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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]

V

Version 3.0

Member
Welcome back, Aquamarine. I don't have Twitter, but I considered signing up just for you. I'm glad you came back before I took the leap. And I'm glad to see your fetish for single bolded characters is catching on. I like it.
 
L

lightning2k3

Member
Abdiel said:
I'm going to make a similar post to what I did in the "Sony Unfazed" thread regarding what we're seeing in the retail channel since the start of the month.

In short... The PS4 has once again overtaken the XB1 in sales on a weekly/daily basis... handily. I haven't had a chance to check if it has totally overcome the initial explosion of price-cut purchases, but it's certainly eating away at that buffer rather quickly.

Not only that, but the response to our BF ad has led to some interesting anecdotes. Getting an extra $20 off the XB1 deal doesn't seem to have elicited much interest beyond those that will already plan to be there, whereas we're getting questions about how early customers can line up for guaranteed placement for the PS4 bundles. I'll clarify that I fully expect both bundle offers to sell out that weekend, but from the disparity in interest/questions, it seems likely the overall velocity of those sales will be quite different.

We've also had a Sony rep in the store confirming some numbers with our management, in case we need to add additional stock for those sales. Sony doesn't seem to be brushing this off. (Interestingly, for those of you that are interested in this sort of thing, the fact that the GTA bundle comes with a physical copy of the game is actually a selling point for some customers.)

I don't really want to call the month one way or the other, but the people assuming that MS had this in the bag may want to reconsider.
Click to expand...

Wow. Your retail checks are usually pretty accurate. This is surprising and very worrisome for Microsoft.
 
F

Final Verdict

Member
Abdiel said:
I'm going to make a similar post to what I did in the "Sony Unfazed" thread regarding what we're seeing in the retail channel since the start of the month.

In short... The PS4 has once again overtaken the XB1 in sales on a weekly/daily basis... handily. I haven't had a chance to check if it has totally overcome the initial explosion of price-cut purchases, but it's certainly eating away at that buffer rather quickly.

Not only that, but the response to our BF ad has led to some interesting anecdotes. Getting an extra $20 off the XB1 deal doesn't seem to have elicited much interest beyond those that will already plan to be there, whereas we're getting questions about how early customers can line up for guaranteed placement for the PS4 bundles. I'll clarify that I fully expect both bundle offers to sell out that weekend, but from the disparity in interest/questions, it seems likely the overall velocity of those sales will be quite different.

We've also had a Sony rep in the store confirming some numbers with our management, in case we need to add additional stock for those sales. Sony doesn't seem to be brushing this off. (Interestingly, for those of you that are interested in this sort of thing, the fact that the GTA bundle comes with a physical copy of the game is actually a selling point for some customers.)

I don't really want to call the month one way or the other, but the people assuming that MS had this in the bag may want to reconsider.
Click to expand...

Wow, that is interesting. Thanks for the info.

Jc, what store do you work at?
 
C

cakely

Member
Abdiel said:
(Interestingly, for those of you that are interested in this sort of thing, the fact that the GTA bundle comes with a physical copy of the game is actually a selling point for some customers.)
Click to expand...

That is interesting ... but I guess it would be obvious, right? People want to open their new consoles and play a game, and not wait for a 50gb download from a service that may or may not be overwhelmed by all the other new console owners.

(That being said, the GTA V install off of disc on the PS4 was at least 25 minutes long. I was not a happy camper waiting for that one)
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Final Verdict said:
Wow, that is interesting. Thanks for the info.

Jc, what store do you work at?
Click to expand...

Abdiel works at Best Buy and has access to district-level data. He doesn't have nationwide figures (I presume those are limited to Best Buy corporate), but considering how Best Buy is an important retailer to total NPD figures (The NPD Group receives direct POS data from Best Buy + they're a big-box retailer), you should definitely pay attention to retail trends he provides us.

GAF is blessed with a variety of GAFfers in retail who can give us important channel-checks that we can utilise for future predictions.
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
hello again aqua! I was worried when you got re-banned, good to see you back again.

cakely said:
That is interesting ... but I guess it would be obvious, right? People want to open their new consoles and play a game, and not wait for a 50gb download from a service that may or may not be overwhelmed by all the other new console owners.
Click to expand...

It can also be sold for a decent amount if you're not the kind to hang on to your games.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Abdiel said:
I'm going to make a similar post to what I did in the "Sony Unfazed" thread regarding what we're seeing in the retail channel since the start of the month.

In short... The PS4 has once again overtaken the XB1 in sales on a weekly/daily basis... handily. I haven't had a chance to check if it has totally overcome the initial explosion of price-cut purchases, but it's certainly eating away at that buffer rather quickly.

Not only that, but the response to our BF ad has led to some interesting anecdotes. Getting an extra $20 off the XB1 deal doesn't seem to have elicited much interest beyond those that will already plan to be there, whereas we're getting questions about how early customers can line up for guaranteed placement for the PS4 bundles. I'll clarify that I fully expect both bundle offers to sell out that weekend, but from the disparity in interest/questions, it seems likely the overall velocity of those sales will be quite different.

