Do people think the response of the Xbox user base will be more or less the same for Tomb Raider and Quantum Break? I mean, they're very comparable on paper in that they're narrative driven TPS games with no multiplayer.
I agree that bundling will help its long term prospects but I honestly can't see the individual sales being much better than TR (proportionate to the sales volume in the months each launches). Unless the specific differences (male/female MC, Adventure/Sci Fi genre etc) will make it more appealing to Xbox MAUs.
Furthermore, do people think that this game will be given the go ahead for a PC port after launch as part of MS unification process/lip service? I think potentially disappointing sales as well as Remedys relatively strong PC following make it a decent candidate.
In North America, Quantum Break should do better than Rise of the Tomb Raider for the sheer fact that it's not launching against a gigantic franchise. Of course, if an exec at Xbox gets the brilliant idea of launching it earlier to compete with UC4 then they're going to have a bad time.
There's enough interest in the game (thanks to the TV show premise) that even if the reviews are poor (Remedy can make great games so this is unlikely) the game will still find an audience bigger than RotTR. How much bigger? I think 200k more than TR is easily achievable, so a minimum of 400k. A lack of competitive multiplayer will limit the game's appeal, but I don't think the inclusion of multiplayer would automatically make it attract the Gears crowd.
Bundling the game makes a lot of sense. Most Microsoft IP's (Minecraft being the exception) will need bundling this gen to avoid underwhelming results at retail. If you're Microsoft and you want QB to be a franchise? Bundle it. Don't waste time and money on a custom console -- just pack a digital download code for the game in a box, slap a Quantum Break image on the front of the box, and ship that thing to retail.
Although Remedy does have ties to the PC market, I don't think their following on PC makes QB a candidate for a PC port. Let's be honest: the only way a PC port will exist is if Remedy successfully negotiated for a PC version in their deal with Microsoft. Microsoft's track record on what they say they're going to do on PC vs what they actually do on PC is abysmal, so it would take
really really disappointing sales for Xbox to say "let's make a PC port". It's been mentioned before, but the Xbox guys view the PC platform as competition to their business. They will only support the PC when a) they are contractually obligated to do so and b) they believe they can 'translate' a PC gamer into a Xbox gamer.
Note: My sales predictions are for NA. I don't think QB will outdo RotTR in EU, JP, and other territories. I think it takes a special kind of IP to break-through globally, and to be frank, I haven't seen anything in QB (yet) that has made me go "this could crush it in Spain/Russia/Japan/Peru/Australia etc."