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NPD Sales Results for November 2014 [Up3: NPD Data Error, AC:U #5]

Turn 10 makes Forza. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

353 makes Halo. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

Black Tusk Studios is just an old studio with a new name and have never released a game. They make Gears of War and will be closed down if it isn't profitable.

Rare makes Kinect games. The reanimated corpse of Rare will dance to whatever tune Microsoft fiddles. Let's see what they do next.

Lion Head Studios makes Fable. When the series stops being profitable they'll close it down. My guess is that they'll close it down after Fable Legends regardless.

Lion head are working on at least one new IP and they're the european publishing HQ, they aren't going anywhere. They also assist Rare and other European based studios.
Rare are doing new stuff
Black Tusk and 343 if their key franchises stop being profitable could easily go and do new franchises, they're AAA size studios.
Turn10 could also do different racing games, its not like MS don't have enough franchises: PGR, Midtown Madness, Rallisport Challenge. Its so successful they did a spin-off series

None of those studios are going anywhere and if things became problematic they will just make something else. If you have teams the size of AAA studios that are experienced they can make something else if their big franchise needs a break, making new studios would just be a waste of time
 

Iorv3th

Member
Lion head are working on at least one new IP and they're the european publishing HQ, they aren't going anywhere. They also assist Rare and other European based studios.
Rare are doing new stuff
Black Tusk and 343 if their key franchises stop being profitable could easily go and do new franchises, they're AAA size studios.
Turn10 could also do different racing games, its not like MS don't have enough franchises: PGR, Midtown Madness, Rallisport Challenge. Its so successful they did a spin-off series

None of those studios are going anywhere and if things became problematic they will just make something else. If you have teams the size of AAA studios that are experienced they can make something else if their big franchise needs a break, making new studios would just be a waste of time

Poor Ensemble and Fasa.
 

codhand

Member
Turn 10 makes Forza. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

353 makes Halo. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

Black Tusk Studios is just an old studio with a new name and have never released a game. They make Gears of War and will be closed down if it isn't profitable.

Rare makes Kinect games. The reanimated corpse of Rare will dance to whatever tune Microsoft fiddles. Let's see what they do next.

Lion Head Studios makes Fable. When the series stops being profitable they'll close it down. My guess is that they'll close it down after Fable Legends regardless.

what does your crystal ball say about sony studios?
 
well when has sony ever shut down a fan favorite studio?!?

They do (Liverpool) but it is not as frequent nor as publicized compared to MS.

Microsoft earns its reputation not only from the Xbox brand but from the company's behavior as a whole, unlike Sony (for instance, only idiots use Sony's .... TV or camera branches as "proof" to say "see? PS4 could be a failure". But Microsoft's failures with Surface or Bing somehow affect the Xbox branch's future).

People look at Microsoft's behavior with other studios and other software from the past 3 decades and since there is a pattern of behavior, they feel justified in being worried. Personally, I deal with Microsoft enough at work. They're not entertaining enough to be in charge of my entertainment devices which is why I avoid most of their stuff, but other people like it I guess.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
What? PS3 is dead and 360 more alive than Wii U.

360 sold ~310k so I think this is pretty close of real numbers.
What are you whating about?
LTD's I have are

360 - 41.99m
Wii - 41.67m
PS3 - 25.55m

Missing October data tho.
Your Wii number is definitely too low, but even still the numbers for it and the 360 are tricky. In June the LTD for each console was:

360 - 41.5m
Wii - 41.8m
PS3 - 25.9m

I'll PM you the other details since I'm not sure if it's safe to post more.
 
NPD tracks only US

NPD tracks the USA, Canada, Australia (with GfK), and New Zealand (with GfK).

GfK tracks Austria, Australia (with NPD), New Zealand (with NPD), Germany, Belgium, Netherlands, South Africa, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Denmark, UK, Ireland, Finland, Norway, Russia, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Greece, etc.
 

JaggedSac

Member
Did they? I thought they were making a massive money sink Halo MMO that was going no-where, wanted a big expensive new studio office space and couldn't deliver any of their other projects on-time/budget?

That is correct. And FASA released a failed fps game correct?
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
It would be unusual if it sales were to decline in December.

Since 2007 this has only happened twice (excluding PS4/Xone last year for obvious reasons).