We've also had a Sony rep in the store confirming some numbers with our management, in case we need to add additional stock for those sales. Sony doesn't seem to be brushing this off. (Interestingly, for those of you that are interested in this sort of thing, the fact that the GTA bundle comes with a physical copy of the game is actually a selling point for some customers.)

I don't really want to call the month one way or the other, but the people assuming that MS had this in the bag may want to reconsider.
Click to expand...

Anyone who thinks that simply doesn't understand or severely underestimates the impact of BF through CM on monthly sales.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Abdiel said:
Not only that, but the response to our BF ad has led to some interesting anecdotes. Getting an extra $20 off the XB1 deal doesn't seem to have elicited much interest beyond those that will already plan to be there,
Click to expand...

I was expecting that, $20 off is not a very good deal. Basically Microsoft attracted people earlier with $349 price point.

The great BF deal for Xbox One is Halo MCC bundle for $329. This is Walmart exclusive?
 
C

Conduit

Banned
Abdiel said:
I'm going to make a similar post to what I did in the "Sony Unfazed" thread regarding what we're seeing in the retail channel since the start of the month.

In short... The PS4 has once again overtaken the XB1 in sales on a weekly/daily basis... handily. I haven't had a chance to check if it has totally overcome the initial explosion of price-cut purchases, but it's certainly eating away at that buffer rather quickly.

Not only that, but the response to our BF ad has led to some interesting anecdotes. Getting an extra $20 off the XB1 deal doesn't seem to have elicited much interest beyond those that will already plan to be there, whereas we're getting questions about how early customers can line up for guaranteed placement for the PS4 bundles. I'll clarify that I fully expect both bundle offers to sell out that weekend, but from the disparity in interest/questions, it seems likely the overall velocity of those sales will be quite different.

We've also had a Sony rep in the store confirming some numbers with our management, in case we need to add additional stock for those sales. Sony doesn't seem to be brushing this off. (Interestingly, for those of you that are interested in this sort of thing, the fact that the GTA bundle comes with a physical copy of the game is actually a selling point for some customers.)

I don't really want to call the month one way or the other, but the people assuming that MS had this in the bag may want to reconsider.
Click to expand...

If PS4 wins November, it will be :

Total_Meltdown.jpg
 
S

Steve Youngblood

Member
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
Click to expand...

Seems to be working. I'm seeing a forum right now where people don't have access to GAF, so they can't have NPD numbers.

This email tag thing helps to protect the data.
 
L

leatherhat

Member
allan-bh said:
Seems to be working. I'm seeing a forum right now where people don't have access to GAF, so they can't have NPD numbers.

This email tag thing helps to protect the data.
Click to expand...

I think he means he doesn't want people responding with email tags if they aren't obscuring anything important.
 
K

KoopaTheCasual

Junior Member
Steve Youngblood said:
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
Click to expand...
Is it still ok, if you know who gets to use it, and that's it? For her sake?

The rest of us can just stop.
 
S

Superman00

Liverpool01
I just went with the flow since better to have numbers than no numbers. But I agree that it makes discussion a massive pain, especially on mobile.
 
R

Raist

Banned
Aquamarine said:
Abdiel works at Best Buy and has access to district-level data. He doesn't have nationwide figures (I presume those are limited to Best Buy corporate), but considering how Best Buy is an important retailer to total NPD figures (The NPD Group receives direct POS data from Best Buy + they're a big-box retailer), you should definitely pay attention to retail trends he provides us.

GAF is blessed with a variety of GAFfers in retail who can give us important channel-checks that we can utilise for future predictions.
Click to expand...

Pretty sure he mentioned he has access to other regions too.
But yes, regardless, his input is usually quite worthy of people's attention.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Raist said:
Pretty sure he mentioned he has access to other regions too.
But yes, regardless, his input is usually quite worthy of people's attention.
Click to expand...

Well yes, but not at a "nationwide" level. Like, you can't just see an aggregate of Best Buy's sales in the month of November...he has to check one at a time.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Kill3r7 said:
Anyone who thinks that simply doesn't understand or severely underestimates the impact of BF through CM on monthly sales.
Click to expand...

Well, GAF is often very insular in terms of how retail trends reflect... too many hardcore fans with anecdotes reflected by their limited scope. It's not really anyone's fault, per say, just not really a good look at how it all ends impacting.

cakely said:
That is interesting ... but I guess it would be obvious, right? People want to open their new consoles and play a game, and not wait for a 50gb download from a service that may or may not be overwhelmed by all the other new console owners.

(That being said, the GTA V install off of disc on the PS4 was at least 25 minutes long. I was not a happy camper waiting for that one)
Click to expand...

Yeah, nothing we can do about the install times, but all the same, it's still faster than downloading the entire game, especially if you don't have the best internet.

Radec said:
How does SO hold up?
Click to expand...

