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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

Chobel

Member
Is the most recent shipment data, next update will come in february with Sony Q3 earnings.

Next public update for investors will come in February, I'm sure Sony have their internal numbers for PS4 shipments at any given time but they don't share it publicly unless it's the quarterly report time.
 

allan-bh

Member
Next public update for investors will come in February, I'm sure Sony have their internal numbers for PS4 shipments at any given time but they don't share it publicly unless it's the quarterly report time.

Of course, but is commom to use the last public number until the next one arrive.
 

Megatron

Member
Knack, Infamous, and Killzone EACH sold over 1 million worldwide...



Knack did great actually....

Yep. It was rough being a PS4 launch owner. I was suckered into KillZone but not Knack. Infamous wasn't bad though, probably still Sony's best first party PS4 game.
 

RayMaker

Banned
What's funny is MCC hasn't had a big impact, or one that I would say was really positive.

And Depending on what Microsoft has planned for Windows 10 and Xbox one, will determine if they are willing to eat margin again next year, because they have the more expensive built box.

People are worried about Halo 5, especially after MCC debacle. Tomb Raider depending on how much they show in previews 2015 will give us a better idea of when to expect the game. But I would assume a game like that will be fall to combat Uncharted.
If Naughty Dog shows an amazing Multiplayer at E3 along with a Single player demo, then it's going to be on HALO 5 for Microsoft.

And your only counting big games, Sony has tons of smaller Mid-tier games like fan Favorite's like Grim Fandango, Broken Age etc.
Those are early 2015, then you have The:Order1886 depending if you are excited or not, then Dying Light for third party, then Bloodbourne in March and MLB the show to follow.

Plus if everything is to be on track Ratchet and Clank would be fall 2015. But it depends on the state of development for that game could be a early 2016 game.
I just see more from SOny and even Nintendo. X chronicles, Zelda, Starfox are 2015 games. Not to mention MArio MAKER.

If the execs at MS are ok with losing another Billion dollars or so then yes we'll see some crazy bundles. But I do know that Xbox is bleeding money hardcore and their clauses in place are keeping PC/Indie titles from filling up the gaps in their lineup.

Smaller games dont shift consoles and with that said X1 while not as strong as the PS4 indie lineup the X1 still has some notable gems such as Ori, cuphead,screamride,lifeless planet, space engineers,inside(timed,from the makers of limbo) etc. Price,advertising, how diverse the game portfolio is and 1st + 3rd blockbusters is what shifts consoles.

In terms of blockbusters sony seem more spread out with the order and bloodbourne coming in Q1, no mans sky coming in Q2 and uncharted for the fall, Talking from a business point a view Is sonys line up really superior? , First you have bloodboune people love it here and if your into dark souls mixed with god of war? style games you will love this, but dark souls sold 1.9 mill on a much larger ps3 install base and darks souls 2 sold 1mill, these dark themed games are just not as commercial as your action/fps/racing games. MLB will probably sell inline with the rest of series about 500-600 thousand The order shares a darker them but is a TPS, though recent reports are not the most positive, I still think it will just surpass the 1 mill, no mans sky looks like an original game that you would normally find on the PC I think it will sell ok but under the 2 previous games, Rachet and clank if good could quite easily be a multi million seller for sony however the previous entrys on PS3 have been selling about 600,000 I will be surprised if it surpasses 1 mill on PS4 and uncharted 4 will probably move 4-5mill sonys killer app, I dont when street fighter is coming but I see it selling over 2 mill on PS4. Looking at sony's blockbuster portfolios diversity you have 2 TPS's,1 platformer, 1 Action,a baseball game, one hippie/GOG space sim, and a fighter, pretty diverse.

On the MS side we have fable coming around Q2 which I dont think will sell anything like the main series did I think it could sell around the 1-2 mill mark,Quantum break I think will sell very well considering the more broader appeal then alan wake, I think around 2 mill, it could also come out in Q2 all we know is that its coming in 2015 and its been in development a long time. In fall for x1 we have forza 6(not confirmed, but come on we know its coming) and halo 5 now this is where MS will really take a lot in the sales, based on the both games history I think its likely each will be selling 4-5 mill each. AS for tomb raider ? who knows I see it doing similar to the first (in respect to the install base) about 1mill. Looking at MS's blockbuster portfolios diversity we have - 3 action(with widely different themes and play mechanics), 1 racer and 1 fps, so in terms of diversity I would say MS is just behind compared to sonys line up.

Basing this on previous sales in there past games Both lines ups seem pretty even in terms of sales and brand power, sony has more games however with Microsoft they have forza and halo in the fall. Both line ups even each other out in terms of impact they will have.
To say one company has an advantage over the other for next year based on what we know is just false, when talking about sales and the best game line up people need to take there own personal opinions out of it, look at previews and reports of upcoming games and look at how previous entrys of the same games have done and how they effected console sales.
I apologize if I have missed any games out.
 

hawk2025

Member
Yep. It was rough being a PS4 launch owner. I was suckered into KillZone but not Knack. Infamous wasn't bad though, probably still Sony's best first party PS4 game.



The best first party PS4 game is Driveclub by a country mile!


I've just seen a leaderboard with 500k+ entries in Driveclub. Assuming around 300k of those were sales, it seems to have done ok for a racer worldwide. Sorry, I know worldwide is off-topic here, but damn that 55k number depressed me :(

It's not like I don't understand that the game launched broken, but it still sucks :(
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
It flopped hard, unfortunately. Significantly down from the last iteration.

See this:

I knew that shit would flop.

They need to reboot the series.

