the budget is small enough that it can survive only selling 250k over its lifetime.

 

[Chobel]

Here's my prediction

PS4:

Sony's sold probably around 2.2-2.3m (supply constraints restrict sales) and will sell another 500k in Asia.

So probably around 2.7-3m by end of the year. January and February, Driveclub and increased supply will probably increase that 2.8ish million to about 3.2 or 3.3 million. Infamous in March will bring them to 3.5-3.7 mil total.

X1:

MS just announced 2m worldwide and seem to be able to get supply better to where they think is necessary. So I'm guessing they'd get up to 2.5-2.7 by the end of the year, with lead in the US.

In January and February, they have Project Spark and Garden Warfare. Garden Warfare will sell the console to casuals, but not much, but Project Spark might push sales a little bit. I think we'd see MS get to around 3m. In March we have Titanfall, which I could see pushing sales up to about 3.5m.

So I think by March both consoles will be about the same, with slight lead to Sony.

Sony said they're aiming to 5 mil by the end of March.

 

[Manmademan]

Here's my prediction

PS4:

Sony's sold probably around 2.2-2.3m (supply constraints restrict sales) and will sell another 500k in Asia.

So probably around 2.7-3m by end of the year.

eh? do you expect zero consoles sold in the US and EU for all of december? this is...questionable.

 

[TheBaronOfNA]

Those were some damn low expectations for a first party launch game.

However, after playing most of the game, it seems like it was put together by a small team because the scope and aspirations are pretty damn small, so maybe the budget is small enough that it can survive only selling 250k over its lifetime.

See posts above.

 

[Father_Brain]

Well yeah, it's not going to be the fucking ps4 with games coming out like crazy. But when people say it's dying that means they will stop producing it or any games for it. There are no plans to stop doing either. When there are I'll let you guys know. All I'm saying is that as of now Sony hasn't walked away from it like Sega did with the dreamcast or nintendo did with the virtual boy.

But is it going to have 1/5th the big titles of the 3ds in '14? Of course not.

So basically, they've come as close as they can to abandoning it without completely ceasing hardware production, shipments, or (OS and indie) support. Yeah, that's pretty clear. though it's not as big a distinction as you think.

 

[ShadowkillXNA]

The negative Nintendo hyperbole and rampant hate in this thread is hilarious. Never change, GAF. Whatever happens to the Wii U, Nintendo's going to be fine.

I do hope these numbers light a fire under some asses over there, though - they need to stop making dumb mistakes like the total shit show the Wii U Virtual Console rollout has been. They have the most incredible, storied brands and back catalog in all of gaming - they need to leverage the hell out of that, for fuck's sake.

Shame so many people are missing out on such an excellent console with great games. 2014 is going to be a fantastic year for Wii U owners with Smash, X, MK 8, DKC TF, and whatever they have in the works that's not been announced yet!

The point, over your head it goes. Yes Nintendo as a company is fine for the moment. However, if they dont find a way to sell the wii u (probably too late for it) or their next home console to a larger audience than just the extreme Nintendo die hard fans, than they may really be doomed. And there is nothing to indicate they have any clue at all how to do that. Thats what the people who mock anyone who has anything remotely negative to say about Nintendo seem not to get.

 

[opticalmace]

PS3, Wii, etc.

PS3 is around 430k, don't think Wii has come up.

 

[nampad]

creamsugar gone and no Tearaway leak?

 

[jcracken]

eh? do you expect zero consoles sold in the US and EU for all of december? this is...questionable.

At worst, I expect 0 because of supply issues, at best I expect 100-200k.

 

[Satchel]

Guess you've seen the non bundle numbers then.

Yep. Not sure then how to take those figures.

Are they good or bad? I mean, they sold over a million consoles and Killzone was the "big ticket" exclusive for it no? But then it was in direct competition with CoD and BF. Seems hard to judge.

 

[demosthenes]

Here's my prediction

PS4:

Sony's sold probably around 2.2-2.3m (supply constraints restrict sales) and will sell another 500k in Asia.

