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[Kathian]

Hi there, theviolenthero.


Wii U October software sales (in revenue) is up 43% compared to October 2014.

Wii U October hardware sales (in units) are down -5% compared to October 2014.

Its quite amazing how Nintendo is ticking along as a publisher; I know some people thought Wii U should have had a price cut but this is why they didn't - whats the purpose in making a loss on hardware to drive down the profits you make on software?

NX will be interesting - got no real idea what it will be but unfortunately for some I think it will be about selling Nintendo software rather than third parties.

 

[Ricky_R]

Based on what we now know regarding Halo 5's initial sales, I think Uncharted 4 will outsell it, at least world wide.

Yeah, worldwide. Although I don't remember if the argument was about the US or WW, tbh. Anyway, there's a good chance Uncharted might pull it off world wide. Not so sure about the US.

 

[Madness]

Plus isn't Titanfall 2 guaranteed to be on the PS4?

Not necessarily. The first was lifetime exclusive. I wouldn't be surprised if MS, since they funded the first so much, didn't get something like Tomb Raider style exclusivity for TF2, limiting it to just PC/Xbox One early on and then PS4 release. Though EA does publish it now, and Sony has secured a lot of EA exclusivity for games like Battlefront etc.

 

[dancrane212]

Wouldn't have worked this past September with metal gear

MGSV wasn't that big on XB1 was it? I would have figured that game, even in NA, was primary sold on PS4 at retail.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

That seems really high. We know Halo with bundles was 935k. Your high end seems very unrealistic. The optimistic estimates I've seen say 35% digital at the most.

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

 

[malfcn]

The MCC issues suppressing Halo 5 sales is something I can't wrap my head around. MCC had connectivity issues. Surely people realize that 343 isn't dumb enough to make the same mistake? It's like when people were saying "I won't buy nextbox because of RRoD". Yeah, cause Microsoft is definitely making the same mistake that cost them billions.

Have you seen every Halo thread in the last year? MCC is brought up every single time. To the point of derailing discussions.

 

[kswiston]

You do realize they didn't create any of these games right? These are all previously third party IPs they purchased exclusivity for. Hence the issue.

Also, I wouldn't count 1 or 2 games a generation (or stuff like Titanfall where the sequel games are multiplat) as being particularly impressive. Microsoft is still very much coasting on their first party IPs created during the OG Xbox's run (Halo, Forza, Fable mostly).

People accuse Nintendo of doing the same shit every generation, but I am positive they have created more new 5M+ series in the last two generations than Microsoft has.

 

[kswiston]

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

Dividing by 0.65 is not the same as multiplying by 1.35, which is what you should be doing if you are suggesting that digital adds 35%. Dividing by 0.65 is the same as saying digital is adding over 50%

 

[Jack The Nipper]

I said this before but


Developers really need to focus on a solid campaign for their franchises first


Do you guys actually know what made cod popular in the first place?

That's right, it was the fun and cool looking single player of MW

People were pretty hyped on the game because of the single player portion that was played at E3. It's always funny how people believe mp is what sells cod (and that is true now)

BUT

it isn't what sold and made COD what it is today. That started with the MW campaign and the demo they had at MS's e3 press conference.

MP was just icing on the cake at this point.

 

[leeh]

Dividing by 0.65 is not the same as multiplying by 1.35, which is what you should be doing if you are suggesting that digital adds 35%. Dividing by 0.65 is the same as saying digital is adding over 50%

No, because digital isn't 35% of that number, it's 35% of the total of sales, not just physical. The division gets you 100%. Multiplying by 1.35 gets you an extra 35% of the physical sales.

 

[ethomaz]

The MCC issues suppressing Halo 5 sales is something I can't wrap my head around. MCC had connectivity issues. Surely people realize that 343 isn't dumb enough to make the same mistake? It's like when people were saying "I won't buy nextbox because of RRoD". Yeah, cause Microsoft is definitely making the same mistake that cost them billions.

It is about trust.

I know that because I never bought a car again from Volkswagen here in Brazil because the bad experience I had with one of them.

And for me it is a fair decision... I never had issue again with cars.

 

[PanicFreak]

Not necessarily. The first was lifetime exclusive. I wouldn't be surprised if MS, since they funded the first so much, didn't get something like Tomb Raider style exclusivity for TF2, limiting it to just PC/Xbox One early on and then PS4 release. Though EA does publish it now, and Sony has secured a lot of EA exclusivity for games like Battlefront etc.

