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[Steverulez]

You're really overestimating QB appeal, Halo 5 even 6 month later will have more appeal to console buyers.

And these two bundles have Gears UE in common, a popular (kinda) MP shooter.

Yes a lot of bundles, but the focus is one or two bundles. They're not mass bundling everything.

As the sales of consoles drop off towards the summer months I don't really see Microsoft focusing on keeping their Halo 5 figures afloat when its down so much and they're getting new IPs out. I'd have thought it would make much more sense to stick a Halo 5 bundle out pre-Division and QB in January or whenever (depending on what stock they have left over from their masses of holiday bundles)

And the bundles they are focusing on the most do include all their own IPs, I think there is a pattern emerging here. They had TR and Fallout marketing yet didn't choose to make those their base models like they did for AC last year.

quantum break comes out in April, and last year MS did the MCC bundle in early March. So Halo 5 is probably going to be the main bundle game by default for their mass spring/summer bundles.

Plus while bundling QB would be good, it's more lucrative to bundle Halo just to keep the population high and make req money.

MCC was broken until March, that was the earliest they could bundle it and outside of three smaller titles - Screamride, Ori and State of Decay YOSE (and I don't think the retail ones did good numbers iirc) they had nothing at all in that period to release, so focusing on a now fixed MCC made a lot more sense then than overshadowing your other new releases next year

 

[Cow Goes Moo]

The film and budget price would do well for R&C i'd have said

that's the hope, but the movie launches the 29th while the game comes out the 12th, so it won't do much for the game launch I'd imagine

Ratchet at $39.99 will sell much higher than that.

care to wager?

 

[CosmicQueso]

Ratchet at $39.99 will sell much higher than that.

Oh?

How much higher?

No R&C game debuted with month 1 sales near that mark on PS3.

75-100k tops.

 

[blakep267]

As the sales of consoles drop off towards the summer months I don't really see Microsoft focusing on keeping their Halo 5 figures afloat when its down so much and they're getting new IPs out. I'd have thought it would make much more sense to stick a Halo 5 bundle out pre-Division and QB in January or whenever (depending on what stock they have left over from their masses of holiday bundles)

And the bundles they are focusing on the most do include all their own IPs, I think there is a pattern emerging here. They had TR and Fallout marketing yet didn't choose to make those their base models like they did for AC last year.



MCC was broken until March, that was the earliest they could bundle it and outside of three smaller titles - Screamride, Ori and State of Decay YOSE (and I don't think the retail ones did good numbers iirc) they had nothing at all in that period to release, so focusing on a now fixed MCC made a lot more sense then than overshadowing your other new releases next year

They could've mass bundled evolve. Would've helped the community out a lot more of they did

 

[Chobel]

As the sales of consoles drop off towards the summer months I don't really see Microsoft focusing on keeping their Halo 5 figures afloat when its down so much and they're getting new IPs out. I'd have thought it would make much more sense to stick a Halo 5 bundle out pre-Division and QB in January or whenever (depending on what stock they have left over from their masses of holiday bundles)

And the bundles they are focusing on the most do include all their own IPs, I think there is a pattern emerging here. They had TR and Fallout marketing yet didn't choose to make those their base models like they did for AC last year.

If Halo 5 bundle can't keep the sales momentum, nothing else can, specially not SP only games.

And the pattern here is bundling popular games, QB won't be one of them (alright maybe if it gets +95 MC, but without MP and "open world", I can't see it getting that high)

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Alan Wake and Alan Wake American Nightmare on the 360 and PC.

Yes, Alan Wake and American Nightmare. 2.8m on Steam.

Thanks.

 

[Guymelef]

I can't see R&C doing more than 150K.

300k confirmed.

 

[Steverulez]

If Halo 5 bundles can't keep the sales momentum, nothing else can, specially not SP only games.

And the pattern here is bundling popular games, QB won't be one of them (alright maybe if it gets +95 MC, but without MP and "open world", I can't see it getting that high)

Didn't you just predict Quantum Break would hit 400k+ first month? Isn't that pretty popular?

 

[benny_a]

Didn't you just predict Quantum Break would hit 400k+ first month? Isn't that pretty popular?

He did predict that, but by predicting he has doomed it and now he is already compensating for his prediction that doomed the game.

I think this should be called Chobel's cat or Chobel's uncertainty principle.

 

[Shin-Ra]

Quantum Break will sell between 150 and 350K first month in the US, proportional to the size of Shawn Ashmore's noggin on the cover.

 

[LegendofDragoonLives]

I can't see R&C doing more than 150K.

