Yeah, it's a shame he missed the best NPD thread in months. What did he do this time?CTLance said:Man, Crushed would've had a field day in this thread. Shame he's banned. Again.(
Yeah, it's a shame he missed the best NPD thread in months. What did he do this time?CTLance said:Man, Crushed would've had a field day in this thread. Shame he's banned. Again.(
RJT said:Yeah, it's a shame he missed the best NPD thread in months. What did he do this time?
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Next-Gen.biz said:Matt Matthews offers up in-depth analysis of this month's NPD stats. Here you'll find new perspective on the launch of GTA IV, in a historical framework. Also, detailed insight into the strange twists and turns in the hardware race. If you only read one feature this month, make sure it's this one...
Expectations ran high Thursday as the NPD Group released its figures for April 2008 videogame sales. Both Sony and Microsoft representatives had spoken publicly about increases in hardware sales alongside the release of Grand Theft Auto 4. The actual figures were shockingly low: neither the Xbox 360 nor the PlayStation 3 had sold more than 190,000 units during the April period.
Even more amazing, the Nintendo Wii had sold in excess of 700,000 systems for the month. As we tour the April 2008 numbers for hardware and software, we'll cover the overall console race, possible price drops, historical perspective on the launch figures for Grand Theft Auto 4, and try to estimate how much of the market value we can attribute to each of the big three Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony.
The Microsoft Outlook
While Microsoft indicated it saw an increase in Xbox 360 sales alongside the launch of GTA4, sales for the month were lower than many expected. Some analysts have indicated that the expected bump in hardware sales will appear in the May sales figures. Regardless, the pressure is now on Microsoft to drop its prices.
Looking back, Microsoft chose to maintain the launch pricing of the Xbox 360 from November 2005 until August 2007. Apparently this resistance to price cutting helped push the Xbox project into the black, as had been previously promised. However, given the jump in sales after the price drop, Microsoft may have held its own platform back and lost significant ground to the Nintendo Wii in the meantime.
Microsoft probably should have cut the price of the Xbox 360 in February of this year. With a surefire product like GTA4 imminent, such a price cut would have spurred sales and set the stage for a very strong April. Remember that by the time Vice City launched on the PS2, that console was selling for only $200. However, if we take Microsoft's claim of hardware shortages earlier this year at face value, then it is entirely possible that an earlier price drop would simply have exacerbated its uncomfortable position. That is, it would have been in the embarrassing situation of dropping prices while not being able to offer the system to consumers.
Microsoft still has a strong software portfolio, and both Madden NFL 09 and Gears of War 2 should sell very well in the second half of the year. Provided its supply issues have been worked out, Microsoft should drop its hardware prices by $50 across the board. In doing so, it will undercut the Nintendo Wii while also putting downward pressure on the PlayStation 3.
The Sony Outlook
Just last week Sony executives appeared to signal that a price drop was not in the cards for the PlayStation 3. In particular, Nobuyuki Oneda (Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer) said that Sony expected to ship around 10 million PS3 systems in the coming year (a very modest year-on-year increase) and that they did not think they would need to adjust prices to reach that shipment target. The motive here is profitability, perhaps at the expense of marketshare.
A look at the monthly sales figures for the PS3, however, reveals that when the rate drops low enough Sony is forced to make adjustments. Sony first adjusted in July 2007, after system sales had dropped for several months straight. After a short bump, PS3 sales began to decline again going into the Holiday 2007 period, and Sony reduced the top price of its system to $500 and introduced its $400 model. Now system sales are declining again, and if they continue through May, a summer price drop seems Sony's only option.
It does have the alternative of adding value to the PS3, and for once this doesn't mean packing a game in with the system. Sony has announced that it will begin to introduce a video service in the near future, perhaps as early as this summer. If the PlayStation 3 can position itself as a video-on-demand player with quality content, an inexpensive Blu-Ray player, as well as a machine that plays Grand Theft Auto 4, then Sony could well have a winning combination. This adjustment, however, will not attract consumers who simply do not (or cannot) spend $400 on an entertainment device, regardless of the features.
If the PSP and PlayStation 2 were still providing a strong foundation for Sony, then the PS3 might still have time to find its footing. However, April marks two months of decreasing weekly sales rates for all three of its hardware platforms. It is unclear how much longer Sony can rely on impressive sounding PlayStation brand sales figures after each month's NPD figures are released.
_____________________________________________________________________________The Nintendo Outlook
What to say about Nintendo that we haven't already said? Wii hardware sales have increased in tandem with increasing supply and Nintendo games are regularly taking several spots in the top 10 software chart. As noted last month, they are supplying their own big games on a regular basis and setting the standard for how to make successful software. The only thing they could do in addition to their current strategy is help more third parties break into the top 10.
