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[Gaborn]

The last one shows the HD console lead over the Wii, which is still substantial. In fact, I would assert that the Wii may never overcome that lead.

All charts available here.

The thing is you MAY be right, but it's impossible to know until Nintendo has at least some handle on the demand for the Wii. I mean, if Nintendo's selling out 700k in SEPTEMBER without a major game release for the month... figure that it'll do even better when games release (whether for "core" gamers or non-core gamers), figure that when new colors hit that'll help, price drops at some point... I mean, yeah, ok, it might never outsell them combined... but then it's got a real shot to do it if Nintendo gets smart enough to ramp up production a bit more and stop being QUITE so conservative. Because eventually the bottom's going to drop out, it can't sustain this literally forever, and it's up to Nintendo whether that happens because everyone who wants one has the opportunity to get it, or if people start giving up looking for it.

 

[Zombie James]

I'm not. I thought we had strict moderation here to avoid this shit.

I don't know, I just don't take sales that personally, especially when the #2 and #3 consoles have most of the best games of the generation. I like talking about sales, but i'm nowhere near as emotionally invested in the business side as some people. If someone wants to call the the PS3 the GC2 or the 360 the Xbox 1.5, let them. Doesn't change your enjoyment of the system or the games being released. As a gamer, I don't really care, i'm too busy trying to juggle what i'm going to buy and what can wait.

 

[Psychotext]

On the bright side... next month we get the new saviour of the PS3 along with the follow up to one of the highest selling xbox titles.

Should be epic. :lol

 

[Deku]

The thing is you MAY be right, but it's impossible to know until Nintendo has at least some handle on the demand for the Wii. I mean, if Nintendo's selling out 700k in SEPTEMBER without a major game release for the month... figure that it'll do even better when games release (whether for "core" gamers or non-core gamers), figure that when new colors hit that'll help, price drops at some point... I mean, yeah, ok, it might never outsell them combined... but then it's got a real shot to do it if Nintendo gets smart enough to ramp up production a bit more and stop being QUITE so conservative. Because eventually the bottom's going to drop out, it can't sustain this literally forever, and it's up to Nintendo whether that happens because everyone who wants one has the opportunity to get it, or if people start giving up looking for it.

So your prediction is that Wii demand will eventually fall. That's very perceptive.

 

[Regulus Tera]

the region with the highest hd penetration is the region with the lowest adoption rate for the hd consoles

So I guess the next meme after "Wii only sells because of its price" is gonna be "Wii will stop selling when HD penetration is high"?

 

[Gaborn]

So your prediction is that Wii demand will eventually fall. That's very perceptive.

Yeah, I mean, it obviously will come down to more "normal" sales, it can't be the best selling console forever. Panther thinks that it's going to have a hard time catching up to the HD consoles, all I'm saying is that depends on how Nintendo deals with shortages. If they deal with it by allocating more supply (either through reallocation of shipments or through increased production) that makes it easier to see it catching up to the HD consoles combined. If Nintendo continues selling "only" a record number of consoles most months regardless of whether a game is released it may never happen. Though on the other hand there's still a LOT of ammo Nintendo can use to sustain itself.

 

[Kagari]

On the bright side... next month we get the new saviour of the PS3 along with the follow up to one of the highest selling xbox titles.

Should be epic. :lol

lol, who said that LBP was supposed to be the savior of the PS3? No one game will do anything. It's already been proven.

 

[WinFonda]

If we want to take a history lesson, MGS4 was supposed to be the game that turned the tide of battle around. Its effect lasted a grand total of one month and total sales tracked below new IP's like Gears of War.

MGS4 is gone now, and it didn't do a damned thing to change anything. Its so blatantly obvious software follows the hardware (the Wii is a perfect example of this, it has the worst lineup and is selling well above its competitors) that arguing "some game" is going to do anything is moronic.

Huh? I distinctly remember people saying MGS4 would be nearly ineffectual on PS3's sales based on GTA4's recent performance. The rationale at that time was that only price drops would move additional hardware. The tail end of your post is actually a good summation of what we were hearing.

Regardless, it's flimsy to base an argument on what you, or I, or anyone else perceived MGS4 to be in terms of a system seller. All that's kinda besides the point, since you can find people who will say anything. I've certainly never said MGS4 would "turn tide." I don't think there's many people who realistically expected that. At the same time, saying MGS4 didn't do anything is kind of ridiculous as well. There was a substantial impact on PS3's sales and it's fair (I think) to compare the systems immediate spikes in sales.

 

[Psychotext]

lol, who said that LBP was supposed to be the savior of the PS3? No one game will do anything. It's already been proven.

It's part of the running "wait for x" theme.

