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NYMag: Trump Budget Based on $2 Trillion Math Error

JordanN

Banned
Also, Simpsons right again.

mS5gc85.jpg
 
Yeah, 'mistake'.... they know there's a massive hole in that budget, he just wants to pass something he can claim to have designed.


Nathan
 
I mean worst comes to worst Trump just has to print more money; He still has the press at Trump tower he just needs someone who knows russian to operate it.
 
I wouldn't call it a mistake. I don't think anyone who have done math in high school will suddenly end up with 2 trillion dollars out of no where? It's on purpose to make the tax more appealing while Trump shoves it in people's throat initially. He doesn't care if the government falls apart in the next 10 years because fuck regulation? right?
 

Des0lar

will learn eventually
From Reddit:
To be clear, it's actually a $4T error.

They assume a $2T cut in taxes will spur so much growth that it's not only budget neutral, but actually increases revenue by $2T.

No data, no evidence, no experts, supports this as being in the realm of possibility. It's based on assumptions so flawed they're laughable. Knowing that, it's actually $4T off of estimates.
> To be clear, it's actually a $4T error.

It's actually closer to a ~$7.5T math "error". Tax cuts are ~$5.5T revenue loss. They "forgot" to include that loss in the budget, but they included a $2T gain in revenue from the economy supposedly being spurred by those tax-cuts.

https://twitter.com/SethHanlon/status/866844117187342337
Welp
 

Pie and Beans

Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
Fake maths, my favourite. Grab it by the alge-bra.
 

Woo-Fu

Banned
If I can balance a checkbook why can't Obummer balance America!?

It is impossible to balance the budget *and* get re-elected. You'd be talking huge program cuts and huge tax increases to get even close. There, you've alienated both the Democrats and the Republicans----and everybody else who wants somebody else to pay for what a balanced budget would cost.
 

iavi

Member
This joke of an administration man. The silver lining is that in all these months of absolutely nothing getting done, status quo from the Obama admin for the economy has been rolling along

Markets are still good
 
Maybe Walmart could afford to pay their employees more after the tax cuts. Have all that wealth trickle down once the rich get sick of having too much money.
 
All it's going to take is for growth to be off a fraction of a percent to throw this entire thing into the dumpster. I also don't think people are taking retail contraction as serious as they should. It has the capacity to drown other gains.
 

Ocara

Member
I havent followed budget proposals for long but is it normal to just expect the economy is going to generate some specific amount of money over a time period due to budget changes? With the number of factors in the US economy that seems akin to gambling. What data would possibly back that up?

I might be assuming too much in thinking that it was attempting to be anything more than a blustering show for... someone. Certainly not the base he'd be gutting with these changes.
 
I havent followed budget proposals for long but is it normal to just expect the economy is going to generate some specific amount of money over a time period due to budget changes? With the number of factors in the US economy that seems akin to gambling. What data would possibly back that up?

Sure. There are models that do a decent job of presenting modest numbers that allow budget proposals to be reasonable and flexible.

Trump admin is straight up slangin' pixie dust.
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
It's amazing to me that trickle-down economics is a thing that's taken even remotely seriously. Even more so because the reason this became popularized in the first place was because of Saint Reagan, even though, if you look at the data, 1) his tax cuts never came close to paying for themselves and 2) any economic growth that occurred almost 100% had nothing to do with tax cuts.

On no.1, Reagan's promise on tax cuts increasing revenue failed so badly that he had no choice but to enact massive tax hikes only a year later. On no. 2) the massive growth that Reagan got during his presidency was almost entirely due to the fed lowering interest rates and not his shitty tax cuts. I mean, if you look at the data, the growth/reductions in economic activity coincide nearly perfectly. When Reagan enacted the first round of tax cuts in 1981, for nearly an entirely year, there were still millions of jobs being lost (not saying his tax cuts caused those job losses, but they didn't do shit to stop them either). But when the fed lowered the interest rates in late 1982, growth began almost immediately. So either the tax cuts just needed a year to get into their groove and just coincidentally happened to start working once the fed lowered interest rates, or, and just hear me out, the tax cuts didn't have shit to do with anything!

It's also even more aggravating because Reagan's economic growth wasn't even the best during the time. Jimmy Carter, "history's greatest monster" before Obummer took the mantle, presided over 10 million jobs in 4 years, compared to Reagan's 16 million in 8. And that happened under Carter's way higher 70%+ top tax rates. Then you had Clinton, who also jacked up rates higher than what they were before Reagan left office, which every Republican said would lead to economic destruction, but in fact, led to the greatest job growth period in history.

I mean sure, TDE seems like it's not so far fetched to work if taxes are too high. Indeed, the one time that tax MAY have worked, might have been under Kennedy, where the top tax rate went from 90% to 77%. Sure, one could MAYBE make the case that 90% was indeed too high and was becoming counterproductive. But even if we agree on that, as far as I can tell, it is literally the only time in U.S. history that such a thing worked. Every other time it's been implemented, whether under Reagan, Bush II, Brownback in Kansas, Walker in Wisconsin, Christie in New Jersey, Rick Scott in Florida, Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, whoever the hell runs Oklahoma, and countless other right-wing examples, they have ALL repeatedly LOST revenue, EVERY. SINGLE. TIME.

UGH!
 

Oblivion

Fetishing muscular manly men in skintight hosery
I mean, shit, even Art Laffer, the asshole who came up with this shit, said that after Kansas' economy failed to soar to the stratosphere that people shouldn't be impatient, and that to feel the full effects of the magical economy charging tax cuts would take TEN YEARS to do so.
 

Kaako

Felium Defensor
Can't do anything else but smdh at this point. These clowns are gonna run it into the ground at an exponential rate.
 
Almost nothing will ever surprise me again after this Presidency. He could jab a man's eye out and fuck the hole while singing Don't Cry for Me, Argentina on live television and then claim it was a CG hoax and it would feel like par for the course.

I will wave this administration in the face of anyone who now and for all time ever attempts to argue that intelligence, discipline, dignity, professionalism, honor, values, character, literacy, or the ability to count in single integers are in any way whatsoever necessary to run for public office.
 

TAJ

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Looks like a $4 trillion mistake from where I'm sitting.
 
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