The only question we have at this point is whether we will continue to see monthly declines in Nintendo DS hardware sales. Would Nintendo be more likely at this point to refresh the Nintendo DS hardware as it did in mid-2006, drop the price of the existing system, or look toward a new handheld?
With such robust hardware and software sales, it will be interesting to watch how well-received Wii Fit is during May. Expect a lot of discussion to be generated should Wii Fit make the top 10 software chart in May.
Marketshare Estimates: Nintendo on Top
Recently we have been interested in what share of the market can be attributed to each of the big three (Microsoft, Nintendo, and Sony). In January and February of this year, Microsoft's press releases gave monthly consumer spending data on the Xbox 360 (including software and accessories), as well as cumulative LTD consumer spending on the Xbox 360. In March and April, however, only the LTD figures appeared in Microsoft's press materials. Here is a possible explanation for the missing monthly spend figures: consumers are now spending more per month on the Nintendo Wii than they are on the Xbox 360.
By looking just at hardware sales and known software sales figures from the top 10, we can establish a minimum that consumers spent on the Wii in April 2008: $280 million. We estimate that at least $100 million more can be attributed to the Wii (from third party software and accessories), putting it close to $400 million, or nearly 1/3 of all videogame dollars spent during the month of April. Add in sales of Nintendo DS hardware (over $50 million) and Pokemon software (over $14 million) along with all other Nintendo DS software and Nintendo could easily have sold in excess of $500 million, nearing a majority of the videogame market for the month. (For the record, we have requested figures directly in the past, but the NPD Group does not supply this data to the press.)
We can get at the Nintendo figure another way: subtracting Microsoft's and Sony's marketshares from the total value of the market in April. According to Sony's press release last week, the PlayStation brand accounted for $387 million of sales for the month. Moreover, Microsoft's press releases have indicated that consumers had spent $9.4 billion on the Xbox 360 through the end of March and $9.7 billion on the Xbox 360 through the end of April. So the maximum value of the Xbox 360 market in April was $390 million. The remainder is over $450 million, and that should all belong to Nintendo.
Either way, it appears that Nintendo accounted for around $450 to $500 million of the videogame industry's revenue in April 2008. We will try to keep track of these figures in future months to see how these figures change.
shidoshi said:Obviously I don't want to say that I hope other gamers get screwed over just for my benefit, but I fear the mass exodus of companies and their games to the Wii should it happen. As somebody with an HDTV, I don't want to go back to the non-HD world anymore, and Nintendo's one decision in that regard ended up taking their console from an interesting new system to something I don't want to invest a lot of my gaming efforts into for me. I honestly thought that the lack of HD wouldn't be a big deal, but then I got my new TV, and I've just come to realize that I don't want that world anymore.
If we get a better balance of games going multi-platform, that'd be awesome. The Wii is getting really dumped on shovelware wise, and it deserves far better games. That said, I don't want it to be an exodus, and some of the games that have already gone Wii only (like Fatal Frame) tick me off. If a lot more titles start going to the Wii and only the Wii, I'll understand the reasoning for companies, but I'll hate the results.
norinrad21 said:I don't think you have an idea who huge this group actually is, look around for sales on the N64 and Gc and you will be on to something.
Tiktaalik said:I'll be the first to admit I don't know how big this group is. In my own personal experience I don't know any gamers at all who have just a Wii, but it would be silly to say they don't exist.
QFTNeomoto said:Third parties are full of shit (on Wii). They will not announce a slew of awesome games on E3. You know who will though? Nintendo. Again. Almost all their internal EAD teams, Retro and Intelligent Systems have been working on new Wii games quite some time (and if the rumours are believed Factor 5 on Kid Icarus). Aninal Crossing Wii and Wii Music are nearing completion since they will be out in Japan this year (Disaster: Day of Crisis too) and the other not even a handfull of titles are outsourced. So it'll be mostly new Nintendo games and a handfull of titles from third party's which we most likely already know most of.
Perhaps there will be some surprises (I hope so), but I wouldn't hold my breath. It's been more than 1.5 years of absolute crushing of the Wii. Halo 3 and GTA IV have come and Wii walked away unscratched while breaking history records and achieving incredible sales all while having massive shortages. And yet, what have third parties done so far? Inferior ports, ps2 and sometimes even psp ports, shovelware, shitty non-games and litterly a handfull of good titles. I have owned my Wii since launch and I love it, but it sure as hell not thanks to third parties.