Wanna bet it does? ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

 

[Chobel]

Didn't you just predict Quantum Break would hit 400k+? Isn't that pretty popular?

Nope, not popular at all, not to the point where it outdo Halo appeal. It's good for a new IP, but for console mover it's nothing to write about. Plus the game won't have legs (linear SP only game)

 

[Steverulez]

Nope, not popular at all. It's good for a new IP, but for console mover it's nothing to write about. Plus the game won't have legs (linear SP only game)

"Not popular at all", jesus, what a bomba and its not even out!

 

[Chobel]

"Not popular at all", jesus, what a bomba and its not even out!

I clarified it, not Halo 5 popular.

 

[Guymelef]

Greenberg on DualShockers...

G: At the end of the day there’s only so much money in people’s pockets, after all.

AG: Yeah, that is the challenge. We all know that, and so you’re right. You know, ultimately people will choose their favorite depending on what type of genres, reviews, or what their friends are playing, but so far we’ve been really pleased with Tomb Raider, and I know even over Black Friday it did very well, we’ve heard some very nice feedback from some of our top retailers. So we’ll continue to watch how it performs, but the game has definitely been delivering for us.

 

[Ricky_R]

Greenberg on DualShockers...

Imagine Yoshida saying the same about The Order...

 

[donny2112]

So the 3DS only sold ~350K? That is really...really bad for Nintendo.

Yes, it is. The system is only 4.5 years old, but it's selling like a system a year after the successor comes out. A huge portion of that, I think, is that it's priced out of its market. Regardless of the efficacy of tablets to children's gaming to satisfy, if the system was $100 with mostly $30 games aimed at kids (and not just the ugly step-child 2DS at that level), it'd probably be doing a lot better. Not DS/GBA levels (that period has passed with tablets taking a lot of the market for keep-the-kid-busy devices), but a lot better than they are. That's part of why I thought the $125 3DSXL at Wal-Mart would make a bigger splash than it did, but I guess it wasn't enough (or known enough) on its own. Family-focused gaming (i.e. Nintendo's sweet spot) needs to have family-focused pricing. Spending $200 on a system that you then give to a child to play with in their hands, get dirty, drop, and flat out lose is just not something that is an easy sell to most, I think. Imagine if Nintendo was selling a $75 3DSXL everywhere on Black Friday (from an MSRP of $100 or so). That's a whole lot easier to imagine giving to a kid who's quite likely to lose it, in my opinion.

GBA launched at $100. DS was very slow until the DSLite, which launched at the already reduced price of $130 (after the DSphat price drop in August 2005 b/c of its slow start). 3DS had a big drop to $180 at the beginning for slow sales, but now the standard price is $200 for the system. It hasn't dropped like it needed to for wider adoption with families, in my opinion.

 

[Steverulez]

I clarified it, not Halo 5 popular.

What was the non-bundle number for Halo 5 again in October? Your 400k was not that far under half, i'd say it was worth a punt to see how far they could push it given the success you expect from it and lack of success for Halo 5 compared to 3/Reach/4

 

[Ryng_tolu]

What was the non-bundle number for Halo 5 again in October?

842,000

 

[hodayathink]

But that's not really what the context around the discussion was about. The discussion centered around how big we think UC4 would be with some estimations about WW numbers, while some only focused on US numbers. All numbers were made up.

A statement that says that WW plays a bigger role for Sony then others is completely in line with that, especially if your trying to determine how big an IP is.

Ignoring WW in this instance is limiting the discussion for no meaningful purpose other then to follow the thread title. Which we don't exactly do all the time anyways.

But what he's saying is that we know that Sony is bigger WW, but we don't know which of their specific IPs are. For example, if an edition of MLB: The Show bombed, you wouldn't say that worldwide might save it. Without actually knowing the past ratio of US:WW sales on a title/series, we can't really say how much of a factor WW will be for any specific title.

 

[Chobel]

What was the non-bundle number for Halo 5 again in October? Your 400k was not that far under half, i'd say it was worth a punt to see how far they could push it given the success you expect from it and lack of success for Halo 5 compared to 3/Reach/4

Halo 5 will stay popular for a longer time because it's a big brand and it has an excellent MP, can't say the same about QB.

 

[J_Viper]

Isn't Quantum Break in May?

 

[Y2Kev]

Ratchet will do 60k.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Ratchet will do 60k.

This is all my fault. I caved and pre-ordered it digitally

 

[Steverulez]

Halo 5 will stay popular for a longer time because it's a big brand and it has an excellent MP, can't say the same about QB.

