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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]

V

vcc

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Welcome back, Aqua.The Wii basically sold as much in Nov+Dec 2008 as the XBO will this entire year.

Everyone should have accepted by now there has been a major contraction with the loss of those consumers.
Click to expand...

I don't think that's a fair comparison. In the US you move as much merchandise Nox+Dec as the entire rest of the year. You're comparing the #2/#3 platform in the off months to the #1 platform last gen in the busiest months.
 
B

bananafactory

Banned
vcc said:
I don't think that's a fair comparison. In the US you move as much merchandise Nox+Dec as the entire rest of the year. You're comparing the #2/#3 platform in the off months to the #1 platform last gen in the busiest months.
Click to expand...

Hasn't Sony been selling 200-300k monthly?

They're going to move 2-3 million in november+december?
 
B

bananafactory

Banned
Lace said:
What are the potential consequences if someone
Aqua
is caught leaking NPD numbers?
Click to expand...

If NPD were to actually make moves to hunt them down and find them, obviously they could be out of a job and potentially face legal action? (not sure about the last part but it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility)
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Steve Youngblood said:
GAF is a forum with 144,299 registered users. Granted, a lot of those accounts are either banned or inactive, but there's still thousands of active users on the site. This isn't a secret elite club where we've thoroughly vetted every active member as someone that is totes cool and on the level. This isn't the GAF of several years ago where you might wait in the registration queue for over a year. Anyone who is locked out and wants an account just to click quote and see what's in the email tags can register an account and be active by the next round of NPDs.
Click to expand...

Hate to say, the man is right.


Data is already up on chartzzźźzz. You just cant trust people on the internet to do things in good faith aqua, sorry bab.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Leondexter said:
The shelves in-store for PS4 and XB1 games are pathetic. If anything is going to do in these current consoles, it's that, or the underlying symptoms causing that. My personal favorite blame victim is the manufacturing license fee. It amplifies risk for disc games, because the publisher has to pay the fee prior to any sales occurring.
Click to expand...

Trust me, if retail ordered more, pubs would order more discs to be built. Truth of it is that retail has pulled way back on carried inventory weeks of supply, in the US particularly at Best Buy and Target. The 1st party royalty is just a cost of doing business. The hit's about the same as the digital royalty all things considered, so digital or retail, doesn't really matter. Physical COGs can be thrown on there, sure, but these costs aren't significant.

Leondexter said:
The long-term effect of a smaller library, even if that's only true at retail, could be a compressed demographic - something that's already happening because of the social aspect of modern consoles (and society at large). People only play what their friends play, decided in advance. And that further amplifies risk. The industry is already too far along the road of hit-or-bust.
Click to expand...

Big getting bigger. Everything else getting hammered. Just look at the top 10 for Oct for a key example of that. Some great games didn't make the top 10. Hell yes risk has been amplified.

Leondexter said:
It really needs a concerted effort to address this, but it seems very few publishers acknowledge any problem beyond "inflated budgets", ironically the one thing they have full and direct control over.
Click to expand...

Hmmm... don't think that's quite right. Of course it's a problem that is recognized. What can a pub do about it? Gotta hit the top 10 in order to gain that scale and get those customers to decide they want to play the game you're making. Making mid-tier games is a path straight to failure. So budgets have increased along with expectations of 80+ quality, open worlds, lengthy campaigns, huge multiplayer, etc. If you have suggestions please share them... the industry could use the ideas.

mrklaw said:
Surely most publishers have more flexible distribution and duplication deals with Sony or MS? Eg only paying for the license fee from completed sales to consumers? That would leave the only risk as the physical disc duplication costs which are low anyway.
Click to expand...

No. A royalty is paid on every manufactured game, whether or not it's sold through. If the pub builds too much, they eat the cost. There is no royalty relief, ever. This is where the 1st parties make their money... on the blades to the Console razor.
 
