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[Aquamarine]

Shovelware might be too harsh a term. Yet very few major outlets reviewed this game. If you look at Metacritic for it, there's only IGN, Polygon and USgamer in a sea of niche gaming sites. It seemed to review OK for a Kinect game, but that can be a backhanded complement.

Didn't the sales of the Dance Central series plummet? The shift away from Kinect was in full swing when they started on Fantasia, and MS dropping Kinect was patently obvious to happen from the moment the XB1 trailed behind the PS4.

A Kinect music game (not even a dance game) was always going to have an incredibly limited audience, even before MS abandoned Kinect.

As the Dance Central series progressed, sales for each new title continuously declined. There's a reason why Harmonix turned the Xbox One iteration into a digital version...it can be hard to justify growing investment in a series that suffers from continually declining sales even if sales aren't horrible.

Publishers really put a lot of weight in potential growth opportunities.

Not going to post launch month sales here because all of the Dance Central games had good legs.

It's a real shame for Harmonix about Fantasia. I just hope it doesn't cripple their ability to secure future funding for more projects.

Hm, makes sense. For those titles, I assume Level 5 did their own publishing though right? Or was Nintendo/Sony behind the titles?

Namco Bandai published Ni No Kuni.

Nintendo handled Professor Layton right from the start and Level 5 partnered with Sony for White Knight Chronicles.

In all of the new IP situations (including Fantasy Life), they partnered with someone. Level 5 doesn't like to go indie for overseas retail titles.

 

[serversurfer]

It's almost like SCEA wants the Vita to die off just so they can focus 100% of their energies on the successful PS4 and not have to worry about resource allocation.

I expect they'll end up pushing as a cheap way to access Vue. It's cheap enough, they may simply give them away with a nominal contract.

 

[allan-bh]

I got vita 31k+ assuming DS+PSP is 0K

Which is better then it's been but abysmal for anything not named vita

If PS TV is included, was a terrible launch. (Not that I expected anything different).

 

[Xenus]

If PS TV is included, was a terrible launch. (Not that I expected anything different).

As I said talking to Aqua what launch? I didn't see a single ad that it was launching. So outside the well informed I don't think anyone knows the thing exists let alone what it is.

 

[stryke]

I think that X1 will come back towards the end like the PS3 did (though in US, only....maybe UK too).

But the PS3 never "came back" in the US. Its LTD is something like ~60% of 360.

 

[ZSaberLink]

Namco Bandai published Ni No Kuni.

Nintendo handled Professor Layton right from the start and Level 5 partnered with Sony for White Knight Chronicles.

In all of the new IP situations (including Fantasy Life), they partnered with someone. Level 5 doesn't like to go indie for overseas retail titles.

It's interesting, because I thought Level 5 opened an office in the US trying to publish games overseas right? I guess they may just not have had interest in releasing Fantasy Life almost 2 years after its initial release.

 

[Welfare]

But the PS3 never "came back" in the US. Its LTD is something like ~60% of 360.

He means how the PS3 came back and beat(?) the 360 WW, but this time, the One will do so in the US.

 

[tazz3]

So ps4 is # 1 again awesome how did xbone 1 did

 

[ZSaberLink]

So ps4 is # 1 again awesome how did xbone 1 did

It's pretty much been these rankings this year ->

PS4 > XB1 > 3DS > Wii U > 360 > PS3 > Vita... so probably that, with the 3DS occasionally outselling the XB1.

 

[allan-bh]

As I said talking to Aqua what launch? I didn't see a single ad that it was launching. So outside the well informed I don't think anyone knows the thing exists let alone what it is.

Yeah. SCEA doesn't care for Vita anymore.

 

[Aquamarine]

It's pretty much been these rankings this year ->

PS4 > XB1 > 3DS > Wii U > 360 > PS3 > Vita... so probably that.

I have money in Microsoft, so I'm really hoping for an Xbox One win in November (ironically, I've never actually owned an Xbox console before).

It will help demonstrate its value proposition to MS shareholders. Every little bit helps at this point.

 

[ZSaberLink]

I have money in Microsoft, so I'm really hoping for an Xbox One win in November (ironically, I've never actually owned an Xbox console before).

It will help demonstrate its value proposition to MS shareholders. Every little bit helps at this point.