So probably around 2.7-3m by end of the year. January and February, Driveclub and increased supply will probably increase that 2.8ish million to about 3.2 or 3.3 million. Infamous in March will bring them to 3.5-3.7 mil total.

X1:

MS just announced 2m worldwide and seem to be able to get supply better to where they think is necessary. So I'm guessing they'd get up to 2.5-2.7 by the end of the year, with lead in the US.

In January and February, they have Project Spark and Garden Warfare. Garden Warfare will sell the console to casuals, but not much, but Project Spark might push sales a little bit. I think we'd see MS get to around 3m. In March we have Titanfall, which I could see pushing sales up to about 3.5m.

So I think by March both consoles will be about the same, with slight lead to Sony.

Edit: And to be fair, I own an Xbox One and no PS4. I'd love to see Threshold boost sales as well.

You think a plants vs zombies game on a $500 system will sell the game to casuals?

You don't understand how casuals work.

 

[dallow_bg]

215k for Mario vs >270k for KZ?

It's almost the same, c'mon.

Am I missing the joke?

 

[Manmademan]

creamsugar gone and no Tearaway leak?

i can't imagine there would be significant numbers for that. Vita software is pretty heavily digital, isn't it? NPD has no way to track that.

 

[ethomaz]

Here's my prediction

PS4:

Sony's sold probably around 2.2-2.3m (supply constraints restrict sales) and will sell another 500k in Asia.

So probably around 2.7-3m by end of the year. January and February, Driveclub and increased supply will probably increase that 2.8ish million to about 3.2 or 3.3 million. Infamous in March will bring them to 3.5-3.7 mil total.

I think Sony will ship a little more than 3m at the end of the year... Walmart, Target (and I belive the other retails in US) are receiving a new shipment this week.

So 2.5m shipped right now is possible plus 500k for Asia = 3m to be announced soon... more 500k WW for the Christmas.

Well 3.5m for the year.

 

[Yamauchi]

232k for wii u. It needs to find a cheap niche... I think hd remakes is the way to go - cheap to make, don't need large install base to turn profit.


Nothing is dead yet. Hyperbole explosion. This is neogaf forum dot gif file extension.

Xenoblade HD, please.

Btw, Wii U sales are up from 31k in August, about a 7.5-fold increase. The results are still horrible, but I'd say a summer of selling at 1/4 the rate of the GCN is worse than more than 1/2 the rate in November.

 

[Finalizer]

US didn't get even the basic KZ/Knack bundles?

IIRC US didn't get jack shit, just retailer bundles.

 

[ambientmystic]

You think a plants vs zombies game on a $500 system will sell the game to casuals?

You don't understand how casuals work.

Dude. Peggle 2 is the must have game on the Xbone for the casuals.

 

[TheBaronOfNA]

i can't imagine there would be significant numbers for that. Vita software is pretty heavily digital, isn't it? NPD has no way to track that.

Pretty much. Seems to me that the Vita, for better or worse, accomplished what the PSGo failed to do (focus in digital sales and distribution).

 

[famousmortimer]

Those were some damn low expectations for a first party launch game.

However, after playing most of the game, it seems like it was put together by a small team because the scope and aspirations are pretty damn small, so maybe the budget is small enough that it can survive only selling 250k over its lifetime.

It was a very small team. Tiny by AAA standards. People don't seem to get that the game isn't trying to be AC4. Small game by a small team for kids and nostalgic old guys. It will make them some money.

 

[The Antitype]

Gah, I can't read this whole thread, somebody catch me up/confirm a few things the basic premise for me. Is this correct:

PS4 sold more than the Xbox One. Xbox One was on the market for one fewer weeks over the course of the survey period, but was apparently selling at a faster clip than the PS4 on a per-week basis (stock, interest, whatever)...just obviously not fast enough to make up for the extra week the PS4 had. Do I have that right? Is that jist of the reporting so far?

 

[megabytecr]

Nintendo core =/= hardcore market.

We are talking about more F-Zero, Starfox, Timesplitters-esque FPS made by Retro.

Kid Icarus: Uprising is Nintendo's take on the God of War franchise. Yeah.

I want more of the games I list, but help Wii U they will not.