It's already been confirmed as multiplatform from day one.

 

[kswiston]

No, because digital isn't 35% of that number, it's 35% of the total of sales, not just physical. The division gets you 100%.

Ah, I misread the initial statement then. 35% for a AAA game is probably heavily overestimated though. I could see that for something like Fire Emblem, or for an Atlus game.

 

[Steverulez]

Also, I wouldn't count 1 or 2 games a generation (or stuff like Titanfall where the sequel games are multiplat) as being particularly impressive. Microsoft is still very much coasting on their first party IPs created during the OG Xbox's run (Halo, Forza, Fable mostly).

MS had plenty of new IPs last gen: Kameo, Viva Piñata, Crackdown, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Too Human, Alan Wake, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Infinite Undiscovery, N3... some games were more popular than others, some got sequels, ME was big and got bought by EA, some of the stuff wasn't as big, developer troubles etc.

Their problem was they started coasting in the latter part of the gen on some core games and invested in a lot of Kinect titles but they have invested in new stuff on Xbox One already with a lot more coming

 

[allan-bh]

Destiny sold 200k (with bundles), so Uncharted possible sold less than 150k. I suppose standalone is worst than Gears Ultimate in august.

 

[D4Danger]

I said this before but


Developers really need to focus on a solid campaign for their franchises first


Do you guys actually know what made cod popular in the first place?

That's right, it was the fun and cool looking single player of MW

People were pretty hyped on the game because of the single player portion that was played at E3. It's always funny how people believe mp is what sells cod (and that is true now)

BUT

it isn't what sold and made COD what it is today. That started with the MW campaign and the demo they had at MS's e3 press conference.

MP was just icing on the cake at this point.

MW was all about the mp (remember the beta?). It dethroned Gears and Halo on Xbox Live and made that series a juggernaut.

Why do you think anyone is playing that game a week after launch? it's certainly not the campaign.

 

[The Mad Draklor]

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

Didn't the bundles give Halo 5 in the digital format, not as a disc?

 

[leeh]

Ah, I misread the initial statement then. 35% for a AAA game is probably heavily overestimated though. I could see that for something like Fire Emblem, or for an Atlus game.

Definitely a lot higher than what current lifetime financial reports have told us. Although, me and a handful of wise folk, feel the split would be higher in the first week due to the rise in digital sales and digital pre-loads.

 

[RexNovis]

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

Edit: NVM beaten like a stray dog

 

[kswiston]

MS had plenty of new IPs last gen: Kameo, Viva Piñata, Crackdown, Mass Effect, Gears of War, Too Human, Alan Wake, Blue Dragon, Lost Odyssey, Infinite Undiscovery, N3... some games were more popular than others, some got sequels, ME was big and got bought by EA, some of the stuff wasn't as big, developer troubles etc.

Their problem was they started coasting in the latter part of the gen on some core games and invested in a lot of Kinect titles but they have invested in new stuff on Xbox One already with a lot more coming

Half the stuff you listed isn't owned by Microsoft. Publishing a game from a third party isn't the same as a first party title. Otherwise Dragon Quest and Monster Hunter are Nintendo games (in the west).

 

[CosmicQueso]

Definitely a lot higher than what current lifetime financial reports have told us. Although, me and a handful of wise folk, feel the split would be higher on release due to the rise in digital sales and it being launch week which covers digital pre-loads.

Even for day 1, 35% is in outlier territory, particularly for more mass appeal SKUs.

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

This is the correct way to do the extrapolation.

This calculation results in 935k/503k Packaged/Digital split, or 65%/35%.

 

[ethomaz]

Destiny sold 200k (with bundles), so Uncharted possible sold less than 150k. I suppose standalone is worst than Gears Ultimate in august.

Destiny data only says about Uncharted without bundles... bundles can boost the sales.

But yeap... flopped.... at least it is a collection and not a new entry.

 

[Hockeymac18]

You have to consider the size of the team that made the game and the marketing budget before assessing it's success or failure. Halo sales at these levels, may not justify that budget. My thought is that if Halo continues its sales at these levels, or if sales continue to drop, then Microsoft would be better off taking 343i and having them work on something else. I don't think they would close the studio and build a "new IP" studio in its place.

Just think about it for a minute. If you set your budget assuming x number of sales and sales come back at one half of x, you're going to need to adjust your budget going forward. I don't know what number Microsoft has in its forecasts but I doubt it was this low.

