even if PS4 sells only 5 million units in Japan, this only represents a drop of 5 million from the PS3
Japan isn't nearly as relevant as you think it is for consoles any more, sorry
Yup, 360's success is proof of that.
even if PS4 sells only 5 million units in Japan, this only represents a drop of 5 million from the PS3
Japan isn't nearly as relevant as you think it is for consoles any more, sorry
Yup, 360's success is proof of that.
Okay, so Japan doesn't matter anymore as one of the three major console territories and the PS4 is guaranteed to sell 5 million units there anyway because reasons.
So what sales figures do the PS4 and Xbone need to beat this holiday in NA to prove there's nothing wrong with the console market? 3 million a piece, November + December?
Just so we can adhere some of these goalposts.
"3 major console territories?" give me a fucking break, UK alone was roughly equal to Japan last gen for combined console sales, and is probably going to be bigger this gen
Okay, so Japan doesn't matter anymore as one of the three major console territories and the PS4 is guaranteed to sell 5 million units there anyway because reasons.
So what sales figures do the PS4 and Xbone need to beat this holiday in NA to prove there's nothing wrong with the console market? 3 million a piece, November + December?
Just so we can adhere some of these goalposts.
Hasn't most of nintendo's traditional userbase gone to Xbone/PS4? Can both Xbone and PS4 sell 150 million together?
Traditional userbase?Hasn't most of nintendo's traditional userbase gone to Xbone/PS4? Can both Xbone and PS4 sell 150 million together?
"3 major console territories?" give me a fucking break, UK alone was roughly equal to Japan last gen for combined console sales, and is probably going to be bigger this gen
Why don't you give us some numbers if you are saying PS4\X1 in trouble .
If neither console breaks a million in either November or December there is almost zero chance they make up for any shortfall in Japan and the loss of the Wiis expanded audience.
Traditional userbase?
There is little to no chance of that happening.
So failing to hit that incredibly low target will have you admit that there is a fucking real problem?
The collapse of Japan as a major territory doesn't actually refute my belief that the console games industry is in trouble.
If neither console breaks a million in either November or December there is almost zero chance they make up for any shortfall in Japan and the loss of the Wiis expanded audience.
Yeah, let's see how that goes.
We're not looking at an 8 year long generation.
EDIT:
I mean, let's put that into perspective; if the PS3 doesn't sell another unit, at its current rate it will take the PS4 19 years to match the PS3s sales in Japan
Are you kidding me?
So failing to hit that incredibly low target will have you admit that there is a fucking real problem?
The collapse of Japan as a major territory doesn't actually refute my belief that the console games industry is in trouble.
If neither console breaks a million in either November or December there is almost zero chance they make up for any shortfall in Japan and the loss of the Wiis expanded audience.
The collapse of Japan as a major territory doesn't actually refute my belief that the console games industry is in trouble.
If neither console breaks a million in either November or December there is almost zero chance they make up for any shortfall in Japan and the loss of the Wiis expanded audience.
The collapse of Japan as a major territory doesn't actually refute my belief that the console games industry is in trouble.
Would hitting that target make you admit there is no problems? I know, I know, you wouldn't.
There is a middle road between everything is fine and doom.
They will hit that target.
Will you come back to admit you were wrong and there are no real fucking problems?
don't you try and shift the discussion from "PS4 won't outsell PS3" to "this generation will be smaller than the last one"
No; like I said above - if they do 3 million apiece over 2 months, then I'll eat crow and admit things aren't as bad as I think.
If they hit 1 million they are as bad as I think.
Less than a million, and they're much worse.
Why are none of you "everythings great!" folks prepared to put any numbers down?
I would say this gen it's easier to make profit.
Yes development costs rise but you can make more money thanks to DD and porting cost should be cheaper.
However, this depends on what one considers the traditional market. Wii was far from a traditional console with the traditional titles. For the most part, the Wii served as an additional revenue source for third-party publishers, a role that mobile and PC could easily serve in lieu of the Wii nowadays. The PS3 and Xbox 360 combined sold less than the PS2 and Xbox, but not by enough that it could not be explained by the fact neither console had reached $100. The biggest issues I see with the eighth generation is the collapse of the dedicated handheld market and by extension, the collapse of Japan as a viable market for consoles. This is because of mobile existing when it previously didn't. However Japan did jump to portable gaming with the DS, so Japan's shift from DS to mobile could be seen as part of the general shift from dedicated handhelds towards mobile devices, which again did not exist until recently.
As far as the AAA Market goes, I do think they are unsustainable, but this is because AAA games are ill suited to the general shift towards digital. They are 50GB games with 20GB patches that exist in a world of 250GB bandwidth caps and low download speeds. They cannot survive in an all-digital future without removing bandwidth caps and increasing download speeds.
i think it's evident it's much harder to make profit solely looking at the fewer games on the market and how much money developers expect to get from each game from continued support. they went from selling $50 products in the ps2 days to basically selling $60 products now, and much more when you factor in dlc/season passes. this hasn't become a neat extra stream of revenue, but something that's relied on, hence sony's new method of locking multiplayer behind a paywall. this benefits both them and third-parties to the detriment of the consumer..