This just seems like a come down from a far too generous prediction. Halo 5s numbers were way down for the franchise, if Quantum Break comes in with sales of 400k+ (your prediction not mine), you can bet your arse MS are going to double down on trying to push QB forwards and drive that number up as much as they can regardless of it being a single player title.

Also given The Division is launching in March as you pointed out, wouldnt MS be better off focusing on that if they are going to push bundles of a multiplayer title? Perhaps that is a better dynamic than a dwindling Halo...

Isn't Quantum Break in May?

5th April

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Isn't Quantum Break in May?

5 April.

This is all my fault. I caved and pre-ordered it digitally

600k first month including digital then.

 

[DriftingSpirit]

Do we know what the last mainline Ratchet game did?

 

[Y2Kev]

Do we know what the last mainline Ratchet game did?

Probably like 2k, which is 1k more than fuse and 1k less than sunset overdrive.

 

[noobie]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

 

[SneakersSO]

RE: QB's potential launch performance - the key thing to keep in mind when trying to draw some conclusion based on Remedy past performance on Xbox is that, the 360 had a far, far larger install base on 360, and that install base actually purchased more games in larger quantities outside of the MS staples (Halo, Forza, Gears, etc.).

If you compare the success the non-tentpole MS releases have had this generation compared to when MS was launching new IP on the 360 (Dead Rising 1, Crackdown 1, Gears), its obvious that larger install-base the 360 had contributed to those titles taking off early on. With all that said, I really don't think QB will launch to tremendous success, especially after seeing how RoTR did on X1.

As for what the non-holiday bundle MS might push, I highly doubt MS is going to go with a bundle for QB over Halo 5, for a variety of reasons. For starters, QB launches in April; I doubt MS is going to wait 4 months into the year to launch a Q1/Q2 bundle. Past moves in this regard show that the Q1/Q2 bundle is typically a game that is already available at the end of the year, the year prior. In 2015, we got the AC:Unity bundle, followed by the MCC Bundle for several months.

Secondly, and more importantly, its more to MS's benefit if they push Halo 5. Not only do they want to continue to highlight Halo as a franchise to fans who may have left the platform in recent years, but Halo 5 is going to need to sustain its MP userbase with influxes of new users to continue to make both its already implemented monetization, and its free-DLC post-launch support as meaningful as possible.

Unless Remedy announces some RoTR-like modes that allow QB to be as monetized as Halo 5 is, then I don't see what the benefit is in putting out a QB bundle over a Halo 5 bundle.

 

[Chobel]

This just seems like a come down from a far too generous prediction. Halo 5s numbers were way down for the franchise, if Quantum Break comes in with sales of 400k+ (your prediction not mine), you can bet your arse MS are going to double down on trying to push QB forwards and drive that number up as much as they can regardless of it being a single player title.

Well, they can try, but they'll fail miserably. For a linear SP game only, you only have a short window sales.

Also given The Division is launching in March as you pointed out, wouldnt MS be better off focusing on that if they are going to push bundles of a multiplayer title? Perhaps that is a better dynamic than a dwindling Halo...

Yes, they'll do the Division bundle for two or three months, then after that Halo 5 bundle (by that time unless QB is media darling and +90 MC game, most people will have forgotten about it)

 

[MisterR]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

Slim. Christmas shopping is largely over at that point and Ps4 has been outselling Xbox the entire year at a higher price

 

[Primethius]

But what he's saying is that we know that Sony is bigger WW, but we don't know which of their specific IPs are. For example, if an edition of MLB: The Show bombed, you wouldn't say that worldwide might save it. Without actually knowing the past ratio of US:WW sales on a title/series, we can't really say how much of a factor WW will be for any specific title.

It's a prediction on an upcoming title. Like... we don't have a lot of data aside from past performance anyways.

 

[Birgitte2004]

Do people even really know QB exists? It just doesn't seem to be on the radar of people outside of the hyper-informed.

So to me it depends on how big the marketing push is to whether it even has a shot to get to a number like 400K.

 

[Chobel]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

100%

Spoiler

(I'm sure that's what you want to hear)

 

[Guymelef]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

Don't be afraid.

 

[mejin]

He did predict that, but by predicting he has doomed it and now he is already compensating for his prediction that doomed the game.

I think this should be called Chobel's cat or Chobel's uncertainty principle.

Chobel's Law.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

Translation: Will you guys give me an answer that I want to hear?

 

[mejin]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

 

[Steverulez]

RE: QB's potential launch performance - the key thing to keep in mind when trying to draw some conclusion based on Remedy past performance on Xbox is that, the 360 had a far, far larger install base on 360, and that install base actually purchased more games in larger quantities outside of the MS staples (Halo, Forza, Gears, etc.).