MS stock has been doing amazingly well recently despite Xbox performance. You'll be fine stock-wise.

Also Project Spark just had a pricecut of 50% on Amazon raising it from 1765 to 311 in the hourly rankings. Did it sell better than Fantasia at least?....

 

[allan-bh]

It will help demonstrate its value to MS shareholders. Every little bit helps at this point.

I never saw any question about Xbox in Microsoft earnings call. Shareholders apparently don't care, is almost like Xbox doesn't exist.

 

[Xenus]

Yeah. SCEA doesn't care for Vita anymore.

Going by their whole one major ad campaign I'm not sure they ever really cared in the first place.

 

[Aquamarine]

I never saw any question about Xbox in Microsoft earnings call. Shareholders apparently don't care, is almost like Xbox doesn't exist.

And there's a good reason for that.

That's why every little success counts to help convince people that the C&GH division is relevant.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

Since this is the last NPD thread before November NPD, does anyone feel like the Wii U is going to be able to outsell the 360 for the year of 2014?

It's been leading most months that I can find, and it has Smash (And I'm still holding out hope for a December price cut!) but the 360 effectively is $100 or $150 this holiday. Tough price to beat...

 

[allan-bh]

Since this is the last NPD thread before November NPD, does anyone feel like the Wii is going to be able to outsell the 360 for the year of 2014?

It's been leading most months that I can find, and it has Smash (And I'm still holding out hope for a December price cut!) but the 360 effectively is $100 or $150 this holiday. Tough price to beat...

360 will be very cheap on Black Friday.

I believe the gap right now is 100k+ in favour of Wii U.

 

[theprodigy]

Since this is the last NPD thread before November NPD, does anyone feel like the Wii is going to be able to outsell the 360 for the year of 2014?

It's been leading most months that I can find, and it has Smash (And I'm still holding out hope for a December price cut!) but the 360 effectively is $100 or $150 this holiday. Tough price to beat...

false, the 360 has been ahead of the Wii the whole year, and the Wii does not have a new Smash coming out

you mean the Wii U?

 

[serversurfer]

I have money in Microsoft, so I'm really hoping for an Xbox One win in November (ironically, I've never actually owned an Xbox console before).

It will help demonstrate its value proposition to MS shareholders. Every little bit helps at this point.

Sorry, but how does the need to buy market share to remain relevant even in their strongest market display value to investors? Do most investors just read the headlines saying "XBox Now #1 Brand," and that's that? =/

 

[EatMyFace]

It's almost like SCEA wants the Vita to die off just so they can focus 100% of their energies on the successful PS4 and not have to worry about resource allocation.

Vita's already dead. There's no more room for dedicated game handhelds in America. We're lucky Sony hasn't discontinued it yet.

 

[QuikNez]

I have money in Microsoft, so I'm really hoping for an Xbox One win in November (ironically, I've never actually owned an Xbox console before).

It will help demonstrate its value proposition to MS shareholders. Every little bit helps at this point.

I'm a MSFT equity owner as well and really want them to gain some market share back in the gaming space as I'm a gamer at heart; however, truth of the matter is that XBOX is not a large earnings generating business. The value of the XBOX brand is building and supporting MSFT's presence in the retail space outside of Windows.

 

[Amir0x]

And there's a good reason for that.

That's why every little success counts to help convince people that the C&GH division is relevant.

oh you're back!

Hurray!

 

[allan-bh]

Vita's already dead. There's no more room for dedicated game handhelds in America. We're lucky Sony hasn't discontinued it yet.

It has, despite the kinda disappointing sales of 3DS, is still relevant.

 

[The Abominable Snowman]

false, the 360 has been ahead of the Wii the whole year, and the Wii does not have a new Smash coming out

you mean the Wii U?

I literally edited it like 10 seconds after I saw the mistake and I already have 2 quotes with the error. oh well.

 

[Welfare]

Hey Aqua, how is Killer Instinct doing on the retail front? Better or worse than NBA Live?

 

[Aquamarine]

Sorry, but how does the need to buy market share to remain relevant even in their strongest market display value to investors? Do most investors just read the headlines saying "XBox Now #1 Brand," and that's that? =/

I'm a MSFT equity owner as well and really want them to gain some market share back in the gaming space as I'm a gamer at heart; however, truth of the matter is that XBOX is not a large earnings generating business. The value of the XBOX brand is building and supporting MSFT's presence in the retail space outside of Windows.