It makes you wonder how stupid some of the mega publishers are. Not one has even tried one single "big" budget high profile game on Wi, yet continue to come with dumbass excuses or whatever and continue to release crap. Wii has proven itself in all directions, even that there is infact a vast market for core games (Wii's top 'core' games sales can easily compete with those on Xbox360).
If Nintendo's forecast for fiscal year 2009 holds true (I think they'll exceed it, since they are always conservative, and this is their first forecast at the beginning of the new fiscal year), they'll have a userbase of 50+ fucking million people. That would beat Xbox360 and PS3 total userbase by that time combined easily. Factor in the advantages of Wii development and you have to wonder what the fuck they are all doing. At least release a Wii version alongside x360 / ps3 version instead of nothing for fuck sake. Even fucking WiiWare is set to look much better than Wii's line-up from third parties.
Next Gen Biz said:Expect a lot of discussion to be generated should Wii Fit make the top 10 software chart in May
speedpop said:I think the biggest problem for PS3 and 360 is the fact that you essentially need to buy a HDTV and HDMI cables to experience it properly. Something that unless you are employed or born into a wealthy family, the experience of playing a somewhat cheap Wii is vastly superior than saving your hard-earnt pennies for the thrill of a HD rigged console.
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
I have a Wii, but neither a PS3 or a 360.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Tiktaalik said:I think a many of these publishers have experienced failure on previous Nintendo consoles and handhelds so often that even with the high install base of the Wii, it still doesn't look like a sure bet.
I think the demographics of Wii owners are maybe not that friendly. I've been thinking about it recently, and you can break the Wii owners into a few distinct groups. You have Wii's owned by children where their parents buy the games (a traditional audience on a Nintendo system), you have Wii's owned as 2nd (or 3rd) systems by hardcore gamers (us) and then you have new gamers brought in by Wii Sports etc. Finally, you have (hard?)core gamers that only have a Wii.
The first group is the traditional Nintendo kid audience. Parents know Nintendo games are good and safe and they get bought a lot. Sega has done well here with this group as well. I think you see 3rd parties try to make games for this group quite a bit, but the quality is all over the place, and Nintendo games still do well because the Nintendo logo is sort of like a quality seal to stand out from the crap.
Hardcore gamers with a Wii as a second system could probably appreciate a big budget game on the Wii, since these are the folks asking for it the most, but why even release it for them on the Wii? They have a 360 or PS3 as well so just release it on those consoles.
New gamers. A big unknown. How many of them just bought Wii Play and then just put it in the closet? How many have caught the Wii bug and have got Guitar Hero 3 and are planning to get Wii Fit? Would this group be served by a big budget game when most of the games they've bought are non-games? The one 3rd party title I've seen for this group that looks good and isn't a non-game is We Ski. It should be interesting to see how that does, since it hits all 4 groups really.
Does the final group exist? (hard?)core gamers that only have a Wii would certainly be crying out for a big budget title, but I have to wonder how large this group actually is. I feel at this point if you're a gamer that actually buys games at a decent rate you have more than a Wii. If you only have a Wii it means you're satisfied by one Nintendo game every 2-3 months and that can not be appealing to a 3rd party company that wants you to buy their game.
I've only really been thinking about Wii demographics and the breakdown since yesterday, so I'm still formulating my thoughts about it. If there's another group you think got missed jump in and add it.
Saint Gregory said:Should? What kind of massive undershipping to the U.S. would it take to make that happen?
According to official NPD data, which tracks North American console sales, the Xbox 360 took 30 months to reach the 10 million units sold milestone, 20 percent faster than the original Xbox, which didn't achieve the same mark until month 36.
As far as current gen systems go I only have a Wii. No plans to buy a 360 or PS3 either.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Saint Gregory said:Should? What kind of massive undershipping to the U.S. would it take to make that happen?
ghst said:All this, and Nintendo haven't even unleashed their two most popular (character based) IP's yet.
bigmakstudios said:What? A Mario game has already been released in Super Mario Galaxy... which IPs are you referring to?
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
dead souls said:As far as current gen systems go I only have a Wii. No plans to buy a 360 or PS3 either.
ghst said:Pokemon and Animal Crossing. I'm talking sales wise.
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Well here's one. And I'm not planning to get a PS3 or XBox 360, I simply don't need those consoles (there's very few games on those consoles that interest me). I mainly play Nintendo games, and even then I don't have time for all of the big titles either (hell, I still don't have Fire Emblem or Mario Kart for example, although they both are must-have titles for me). Sure there's some 3rd party titles even on Wii that I'm interested in (like Zack & Wiki), but like I said, I don't even have time (and at the moment, money) for all of the Nintendo titles.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Pureauthor said:Pokemon Battle Revolution already came out, and you're not getting a full-fledged Pokemon console game, so don't bother wishing for it.
ghst said:Pokemon and Animal Crossing. I'm talking sales wise.