If you compare the success the non-tentpole MS releases have had this generation compared to when MS was launching new IP on the 360 (Dead Rising 1, Crackdown 1, Gears), its obvious that larger install-base the 360 had contributed to those titles taking off early on. With all that said, I really don't think QB will launch to tremendous success, especially after seeing how RoTR did on X1.

As for what the non-holiday bundle MS might push, I highly doubt MS is going to go with a bundle for QB over Halo 5, for a variety of reasons. For starters, QB launches in April; I doubt MS is going to wait 4 months into the year to launch a Q1/Q2 bundle. Past moves in this regard show that the Q1/Q2 bundle is typically a game that is already available at the end of the year, the year prior. In 2015, we got the AC:Unity bundle, followed by the MCC Bundle for several months.

Secondly, and more importantly, its more to MS's benefit if they push Halo 5. Not only do they want to continue to highlight Halo as a franchise to fans who may have left the platform in recent years, but Halo 5 is going to need to sustain its MP userbase with influxes of new users to continue to make both its already implemented monetization, and its free-DLC post-launch support as meaningful as possible.

Unless Remedy announces some RoTR-like modes that allow QB to be as monetized as Halo 5 is, then I don't see what the benefit is in putting out a QB bundle over a Halo 5 bundle.

I already said they could launch a Halo 5 bundle earlier, MCC was only so late compared to launch because it didn't work properly before that and they pretty much had no choice but to wait until they did and that was in a period where they had no new AAA releases either.

For what its worth, I think Microsoft should definitely get a Halo 5 bundle in at their base price, looking back it was probably a mistake they didn't do it this holiday imo but the benefit of pushing Quantum Break is that they have made various new IPs dating back a number of years (it depends how far you want to go back to be honest) and haven't turned many of them into franchises which is what they are clearly trying to do with this next set of new IPs they have coming over the next year or so.

Based on that and assuming the game(s) are considered good enough to push as well as being their own IP (not owned by the developer or otherwise) it makes sense to push something new.

Halo shouldn't be ignored of course nor will it be but given they actually have titles releasing before the holidays next year it could see a difference to last year. They will probably end up with a lot of excess stock of their holiday bundles again too which would mean they might not push another bundle out before their other marketing/exclusive releases.

I think most are in agreement TR would have done better with a different release date... quite how much better I don't know, better than 200k across both anyway.

 

[hawk2025]

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

5OO/5OO, I would say.

 

[Rymuth]

Chobel's Law.

You should trademark that ASAP.

 

[Boombloxer]

Well the first Uncharted didn't "light the sales charts on fire"

It sold around 4M, which is more than most of the others in that first wave of exclusives.

What are the chances that XBO SKU will surpass PS4 SKU after 19th of December (End of Sony Promotion), in retail and online?

Slim. Christmas shopping is largely over at that point and Ps4 has been outselling Xbox the entire year at a higher price

100%

Spoiler

(I'm sure that's what you want to hear)

Don't be afraid.

Beaten to death, but yea. The Star Wars wom is looking pretty strong at this point.

 

[David Ricardo]

Yes, it is. The system is only 4.5 years old, but it's selling like a system a year after the successor comes out. A huge portion of that, I think, is that it's priced out of its market. Regardless of the efficacy of tablets to children's gaming to satisfy, if the system was $100 with mostly $30 games aimed at kids (and not just the ugly step-child 2DS at that level), it'd probably be doing a lot better. Not DS/GBA levels (that period has passed with tablets taking a lot of the market for keep-the-kid-busy devices), but a lot better than they are. That's part of why I thought the $125 3DSXL at Wal-Mart would make a bigger splash than it did, but I guess it wasn't enough (or known enough) on its own. Family-focused gaming (i.e. Nintendo's sweet spot) needs to have family-focused pricing. Spending $200 on a system that you then give to a child to play with in their hands, get dirty, drop, and flat out lose is just not something that is an easy sell to most, I think. Imagine if Nintendo was selling a $75 3DSXL everywhere on Black Friday (from an MSRP of $100 or so). That's a whole lot easier to imagine giving to a kid who's quite likely to lose it, in my opinion.

GBA launched at $100. DS was very slow until the DSLite, which launched at the already reduced price of $130 (after the DSphat price drop in August 2005 b/c of its slow start). 3DS had a big drop to $180 at the beginning for slow sales, but now the standard price is $200 for the system. It hasn't dropped like it needed to for wider adoption with families, in my opinion.