SO had some good feedback, and sold better than I anticipated... but it's also dropped off really fast. Completely vanished in the face of this last Tuesday. Kinda reminds me of the Infamous effect. Sold really well and made a decent splash, then slid away fairly quickly.

Spazgadget said:
Interesting info, Abdiel, as usual. Thanks for the insight!
Click to expand...

Glad to be of assistance. Leading into BF week, it's always interesting to see GAF's analysis.

allan-bh said:
I was expecting that, $20 off is not a very good deal. Basically Microsoft attracted people earlier with $349 price point.

The great BF deal for Xbox One is Halo MCC bundle for $329. This is Walmart exclusive?
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that offer is Walmart exclusive. Same with the Standalone PS4 +$50 GC, I believe.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
Click to expand...

Understood. Do you want me to stop the practice altogether? Because I have no qualms if it's the wishes of the mod team.
 
A

Atreides

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
Click to expand...

Most people won't notice this if a post in the 39th page is the only warning. If mods want to enforce this, adding it to the FAQ and a sticked new thread would be a good idea.
 
S

Steve Youngblood

Member
allan-bh said:
Seems to be working. I'm seeing a forum right now where people don't have access to GAF, so they can't have NPD numbers.

This email tag thing helps to protect the data.
Click to expand...

GAF is a forum with 144,299 registered users. Granted, a lot of those accounts are either banned or inactive, but there's still thousands of active users on the site. This isn't a secret elite club where we've thoroughly vetted every active member as someone that is totes cool and on the level. This isn't the GAF of several years ago where you might wait in the registration queue for over a year. Anyone who is locked out and wants an account just to click quote and see what's in the email tags can register an account and be active by the next round of NPDs.
 
K

Katana_Strikes

Member
Wow no wonder MS dropped the price after October. That's a big difference again. And shows not to write Sony off in November. Where MS can go from here after Xmas is limited. They can't drop the price yet again (but they certainly won't be putting it back up), whilst Sony still can play the price drop card and create even further damage.
 
L

lightning2k3

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
GAF is a forum with 144,299 registered users. Granted, a lot of those accounts are either banned or inactive, but there's still thousands of active users on the site. This isn't a secret elite club where we've thoroughly vetted every active member as someone that is totes cool and on the level. This isn't the GAF of several years ago where you might wait in the registration queue for over a year. Anyone who is locked out and wants an account just to click quote and see what's in the email tags can register an account and be active by the next round of NPDs.
Click to expand...

I agree that the forum is much very widely used and the email tags themselves are not necessarily the safest, however I do think that they provide some level of security when the thread becomes locked and we don't have the numbers floating around with whoever leaked them's name attached to it.

I do agree that it is terrible for conversation, so would a good compromise be only hard numbers in the tags?
 
T

theprodigy

Member
allan-bh said:
Seems to be working. I'm seeing a forum right now where people don't have access to GAF, so they can't have NPD numbers.

This email tag thing helps to protect the data.
Click to expand...

RIP they just got it (shortly after quoting your post too)

(surprised it took them that long tbh)
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
GAF is a forum with 144,299 registered users. Granted, a lot of those accounts are either banned or inactive, but there's still thousands of active users on the site. This isn't a secret elite club where we've thoroughly vetted every active member as someone that is totes cool and on the level. This isn't the GAF of several years ago where you might wait in the registration queue for over a year. Anyone who is locked out and wants an account just to click quote and see what's in the email tags can register an account and be active by the next round of NPDs.
Click to expand...

I understand your point and agree that if people talk using email TAG is bad for the discussion, but eventually a post using this method I don't see a problem.

Anyway, I will respect the rules the way they are set.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Steve Youngblood said:
OK, I'm going to be the bad guy here. The email thing? This is a bad idea. I don't want this to be encouraged. At best, it's a minimally effective tool to try and obfuscate that data that shouldn't be shared publicly is being shared slightly less openly. At worst, it completely destroys the flow of conversation and opens up the door for this to become more prolific on the rest of the forum. There was a user that was punished somewhat harshly (and comically) for hiding text in email tags. It is not a practice we want to encourage.

Now, I understand. I probably look like an awful person that is raining on the parade when everyone wants the same thing and ideas are being kicked around to facilitate that while also not being too ostentatious. Honestly, kudos to that. We all enjoy sales discussion. But this particular idea? This is not the answer.

I'm not issuing an immediate scorched earth warning here, but I will say that failure to comply is going to result in bans pretty quickly. So, don't post responses in email tags.
Click to expand...

Steve Youngblood
Don't blame us. Blame yourself or God.

Oh well. Pie charts and cryptic messages it is then!
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Well, regardless of the method, I think wait a few days in some level helps to the info not spread out.

Most people move on after NPD night and the next day.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Abdiel said:
I don't really want to call the month one way or the other, but the people assuming that MS had this in the bag may want to reconsider.
Click to expand...

Said it many times before -- the month is going to more than likely come down to how many special XB1 SKUs were made that are now sold out and/or hard to find. Pretty much feel that whoever gets this month will end up doing so by a pretty small margin since both consoles are going to do very well this Holiday season.
 
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