That's the exact group of people that bought a Wii U before Mario Kart.I meant the "hardcore" nintendo userbase (is there even one?) lol
the wii expanded audience only existed for one generation, consoles sales have been great for sony every single gen, and it continues with ps4. i know this theory of console are in trouble cause the wiiu is faling makes some nintendo fans feel better but it's not reality. the ps4 is destroying ps3 in sales, and XB1 is still head of the 360, where going back to ps2 like numbers, with XB brand doing much better.
ps4 110 million
XB1 40-50 million
wiiu 13-18 million
I can't see PS4 selling 100+ million. I believe this generation will be shorter and competition against home consoles is stronger now.
There's a lot of choice and competition for the TV box, but as far as TV gaming consoles go, there's really only three players. Everything else is a niche market.
I was talking compare to the PS3\360 gen those PS2 gen profit days not coming back .
I would say compare to lets say 5 years ago it easier to make more profit on this gen compare to last one.
the ps4 doesn't hit 110 million without some serious inroads elsewhere and over a long period of time.
the xbox 360 shipped 80 million units worldwide in eight years. that seems not so bad - 10m a year, but 40 million happened in the first five years, with a disproportionate amount coming in the ensuing four years. with the gaming landscape undergoing such a massive change, with less traditional software than ever sold by conventional means, with less reach to broader demographics, i really don't know how the ps4 manages to best that number by such a major amount.
the idea isn't that the outlook is bad. the idea is that the market has been poor for a while and we're now seeing the effects of the shortsightedness from everyone last gen. but specifically with regards to sony and microsoft, it seems that early sales were essentially frontloaded and we're seeing what would be second and third place systems duking it out versus first and second place consoles from the previous two generations. the idea is that customers have been trained into day one purchases - you can see this with destiny and its immense 90% month-over-month drop, and that this even translated into console sales.
and again, i would have to disagree. it's only easier if you're a certain kind of publisher. there may be an illusion that things are better right now, but it's mostly because a lot of publishers have stopped trying to reach other demographics or have outright vanished.
Everybody rushing to get something day 1 is not unique to games.
This happens to all forms of hardware and entertainment .
Of course it easier if your a certain type of publisher the market has never be fair to everyone .
If publishers trying to reach other demographics they make games for mobile\PC which the big publishers do .
the ps4 doesn't hit 110 million without some serious inroads elsewhere and over a long period of time.
the xbox 360 shipped 80 million units worldwide in eight years. that seems not so bad - 10m a year, but 40 million happened in the first five years, with a disproportionate amount coming in the ensuing four years. with the gaming landscape undergoing such a massive change, with less traditional software than ever sold by conventional means, with less reach to broader demographics, i really don't know how the ps4 manages to best that number by such a major amount.
the idea isn't that the outlook is bad. the idea is that the market has been poor for a while and we're now seeing the effects of the shortsightedness from everyone last gen. but specifically with regards to sony and microsoft, it seems that early sales were essentially frontloaded and we're seeing what would be second and third place systems duking it out versus first and second place consoles from the previous two generations. the idea is that customers have been trained into day one purchases - you can see this with destiny and its immense 90% month-over-month drop, and that this even translated into console sales.
Even if we take your hypothesis at face value despite me disagreeing with it, what happens without the churn that console manufacturers expect to continue any kind of growth, be it profit or userbase?
Because if you're not adding new blood into the "traditional" ecosystem, guess what happens in a fairly short time, historically speaking?
you're comparing the ps4 to the 360, why not compare it to the ps3? it's no secret, sony messed up big time last gen with the 599$ ps3, yet it still managed to ship 80 million units in 7 years despite 360 stealing half it's market share, and Microsoft doing everything right. sony launched the ps3 in march 2007 in europe, that's sony strongest region, despite all the mistakes, along with inferior controller and multiplatform games, sony managed to outsell the 360, that just shows how strong the sony brand is in europe.
really, i should be comparing it to the wii, as the two platforms that are supposed to perform best.
At this point Wii was often going for more than $400 second hand and it was chronically sold out. MSRP doesn't tell the real price story with Wii.$399 vs $250 though.
sörine;139255903 said:At this point Wii was often going for more than $400 second hand and it was chronically sold out. MSRP doesn't tell the real price story with Wii.
The Wii user base went to Candy Crush. The traditional userbase (it's not that huge) is rocking the Wii U.Hasn't most of nintendo's traditional userbase gone to Xbone/PS4? Can both Xbone and PS4 sell 150 million together?
$399 vs $250 though.
again, a failing of the microsoft and sony side of things.
No it isn't, it shows the true value of Wii to consumer demand. That people were paying double MSRP in some cases to own the platform isn't irrelevant.The second hand market is irrelevant though in this case.
again, a failing of the microsoft and sony side of things.
sörine;139257310 said:No it isn't, it shows the true value of Wii to consumer demand. That people were paying double MSRP in some cases to own the platform isn't irrelevant.
If Wii had a MSRP of $299 or $349 or $399 it could've potentially still been perpetually sold out it's first year. People were paying that and more for it.
From the OP:
Overall retail sales down less than 1% year over year.
Hardware up 59% year over year
sörine;139257310 said:No it isn't, it shows the true value of Wii to consumer demand. That people were paying double MSRP in some cases to own the platform isn't irrelevant.
If Wii had a MSRP of $299 or $349 or $399 it could've potentially still been perpetually sold out it's first year. People were paying that and more for it.
I meant the "hardcore" nintendo userbase (is there even one?) lol
In what way?
Yeah, they should have made 250$ machines. That would be great.
I don't know why people keep bring up Wii, it was a FAD, many of us believed in the motion control hype and went with it for a while, then people moved on. Its not coming back.