I think the main problem is people are giving their old phones to their kids to play free games on them. So that's a zero cost rival to 3DS.

 

[SneakersSO]

I already said they could launch a Halo 5 bundle earlier, MCC was only so late compared to launch because it didn't work properly before that and they pretty much had no choice but to wait until they did and that was in a period where they had no new AAA releases either.

For what its worth, I think Microsoft should definitely get a Halo 5 bundle in at their base price, looking back it was probably a mistake they didn't do it this holiday imo but the benefit of pushing Quantum Break is that they have made various new IPs dating back a number of years (it depends how far you want to go back to be honest) and haven't turned many of them into franchises which is what they are clearly trying to do with this next set of new IPs they have coming over the next year or so.

Based on that and assuming the game(s) are considered good enough to push as well as being their own IP (not owned by the developer or otherwise) it makes sense to push something new.

Halo shouldn't be ignored of course nor will it be but given they actually have titles releasing before the holidays next year it could see a difference to last year. They will probably end up with a lot of excess stock of their holiday bundles again too which would mean they might not push another bundle out before their other marketing/exclusive releases.

I think most are in agreement TR would have done better with a different release date... quite how much better I don't know, better than 200k across both anyway.

Here's the thing - QB really doesn't have much in its corner for it potentially turning into a franchise. And MS has helped launch at least two new IP this generation, and neither of which are showing any signs (either sales or a cult-like following) that they will become franchises either; SSOD & Ryse. And just going by various social metrics or even online retailers, QB isn't generating the kind of buzz that would signify that it has this innate franchise potential.

Also, Remedy as a studio takes wayyyy too long in developing their games. QB is launching about 7 weeks shy of 3 years from when it was announced, much less when it started development. Considering most of Remedy's fanbase is clamoring for an Alan Wake 2, I think the only way we ever see QB turn into a franchise is if QB does comparable numbers to AW on Xbox 360. As far as marketing goes, I think MS did a poor job in not giving Remedy a E3 gameplay stage demo at this year's E3 conference. The gameplay demo MS did for Alan Wake when it had its gameplay debut went a long way in helping sell that franchise to the 360's more receptive audience.

 

[ecierif]

Tomb Raider sold 640,000 first month, 346,000 on 360, and 294,000 on PS3.

Huh? Square said it sold 3.4 million in its launch month and immediately became the fastest-selling TR, and yet it still didn't meet their sales expectations.

 

[stryke]

Huh? Square said it sold 3.4 million in its launch month and immediately became the fastest-selling TR, and yet it still didn't meet their sales expectations.

We're in an NPD thread buddy.

 

[Steverulez]

Here's the thing - QB really doesn't have much in its corner for it potentially turning into a franchise. And MS has helped launch at least two new IP this generation, and neither of which are showing any signs (either sales or a cult-like following) that they will become franchises either; SSOD & Ryse. And just going by various social metrics or even online retailers, QB isn't generating the kind of buzz that would signify that it has this innate franchise potential.

Also, Remedy as a studio takes wayyyy too long in developing their games. QB is launching about 7 weeks shy of 3 years from when it was announced, much less when it started development. Considering most of Remedy's fanbase is clamoring for an Alan Wake 2, I think the only way we ever see QB turn into a franchise is if QB does comparable numbers to AW on Xbox 360. As far as marketing goes, I think MS did a poor job in not giving Remedy a E3 gameplay stage demo at this year's E3 conference. The gameplay demo MS did for Alan Wake when it had its gameplay debut went a long way in helping sell that franchise to the 360's more receptive audience.

Alan Wake did 150k on its US opening, I don't think much helped it sell at the beginning to be honest, they killed it pretty well with what it launched against. Alan Wake was also included in the 360 holiday bundle that year.

Microsoft didn't own Sunset Overdrive or Ryse which I suspect was part of their reluctance to give them a bigger push and at the very least bigger issues with Crytek over Ryse. Quantum Break got a big Gamescom push, has had Edge and Game Informer coverage in recent months plus another trailer at TGAs, we'll have to see how much they ramp it up over the next few months, I'm sure there will be plenty of footage and coverage as well as proper hands-on previews for the game which outside of Game Informer we haven't had yet.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Huh? Square said it sold 3.4 million in its launch month and immediately became the fastest-selling TR, and yet it still didn't meet their sales expectations.

Welcome in the NPD thread.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

Slim. Christmas shopping is largely over at that point and Ps4 has been outselling Xbox the entire year at a higher price

What? Saturday before Christmas is one the busiest days of December in retail.