In 2012 PS3 sales fell from Nov to Dec, also happened to the PS3 last year.

This November was a special case due to the heavy promotion, so who knows. But it would be unusual, historically, for sales of Xone to fall from Nov to Dec.
What about December 2013 for PSV after the heavy Black Friday/November promotions? (Was it last year? Had to be...) Perhaps you meant console-only.
 

Faustek

Member
Of course not, he is talking about needing to purchase in game currency using real world currency in order to speed up the time it takes for actions to complete in game.

It's really sad when that is seen as innovation. Still true though, just didn't expect it here :(

Insomniac left Sony because of Sony wanting to force then to give up their own IP.

True but at the same time no.
Sony didn't want to fund them if they didn't get ownership of the IP.
This is something I didn't see from MS either and I'm still applauding them when I remember it.
______________________________________________________________________________________

Those worried about the Vita. You shouldn't be.
Sony is taking a leaf from Nintendo and localizing more than a few 3 party games in China I think they are doing the same for Korea now. Bad thing *imo* is that they aren't doing the same for west. At least not anything they have commented on.

Would love to see Gu Jian Qi Tan, Xian Jian Qi Xia Zhuan, Xuan Yuan Jian, basically all of the Softstar/Domo/Userjoy games heck while we're at it give Softmax/Joymax from Korea a chance here in the west.

Anyway, so no. Sony might be killing first party support for bigger games on the Vita but they are just doing what they always have, third party games.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
It would be unusual if it sales were to decline in December.

Since 2007 this has only happened twice (excluding PS4/Xone last year for obvious reasons).

In 2012 PS3 sales fell from Nov to Dec, also happened to the PS3 last year.

This November was a special case due to the heavy promotion, so who knows. But it would be unusual, historically, for sales of Xone to fall from Nov to Dec.

Hard to imagine Xbone surging past 1.2 mil.

Kinda hard also to see PS4 going past 800k too.
 
Hard to imagine Xbone surging past 1.2 mil.

Kinda hard also to see PS4 going past 800k too.

December is traditionally larger than November.

I know that the holiday has been a tad more front-loaded lately, but PS4 = 800K should be easily attainable.

The Xbox One is a bit more of a tossup, but I have faith in it.
 
The problem is that the November is loaded with variables. A price drop to 349 and then 329 on BF. All the major releases happened in that month. Tons of BF bundles and promotions involving Xbox.

What do we have in December?
 
Well, surely in the case of a 5 week month you consider the averages for weeks instead? Is December always usually a 5 week month for NPDs?

Yes. NPD (and other trackers) follows the 4-5-4 (4-4-5 if you're looking at the calendar year) retail calendar.

Jan = 4 weeks
Feb = 4 weeks
Mar = 5 weeks

Apr = 4 weeks
May = 4 weeks
Jun = 5 weeks

Jul = 4 weeks
Aug = 4 weeks
Sep = 5 weeks

Oct = 4 weeks
Nov = 4 weeks
Dec = 5 weeks
 

Killer

Banned
Turn 10 makes Forza. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

353 makes Halo. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

Black Tusk Studios is just an old studio with a new name and have never released a game. They make Gears of War and will be closed down if it isn't profitable.

Rare makes Kinect games. The reanimated corpse of Rare will dance to whatever tune Microsoft fiddles. Let's see what they do next.

Lion Head Studios makes Fable. When the series stops being profitable they'll close it down. My guess is that they'll close it down after Fable Legends regardless.

That goes for Sony's studios too. Your logic is flawed.
 
Yes. NPD (and every other tracker in the world) follows the 4-4-5 retail calendar (or a variant of it).

Jan = 4 weeks
Feb = 4 weeks
Mar = 5 weeks

Apr = 4 weeks
May = 4 weeks
Jun = 5 weeks

Jul = 4 weeks
Aug = 4 weeks
Sep = 5 weeks

Oct = 4 weeks
Nov = 4 weeks
Dec = 5 weeks

Ah didn't realise that, thanks Aqua.
 

watership

Member
Turn 10 makes Forza. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

353 makes Halo. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

Black Tusk Studios is just an old studio with a new name and have never released a game. They make Gears of War and will be closed down if it isn't profitable.

Rare makes Kinect games. The reanimated corpse of Rare will dance to whatever tune Microsoft fiddles. Let's see what they do next.