L

Lace

Member
bananafactory said:
If NPD were to actually make moves to hunt them down and find them, obviously they could be out of a job and potentially face legal action? (not sure about the last part but it doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility)
Click to expand...

Toki767 said:
Getting sued?
Click to expand...

Well then I'm in team don't leak the numbers. Sincerely not worth the consequences involved for allowing us to have a slight insight into the industry. I don't doubt that sooner or later the NPD will get involved and I'd hate to see someone face real consequences. This isn't some small closely knit forum where each member can be trusted.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
The answer is nothing. Just be smart about it, don't do it for the attention, do what you will because you care and want to provide meaning and context, and everyone else in this forum, stop constantly calling out people and asking questions like, 'what will happen??.'

Just let it lie and don't be dramatic and discuss what's in front of you and be chill.

anyway, it's worked for ten years ::shrug::
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
vcc said:
I don't think that's a fair comparison. In the US you move as much merchandise Nox+Dec as the entire rest of the year. You're comparing the #2/#3 platform in the off months to the #1 platform last gen in the busiest months.
Click to expand...
No I'm comparing my expectations for the XBO for the entire year, i.e. including the coming November and December, with two holiday months of Wii sales in 2008.

If you want to extend it to the current market leader, the Wii achieved in holiday quarter 2008 around what the PS4 will likely sell this entire year.

The Wii was an unprecedented and likely unrepeatable sales monster. The console market currently stands at around 13.5M TTM unit sales, give or take a hundred thousand or so as I don't believe we have last gen numbers right now.

It isn't getting back to the 20M+ that it saw back then.

It's an illustration to drive home, if it hasn't been driven home already, that those glory days are over.

John Harker said:
be chill.
Click to expand...
Sound, simple advice.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
CosmicQueso said:
No. A royalty is paid on every manufactured game, whether or not it's sold through. If the pub builds too much, they eat the cost. There is no royalty relief, ever. This is where the 1st parties make their money... on the blades to the Console razor.
Click to expand...
Isn't this what also makes pricing games lower at retail problematic?

If you're paying $12 in licensing fees and manufacturing regardless of what you charge, and the retailer wants $5 margin on $20 and $12 margin on $60, you're making ~$3 on a $20 game or $36 on a $60 game.
 
S

sörine

Banned
Nirolak said:
Isn't this what also makes pricing games lower at retail problematic?

If you're paying $12 in licensing fees and manufacturing regardless of what you charge, and the retailer wants $5 margin on $20 and $12 margin on $60, you're making ~$3 on a $20 game or $36 on a $60 game.
Click to expand...
I thought licensing fees were proportional to pricepoint. There might be a lower bound but there's no way $19.99 shovelware is paying out $10-12 per disc
 
L

LowEndTorque

Member
I'll give this sneaky discussion thing a try.

So So X1 will have to outsell the PS4 by units in November to make Mr. Greenberg’s #PrimeTime #RegularSeason an even playing ground going into December.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
sörine;139603468 said:
I thought licensing fees were proportional to pricepoint. There might be a lower bound but there's no way $19.99 shovelware is paying out $10-12 per disc
Click to expand...

I thought you only got those if you were part of a "Greatest Hits" line-up where it had a lowered licensing fee.

The licensing fee itself used to be a lot lower though back when $20 shovelware existed (I think it was more like $6 plus $1 for manufacturing).
 
V

vcc

Member
shinra-bansho said:
No I'm comparing my expectations for the XBO for the entire year, i.e. including the coming November and December, with two holiday months of Wii sales in 2008.

If you want to extend it to the current market leader, the Wii achieved in holiday quarter 2008 around what the PS4 will likely sell this entire year.

The Wii was an unprecedented and likely unrepeatable sales monster. The console market currently stands at around 13.5M TTM unit sales, give or take a hundred thousand or so as I don't believe we have last gen numbers right now.

It isn't getting back to the 20M+ that it saw back then.