Yep that is what I meant, more Nintendo core titles, less casual stuff (althoug I enjoy some of them). It is not going to sell shitloads but at least regain the core Nintendo fans lost.

 

[Manmademan]

At worst, I expect 0 because of supply issues, at best I expect 100-200k.

it's going to be a lot better than that, rest assured. MS will have more units available in NA, but Sony has several large shipments still to come for US and EU.

 

[Papercuts]

Even though the numbers are atrocious, knowing that PS4/XB1 owners combined have over 5,000 copies of a fucking $50 angry birds game blows my mind.

 

[jcracken]

You think a plants vs zombies game on a $500 system will sell the game to casuals?

You don't understand how casuals work.

Yeah I don't expect it to sell it to the type of casuals who bought the Wii in droves but I'd expect it to sell to Moms and Dads who go to Best Buy and ask about the new consoles and see a game they might be able to play with their kids or college age students who play it at a friend's house and ends up liking it and starts to consider an Xbox One.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Compilation:

• The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds - 11% digital, excluding bundles
• PSV Walking Dead bundle - 29.6% of sales, ~21.5K
• Gold Zelda 3DS, Blue 2DS and Red 2DS all above 100K
• Mario Party: Island Tour < 60K
• Angry Birds: Star Wars - 2.7K

75K > PSV > 70K

PSV memory card LTDs:

• 8GB - 360K
• 16GB - 172K
• 32GB - 167K

XB1 Software > 100K

1. Call of Duty: Ghosts
2. Battlefield 4
3. Dead Rising 3 (>220K, 215K>)
4. Forza Motorsport 5 (<= 200K)
5. Ryse (>185K)
6. Assassin's Creed IV
7. Madden NFL 25
8. NBA 2K14

The Fighter Within < 4K

PS4 Software > 100K

1. Call of Duty: Ghosts
2. Battlefield 4
3. Assassin's Creed IV
4. Killzone: Shadow Fall (<=270K)
5. NBA 2K14
6. Madden NFL 25
7. Need for Speed
8. FIFA 14

100K > Knack > 90K

Call of Duty: Ghosts platform split:
XBO - 6.42%
PS4 - 7.39%
360 - 55.45%
PS3 - 30.42%
Wii U - 0.33%

ACIV, NFS, Madden, NBA 2K14, FIFA and NBA Live splits

Battlefield 4, next gen split:
XBO - 45.65%
PS4 - 54.35%

25K > Mario and Sonic at the Sochi Winter Olympic Games > 20K

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

Killzone sales are actually pretty great considering the supply constraints and the PAL rankings. In line with Killzone 2, and the sales will probably be just as high in December.

It's by far the best selling next gen launch title, and the tie ratio is >25%. How could anyone expect more than that? If anything, it validated Sony's decision to use a FPS exclusive as a launch title again (when MS didn't for the first time ever), because CoD and BF4 are higher on PS4 as well - genre fans are bound to group around similar games.

You're absolutely right, but there's no way they'll ever make any money on the game.

Shadow Fall cost at least $30 million to make (practically all of Guerilla joining development for the last 6 months, plus several outside contractors). I suspect they needed about ~1.5 million units sold to break even, which it could do in lifetime sales but it seems unlikely.

1.5 million units with a 250k debut in the US isn't unreasonable at all. With Knack slacking it's only going to make KZ more the "go to" exclusive until what, March? What people have to remember about these console launches is that basically nothing comes out in December or January, everything that sold well now will almost double in the next two months.

 

[Tagg9]

Sony nor Microsoft expect to break 2 mil with any of their launch titles. That's just not how the industry works anymore. When systems launched with 5 games total... sure. But not now.

You're absolutely right, but there's no way they'll ever make any money on the game.

Shadow Fall cost at least $30 million to make (practically all of Guerilla joining development for the last 6 months, plus several outside contractors). I suspect they needed about ~1.5 million units sold to break even, which it could do in lifetime sales but it seems unlikely.

 

[Papercuts]

Stuff

Woah, KI isn't right. He meant Fighter Within.