Satya has been under a bunch of pressure to reform Microsoft and cut out the fat out of the company. So far, Satya has been pro-Xbox. So it's up to him to convince people that Xbox is worth keeping.

The Xbox One turning around perception-wise. Hopefully that will lead to increases sales-wise and increased division-level profits now that Microsoft has given it a shot in the arm.

One month sales are a small factor. The hope is that Xbox One will start to display a greater momentum and grow its ecosystem at an accelerated rate based off of that small success.

I agree that Xbox has never been a particularly big player. That's all right...it just needs to show its relevancy.

Then again, there are definitely those that see the futility in the Xbox's role within the corporation. And that's not necessarily an invalid position to have.

Personally I'm an advocate of the continued preservation of the video game industry, that's why I tend to lean pro-Xbox and see more value in Xbox's primary business.

 

[ViewtifulJC]

I have money in Microsoft

wait what happen to Nintendo

 

[Game Guru]

I imagine that whatever MS decides to do with Minecraft will show what direction they plan to take their gaming division. Despite XB1's lack of success, I would imagine Xbox is Microsoft's most successful brand outside of Windows and Office so there is still use for Microsoft to keep it around.

In any case, I do hope that Microsoft doesn't leave since, quite frankly, PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo are likely to be the last traditional console brands. Anyone else who has a foot in gaming are not making consoles in the traditional sense and instead focusing on PC and mobile.

 

[kyser73]

I imagine that whatever MS decides to do with Minecraft will show what direction they plan to take their gaming division. Despite XB1's lack of success, I would imagine Xbox is Microsoft's most successful brand outside of Windows and Office so there is still use for Microsoft to keep it around.

In any case, I do hope that Microsoft doesn't leave since, quite frankly, PlayStation, Xbox, and Nintendo are likely to be the last traditional console brands. Anyone else who has a foot in gaming are not making consoles in the traditional sense and instead focusing on PC and mobile.

IIRC it goes

Windows
Server
Office.
Consumer stuff, which covers WinMob, Xbox, Bing

Xbox is a very visible brand, and its also having very visible difficulties, and that's what even the smallest turnaround can help address internally.

Don't forget, Xbox is MSs push into the consumer market and homes. Gates & Ballmer both view this market in the same way Intel looks at the mobile chip space - something they aren't in, but need to be as it is a big growth area (and equally, it is a market they're finding expensive to crack open).

Xbox' success could well be a bigger part of MS deciding whether to stick at this space in the future - Bing is nowhere in search; Surface is coming good just as the tablet market is starting to pinch.

Also outside of this, Office is under serious pressure - 365 is under huge competition from free alternatives in the consumer market - and while it is still a cash cow, its more like one of those emaciated ones you see in droughts rather than the corn-fed, beer massaged beast it was 10 years ago.

 

[small44]

Vita's already dead. There's no more room for dedicated game handhelds in America. We're lucky Sony hasn't discontinued it yet.

they just need to be supported by developper and i assure you handheld would sell very well

 

[adamsappel]

As I said talking to Aqua what launch? I didn't see a single ad that it was launching. So outside the well informed I don't think anyone knows the thing exists let alone what it is.

I had completely forgotten I'd preordered until it showed up in my mailbox. I haven't even unboxed it.

 

[El-Pistolero]

How can one have access to the sales number? If it is possible, that is? I am interested in knowing how the the three current gen consoles fared the pas month! Thanks to any chivalrous forum dweller!

 

[Final Verdict]

The only titles you named that really drive sales are CoD (multi platform) and Halo/Gears. Everything else is the icing. Crackdown isn't a high profile anything and Titanfall is a great game, not a sales savior. So no, there aren't as many as you think.

The rest of your post basically ignores the actual
Sales curve and why the PS3 was able to come back--none of those factors are in MS' favor. It won't vanish and will be a solid second, but that's about all it can aim for based on historical data.

Ok, yeah, I get what you are saying about Crackdown/Titanfall. They aren't 'saviours', though to be fair, I wasn't trying to say they were. My point is that Xbox has a lot more exclusive games and content in the first-person-shooter space, and that is going to help drive sells in the long run, little by little. No one title will be the savior, but I think it will build up to make up a software library that is more appealing to US gamers.

