La_Li_Lu_Le_Lo
Neo Member
I'd go along with this, maybe wait one to two weeks and give rounded results. For the busy selling months round to the nearest 100k if need be.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
I'd go along with this, maybe wait one to two weeks and give rounded results. For the busy selling months round to the nearest 100k if need be.
bananafactory
Banned
lol @ minecraft 360 just hanging in those amazon charts at #13 and rising. minecraft is such a beast
anexanhume
Member
Oh, so their "updated daily" claim is bogus then. Good to know.
The PS4 has definitely risen in comaprison to last week on Amazon but so did XB1 for almost every SKU outside of the kinectless AC Unity bundle (and that wasn't even that big of a drop in terms of position) -- That's three other Xbox One SKUs (since the Sunset Overdrive bundle is sold out).
Those games you mentioned released at a good time too since the impact of their launches will continue on next week and right into Black Friday.
AstuteClass
Banned
Meh let them. As soon as January hits, even if the X1 remains $349.99, it won't be bundled with a game and I can foresee PS4 sales rising again.
E3 will be when we get the $349.99 for the PS4.
Nah, I haven't seen anything posted that's convincing enough to assume PS4 can win.
XB1 has got this in the bag.
~50k gap, minimum.
$299.
Believe.
TheBanditKing
Member
A physical copy of a game is always a better incentive to me then digital, honestly a digital copy of anything will never entice me to buy a bundled console.
I cant even believe people think MS would have it "in the bag" regardless of sales and pack in software I haven't seen or heard any change in word of mouth for the system nor a positive swing in consumer mind share so if anything I feel that they just have a chance of loosing by a smaller margin for November and a much slimmer chance of winning. just my .02
ethomaz
Banned
I guess it works that way...
The Hourly ranking is updated every 2 hours.
But the others rankings are updated when the Weekly update is out.
The last weekly update: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-11-10/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar
I'm waiting the Nov 17th update: http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-11-17/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar.
When the Nov 17th get updated then the Monthly and Yearly will be updated too.
Not a chance.
bananafactory
Banned
So when Microsoft said that XB1 led sales in US for the "last 2 weeks", what was the exact timeframe for that?
Nov 1 - 14?
Just curious.
Nov 1 - 14?
Just curious.
If XB1 doesn't win November then.. well that's basically it for hopes of even a monthly NA #1 spot. They tried EVERYTHING.
They'll probably win Nov.
Are you suggesting price-point exclusively defines the 'tiers'? Wouldn't that make every 60$ retail "AAA"? Mid-tier can't survive at 60$ in current market, the acquisition costs simply don't work out.Tookay said:
And there's really scant difference between mid-tier 20-30-man teams 10-14 years ago and equivalently sized medium/large indie teams today other than the distribution channels and corporate background.
Um, kind of. You're both right and wrong.
Amazon has an [edit] updated hourly [/edit] ranking, which shows sales velocity. That's the one with the arrows, and that's also the one that isn't that useful.
Amazon also has a month's weekly ranking, which are the links you posted above that have the date '2014-11-17' in them. That link will show the best sellers for that week. [edit] This is updated once, when the week is over and the data is final [/edit]
Amazon has a month's overall ranking [edit] which is updated daily [/edit], which shows what has sold best for the past month. This ranking has been the closest to the overall NPD report period rankings, and is the most useful ranking to use when trying to predict NPD results. To see this ranking, remove the '-17' from the date in your URL so that it only has '2014-11'.
Aquamarine
Member
I appreciate the Site Admins and Moderators on Chartz speaking out against callous, reckless leak exposure.
There are a lot of intricacies at work here that have been very frustrating these past few months. I handled it in a juvenile, inappropriate fashion last month and I apologise, but it's still an inherent point of contention.
I wouldn't be going through the trouble of trying to think up a solution if there weren't existing issues to deal with.
There are a lot of intricacies at work here that have been very frustrating these past few months. I handled it in a juvenile, inappropriate fashion last month and I apologise, but it's still an inherent point of contention.
I wouldn't be going through the trouble of trying to think up a solution if there weren't existing issues to deal with.
Welfare
Member
I would say the same, in fact I basically did before today, but with "lackluster" sales for the One in October, I don't see it catching up and passing the PS4 as easily now.
Also there is no fucking White bundle. If MS had ample stock for that, I would easily say the One will win November+December.
Neuromancer
Member
I think this is the right thing to do and I agree with Steve on this one. I think this information should either be public and openly discussed, or we shouldn't be discussing the information at all. I love numbers as much as the next guy but numbers we can't talk about without having to sneak around I can do without.
