Oh look, a Luddite
(NYTIMES) Publishers look to Barnes & Noble to save them from Amazon
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Oh look, a Luddite
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
The way I put it is usually this: when America went through an industrial revolution, and later got outpaced in manufacturing elsewhere globally, we transitioned into a service based economy. Working at the factory turned into working at a Starbucks.
The problem now is that we're slowly beginning to automate the service industry as well. We've seen the first crude attempts to automate call centers and self checkouts (and the entire physical retail industry with, surprise surprise, Amazon) and other service jobs, and I see no reason to think that they won't get better in the next two decades.
So...where is the next great work migration? Labor to service to...where?
I will employ your value adding services once you are freed from your publishing house - payment up front if I can afford it, or as a % of book sales. We can negotiate.
In the mean time, think about how you can promote your value adding services to the market of authors in a way that would make them appreciative of having a guy like you around.
Rethink the nature of economics at its core.
Is money (short hand for fungible resource distribution) the only metric for incentivizing positive human behaviour? Is it even the most effective one?
Hopes for the E-Book future:
1. Cross platform (which is already true to a decent extent) - use it on the PC, on your iPad, on your Android, on your PS3, on your future HMD.
2. Exploit digital format - pretty much like Apple does for newstand magazines. Moving Images/videos, non-traditional paper bound formating, rotation, hyperlinks, etc.
3. Basic and obvious interactivity made easy - annotations, book marking - easy as scribbling onto the 'book' - turning it on and off, and expanding it outside the page if you want to continue on with the ideas. Then collate and turn the annotations into data - notes in text form, or jpgs, with a note and a link to where it was written in the book and the context.
4. Extend this interactivity onto the 'net - a wikipedia style substrate for editing annotations (not book content). The idea is that books can have crowd-sourced value adding - books can be illustrated with imagery, diagrams, hyperlinks, community discussion, etc.
In the face of a future with ideas like this... paper bound books are quickly looking anachronistic. The people and businesses that stand by them unflinchingly, holding onto them for dear life with similarly become outmoded with their decline.
Also, retail can die in a fire. Visual, social, spiritual mass pollutants of the 20th century. Send it all to the internet and shipping warehouses. Retain a few high class show room for products that excite people - but reclaim the rest of the retail spaces with new businesses and areas that promote local community socialization.
1. Cross platform (which is already true to a decent extent) - use it on the PC, on your iPad, on your Android, on your PS3, on your future HMD.
2. Exploit digital format - pretty much like Apple does for newstand magazines. Moving Images/videos, non-traditional paper bound formating, rotation, hyperlinks, etc.
3. Basic and obvious interactivity made easy - annotations, book marking - easy as scribbling onto the 'book' - turning it on and off, and expanding it outside the page if you want to continue on with the ideas. Then collate and turn the annotations into data - notes in text form, or jpgs, with a note and a link to where it was written in the book and the context.
4. Extend this interactivity onto the 'net - a wikipedia style substrate for editing annotations (not book content). The idea is that books can have crowd-sourced value adding - books can be illustrated with imagery, diagrams, hyperlinks, community discussion, etc.
In the face of a future with ideas like this... paper bound books are quickly looking anachronistic. The people and businesses that stand by them unflinchingly, holding onto them for dear life with similarly become outmoded with their decline.
Also, retail can die in a fire. Visual, social, spiritual mass pollutants of the 20th century. Send it all to the internet and shipping warehouses. Retain a few high class show room for products that excite people - but reclaim the rest of the retail spaces with new businesses and areas that promote local community socialization.
AtomskEater
Member
I kind of agree with this, as I was really on the fence about it and then I got a Kindle and I love it. I still tend to just find a used copy if the ebook version costs >5 or 6 dollars, and I still really enjoy paper books, but ebooks are lovely and convenient for a number of reasons.
Most of this conversation is going above my head, but I hope both physical and digital mediums exist for quite some time to come.
Sirpopopop
Member
Yep, that's part of the problem. There's a reason the service based industry is viewed as the end of the line. It's entirely based around people having disposable income. It also offered lower wages than manufacturing.
In this era, where efficiency and price matters more than service, we all know what's going to be cut.
Sirpopopop
Member
There is a zero percent chance of money ever being removed from the equation.
As long as the U.S. & China aren't interested in vastly changing their economic models, the "Kindle" problem (which is the term I am going to use to describe the giant mess of automation and the loss of jobs) is going to be an issue.
I don't think the U.S. has any shot at all of addressing this problem in a tangible way. (See: It would be viewed as helping "lazy" people.) China, on the other hand, they may have a shot...