Sorry, I don't buy this argument at all. If they can't make money off of 400 million, they have serious budgeting issues.

And if Halo can't be successful at these big (modest for Halo, but still big numbers for the industry) numbers, the videogame industry is in serious trouble.

I also don't buy the argument that MS didn't see a decline. I'd argue that the REQ system is a direct result of this forecast. In game dlc/microtransactions as a whole are a response by the industry to deal with these general decline in raw units (which as cosmic queso alluded to a few pages back is going to become more of an issue as things are more homogenized at the AAA level). I know people hate them (I'm generally with you there), but they're a solution to a very real problem that the AAA games industry is facing.

I obviously don't know Halo's overall budget, but I'd very surprised if they haven't more than made up their money invested in the game. If you think MS is going to drop the Halo property when it's still clearly making a lot of money, you're fooling yourself.

Like I said, if the game was selling at niche/bad levels for an average game, you might have a point. But it's still selling pretty well and (importantly) making a lot of money.

 

[ethomaz]

Maybe my math is wrong, but

935K/.65 = 1438K

That means 65% is retail and 35% digital?

 

[leeh]

Even for day 1, 35% is in outlier territory, particularly for more mass appeal SKUs.

Considering a huge amount of the 935k number was bundles which included digital codes, naturally the split will be a lot higher due to that anyway. Personally, I believe pre-loading lowers the numbers away from pre-ordering, and it's a largely growing trend. There's also the tagline of that Halo 5 was the best selling digital title. I honestly feel it would be a little tad higher than .35.

I would love to get exact stats for it, the only thing we have are quarterly reports which include the split over the life of a game in a quarter.

 

[Steverulez]

Half the stuff you listed isn't owned by Microsoft. Publishing a game from a third party isn't the same as a first party title.

Microsoft consider the games they publish/fund first-party, of all the games on that list only Mass Effect went to Playstation, Microsoft's line-up doesn't become irrelevant because they got outside studios to develop the games.

They owned 7/11 at launch, now own Gears too and we might be getting an another Alan Wake by the sounds of things and MS have kept close to Remedy. MS worked with outside studios to develop games with them using their teams at Redmond

 

[Jumeira]

Titanfall LTD would be lovely @NPD_George

 

[allan-bh]

Destiny data only says about Uncharted without bundles... bundles can boost the sales.

But yeap... flopped.... at least it is a collection and not a new entry.

The problem with this type of bundle is that didn't increase the price, the game is a gift so we don't know how many buyers actually wanted the game. Same with Gears bundle, is selling for people that just want a Xbox One.

 

[Chobel]

I can't, because I don't have a clue what they sold in the last four years and neither do you. It's more likely Uncharted 2 (which was far more praised) sold very well for the last few years.

Your guess is 11m+ mine is something like 5 / 7 / 9 in series order.

Yeah, no way the first Uncharted sold 5 mil, not that high.

 

[Alo0oy]

Destiny sold 200k (with bundles), so Uncharted possible sold less than 150k. I suppose standalone is worst than Gears Ultimate in august.

I expected 300k standalone, <200k is not very good.

 

[jroc74]

NPD George to the rescue...thanks and stay safe.

I guess a lot of Halo fans were indeed Bungie fans and moved to Destiny.

i343 did nothing to hold them too with poor decisions with Halo 4 and Halo 5... not forgetting the madness about MCC.

PS. While Bungie did a lot of big mistakes with Destiny the post support they are doing with game is really great... they are slow to fix but they listen almost all critics from the fans.

Some of us had a theory about Destiny causing low UK sales for Halo 5. I can believe it, especially how TKK has been doing.

Didn't the bundles give Halo 5 in the digital format, not as a disc?

....the plot thickens.....would these also count as digital sales....

And omg at Fallout 4 numbers. I had no idea ppl even liked Fallout that much. Whoever has a bundle for that in Nov, Dec might rack up big time.

 

[kswiston]

Destiny data only says about Uncharted without bundles... bundles can boost the sales.

But yeap... flopped.... at least it is a collection and not a new entry.

We've had a dozen or so of these remaster collections this gen and last gen. How many actually do big numbers? I don't really think it is reflective of the IP as much as it is the willingness of players to buy something they already purchased and beat a few years ago.

 

[ReturnOfTheRAT]

Good for them.