That said I still appreciate everything Aquamarine does and has done, and creamsugar too.
That said I still appreciate everything Aquamarine does and has done, and creamsugar too.
So sure over something that is still so much up in the air.
bananafactory
Banned
What's the rule about posting ratios instead of exact numbers?
Maybe if we know something like 1.5:1 then some could combine that with other publicy available information to get estimates that can be discussed.
I am not very clear on how this stuff works so sorry if I'm way off base
Maybe if we know something like 1.5:1 then some could combine that with other publicy available information to get estimates that can be discussed.
I am not very clear on how this stuff works so sorry if I'm way off base
I believe the PS2 had a $100 price cut in its second year.
Honestly, $299 seems to be a great price point for the casual market.
Or, perhaps Sony will be at $349 for holiday 2015 since a number of heavy AAA titles will be released in that period.
$299 price point would make sense in 2016 if they keep to their recent trend of releasing many exclusives one year, and then releasing significantly fewer quality titles the following year.
XB1 will win.
I won't say they deserve to win, but they've sure as hell have tried.
Only 50k?
What happened to the 'screeching halt' of PS4's sales?
I've since reconsidered my position, ever so slightly :3
Ratios can be the new pie chart.
Why should we trust you on this?
Yes, the PS2 dropped to $199 in May 2002.
I think the best day to avoid attention is to post the previous months numbers the day of the NPD when no one cares about the month prior and is too busy deciphering press releases/console waring.
theprodigy
Member
you know, I'm surprised the first thing that wasn't dropped was just some throwaway "Vita<x" comment lol
As far as Amazon rankings go the only thing that really matters is the monthly rankings. As of now it's:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2014-11/videogames#1
#7 - Xbox One Assassin's Creed: Unity Bundle
#15 - Playstation 4 Console
#25 - Xbox One Limited Edition Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare Bundle
#46 - Xbox One Assassin's Creed: Unity Bundle - Kinect Sensor Edition
#49 - PlayStation 4 Destiny Bundle
#55 - Xbox One
#59 - Xbox One Special Edition Sunset Overdrive Bundle
The Xbox One had a great head start at the beginning of November. We'll see if the Playstation 4 can make up the November gap by the end of the NPD period.
I enjoy following the hourly rankings but it's hard to put much faith in them, they tend to be all over the place.
EDIT: It looks like much of this was covered while I was typing that in. Hopefully it's not too redundant.
Yea, I'm a bit baffled as to why MS isn't pushing the white console as hard as Sony is with theirs.
It clearly has appeal and seems to sell just fine.
MS is taking that "limited edition" moniker too seriously.
I would recommend avoid giving out hard numbers and instead stick to ratios, perhaps even LTD numbers every once in a while.
The NPD thread this month was rather enjoyable, with many quality discussions/analysis despite the absence of numbers, which I believe lead to drive-by posts
similar to those in review threads (where people glance at the review score, but not the decisions that went into said scores).
A pie chart every now and then wouldn't be so bad either :3
I've edited that out.
I almost came off as arrogant lol
Steve Youngblood
Member
I feel like there's some confusion here, so I'll quickly try and address. Users are free to come up with whatever scheme they want to post information. We're not here as enforcers of the NPD. If they have a problem with information posted, they will probably try and pursue the user leaking the info. In that regard, I would encourage users to exercise good discretion so as to not have to face real life consequences just so we can better play the part of armchair analysts. It's just not worth it. Stay safe. That's more important than us being able to have data. Alternatively, they can contact the site's staff and we can decide from there what to do. But it's not in my job description to protect the integrity of NPD's data.
Anyway, the email tag was specifically singled out because of the effect it has on the flow of discussion. I'm not saying that pie charts are awesome and totally safe in protecting the information and encouraging people to do it, but the fact of the matter is that people could publicly post about the pie charts, extrapolate that data, and post publicly about that extrapolation. And endless chain of email tag replies makes the conversation incredibly tedious. And given that it doesn't provide very much protection from being viewed by the wrong set of eyes, our position is that it's not worth it.
Mind you, I'm not saying that I have a better idea. And I honestly don't revel in being the bad guy here. I want data too, and I'm not doing this because my best buddy that works for the NPD group told me to.
bananafactory
Banned
Thanks Steve that's a great post. I agree that no one should risk their job for the sake of GAF but I do respect that these people want us to have some information to discuss.
