mr_bishiuk
Banned
typhonsentra said:
:lol
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NPD Sales Results for September 2009
- Thread starter EviLore
- Start date
:lol
Opiate said:
Yeah that's a tough one. I want it to do better than 500k, but even though I think every hardcore gamer out there went out and got it, it's going to take more marketing and word of mouth for the average core gamer to go out and pick it up. The PS3 bump could help this game out a lot though. New PS3 gamers getting the system, looking around for the new exclusive games etc.
If it doesn't get over ~400k then I think that it could end up far down the list. I think there's going to be a lot of games at that ~400k level. Wii Sports Resort I think could stay around there and Wii Fit Plus with its low price point could certainly climb that high.
Also in general for next month don't forget Mario and Sonic at the Winter Games! I think it'll get into the chart at something in the bottom half.
manueldelalas
Time Traveler
I award your graph three loling smilies:typhonsentra said:
:lol :lol :lol
I think being a "fan" of a system is just stupid and childish, and honestly makes no sense.
"Yay, my favorite console sold half a million units this month. I will never see a dime of that money, and it benefits me in no real way. But this made my week, yay."
I'll never understand it.
"Yay, my favorite console sold half a million units this month. I will never see a dime of that money, and it benefits me in no real way. But this made my week, yay."
I'll never understand it.
Dr Bad Dude PHD
Banned
I thought Forza 3 would be a shoe in to top October NPD's?
charlequin
Banned
Htown said:
Yeah, it can't possibly have hurt the RE shooters that there was that RE4 port beforehand.
jvm said:
Representative as in "'we now know for certain that DD sales of GTP are < 3k"? No. But I think it's entirely fair to read a good amount into this -- some reasonably significant portion of DD sales are going to happen without ongoing access to a credit card, so these cards are going to be necessary for that. If they're this low, it really does suggest that DD sales overall are extremely soft.
I mean, historically speaking, people like buying these cards for DD products and stores like selling 'em. The TLAD card sold a ton. So absolutely miniscule sales for them here strongly suggests that there just isn't that much interest.
timetokill said:
Precisely. Let's look at many of the PSP's "'big" games: GoW. GT. LBP. Motorstorm. Ratchet. Jak. What do these games all have in common? They're crappy, spun-off versions of games that are basically the same, only significantly better, on PS2 and/or PS3.
The value in owning a PSP is almost entirely in its more unique titles -- stuff like Exit and Crush, Patapon and Locoroco. The console-castoff stuff, far from raising the system from the "handheld ghetto," just makes it seem like a TJ Maxx shopper, picking up the irregular castoffs from home console gaming.
Opiate said:
Yep. Moreso even than "risk aversion," though, this is a serious case of path dependence. Wii development breaks the paths that are well-worn into your standard large publisher's approach to each new product, and so is inherently less likely to happen even for a publisher superficially interested in taking "risks."
chubigans said:
Yeah, somehow I don't think the PSP is going to do better when it's competing directly against Nintendo and Apple.
AniHawk said:
Yep. These price points are continuing to strangle mid-range titles on home consoles. (And the $30 starting price for DS games is, I am certain, a big part of why games like Scribblenauts can succeed purely on the back of word-of-mouth hype.)
gofreak said:
It's extraordinarily easy, which is part of why the $60 pricepoint is such a problem. I own ten retail 360 games; I paid $24 for Bioshock and less than $20 for everything else.
Crisco said:
The number of companies making an annual profit, or the total number of viable publishers in each market (they've gone way down)? The average budget of any given title on a home console, or the total number of systems competing for turf (they've gone way up)? The rise of threats to traditional console gaming like MMOs, the iPhone, etc.?
I mean, Jesus, what a dumb question to ask.
Opiate said:
Neither do I, offhand; I have trouble imagining it will come out on top of ODST, WSR, Forza, etc.
What... are you comparing this to?
plagiarize
Banned
Mario and Sonic at the Winter Olympics... I'd be surprised if it does half the numbers of the original for a few reasons.
1: The original was more marketable given that it was the first time the two ever featured in the same game. There was a lot of free press around this.
2: The winter olympics are not nearly as marketable as the summer olympics.
3: The original wasn't that great and this one will have to overcome that reputation.
4: Wii Sports Resort is I think recent enough to take a lot of sales from it too... no motion + support really hurts any sports type collection post Wii Sports Resort I expect.
you never know though.
1: The original was more marketable given that it was the first time the two ever featured in the same game. There was a lot of free press around this.
2: The winter olympics are not nearly as marketable as the summer olympics.
3: The original wasn't that great and this one will have to overcome that reputation.