Edit: Quick fix, haha. Nevermind.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Actually, it is. a mature industry (as gaming is) does not grow by 10 or 20 percent YOY. The growth is going to be more organic, and mirror population increases.

Mobile is growing much more quickly, because mobile is an immature industry. it's still reaching people who have yet to be reached, but it WILL slow down. anyone who thinks apple and android will still be growing at the rates they are now is in for an extremely rude awakening.



This goes back to what I said before. Wii gaming was most certainly an anomaly- it branched gaming out to a new audience, but this audience wasn't sustainable. you had people buying the system for wii sports and wii fit, who were never going to buy a console again. They were in for the novelty, and once satisfied moved on.

This kind of audience isn't exclusive to gaming, it can happen anywhere, and trying to build a business around them is suicide.



The core audience has grown generation over generation every year since the crash of 1983. there is no possibility for contraction, especially since (as I pointed out) MS and Sony aren't launching in the middle of a worldwide economic collapse this time.

And yet the console still sold over 900 million units of software.

I think those that just bought WiiFit or Sports were not a large share of buyers. The system has an attach rate of 8 games to one system (counting Wii Sports) and 7:1 not counting it. This is shockingly similar to the attach rate of the PS3.

Wii buyers weren't just a fleeting market. Some might have been, but you don't end up with that healthy of a software ecosystem on the backs of fickle buyers. I don't think they are lost, or more accurately I hope they aren't.

And no marginal to nonexistent growth (when factoring population differences) does not make a healthy market. You're talking about a market that isn't implicitly growing at all. Unless you're talking just pure unit totals. You're talking about a stagnating market.

 

[ascii42]

Even though the numbers are atrocious, knowing that PS4/XB1 owners combined have over 5,000 copies of a fucking $50 angry birds game blows my mind.

And Jeff Gertsmann is one of them.

 

[NoirVisage]

creamsugar gone and no Tearaway leak?

someone kinda stole dudes thunder, I personally was looking forward to my first creamsugar Sony NPD reveal, but I don't blame him for bouncing.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Woah, KI isn't right. He meant Fighter Within.

Edit: Quick fix, haha. Nevermind.

Lol yeah. Seemed wrong to me too. But makes perfect sense now.

 

[shandy706]

Exactly as I expected.

Great Job Microsoft and Sony.

I guessed 1.5 mil for Sony with a week head start, and 850k for Microsoft.

Seems I undershot on MS's numbers.

 

[Shikamaru Ninja]

It was a very small team. Tiny by AAA standards. People don't seem to get that the game isn't trying to be AC4. Small game by a small team for kids and nostalgic old guys. It will make them some money.

I'm not sure over a 100 people is a "very small team". AC4 is a different type of game, it launches for like six platforms, and not all credit lists are created the same. LIke thanking 100 PR people from every country, and every QC tester etc.

 

[Pain]

Interesting titanfall facts.

The 360 build is shaping up very nicely.

The xb1 build is looking like it's sticking with 720p.

The PC build will shit on the xb1 build.

Social metrics (twitter mentions, youtube views, etc) as dumb as they are usually are accurate predictors. Tf is trending behind infamous.


There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.


I'm excited as fuck to play titanfall. I will be there day one. But if you think it's going to do more than give the xb1 more than a couple hundred K bump over a couple months you're fooling yourself.

I called it. Game will be barebones. No wonder EA easily signed it over to Microsoft.

 

[JaggedSac]

These software numbers are going to be increasingly less useful as the gen goes on.

 

[Pristine_Condition]

PS4's sold like hot bread in Mexico, everywhere I ask it's sold out until february "with luck".

People really underestimate Mexico as a market. Not a smart mistake to make. From my frequent travels there, I can testify, there's a really vibrant gaming scene there now. And they are much more into the new/current product than they used to be.

 

[BronsonLee]

And Jeff Gertsmann is one of them.

He is not just part of the problem, HE IS THE PROBLEM

He probably bought Fighter Within too

Goddamnit Gerstmann

 

[Manmademan]

You're absolutely right, but there's no way they'll ever make any money on the game.