The best part about having data is that it often puts an end to a lot of the speculation and conspiracy theories that spawn from extended periods without concrete information coupled with confusing PR statements and spins from various companies. It's nice to have get some facts to actually put everything in perspective. I agree though that e-mail tags probably aren't the answer, hindering discussion in addition to providing no real protection for those who provide the information.
It was all helpful. Thanks.
Version 3.0
Member
A full comparison - that is, including the PS2 (at least) along with Wii/360/PS3 for "last gen" and the Wii/360/PS3 along with the new consoles for "this gen" - would be better. With as long as the PS3 gen wore on, those older consoles' sales were anemic by the time the new ones finally hit.
Having said that (but not willing to do it just now, as I'm at work), although I think that comparison would show some decline, I'm firmly on the side of "everything is fine". By which I mean to say, there's plenty of demand for game consoles, and it's not going away in the near future. The problem is on the software side. There's a gaping hole in the offerings in between the so-called AAA games on disc, and small/indie download-only games. I believe this was brought up earlier in the thread.
The shelves in-store for PS4 and XB1 games are pathetic. If anything is going to do in these current consoles, it's that, or the underlying symptoms causing that. My personal favorite blame victim is the manufacturing license fee. It amplifies risk for disc games, because the publisher has to pay the fee prior to any sales occurring. So the safer route is a smaller game, download-only, but that kills exposure and probably the majority of impulse buy potential.
The long-term effect of a smaller library, even if that's only true at retail, could be a compressed demographic - something that's already happening because of the social aspect of modern consoles (and society at large). People only play what their friends play, decided in advance. And that further amplifies risk. The industry is already too far along the road of hit-or-bust. It really needs a concerted effort to address this, but it seems very few publishers acknowledge any problem beyond "inflated budgets", ironically the one thing they have full and direct control over.
Monthly ranking means nothing until BF.
IcyRhythms
Member
"The Evil Within was the highest-selling first month of sales for new survival horror IP"
best thing I've heard all day
best thing I've heard all day
Can't tell what it's like at other retailers, but it's pretty sad Amazon didn't get enough units of the SO Bundle that it doesn't even outsell the white Destiny Bundle in it's second month.
I that case perhaps the earlier suggestion of holding off on anything concrete until the following month might be better? or at least for a couple of weeks anyway. Then those that are interested in specific data can see it, but there is less expectation of lengthy discussion which, as Steve points out, isn't well served by use of email tags.
Look at the situation now for instance. We have some info for October about a week late due to people not being around, and attention and speculation has already strongly moved onto november. I think that creates an environment where oerhaos the email tags and specific data can be raised without effecting the general flow of discussion which has moved on.
In the meantime, for NPD night etc, I think the pie charts, ratios and requiring people to do some extrapolation from previous months or YoY figures is good enough obfuscation to give a general picture of where things are.
There's a fundamental difference between stock and flow.
It's not true at all that the hourly rankings don't matter, because the point of the hourly rankings is to follow them over time and make projections on where the trend is going.
Obviously the monthly rankings will not reflect yet the flip that occurred over the past two days. Since there are still 11 days left in the month, the story from looking only at the monthly chart is actually more misleading: It fails to account for the fact that, 2 weeks after the price drop, the positions have flipped with no price drop from the competition.
There's significant value in that information.
Surely most publishers have more flexible distribution and duplication deals with Sony or MS? Eg only paying for the license fee from completed sales to consumers? That would leave the only risk as the physical disc duplication costs which are low anyway.
It is but I don't believe in a straight $100 price cut. PS4 is doing fine.
Sony will cut to $349, maybe people can grab one for $299 on Black Friday 2015.
Superman00
Liverpool01
I don't have all the necessary data for PS2 and for PS3/Wii/360. My general point was that all the decline we seen so far from the Wii have been picked up by Xbox One and PS4. Whether that continues to be the case remains to be seen.
Definitely will not. Wii sales in 2008 and 2009 are crazy.
Superman00
Liverpool01
True, the 12 months ltd has already fallen behind the Wii.
Version 3.0
Member
Unless something's changed in the last few years, no. That's exactly the type of thing that needs to happen, though.
shinra-bansho
Member
Welcome back, Aqua.
Everyone should have accepted by now there has been a major contraction with the loss of those consumers.
The Wii basically sold as much in Nov+Dec 2008 as the XBO will this entire year.
Everyone should have accepted by now there has been a major contraction with the loss of those consumers.
Yeah,very strong holiday.
And more incredible was the 3.8m in december 2009. Insane.
bananafactory
Banned
Working retail for most of the Wii lifecycle, I still cannot believe how insane that whole thing was from beginning to end. It boggles my mind.