Start from absolutely scratch. Start with the physics. Get it to be fun to play at that basic level. Then build a game around that. Then trash all those previous levels. They keep trying to make everything backwards compatible and its holding them back.
 

hawk2025

Member
Making it backwards compatible absolutely held LBP3 back.


It should have been a PS4 only, start-from-scratch game. The new ideas are brilliant and I love the game. The new characters are great, the gameplay is greatly improved.

But it's missing exactly that extra boost of having a fully focused, clean break from the past. Unfortunate.
 

Hubble

Member
Yeah...PS4 + XB1 LTD gap is down -31% in just one month. It's pretty impressive, actually.

It makes Greenberg's silly comments seem just a tad less silly.

Well, to be fair this has always been the case for consoles so it is not really that surprising. Numbers during this time of year count much more than the nonholiday period.
 

freefornow

Member
They need to reboot the series.

Start from absolutely scratch. Start with the physics. Get it to be fun to play at that basic level. Then build a game around that. Then trash all those previous levels. They keep trying to make everything backwards compatible and its holding them back.

"It's dead Jim"
 
LBP's decline as an IP could've already been felt when LBP2 did not outperform LBP1 in terms of global sales. And this was before Disney Infinity, Skylanders and Minecraft, which has massively increased the competition in the children-focused IP space. (plus they are 3D, open-world, which by design, is more appealing than LBP's 2D platformer)

IMO, the direction for LBP moving forward isn't a reboot, but rather it'll simply live on as a F2P/LBP Hub, and sell packs/costumes/tools/etc.

Media Molecule's new IP + Tearaway will be the future for Sony's children-focused IP space, whereas LBP can be one of the 'low-maintainence IPs' that they keep around, but no longer invest significantly.
 

StevieP

Banned
Making it backwards compatible absolutely held LBP3 back.


It should have been a PS4 only, start-from-scratch game. The new ideas are brilliant and I love the game. The new characters are great, the gameplay is greatly improved.

But it's missing exactly that extra boost of having a fully focused, clean break from the past. Unfortunate.

The ps4 is the wrong system for that kind of software as is.
 

hawk2025

Member
The ps4 is the wrong system for that kind of software as is.
What do you mean?


On the Horizon topic, not knowing the breakdown between platforms complicates matters, but the "larger userbase" argument appears somewhat moot given that the game is also available on the 360.

Edit: Nevermind, seems like the FH1 numbers are not to be trusted.
 

hawk2025

Member
Holy shit drive club is at 55k LTD?? DAMN I'm worried about the future of evolution =/



I have hope that worldwide numbers are MUCH more robust based on the leaderboards.


And that the game will hopefully ride a good wave after the great new updates and, you know, actually working now. Hope it has very long legs.
 

Chobel

Member
Holy shit drive club is at 55k LTD?? DAMN I'm worried about the future of evolution =/

The game sure bombed but It's the US, the racing genre is not popular there. Now if the game also bombed in Europe, then you should start worrying about Evolution.
 

stryke

Member
I have hope that worldwide numbers are MUCH more robust based on the leaderboards.


And that the game will hopefully ride a good wave after the great new updates and, you know, actually working now. Hope it has very long legs.

They are going to have to hope the PS+ edition can drive some sales.
 

hawk2025

Member
No worries, we across the pond seems to like it.


We like it over here too, just... not very many of us :p

I knew MM would survive the Tearaway bomb, but being a bit uncertain over Evolution just really frickin' sucks. I want many more games from them, their philosophy in racer design is just so great for me.


Back to US sales: If the 300k are Bone-only numbers, those are some pretty impressive sales for a racer in the US. Must mean something like 500k worldwide, maybe even a little bit more?


While we are at it then, let me pose a question:
Do we have any support whatsoever over how sales correlate to total number of leaderboard entries? Is 2:1 a decent enough lower bound?
 

Endo Punk

Member
I like the optimism, DC fans. Long legs or not I'm sure it didn't meet expectations. Sony were probably hoping the success of DC would give PD more time to work on GT7. I don't know how DC can be considered successful by any metric. I hate to say it but Evolution probably wont be around this time next year. They are right about one thing though, this is very embarrassing from a studio with such a legacy and a 1 year delay for DC.

LBP bombing isn't a surprise. I can't tell the sequels apart so I doubt the mass market could either, this is one mascot that has worn out his welcome. Take your pals and vamoose.
 

Welfare

Member
Back to US sales: If the 300k are Bone-only numbers, those are some pretty impressive sales for a racer in the US. Must mean something like 500k worldwide, maybe even a little bit more?

For FH2, sales would do much better across the pond compared to the US.
 

hawk2025

Member
For FH2, sales would do much better across the pond compared to the US.



I just don't think that's safe to assume regarding the Xbox One given how the market shares pan out across different markets, though.

We would need to look at how Forza 5 did to start thinking about this. Any info there?


I like the optimism, DC fans. Long legs or not I'm sure it didn't meet expectations. Sony were probably hoping the success of DC would give PD more time to work on GT7. I don't know how DC can be considered successful by any metric. I hate to say it but Evolution probably wont be around this time next year. They are right about one thing though, this is very embarrassing from a studio with such a legacy and a 1 year delay for DC.

LBP bombing isn't a surprise. I think this is one mascot that has worn out his welcome, I can't tell the sequels apart so I doubt the mass market could either. Take your pals and vamoose.


It's not blind optimism, it's trying to understand the full picture. There are extenuating circumstances, like the unfortunate need to change directors midway through the project, that can be taken into account when Sony is making a decision like this. Expectations are adjusted over time -- the marketing push that Driveclub got in October tells me the opposite of what you are saying: They probably already expected that it wouldn't be a hit, certainly NOT something to hold over until Gran Turismo.
 
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