 

[Chobel]

Definitely a lot higher than what current lifetime financial reports have told us. Although, me and a handful of wise folk, feel the split would be higher in the first week due to the rise in digital sales and digital pre-loads.

Wise? Oh please!

 

[Papacheeks]

Half the stuff you listed isn't owned by Microsoft. Publishing a game from a third party isn't the same as a first party title.

Doesn't Microsoft own Rare and any IP they make? Same goes for Remedy?
The games steverules listed are mostly owned by Microsoft.

But I would agree that even in this generation they have been coasting on their select line of first party games that they milk every couple years. And they don't sign any deals for maybe outside developers. Only third party exclusivity.

Sunset, and Dead rising are the only games i can think of where they paid to have those made.
Scalebound right now is the only one I can think of besides recore that they have contracted outside US/WESTERN developers to make an exclusive for them.

The rest of the studios they own have not made anything really new in a while. Kind of polorizing when you look at where Sony's studios and publishing have been doing.
2016 going to be nutts.

 

[BadWolf]

We've had a dozen or so of these remaster collections this gen and last gen. How many actually do big numbers? I don't really think it is reflective of the IP as much as it is the willingness of players to buy something they already purchased and beat a few years ago.

Yup.

I loved the first 3 games on PS3 and intend to get U4 day 1 but have zero desire to ever get that remaster.

 

[Ryng_tolu]

I don't see Halo 5 digital sales over 15% of total sales... imo, 1.1 million at best.

 

[Deputy Moonman]

Sorry, I don't buy this argument at all. If they can't make money off of 400 million, they have serious budgeting issues.

And if Halo can't be successful at these big (modest for Halo, but still big numbers for the industry) numbers, the videogame industry is in serious trouble.

I also don't buy the argument that MS didn't see a decline. I'd argue that the REQ system is a direct result of this forecast. In game dlc/microtransactions as a whole are a response by the industry to deal with these general decline in raw units (which as cosmic queso alluded to a few pages back is going to become more of an issue as things are more homogenized at the AAA level). I know people hate them (I'm generally with you there), but they're a solution to a very real problem that the AAA games industry is facing.

I obviously don't know Halo's overall budget, but I'd very surprised if they haven't more than made up their money invested in the game. If you think MS is going to drop the Halo property when it's still clearly making a lot of money, you're fooling yourself.

Like I said, if the game was selling at niche/bad levels for an average game, you might have a point. But it's still selling pretty well and (importantly) making a lot of money.

Also, if you look at the overall sales for TMCC (at or above 5 million at this point), I don't think there is a reason to throw in the white flag based off of 1 week's worth of Halo 5 sales.

 

[Harmen]

Whats the purpose in making a loss on hardware to drive down the profits you make on software?

Improve brand awareness and securing more customers for your future hardware products, also making the platform healthier for other publishers.

You are not wrong though, but this is one reasoning why Nintendo could've pushed more for hardware sales. In the end I doubt that would've mattered much, however. Now at least they made the WiiU successful in terms of profits.

 

[CosmicQueso]

Considering a huge amount of the 935k number was bundles which included digital codes, naturally the split will be a lot higher due to that anyway. Personally, I believe pre-loading lowers the numbers away from pre-ordering, and it's a largely growing trend. There's also the tagline of that Halo 5 was the best selling digital title. I honestly feel it would be a little tad higher than .35.

I would love to get exact stats for it, the only thing we have are quarterly reports which include the split over the life of a game in a quarter.

Based on small sample size I'm aware of, this is still a high assumption right now. A year or two from now? Maybe not. Digital Distribution as share of total continues to grow. Wonder if at some point you hit a cap given how many people use used games as a form of currency and stick with packaged for those benefits.

 

[Kill3r7]

I guess a lot of Halo fans were indeed Bungie fans and moved to Destiny.

i343 did nothing to hold them too with poor decisions with Halo 4 and Halo 5... not forgetting the madness about MCC.

PS. While Bungie did a lot of big mistakes with Destiny the post support they are doing with game is really great... they are slow to fix but they listen almost all critics from the fans.

There is certainly a lot of overlap. For what its worth, from my XBL friends list there isn't a single person who has played Halo 5 that hasn't also played Destiny. It is also worth noting that Destiny has shown incredible staying power and even after Halo 5's release it is still going strong.

 

[Madness]

Again NPD_George, since you have data on hand. How much did Halo 5 sell in relation to Master Chief Collection, excluding bundles, and how does it compare to Halo 4's launch? Obviously it was only 5 days for October, whereas Halo 4 and Master Chief Collection had several weeks of sales in November NPD's.