Lion Head Studios makes Fable. When the series stops being profitable they'll close it down. My guess is that they'll close it down after Fable Legends regardless.


That is the reality of video game studios. They open and close, they are bought and sold. They are merged and redirected to do other things. Nothing here is out of the ordinary.
 

FrankT

Member
What are you whating about?

Your Wii number is definitely too low, but even still the numbers for it and the 360 are tricky. In June the LTD for each console was:

360 - 41.5m
Wii - 41.8m
PS3 - 25.9m

I'll PM you the other details since I'm not sure if it's safe to post more.

Hmm yea 360 has certainly taken the lead at this point then. I remember PS2 hitting something like 50M in North America in 09 iirc. I have to believe 360 should reach that. We have any Canadian LTD numbers?
 
Yes. NPD (and other trackers) follows the 4-4-5 retail calendar.

Jan = 4 weeks
Feb = 4 weeks
Mar = 5 weeks

Apr = 4 weeks
May = 4 weeks
Jun = 5 weeks

Jul = 4 weeks
Aug = 4 weeks
Sep = 5 weeks

Oct = 4 weeks
Nov = 4 weeks
Dec = 5 weeks

you forgot to add that occasionally January is a 5 week month :p
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Hmm yea 360 has certainly taken the lead at this point then. I remember PS2 hitting something like 50M in North America in 09 iirc. I have to believe 360 should reach that. We have any Canadian LTD numbers?
You're right, the PS2 hit 50 million in NA by the end of 2009. It also sold more than 43 million by that time in the US.

The 360 will most assuredly pass 43 million in the US by 2015/2016. I wouldn't be surprised if 360 sales stopped being leaked before then. It sold over a million this year and will likely only need to sell <700k in 2015 to reach 43 million.
 

Elandyll

Banned
Turn 10 makes Forza. The second the series stops being profitable they'll close it down.

...

I honestly don't think that Turn 10/ Forza is anywhere close to profitable. Not when you factor in that they allegedly have (at least) 3 times the number of employees as Polyphony (and that was back in 2009).
Turn 10 is still around because it obviously is of strategic importance to MS and the Xbox brand (to counter the Gran Turismo juggernaut ... which might not be such a juggernaut anymore. We'll see with GT7)
 
What about December 2013 for PSV after the heavy Black Friday/November promotions? (Was it last year? Had to be...) Perhaps you meant console-only.

Looking at any handheld data makes me sad. Try to avoid it.

Hard to imagine Xbone surging past 1.2 mil.

Kinda hard also to see PS4 going past 800k too.

Totally. It would be unusual for Dec sales to drop, but wow has 2014 been an unusual year.
 

Maledict

Member
Amusing how fast this thread is still going.!

Based on the amazon data posted earlier, are we looking at another big win for the XBone in December then? It was at the top position for Amazon Usa, and the nearest ps4 bundle was at 38 or something depressing.

Shame to think Somys lead in the USA over the entire year could potentially be wiped out in two months.
 

prag16

Banned
Hmm yea 360 has certainly taken the lead at this point then. I remember PS2 hitting something like 50M in North America in 09 iirc. I have to believe 360 should reach that. We have any Canadian LTD numbers?
You think it will reach 50 million U.S. only?? I can't imagine any way the 360 sells anything close to another 8-9mm in the US.
 

ascii42

Member
You think it will reach 50 million U.S. only?? I can't imagine any way the 360 sells anything close to another 8-9mm in the US.

Think he meant North America as a whole. But either way I don't think the 360 will beat the PS2. PS2 topped out around 46-47 million in the US, and it was selling better than the 360 was at this point in its lifespan.
 

EGM1966

Member
Is there a reason why it's in this pattern?
It provides a stable data structure for reporting and in particular LFL analysis as well as forward sales projection.

Normal calendar shifts around and makes comparing sales tricky so retailers use this artificial calendar to solve that.
 
Is there a reason why it's in this pattern?

The NPD Group internally refers to it as 4-5-4 (as do others), but if you go by the calendar year (January - December), it's 4-4-5.

It's done by lots of retail and merchandising companies throughout the industry as historic precedent.

A key advantage of it is that it maintains the same amount of weekends each month...and since weekends are important in retail, it's important to keep them aligned when looking at monthly comparisons.