Andrex said:I'm pretty sure Mario Kart is gonna dwarf any sales AC has, unless AC is some kind of radical advancement for the series
Cheez-It said:Neomoto: I remember reading one reasonable explanation given on these boards. The current userbase of the Wii is a bit behind the combined userbase of the PS3 and 360 (and PC I suppose).
Granted, the Wii should be cheaper to develop for (devkit costs, SD content = less focus on idiotic things like rendering acne)...
It is perplexing though. You would think there would be far more support than there has been thus far. I'm still hoping these organizations come to their senses, either through intelligent decision making or shareholder intervention.
*edit: Saint Gregory: I'm sure they've been stockpiling, but keep in mind that Wii Fit isn't as simple to manufacture, distribute, and stock as a typical game...
Tiktaalik said:I think a many of these publishers have experienced failure on previous Nintendo consoles and handhelds so often that even with the high install base of the Wii, it still doesn't look like a sure bet.
I think the demographics of Wii owners are maybe not that friendly. I've been thinking about it recently, and you can break the Wii owners into a few distinct groups. You have Wii's owned by children where their parents buy the games (a traditional audience on a Nintendo system), you have Wii's owned as 2nd (or 3rd) systems by hardcore gamers (us) and then you have new gamers brought in by Wii Sports etc. Finally, you have (hard?)core gamers that only have a Wii.
The first group is the traditional Nintendo kid audience. Parents know Nintendo games are good and safe and they get bought a lot. Sega has done well here with this group as well. I think you see 3rd parties try to make games for this group quite a bit, but the quality is all over the place, and Nintendo games still do well because the Nintendo logo is sort of like a quality seal to stand out from the crap.
Hardcore gamers with a Wii as a second system could probably appreciate a big budget game on the Wii, since these are the folks asking for it the most, but why even release it for them on the Wii? They have a 360 or PS3 as well so just release it on those consoles.
New gamers. A big unknown. How many of them just bought Wii Play and then just put it in the closet? How many have caught the Wii bug and have got Guitar Hero 3 and are planning to get Wii Fit? Would this group be served by a big budget game when most of the games they've bought are non-games? The one 3rd party title I've seen for this group that looks good and isn't a non-game is We Ski. It should be interesting to see how that does, since it hits all 4 groups really.
Does the final group exist? (hard?)core gamers that only have a Wii would certainly be crying out for a big budget title, but I have to wonder how large this group actually is. I feel at this point if you're a gamer that actually buys games at a decent rate you have more than a Wii. If you only have a Wii it means you're satisfied by one Nintendo game every 2-3 months and that can not be appealing to a 3rd party company that wants you to buy their game.
I've only really been thinking about Wii demographics and the breakdown since yesterday, so I'm still formulating my thoughts about it. If there's another group you think got missed jump in and add it.
Andrex said:Pokemon's already out and I'm pretty sure Mario Kart is gonna dwarf any sales AC has, unless AC is some kind of radical advancement for the series (AC is my favorite game series, in any case).
J-Rock said:Same.
LCGeek said:VGA Cable or component transcoders you don't need to waste money on a HDTV that may upscale all your signals badly or for that matter may not support all the resolutions you desire.
Not if you include consoles from the previous generation along with handhelds.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
ksamedi said:What a retarded statement.
bigmakstudios said:Speaking of Animal Crossing, it would be awesome if it could be played with only the remote.
bigmakstudios said:Speaking of Animal Crossing, it would be awesome if it could be played with only the remote.
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Man, that's one pathetic argument. What do you want to prove with it.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
My only other (non-portable) console is my PC. I'm one of those "lapsed gamers", left consoles for the PC between the SNES and the PS eras, the DS brought me back and then the Wii arrived.WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Zerachiel said:Indeed. 720p monitor = 200 bucks, VGA to component converter = 50 bucks. Best way to get HD this generation IMO.
WrikaWrek said:I don't believe that there's a single poster on Gaf that only has a Wii.
Sadist said:Man, that's one pathetic argument. What do you want to prove with it.
Oh, and I only have a Wii. What do I win?
MrNyarlathotep said:It's not like the gameplay of GTA4 is so very different than it's predecessors that such a thing would be impossible to do, and sales would almost certainly justify it. EA have already shown that they can do justice to the Wiimotes potential with the Godfatherand it would be fucking hilarious to see an 'old engine' version of GTA get better reviews due to a better control scheme in favour of ragdolls.