Well, each revolution had it's share of collateral damage. We are actually going through the process now with the use of inexpensive immigrant labor in place of low skilled US labor. There was alos the end of lifelong employment that started taking shape in the 80's and the standard now. Each change has always been bloody economically for the ones left behind or the ones disinterested in keeping up.
One thing that always happens though is economic life finds away. The economy cannot be sustained on total automation so eventually there is always a break even point between jobs and advancement. The government also usually steps in to stop the bleeding a bit too.
To me, the next leap would have to be from service to IT/communication, but that a ways off. Amazon still employs a ton of people that are solely there for physical labor not to mention their primary source of revenue still involves shipping real material (Logistics is probably going to be big too come to think about it). It's primarily the customer experience & logistics that is high tech.
afternoon delight
Member
Some of us have to stare at computer screens all goddamn day and prefer print.
Sirpopopop
Member
The shipping jobs are low-wage low-skill jobs. They are not a true replacement for anything. They are also horrible jobs that force people into barely humane conditions.
As for service to IT/Communication. You don't need as many people involved in IT work as you do in service work. It's not going to be a 1:1 ratio of job transferal.
Same thing with logistics - at nearly every company the amount of people working in logistics is dwarfed by the amount of labor involved in jobs that are threatened by automation, or are low-skill, nearly min. wage options.
I like both experiences although I hate reading on what is essentially a monitor. I only like the Kindle like screens for reading. Anything that shines a light back on me is annoying and feels unnatural no matter how much better I like holding the reader.
If I had my druthers, I would prefer paper and I also think paper is better for the industry. E-books should be a complement to the physical book. I cannot bring myself to pay full price for an e-book that I pay for a physical book when a physical book is, to use a banking term, far more liquid.
Sums it up better.afternoon delight said:
Baconsammy
Banned
An e-reader screen isn't remotely anything like a computer screen.
Amazon pays pretty decent for what should be a low wage job. Nomads actually come to the one here and park for a couple of months and work there during the Xmas season meaning they don't even have to layoff people. Since it is a huge part of their business, there are several layers of advancement one can make there too.
Service will never entirely disappear. Too many people like the personal experience and there will never be a robot that can truly sell. So even as things become more automated, live people will still have to be around for support & sales if nothing else as the more educated take the back end jobs. As an advancement becomes the norm, jobs will be created to support the growth even if not at the same rate as the service industry. When jobs dry up, advancement does too so there will always come a point that jobs and advancement balance out unless only rich people start buying stuff, overpopulation becomes an unsustainable problem, or Robopocalypse actually happens.
The big problem is so many people follow a belief (Even among the educated) that what you trained for is what you should stay in. That may be ideal, but one still needs to prepare to switch.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Word of mouth, good reviews, keyword searching. Or I've spent tons of time wandering books on my Kindle starting from one that I've read or looks interesting and looking at the "People who bought this also bought" lists.jamesinclair said:
I... read that. It was cheap and time travel that wasn't of the "Modern woman and medieval European have romance" type that seems all over Kindle, so I thought I'd give it a try. Kinda creepy in a bad way, though.Freshmaker said:
Buddha Beam
Banned
Freelancing and going into business for yourself.
It's where everybody is going now. Whether you're a web designer, chef, programmer, trucker, whatever... More and more people are taking matters into their own hands and going into business for themselves.
I read an article a few months ago predicting a new New Deal within the next decade with an emphasis on freelancers rights and whatnot. Seems about right to me.
Pretty much every single piece of entertainment will be screen based, not just books. Literally everything in your life. It's part of the evolution of tech.
Mammoth Jones
Member
Adapt or die. No business "deserves" to stay on top forever if they aren't embracing new technology when it emerges to make their products redundant
adamsappel
Member
You are not doing your argument against agents and publishers any good with typo-riddled posts.
Mike Works
Member
It's already been touched on, but looking at an e-reader screen is (visually) pretty much the exact same as looking at a printed page, at least in terms of "damage" done to your eyes.
The e-ink Kindle (and I assume the Nook) is not a computer screen. For all intents and purposes, it's like looking at a book. The difference is indiscernible.
The point remains that even when they start publishing works, I would be shocked if they only sold their works on their site or on the Kindle. It would be the beginnings of an anti-trust lawsuit. No one is going to forget what happened to Microsoft.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Well...
The e-ink screens are just like paper. It is something you have to actually see and use for a few minutes to get. It is nothing like a computer screen. (Hugs Nook touch model)
The e-ink screen is still a monitor in that it is a screen. It is nothing like paper except in look which is great. I think people are also missing the fact that some like the feel of holding a book in their hands and turning pages and storing them on a bookshelf and whatnot. There really is little inconvenience in actually owning a book so it's kind of funny when ones can't figure out why it's OK to like both.