Another reason is that businesses report quarterly financial statements.

There are 52 weeks in a year, but 1 quarter = 13 weeks.

So, 4-4-5 / 4-5-4 is a reasonable way to break up each quarter because it's consistent.


Accounting benefits:

· The ability to forecast and plan sales in standard weekly buckets of data.

· A consistent 13 week, 91 day quarter to measure quarter over quarter financial and operating results.

· Within manufacturing companies, it aligns operational forecasts and production schedules to the accounting period thereby facilitating the planning process.

· Accounting for Payroll becomes predictably easier, assuming that the pay week begins on a Sunday and ends on a Saturday.

· Generally, accounting for prepaid and accrual transactions becomes easier and less likely to record accounting errors in the general ledger.

· Assembly of annual sales plan and financial budget becomes easier with consistent predictable periods.

· HR in Accounting departments enjoy a more predictable schedule, month over month, year over year.


Accounting disadvantages:

· One disadvantage of the 4-4-5 calendar is that it has 364 days (7 days * 52 weeks), so approximately every 5 years there will be a 53 week year, which can make YOY comparison difficult.

· To change your year end from an IRS standpoint requires filing the appropriate paper work.

· If you have operations around the globe that need to consolidate into your overall financial results, consideration must be given to the impact of the calendar change for operations in other countries. This will likely cause minor closing adjustments for the 4-4-5 periods versus the statutory reporting periods for these other country operations.
 

QaaQer

Member
I thought that they made a ton of "jumping-around kids games" for the Kinect and that most of the criticism leveled at Microsoft's later 360 first-party output was a result of that focus.

They made Kinectamals, Kinect Adventures, Kinect Sports 1 and 2 and a look at the available 360 Kinect games on gamestop.com shows that there are a ton of Microsoft published games.

I meant with the x1. Instead, they have basically killed the kinect + family appeal.
 

Curufinwe

Member
Amusing how fast this thread is still going.!

Based on the amazon data posted earlier, are we looking at another big win for the XBone in December then? It was at the top position for Amazon Usa, and the nearest ps4 bundle was at 38 or something depressing.

Shame to think Somys lead in the USA over the entire year could potentially be wiped out in two months.

You think Xbone will outsell PS4 by 700k+ in December?
 
I don't understand why people are cheerleading Microsoft's high sales. They got there the same way they always do: vacant library all year until the holidays, and then end-load it with marketing, bundles, and a few exclusives. This behavior was a little more bearable later in the 360's life when 360 was getting superior multiplats, a ton of indie exclusives, and had a massive library. None of those aspects apply to the Xbox One, yet they're still using the same methodology.

If 2015 is a repeat of 2014 between the X1 and PS4 (i.e. PS4 has a steady stream of games throughout the year but X1 does not) that would be sad. If Holiday 2015 is a repeat of 2014 (i.e. Microsoft gets great sales due to steep price cuts, bundling, and advertising) that would also be sad because Microsoft will likely continue that behavior.
 
I don't understand why people are cheerleading Microsoft's high sales. They got there the same way they always do: vacant library all year until the holidays, and then end-load it with marketing, bundles, and a few exclusives. This behavior was a little more bearable later in the 360's life when 360 was getting superior multiplats, a ton of indie exclusives, and had a massive library. None of those aspects apply to the Xbox One, yet they're still using the same methodology.

If 2015 is a repeat of 2014 between the X1 and PS4 (i.e. PS4 has a steady stream of games throughout the year but X1 does not) that would be sad. If Holiday 2015 is a repeat of 2014 (i.e. Microsoft gets great sales due to steep price cuts, bundling, and advertising) that would also be sad because Microsoft will likely continue that behavior.

Like the old saying goes: 'If it ain't broke, don't fix it.'
 
NPD thread... studios purchased/internally built listwars...

Anyway, in the more recent years while December is still normally larger than November, I think the weekly average has moved towards favouring Nov. But I don't know if this was somewhat cyclical and to do with end of gen Black Friday bargains being better than early gen for instance.

But I could see that occurring this Dec, where absolute numbers are higher but weekly averages are slightly lower.

Also, that PSV number... so it was essentially flat from October with the holiday season and Black Friday... if there was any more need of a sign that it's dead.
 
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