Playstation on the other hand does not have ANY big household shooters like halo and gears. They have tried with games like killzone and Resistance, but I think it should be obvious by now that those games never were meant to be big players (even if some of them are fairly good games in their own right).

Now, I don't know what you mean by 'sales curve', but I think I know what you are going to say about why the PS3 came back.

Yes, I will admit that Europe and Japan had a big part in it, BUT, a big reason why it sold so well in those regions is due to the fact that a lot of their exclusive software & library appeals very well with those audiences.

Also, I think that a big reason as to why it didn't ever quite come back in the US is due to the fact that it always had a higher price tag.
I think that the price has a huge effect on US sales, and while it doesn't always equal success, I would argue that when we Americans see two similar products, we usually go for the cheapest one, UNLESS there is some specific reason as to why we want the more expensive one...

Having said that, I think that Microsoft has woken up to the fact that they need to be cheaper to the PS4 to do well here in the US. And I think that the November results will show a clear difference.
I can't/won't say they will win for sure, but I can say that they will do a lot better than they have in the past two months where they got outsold 2-1.

 

[Game Guru]

IIRC it goes

Windows
Server
Office.
Consumer stuff, which covers WinMob, Xbox, Bing

Xbox is a very visible brand, and its also having very visible difficulties, and that's what even the smallest turnaround can help address internally.

Don't forget, Xbox is MSs push into the consumer market and homes. Gates & Ballmer both view this market in the same way Intel looks at the mobile chip space - something they aren't in, but need to be as it is a big growth area (and equally, it is a market they're finding expensive to crack open).

Xbox' success could well be a bigger part of MS deciding whether to stick at this space in the future - Bing is nowhere in search; Surface is coming good just as the tablet market is starting to pinch.

Also outside of this, Office is under serious pressure - 365 is under huge competition from free alternatives in the consumer market - and while it is still a cash cow, its more like one of those emaciated ones you see in droughts rather than the corn-fed, beer massaged beast it was 10 years ago.

I always saw Windows Server as being a part of Windows, so forgive me for not including it. I understand the issue shareholders have with the Xbox hardware is caused by the fear that console gaming isn't a growth area anymore. Out of the three console companies, I think Sony is the one most in tune with the gaming market in general, not just the traditional console market. I mean, yeah, they have the PS4 and that's been a success for them, but also that they are trying so many different gaming related things that MS and Nintendo are not doing. Sony has PlayStation 4, PlayStation Vita, PlayStation TV, PlayStation Now, and Morpheus which are all different and possibly exclusive visions of gaming... Vita and TV are failures, but Sony did at least give both a shot. PlayStation 4 is a success though it is tied directly to the traditional console market which may not have a future. Even PlayStation Now and Morpheus are part of seeking out alternative markets than traditional consoles. Sony has always seemed the most savvy of the three console companies about consoles with PS3's relative failure being a wake up call and Nintendo having superiority in understanding the handheld market.

 

[Final Verdict]

Satya has been under a bunch of pressure to reform Microsoft and cut out the fat out of the company. So far, Satya has been pro-Xbox. So it's up to him to convince people that Xbox is worth keeping.

The Xbox One turning around perception-wise. Hopefully that will lead to increases sales-wise and increased division-level profits now that Microsoft has given it a shot in the arm.

One month sales are a small factor. The hope is that Xbox One will start to display a greater momentum and grow its ecosystem at an accelerated rate based off of that small success.

I agree that Xbox has never been a particularly big player. That's all right...it just needs to show its relevancy.

Then again, there are definitely those that see the futility in the Xbox's role within the corporation. And that's not necessarily an invalid position to have.

Personally I'm an advocate of the continued preservation of the video game industry, that's why I tend to lean pro-Xbox and see more value in Xbox's primary business.

I'v heard about this, and that is why I am hoping it starts to do better.
I think a lot of xbox fans (myself included) just want to see their console do well so as to assure them that the brand will continue to be supported.

Really, I wish the same for all the big three though. In a perfect world (for me), all three consoles would sell equally every month, and just continue to show growth in the industry, even if just by a little.

I'm a big Halo fan, but I also love Zelda, and Uncharted, and many other exclusive franchises that I would hate to see go under, or be mistreated if any of the big 3 were to collapse or get sold off one day.