It's an illustration to drive home, if it hasn't been driven home already, that those glory days are over.
Click to expand...

PS4 is tracking close-ish to the wii numbers. Lower for sure.

I don't think those were glory days. The wii had a faddish popularity to them and much of it's sales was fueled by sales to a casual crowd that has transferred to mobile.

The core base of gamers grows pretty steadily but last gen was a leap that included non-traditional gamers. This gen will track under that but it's not doom and gloom.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Nirolak said:
I thought you only got those if you were part of a "Greatest Hits" line-up where it had a lowered licensing fee.

The licensing fee itself used to be a lot lower though back when $20 shovelware existed (I think it was more like $6 plus $1 for manufacturing).
Click to expand...

If i remember right the royalty fee is percentage on DD platforms instead of a set price.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
CosmicQueso said:
Trust me, if retail ordered more, pubs would order more discs to be built. Truth of it is that retail has pulled way back on carried inventory weeks of supply, in the US particularly at Best Buy and Target. The 1st party royalty is just a cost of doing business. The hit's about the same as the digital royalty all things considered, so digital or retail, doesn't really matter. Physical COGs can be thrown on there, sure, but these costs aren't significant.
Click to expand...

Sorry to budge in, don't retailers also have a price-protection policy - publishers have to eat the cost if ever the title does not sell according to the expectations set?

I don't know if this holds true today, but Nintendo is the only publisher that does not offer retailers price protection on their first-party software. As such, retailers order their staple franchises such as Pokemon, Mario, Zelda, etc. in bigger quantities, but more niche titles such as Fire Emblem, are delivered in smaller shipments.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Nirolak said:
Isn't this what also makes pricing games lower at retail problematic?

If you're paying $12 in licensing fees and manufacturing regardless of what you charge, and the retailer wants $5 margin on $20 and $12 margin on $60, you're making ~$3 on a $20 game or $36 on a $60 game.
Click to expand...

Precisely. When a game drops it's because the publisher pays the retailer like $8 or so per unit to drop the retail price $10. Retail margin is always protected.

You point out exactly why games never fall under $19.99 retail except during closeouts. Because of the 1st party royalties, dropping a game under $19.99 retail would result in a per unit loss for the pub.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
vcc said:
The core base of gamers grows pretty steadily but last gen was a leap that included non-traditional gamers. This gen will track under that but it's not doom and gloom.
Click to expand...
I'd contend that the core base of gamers hasn't grown much, nor grown steadily for a long time now. I also don't think it's shrunken much.

I think it's been relatively stable, accounting for the cyclical nature of the industry.

That in itself presents problems though, given rising expectations for production values.
 
J

John Harker

Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
shinra-bansho said:
I'd contend that the core base of gamers hasn't grown much, nor grown steadily for a long time now. I also don't think it's shrunken much.

I think it's been relatively stable, accounting for the cyclical nature of the industry.

That in itself presents problems though, given rising expectations for production values.
Click to expand...

You are more or less spot on again, yea.

The core base is relatively stable, it hasn't particularly grown as much as you'd think.
The overall marketsize has grown because it has expanded dramatically the last few years, but the core itself in terms of raw numbers of what you'd consider the 'hardcore 20%' mostly consistent. Their buying behavior may change, and their adoption rate certainly has, but it's too soon this generation to say one way or another what the real growth of that segment is
 
A

AniHawk

Member
Lemondish said:
I think your problem here is that you believe that the snapshot of the industry you saw then is the only truth that can exist forever. It explains why you feel like the contraction we saw in the past is an unstoppable train. It explains why you feel like smaller games with competitive pricing is a sign of a dead mid-tier ravaged by over saturation in specific genres rather than a result of pressure from comparable experiences on other platforms that didn't exist in the PS2 era. It explains why you seem to be ignoring that some of the most successful titles in this new environment are far more imaginative and genrebusting than ever before, and have sold remarkably well despite not being a part of the demographic you seem is being directly catered to.