4: Wii Sports Resort is I think recent enough to take a lot of sales from it too... no motion + support really hurts any sports type collection post Wii Sports Resort I expect.
you never know though.
mr_bishiuk
Banned
igotnewsuper8 systemWRONG! said:
Can not see that myself, I reckon approx 500k but that will not be enougth to be number 1 imo
Dr Bad Dude PHD
Banned
:loltyphonsentra said:
SDF always deliver with their representation of Wii gamers
RSTEIN said:
They're all about equally stupid. Embarassing wii fans get hyped to high-heaven about games they haven't even seen screenshots of, sometimes even by studios they know nothing about, essentially because they like the IP behind the game or sometimes just its title. Did you see the Wii Music thread last year? There were people saying "I'll play and love this because Miyamoto is behind this and everything Miyamoto does is good."
Embarassing 360 fans will not just rationalize, but outright defend anything Microsoft does, including things like Live or peripheral prices. Gears of War 2 or Halo 3 were just as embarassing, hype-wise, as KZ2 (though maybe not Uncharted).
The upside is that both these breeds of fans have something they can use to feel superior over other gamers (install-base lead, or HD install-base lead) and that seems to pacify them, like a security blanket, but they still flip out stupidly all the time. Sony fans have nothing of the sort so maybe they flip out more. (Just look at all the pathetic 'this forum is <fanbase> biased' whinging we've seen lately, from all fronts.)
Shurs said:
I was surprised when I read a little while ago that Tekken 5 had sold three million copies world wide. It certainly deserved it, just didn't think there was as much widespread enthusiasm left for 3D fighters.
I don't know about Tekken 6 charting with evenly split sales. It it comes out at the end of the month, and of the late October releases I'd expect only Forza 3 and GTA Liberty City Episodes to chart with only a few days of sales.
elrechazado
Banned
obonicus said:
bzzzt, wrong. As an avowed halo hater, I'd love for that to be right so I could have my feelings vindicated, but....not. even. close.
Arpharmd B
Banned
I've read a good bit, and I don't think this has been touched on yet.
This is, correct me if I'm wrong, the first month that Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii didn't chart top ten. I don't even see Kart in the top 20. Is there an explanation for this?
Also, how down YOY is Nintendo this month? IIRC September last year was almost double that.
It appears to me that Wii is on a rapid decline and has been for quite some time. I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about this.
This is, correct me if I'm wrong, the first month that Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii didn't chart top ten. I don't even see Kart in the top 20. Is there an explanation for this?
Also, how down YOY is Nintendo this month? IIRC September last year was almost double that.
It appears to me that Wii is on a rapid decline and has been for quite some time. I'm surprised there isn't more discussion about this.
obonicus said:
You're forgetting stuff like The Conduit, LBP, and Shadowrun as far as irrational megahype goes. Oh god especially Shadowrun. I think that hype more than anything was fueled by system wars bullshit.
Heck, sometimes it's not even system wars. Some people just like to hype up whatever flavor of the month catches their fancy system be damned. Case-in-point: Borderlands.
cooljeanius
Member
Good top 20. Good to see KH and Scribblenauts placing highly. Wii Fit is probably dropping because people were waiting for Wii Fit Plus to come out.jvm said:
Are we talking strictly sales here? Gears 2 and Halo 3 were big sellers. Gears 2, Halo 3, KZ2, and LBP were all extremely well reviewed so I'm not sure how they were overhyped in that case. The retroactive KZ2 bashing is strange considering it has a higher review average than ODST. Again if you are talking just sales, than yeah, Sony let a lot of potential hits slip through the cracks with their earlier hardware pricing. Looking at all of the AIAS GOTY winners, I think LBP easily sold the least of any of them.
elrechazao said:
Maybe it was more justified, since Microsoft went insane on the marketing for H3 while KZ2 it was mostly self-fueled, but they were about as big and stupid as each other. There weren't H3 gifs, because Halo 3 stills aren't that great to look at but you had people going utterly crazy over every little scrap of news being spoonfed to the fanboys.
DeaconKnowledge
Member
FINALLY.
I was waiting for blood when the numbers were posted, only to be disappointed yesterday. I knew GAF wouldn't let me down.
I was waiting for blood when the numbers were posted, only to be disappointed yesterday. I knew GAF wouldn't let me down.
elrechazado
Banned
obonicus said:
the kz2 hype was like a flesh eating bacteria that went into every thread, everywhere. I guess we're talking about two different things. Halo hype was a big marketing campaign. KZ2 was annoying fanboys rampaging all over the forums in and out of every single thread like soccer hooligans.
gregor7777
Banned
Shadowrun was one guy, and he was tagged appropriately. :lol
Maybe it's just me, but people being hyped for a game isn't what got KZ2 it's reputation around here.
Bioshock would probably be the counterpoint with its word filter and all here at GAF, but one of the words being filtered was Halo, so maybe that's not a good example after all. :lol
Maybe it's just me, but people being hyped for a game isn't what got KZ2 it's reputation around here.
Bioshock would probably be the counterpoint with its word filter and all here at GAF, but one of the words being filtered was Halo, so maybe that's not a good example after all. :lol
Ultimo hombre
Banned
elrechazao said:
He won't get the difference....he just wants to be right.