 

[TomShoe]

I have money in Microsoft

Slow down, I can only load fodder into my cannon so fast!

Also outside of this, Office is under serious pressure - 365 is under huge competition from free alternatives in the consumer market - and while it is still a cash cow, its more like one of those emaciated ones you see in droughts rather than the corn-fed, beer massaged beast it was 10 years ago.

I was always under the impression that the majority of sales of Office were for the corporate sector.

 

[hodayathink]

I always saw Windows Server as being a part of Windows, so forgive me for not including it.

I think by server, they mean more along the lines of Azure and other Microsoft server/cloud based solutions, not a server OS.

 

[GuitarAtomik]

As a FreQuency fan, I've always had a soft spot for Harmonix, even though I was never caught up in the Guitar Hero/Rock Band craze.

But I don't feel much sympathy for a developer who pushes out Kinect shovelware and finds it doesn't sell. The Kinect honeymoon period ended years ago, with even MS dropping it. It was a folly to make a game based around it and it would be insane for them to think it would have been a big success story.

Wow dude...just........wow.

 

[RyanPierre]

As a FreQuency fan, I've always had a soft spot for Harmonix, even though I was never caught up in the Guitar Hero/Rock Band craze.

But I don't feel much sympathy for a developer who pushes out Kinect shovelware and finds it doesn't sell.

Not much of a soft spot if you can't even recognize that they spent 3-4 years working on the AAA caliber game. That's quite an insult to call it shovelware.

I think the fact that it didn't sell has way more to do with Disney than Harmonix. Where was the advertising? It's hard to fathom why Disney pumped all this money into the development, only to send it out to die, especially with their resources. I can't imagine most people are even aware that it exists and was released. And most of those who have heard of it probably only saw the terrible teaser trailer last summer and never paid attention to it again. Shame, it's a great game, and the industry needs more companies willing to take risks and try new things.

 

[Nightengale]

I was always under the impression that the majority of sales of Office were for the corporate sector.

And small businesses are starting to look into office software offerings outside what MS is offering.

Sure, Office is still the best, but not all businesses require that.

 

[Xenus]

And small businesses are starting to look into office software offerings outside what MS is offering.

Sure, Office is still the best, but not all businesses require that.

Not just office but exchange is pretty much the only game in town as far as business email goes and active directory is by far the largest corporate account management software.

 

[RyanPierre]

If there are people who like art, here's a look at a rare, lost picture. Feels like a shame to let it go unappreciated.

 

[NoPiece]

I think the fact that it didn't sell has way more to do with Disney than Harmonix. Where was the advertising? It's hard to fathom why Disney pumped all this money into the development, only to send it out to die, especially with their resources. I can't imagine most people are even aware that it exists and was released. And most of those who have heard of it probably only saw the terrible teaser trailer last summer and never paid attention to it again. Shame, it's a great game, and the industry needs more companies willing to take risks and try new things.

I think it has more to do with Microsoft. Disney started development with sales projections based on Kinect being bundled with every Xbox. With disappointing Xbox sales and the unbundling, they probably decided there was no way to recoup the development cost, and are cutting their losses by killing the marketing budget.

 

[Busaiku]

I don't think 50k is necessarily bad.
Didn't Professor Layton & The Azran Legacy debut low, to go on to do well later on?

 

[mrklaw]

Anyways, based on that MCV thread this morning, the Nov NPD thread is going to be soul crushing and will very likely eliminate what remaining faith I have in humanity.

Even if the Xbox One wins Novermber (which I still find unlikely, but let's say it does), not sure how that means anything for December, January, etc... the sales gap has increased every month since January, even with aggressive pricing and offers from MS. More power to them, would love to see a highly competitive market (hell, I even have a Windows Phone, Surface and bought 3 Zunes, so I'm very much a MS customer) but in the big picture, winning November wouldn't be as big as everyone seems to be expecting it to be.

Whatever happens, the november NPD thread is a lose-lose.

- MS has been built up to win easily recently. So that is the expected result right now. So if they do win, you'd think reactions would be relatively calm. But they won't be of course, it will be used as a launchpad for various comments related to Sony being lazy, not having any games, to MS turning things around and they'll now beat Sony etc etc.

- on the other hand if Sony wins, you'll have MS fans being hugely defensive and lots of generally snarky comments all around.