It's not because of a lack of knowledge about e-ink screens in my case. I like books and don't feel like I'm getting the same value with the e-book form. It would be great to have both but if I'm paying same price, I'm going with the real book. The publishers know this but they also have to know that Kindle has caused me to read more altogether but not necessarily in a way that's been financially beneficial to them. I did buy Scrabble & Monopoly though.
beelzebozo
Jealous Bastard
actually, i would argue there kinda is. even a written page is much more prone to having shadows cast on it, and is pretty awkward to hold when the pages-read to pages-to-read ratio is wildly disproportionate. hell, even turning the damn page is much much easier on a kindle, though i would acquiesce this last point is not of much consequence, unless you're someone who reads while out of doors and don't want to take off warm winter gloves to turn the page of your book (this happens to be the case for me).
nonetheless, having something that doesn't constantly have shadow cast all over it and that feels uniform and comfortable in my hands is a huge deal. ADDITIONALLY, an e-reader makes reading internet and magazine articles about 100 times more enjoyable. long internet articles are not things i have to sit at my stupid computer leaning on my elbow for an hour to read--i shoot them to my kindle and read them while i'm sitting outside, or walking on the treadmill. i switch from novel to essay to article back to my novel, depending on my current whim, and all that stuff is always with me.
the allure is undeniable.
i still like books, but the truth is, switching to kindle increased my reading tenfold. the proof is in the pudding. it's made reading much more enjoyable for me, and everyone i've ever known who has bought one.
Marty Chinn
Member
For me what it comes down to is linear books, e-reader all the way. Non-linear and visual books, physical all the way.
beelzebozo
Jealous Bastard
yes, that's a good way of putting it. i got this hanna-barbera treasury recently that is INCREDIBLE, and it has lots of inserts and cool visual things going on that demand to be held. i can definitely see how very visual books--kids' books included--are better physical.
Baconsammy
Banned
Sure there is. Weight. It's not unusual for me to be reading thousand-page books. Try carrying multiples of those and a laptop through airports. It sucks. It's also nice being able to adjust font size on my kindle if my eyes are bothering me. I get that some people enjoy the feel of books, and looking at them in a bookshelf, but I don't give a darn about any of that. Life's too short for me to collect things. I buy a book, I read it, I move on to the next. E-books are perfect for me in that regard. And when I move, I don't have tons of boxes of heavy books carry.
It's definitely OK to like both, but it's far more convenient to carry 1 Kindle than it is to carry hundreds of books. Not to mention the fact that at any time I want to I can sample the first chapter of any book I want.
I love my Kindle too. My reading has increased way more, but I can't tell a different in comfort level and it's more along the lines of keeping track of a pricey electronic gadget over a cheap used book. There's nothing in particular about Kindle that makes reading more entertaining except it's ability to mimic a book pretty well. Basically I've read about 6 physical books and about 5 Kindle books since summer, but the Kindle books have been since around Thanksgiving.
The shadow (Which I don't encounter too much) is no different than glare to me and the biggest annoyance of my Kindle is seeing my reflection in it. Drives me bonkers.
An e-ink reader is NOTHING like looking at a computer monitor. You've obviously never bothered to even look at an e-ink screen to make such a comparison.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
Yes
Baconsammy
Banned
Yeah, if the iPad screen didnt kill my eyes after about a half hour of reading it would be the perfect device. Access to all the major e-book sites.
PhoncipleBone
Banned
I had an iPad for nine months before getting an e-ink Nook. The killer for me was not the LCD screen, but the size of the damn device. However, I do greatly prefer the e-ink screen for reading. I did read tons of comics on my ipad.
What is sad to me is I remember reading that the Nook Tablet and Nook Color have basically killed off the regular Nook sales that they were way under B&N's expectations. And then Kindle Fire easily outselling all the e-ink Kindle sales combined....
I really hope all of this doesn't lead to the eventual death of e-ink.
I really hope all of this doesn't lead to the eventual death of e-ink.
Wiktor
Member
Really? Got any link to that? At the conference Amazon expected e-ink sales to dwarf Kindle ones.
Can't remember where but there was a sales report a few weeks ago that showed Kindle Fires make up over 50% of all Kindle sales since it's release.
Wiktor
Member
beelzebozo
Jealous Bastard
speaking anecdotally, i see a LOT of people who would never own a kindle e-reader in my day-to-day life carrying around kindle fires. a few people i know got kindle touches.
the fire does seem to be the affordable ipad for the people in my social sphere, at least.
the fire does seem to be the affordable ipad for the people in my social sphere, at least.
VistraNorrez
Member
It shouldn't, Bezos loves e-ink.
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