Mooreberg said:
There's only one game this entire generation that got a unrealistic amount of hype beforehand with relatively little backlash afterwards and that's Mario Galaxy. Was it deserved? I still don't think so, but I think that's the closest we're ever going to get to absurd unrealistic expectations being met.
obonicus said:
Than what is it vindicated by? Have you seen the Halo 3 thread or some of the LBP stuff that was created by people on here? :lol
Those games are rare examples of products living up to what the fan base wanted out of them. Overhype would be the current spate of PSP games that are reviewing decently but not terrificly (Gran Turismo, Soul Calibur, etc) or third party Wii games that any rational person knew would be mediocre based on the development team's track record.
Arpharmd B
Banned
botticus said:
It's up month over month, well, yeah. That's a given.
It's down YOY though. Last year Wii sold 687k to this years 462k. 200k isn't something to sneeze at. Sales are still "good" but they are not amazing like they were last year and 2007. Is everyone expecting things to go back to normal next month when the price drop is factored?
elrechazado
Banned
Luckyman said:
You think UC2 will debut at 1million +? That's bold
Count Dookkake
Member
Remember when GAF consensus was that the first Mario & Sonic game would bomb?
That was awesome.
That was awesome.
elrechazao said:
That's not strictly true. They'd rampage into every single system wars thread. AFAICT the mods are more lenient in those threads. Also, and I don't mean to defend the behavior, but the KZ2 gif was used generally as 'Oh yeah, so you say the PS3 sucks technically? Well, KZ2 says you're wrong, sucker! Look at the gorgeousness!'. As in, KZ2 was used less as 'GOTF' and more as '10-year plan', which generally missed the point anyway. It was a meme-argument, more or less like (but more annoying than) 'lol no unified memory', or, later on 'lol KZ2.gif'. (Well, there was Wollan and Hoffman, but they got perma'd -- are they representative of the fanbase as a whole?)
I'm distinguishing that from "Guerilla Games say they like to drink strawberry smoothies while they work"-type news stories which would attract comments 'ZOMG I love smoothes, best shooter ever! RAWR!!111'. That sort of nonsense was easily matched by H3.
gregor7777 said:
I wouldn't say there are more Sony Fans around its just they are the loudest and most annoying.
As a Primary PC gamer than owns both of the HD consoles I have never once been annoyed by these so called 'xbots'.
The Sony Defense Force makes me stay away from GAF for the most part though. I am not the only person that thinks this way either.
jman2050 said:
Fair enough I suppose. When I think "overhype" my mind automatically jumps to stuff like Assassin's Creed and Prototype. Relentless coverage based on no real merits of the game, review scores averaging in the low 80's to high 70's, and enough manufactured hype from the publisher to make it a seller. I'm not the biggest fan in the world of any of the games being mentioned but they are all far more deserving of the success than some of the crap that has sold well in this hardware cycle.
Mooreberg said:
Well my main point was that the nature of this forum lends itself to people overhyping themselves, especially given how effective large-scale marketing can be to many people here. I'm also implying that this isn't just a Sony fanboy thing. The KZ2 hype was a direct product of its supposed graphical fidelity, and while I can't properly quantify the Wollan Effect, I imagine events would have played out similarly had it been a 360 game that looked like that.
gregor7777
Banned
Luckyman said:
I doubt that very much.
Do we have any preliminary sales number? PR stuff?
Count Dookkake
Member
:lol
That Farley sketch was exactly what I modeled my post on.
That Farley sketch was exactly what I modeled my post on.
gregor7777
Banned
jett said:
Really? I thought it was over a million.
Well, that makes it more realistic, though I still say it will sell well under that.
Dragona Akehi
Retired
jett said:
You say this when Sony has Kittonwy?
Honestly every single camp is full of retards.
I've always thought the answer to 'which way is GAF biased?' was very much dependent on one's own perspective and biases (and thus increased sensitivity to the percieved opposite bias of others)
I would say, however, that it seems to me that the Sony 'faction' here, that Sony threads here, garner far more attention from the other factions here than vice versa...recent Forza/GT rivalry being a notable exception. So if you don't like 'the sony group' then...don't go into Sony threads and give that attention to them?
Perhaps I'm wrong and informed by own bias and perspective, however!
I think this thread has also confirmed to me that different (small) parts of different factions can be just as crazy as that (small) part of the Sony fan-group has been touted to be in recent times, once the heat is turned back on them in terms of sales performance. I find it very interesting that for all camps, it seems sales performance brings out the greatest sensitivities.
I would say, however, that it seems to me that the Sony 'faction' here, that Sony threads here, garner far more attention from the other factions here than vice versa...recent Forza/GT rivalry being a notable exception. So if you don't like 'the sony group' then...don't go into Sony threads and give that attention to them?
Perhaps I'm wrong and informed by own bias and perspective, however!
I think this thread has also confirmed to me that different (small) parts of different factions can be just as crazy as that (small) part of the Sony fan-group has been touted to be in recent times, once the heat is turned back on them in terms of sales performance. I find it very interesting that for all camps, it seems sales performance brings out the greatest sensitivities.