But sad but it has been hyped up too much. It'll be titanfall month x 10.

 

[MrNyarlathotep]

Don't forget, Xbox is MSs push into the consumer market and homes. Gates & Ballmer both view this market in the same way Intel looks at the mobile chip space - something they aren't in, but need to be as it is a big growth area (and equally, it is a market they're finding expensive to crack open).

Xbox' success could well be a bigger part of MS deciding whether to stick at this space in the future - Bing is nowhere in search; Surface is coming good just as the tablet market is starting to pinch.

Their push into homes with the Xbox brand was to control the living room TV, and while they were spending billions to try and do that their competitors made the concept of a single screen shared by the family irrelevant. Right now that desperate bid to control the "devices that plug into a TV" market is a lot like a desperate bid to control the Pager market.

Bing at least has secondary benefits for existence, and underpins the search functionality of Windows desktop and servers.

 

[serversurfer]

Satya has been under a bunch of pressure to reform Microsoft and cut out the fat out of the company. So far, Satya has been pro-Xbox. So it's up to him to convince people that Xbox is worth keeping.

The Xbox One turning around perception-wise. Hopefully that will lead to increases sales-wise and increased division-level profits now that Microsoft has given it a shot in the arm.

One month sales are a small factor. The hope is that Xbox One will start to display a greater momentum and grow its ecosystem at an accelerated rate based off of that small success.

I agree that Xbox has never been a particularly big player. That's all right...it just needs to show its relevancy.

Then again, there are definitely those that see the futility in the Xbox's role within the corporation. And that's not necessarily an invalid position to have.

That's kinda of what I'm getting that though; is that really a reasonable hope at this point? I think someone said that with all of the discounts and software, the effective price of the hardware is like $150? And despite that, they may or may not pull off a win against the $400 PS4 that's actually cheaper to manufacture? Rather than proving the relevancy of their product, it seems that it only proves the relevancy of their money, and the irrelevancy of their product.

Surely, subsidies like that are not a sustainable business model in this day and age, right? Those subsidies can't last forever, but without them, they were getting doubled up by Sony in their strongest market. I'm not seeing how a couple of months of fire-sale prices really reverses that trend. And even if somehow this gives them the critical mass they need to keep even with Sony in the US at a reasonable price point, they're still getting decimated in the rest of the world.

Realistically, how can they hope to overcome such trends at this point? What sort of long-term effect do you predict will come of these discounts? What price point do you think they'll be at post-holiday, and where will that put their sales relative to Sony, both in the US and worldwide? Can XBone survive at all as a purely US/UK console? Even if they stabilize at pulling in a modest profit somehow, is "modest profits" even a business MS are interested in being in?

Personally I'm an advocate of the continued preservation of the video game industry, that's why I tend to lean pro-Xbox and see more value in Xbox's primary business.

Oh, I'm a huge fan of video games too. I'm just not seeing how Microsoft's participation is necessarily vital to the industry. Obviously, a healthy market requires some competition, but I'm not convinced MS are the only ones ever capable of providing it. Nintendo seems like a good candidate; they're the only company to have ever bested Sony, after all. Apple need only flip a switch in the AppleTV to become an overnight player in the (micro)console space. Weren't Amazon working on some kind of console too? Maybe Samsung will buy the Halo IP. /shrug

So, I guess my other question is, "Why Microsoft, specifically?" Is it just the more, the merrier, or is there something specific you feel they to have offer that we can't get anywhere else?

And sorry to put you in the position of "defending MS," but you seem reasonably level-headed, and you've got access to a lot of data I don't, so I'd really like to know how you see them moving forward at this point.

 

[theprodigy]

That's kinda of what I'm getting that though; is that really a reasonable hope at this point? I think someone said that with all of the discounts and software, the effective price of the hardware is like $150? And despite that, they may or may not pull off a win against the $400 PS4 that's actually cheaper to manufacture? Rather than proving the relevancy of their product, it seems that it only proves the relevancy of their money, and the irrelevancy of their product.

Surely, subsidies like that are not a sustainable business model in this day and age, right? Those subsidies can't last forever, but without them, they were getting doubled up by Sony in their strongest market. I'm not seeing how a couple of months of fire-sale prices really reverses that trend. And even if somehow this gives them the critical mass they need to keep even with Sony in the US at a reasonable price point, they're still getting decimated in the rest of the world.