Shadow Fall cost at least $30 million to make (practically all of Guerilla joining development for the last 6 months, plus several outside contractors). I suspect they needed about ~1.5 million units sold to break even, which it could do in lifetime sales but it seems unlikely.

well, don't forget that the engine they're using (and possibly assets) will be used again across multiple games, so that $30 million cost is likely going to be spread out over the sequel, and possibly the sequel after that.

KZ charting as well as it is (and doing decently, critically at least) positions the sequel better than sony could have hoped, I'm sure. and that's where the real money will be for the franchise. Shadowfall 2:Electric Boogaloo. bank on it.

 

[famousmortimer]

cutting off air dropping whatever they can make is going to hurt. Doesn't help MS has a laser focus blocking US/UK since it's their only real chance.

If you're outside of those territories, it might get very hard to pick up a XB1 start of next year as they try to keep as many shelves stocked in US/UK to sell to people who can't find a PS4.

If Sony was smart, they'd shift more units this way. They're never going to lose the rest of the world this gen, and there's no way MS is going to focus on them with the US/UK at stake.

Yep. I think post Asia launch to Japan launch most systems will be diverted to NA and Western Europe. Because that's the first window they had to do it. Like I said in a previous post, the decisions for these initial shipments were made months and months ago based on predictions. Demand is higher than they predicted. It sucks but it's not like they can just cancel the Asian launch and move those over here.

But, yeah, after that launch... I feel bad for the rest of the world as I assume Sony will be trying to match ms in stuffing US/western EU.

 

[TechnicPuppet]

Interesting titanfall facts.

The 360 build is shaping up very nicely.

The xb1 build is looking like it's sticking with 720p.

The PC build will shit on the xb1 build.

Social metrics (twitter mentions, youtube views, etc) as dumb as they are usually are accurate predictors. Tf is trending behind infamous.


There's also some talk that titanfall 1 is going to feel more like the outline of a game moreso than a full title. It's laying the groundwork.


I'm excited as fuck to play titanfall. I will be there day one. But if you think it's going to do more than give the xb1 more than a couple hundred K bump over a couple months you're fooling yourself.

Sounds made up to me, like yield issues...

 

[LegendofLex]

The worst things about Wii U's failure are not so much that Wii U is failing.

It's that Wii U is the console that Nintendo wanted to make since 2008, and it is failing.
It's that Nintendo is dedicated to pushing 3D Mario more than actually making the core (2D) brand worth anything.
It's that Nintendo does not know how to curate an audience without first leading them to the hardware with 20m+ selling revolutionary titles.
It's that Nintendo has no real idea why their 20m+ selling revolutionary titles sold in the first place. (Or just isn't interested.)

 

[Kenshin001]

Yep. Not sure then how to take those figures.

Are they good or bad? I mean, they sold over a million consoles and Killzone was the "big ticket" exclusive for it no? But then it was in direct competition with CoD and BF. Seems hard to judge.

I think bad. Launch exclusive with no other competing exclusives, biggest console launch in history. If the quality had been there reviews and word of mouth would have driven more sales despite the other shooters.

 

[Elios83]

Gah, I can't read this whole thread, somebody catch me up/confirm a few things the basic premise for me. Is this correct:

PS4 sold more than the Xbox One. Xbox One was on the market for one fewer weeks over the course of the survey period, but was apparently selling at a faster clip than the PS4 on a per-week basis (stock, interest, whatever)...just obviously not fast enough to make up for the extra week the PS4 had. Do I have that right? Is that jist of the reporting so far?

Nope, PS4 has sold more and faster, they sold in the first week what Xbox One has done in two weeks.
It's just that Sony had a huge shipment at launch and then basically nothing until Black Friday, while Xbox had a smaller shipment than Sony at launch (because they launched in Europe in the same day) and then an other big shipment for Black Friday.

 

[TheBaronOfNA]

People really underestimate Mexico as a market. Not a smart mistake to make. From my frequent travels there, I can testify, there's a really vibrant gaming scene there now. And they are much more into the new/current product than they used to be.

Well, at least is way way better than in the Xbox/PS2 era