Yes, maybe you have a perspective when you state that the AAA industry has some problems that look insurmountable. That doesn't immediately equate to the entire industry collapsing in the near future. Everything you're peddling comes off as fear mongering supported by wild speculation.
Click to expand...

i never said the entire industry would collapse. i don't even think we'll see consoles going away next-generation. are you confusing me with someone else? my expectation is that new models are going to arise this generation that will replace what we consider the traditional market at some point in the relatively near future (10 years?).

regarding smaller titles - i think it's great that they can do well. but they're not a replacement for what was lost after the ps2 and the wii. i'm not even talking about quality either. hell, if i had my way, p.t. would be a $30 retail game and people would be lauding it as game of the year. instead its value consists as a 'teaser' on the market for free.
 
C

Chmpocalypse

Blizzard
allan-bh said:
Wii was a a phenomenon that no one can fully understand. Just happened and shocked the world.
Click to expand...

Right place, right time, right product. It excited tech casuals with its possibilities. Of course those didn't quite pan out, and the fad cratered hard, but for a while it was a monster. Made me Father of the Year when I snagged one for my son its first Christmas. : p
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
shinra-bansho said:
I'd contend that the core base of gamers hasn't grown much, nor grown steadily for a long time now. I also don't think it's shrunken much.

I think it's been relatively stable, accounting for the cyclical nature of the industry.

That in itself presents problems though, given rising expectations for production values.
Click to expand...

And juxtaposition of the static / cyclical core market in an environment that demands more and more out of blockbuster hits.

Fewer titles, Fewer studios, Fewer publishers, the advent of the AAAA-esque game, etc.

It makes me worried about the big-budget experiments like Destiny. I know it has sold brilliantly in its opening month for a new IP. I know it is one of the best-selling new IPs at launch. I know it had Halo 3-esque second month sales, and that ended up a resounding success for Bungie.

But I just can't shake the #5 for the month. Doesn't feel right, I guess.

I guess it's related to the whole expectations thing. It's not just fan pressure to rise production values, but it's also publisher / executive / shareholder pressure to drive margins that put on an awful lot of pressure on a few ventures.

Has Activision ever had such high expectations for a title before?
 
L

lightning2k3

Member
Aquamarine said:
And juxtaposition of the static / cyclical core market in an environment that demands more and more out of blockbuster hits.

Fewer titles, Fewer studios, Fewer publishers, the advent of the AAAA-esque game, etc.

It makes me worried about the big-budget experiments like Destiny. I know it has sold brilliantly in its opening month for a new IP. I know it is one of the best-selling new IPs at launch. I know it had Halo 3-esque second month sales, and that ended up a resounding success for Bungie.

But I just can't shake the #5 for the month. Doesn't feel right, I guess.

I guess it's related to the whole expectations thing. It's not just fan pressure to rise production values, but it's also publisher / executive / shareholder pressure to drive margins that put on an awful lot of pressure on a few ventures.

Has Activision ever had such high expectations for a title before?
Click to expand...

Obviously publishers do not want to take a risk. But do they have a choice? Call of Duty is selling as worse than it has ever been, and Activision need something fresh to generate sales. Wouldn't it be riskier NOT to try something? At least currently they can sustain these expensive experiments with COD and WOW money.
 
U

unapersson

Member
Leondexter said:
The long-term effect of a smaller library, even if that's only true at retail, could be a compressed demographic - something that's already happening because of the social aspect of modern consoles (and society at large). People only play what their friends play, decided in advance. And that further amplifies risk. The industry is already too far along the road of hit-or-bust. It really needs a concerted effort to address this, but it seems very few publishers acknowledge any problem beyond "inflated budgets", ironically the one thing they have full and direct control over.
Click to expand...

I don't know how they do it in the US, but in Europe a lot of small digital games do have a store presence, as digital download cards with a picture of the game cover on the front. Makes it easy to buy them as presents, and more visible than most mobile phone games.
 
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