Realistically, how can they hope to overcome such trends at this point? What sort of long-term effect do you predict will come of these discounts? What price point do you think they'll be at post-holiday, and where will that put their sales relative to Sony, both in the US and worldwide? Can XBone survive at all as a purely US/UK console? Even if they stabilize at pulling in a modest profit somehow, is "modest profits" even a business MS are interested in being in?


Oh, I'm a huge fan of video games too. I'm just not seeing how Microsoft's participation is necessarily vital to the industry. Obviously, a healthy market requires some competition, but I'm not convinced MS are the only ones ever capable of providing it. Nintendo seems like a good candidate; they're the only company to have ever bested Sony, after all. Apple need only flip a switch in the AppleTV to become an overnight player in the (micro)console space. Weren't Amazon working on some kind of console too? Maybe Samsung will buy the Halo IP. /shrug

So, I guess my other question is, "Why Microsoft, specifically?" Is it just the more, the merrier, or is there something specific you feel they to have offer that we can't get anywhere else?

And sorry to put you in the position of "defending MS," but you seem reasonably level-headed, and you've got access to a lot of data I don't, so I'd really like to know how you see them moving forward at this point.

.....what?

 

[Chmpocalypse]

That's kinda of what I'm getting that though; is that really a reasonable hope at this point? I think someone said that with all of the discounts and software, the effective price of the hardware is like $150? And despite that, they may or may not pull off a win against the $400 PS4 that's actually cheaper to manufacture? Rather than proving the relevancy of their product, it seems that it only proves the relevancy of their money, and the irrelevancy of their product.

Surely, subsidies like that are not a sustainable business model in this day and age, right? Those subsidies can't last forever, but without them, they were getting doubled up by Sony in their strongest market. I'm not seeing how a couple of months of fire-sale prices really reverses that trend. And even if somehow this gives them the critical mass they need to keep even with Sony in the US at a reasonable price point, they're still getting decimated in the rest of the world.

Realistically, how can they hope to overcome such trends at this point? What sort of long-term effect do you predict will come of these discounts? What price point do you think they'll be at post-holiday, and where will that put their sales relative to Sony, both in the US and worldwide? Can XBone survive at all as a purely US/UK console? Even if they stabilize at pulling in a modest profit somehow, is "modest profits" even a business MS are interested in being in?


Oh, I'm a huge fan of video games too. I'm just not seeing how Microsoft's participation is necessarily vital to the industry. Obviously, a healthy market requires some competition, but I'm not convinced MS are the only ones ever capable of providing it. Nintendo seems like a good candidate; they're the only company to have ever bested Sony, after all. Apple need only flip a switch in the AppleTV to become an overnight player in the (micro)console space. Weren't Amazon working on some kind of console too? Maybe Samsung will buy the Halo IP. /shrug

So, I guess my other question is, "Why Microsoft, specifically?" Is it just the more, the merrier, or is there something specific you feel they to have offer that we can't get anywhere else?

And sorry to put you in the position of "defending MS," but you seem reasonably level-headed, and you've got access to a lot of data I don't, so I'd really like to know how you see them moving forward at this point.

Nintendo is not going to be the answer to Sony. Their relevance in the console market is shrinking; selling only to their hardcore fans means they aren't creating any real mindshare.

 

[Ty4on]

.....what?

The SoC is bigger in the XB1 and DDR3 prices have risen enough to match GDDR5 prices IIRC. I'm uncertain what AMD charges for the licensing, but other than that size of the SoC is all that matters for price of it. XB1 could get comparatively cheaper down the line if the ESRAM scales down well on smaller nodes. A big portion of the chip is dedicated to the ESRAM which AFAIK is easier to scale than other stuff, but I'm not 100% certain. Right now we're seeing most foundries have big issues developing new nodes that are cost efficient which could delay price drops for both systems unless they're willing to take a loss. The 28nm HPM node they are made on has been around since 2013* and while there are 20nm devices out there today the node is in short supply as evident by Apple's shortages and lack of A8 chip in the new iPad Mini.
'Standard' 28nm has been around since 2012.

The PS4 case is clearly a cheaper with a smaller cooling solution, smaller size and the internal PSU.

Edit: Added some more info.