 

[QaaQer]

NX will be interesting - got no real idea what it will be but unfortunately for some I think it will be about selling Nintendo software rather than third parties.

It's going to come with a UFO crane and a coin slot.

 

[ethomaz]

We've had a dozen or so of these remaster collections this gen and last gen. How many actually do big numbers? I don't really think it is reflective of the IP as much as it is the willingness of players to buy something they already purchased and beat a few years ago.

Well TLOUR and MCC did big I guess (in remaster/collections context).

 

[Ryng_tolu]

Again NPD_George, since you have data on hand. How much did Halo 5 sell in relation to Master Chief Collection, excluding bundles, and how does it compare to Halo 4's launch? Obviously it was only 5 days for October, whereas Halo 4 and Master Chief Collection had several weeks of sales in November NPD's.

MCC sold 665,000 in November NPD.

 

[borghe]

Ah, I misread the initial statement then. 35% for a AAA game is probably heavily overestimated though. I could see that for something like Fire Emblem, or for an Atlus game.

this. 35% is unheard of for any AAA console game. Witcher 3 holds the record currently I believe with 25%. And that game is way less mainstream than Halo (where a ton of sales will come from parents buying for kids, etc)

I'd be surprised if Halo even hit 20% digital. Not a knock on the game... just attributing to it being an extremely mass market brand with a severe retail presence. I mean I'll say the same thing right now about Battlefront also. That game probably won't even hit 15% digital.

 

[kswiston]

Doesn't Microsoft own Rare and any IP they make? Same goes for Remedy?
The games steverules listed are mostly owned by Microsoft.

They don't own Remedy or Remedy's IP. Alan Wake was self-published on PC. I don't think they own the IPs for most (if not all) of the Japanese games either. There have been 3 Blue Dragon games for instance, with the other two releasing on Nintendo DS. There was also an anime and other media. We have already talked about Mass Effect, and Too Human was the same deal.

Gears, Crackdown, and the Rare stuff are Microsoft IPs.

If we are talking about the strength of a first party (especially in reference to future output), you can't start lumping in publishing deals from third party devs/publishers, because those IPs are free to move where ever they want between entries.

 

[ethomaz]

There is certainly a lot of overlap. For what its worth, from my XBL friends list there isn't a single person who has played Halo 5 that hasn't also played Destiny. It is also worth noting that Destiny has shown incredible staying power and even after Halo 5's release it is still going strong.

I saw friends backing from Halo 5/CoD to play Destiny on Tuesday at least (the week reset day for Destiny).
Anecdotal of course but I guess it can be true.

 

[OldRoutes]

Can we get all the latest info in the OP?

 

[PanicFreak]

Sorry, I don't buy this argument at all. If they can't make money off of 400 million, they have serious budgeting issues.

And if Halo can't be successful at these big (modest for Halo, but still big numbers for the industry) numbers, the videogame industry is in serious trouble.

I also don't buy the argument that MS didn't see a decline. I'd argue that the REQ system is a direct result of this forecast. In game dlc/microtransactions as a whole are a response by the industry to deal with these general decline in raw units (which as cosmic queso alluded to a few pages back is going to become more of an issue as things are more homogenized at the AAA level). I know people hate them (I'm generally with you there), but they're a solution to a very real problem that the AAA games industry is facing.

I obviously don't know Halo's overall budget, but I'd very surprised if they haven't more than made up their money invested in the game. If you think MS is going to drop the Halo property when it's still clearly making a lot of money, you're fooling yourself.

Like I said, if the game was selling at niche/bad levels for an average game, you might have a point. But it's still selling pretty well and (importantly) making a lot of money.

Also, if you look at the overall sales for TMCC (at or above 5 million at this point), I don't think there is a reason to throw in the white flag based off of 1 week's worth of Halo 5 sales.

I don't think they will lose money on Halo 5. However, the profitaility of the series has dropped. If this is the new normal and sales of future games don't continue to decline, we will probably still receive "big" Halo games for a long time. To that end, I think that 343i's production schedule is pretty much set in stone until 2018, which is when I think they will release Halo 6. However, after that, I'm not so sure. If the market continues to move away from Halo, it may not be worth it to keep a studio with the talent level, and presumably the costs commiserate with that talent level, of 343i on the Halo franchise.