 

[Igo]

The "Wait for" spin from the Sony fans was lacking in this thread (which as has been noted seems to go slow, which is obvious why....).

Oh and, i remember when a 20k gap favoring PS3 was some sort of big deal. Now...look the shit being said.

Just :lol

PS3 selling more than the 360 was only ever a big deal because of people talking nonsense last year about how the PS3 was dead. Obviously PS3 fans would react once the tides turned. A supposedly dead system outselling the 360 must put grins on some peoples faces. Both HD consoles sell like crap so neither group of fanboys have anything to be all that happy about.

On the PS3, as long as it can hang with the 360 in US YTD sales I think Sony can be pleased. They're not bleeding money by dropping the price and slowly (I think) catching up worldwide.

 

[Beer Monkey]

It's a given at this point that 360 will outsell PS3 for the year 2008 in North America.

But perhaps Sony's plan all along was to be even more units behind after three holiday seasons than when they launched.

 

[-Kh-]

HD consoles don't really seem to be the place for JRPGs.

There is no way to compare yet, but next year we can see how fair will do the Wii and some other DS RPGs.

Because compared to last gen, the genre doesn't seem as popular. It's like most RPG fans from last gen, are yet to catch up with the RPGs from this gen.

 

[Loudninja]

Huh? I distinctly remember people saying MGS4 would be nearly ineffectual on PS3's sales based on GTA4's recent performance. The rationale at that time was that only price drops would move additional hardware. The tail end of your post is actually a good summation of what we were hearing.

Regardless, it's flimsy to base an argument on what you, or I, or anyone else perceived MGS4 to be in terms of a system seller. All that's kinda besides the point, since you can find people who will say anything. I've certainly never said MGS4 would "turn tide." I don't think there's many people who realistically expected that. At the same time, saying MGS4 didn't do anything is kind of ridiculous as well. There was a substantial impact on PS3's sales and it's fair (I think) to compare the systems immediate spikes in sales.

Yep.

 

[TheHeretic]

Huh? I distinctly remember people saying MGS4 would be nearly ineffectual on PS3's sales based on GTA4's recent performance. The rationale at that time was that only price drops would move additional hardware. The tail end of your post is actually a good summation of what we were hearing.

Regardless, it's flimsy to base an argument on what you, or I, or anyone else perceived MGS4 to be in terms of a system seller. All that's kinda besides the point, since you can find people who will say anything. I've certainly never said MGS4 would "turn tide." I don't think there's many people who realistically expected that. At the same time, saying MGS4 didn't do anything is kind of ridiculous as well. There was a substantial impact on PS3's sales and it's fair (I think) to compare the systems immediate spikes in sales.

Yes, there were. Shitloads of them. Post GTA4 the precedent was set, in the first year of this generation "wait for MGS4" was the Sony fans motto.

 

[Kagari]

It's part of the running "wait for x" theme.

That meme is silly.

 

[Psychotext]

That meme is silly.

Well, yes. Obviously.

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

So your prediction is that Wii demand will eventually fall. That's very perceptive.

Upon which time, they'll launch the new Wii colours, maybe later even make a slimline Wii with DVD playback a la DSi. I'd say they're pre-empting the next "expected"* drop on demand with WiiMotion+.

They'll keep on doing it and keep the price the same for the life of the system, at least until they decide to release their next system, whereupon they'll either drop the price or discontinue production. My guess is that they'll discontinue production since their next system will be able to play Wii games and no doubt launch at the same price point.

* By "expected" I mean - if they had done nothing, a drop would happen here.

 

[Guled]

lol, who said that LBP was supposed to be the savior of the PS3? No one game will do anything. It's already been proven.

Monster Hunter in Japan?

 

[FrankT]

On the bright side... next month we get the new saviour of the PS3 along with the follow up to one of the highest selling xbox titles.

Should be epic. :lol

Should be fun. November however should give us a nice reading on ultimately where the holiday sales will fall come Christmas.

Huh? I distinctly remember people saying MGS4 would be nearly ineffectual on PS3's sales based on GTA4's recent performance. The rationale at that time was that only price drops would move additional hardware. The tail end of your post is actually a good summation of what we were hearing.

Regardless, it's flimsy to base an argument on what you, or I, or anyone else perceived MGS4 to be in terms of a system seller. All that's kinda besides the point, since you can find people who will say anything. I've certainly never said MGS4 would "turn tide." I don't think there's many people who realistically expected that. At the same time, saying MGS4 didn't do anything is kind of ridiculous as well. There was a substantial impact on PS3's sales and it's fair (I think) to compare the systems immediate spikes in sales.

Well you can always can compare system seller to the other notable exclusive system seller, which btw has been done. Or you can even compare it the last PS3 price cut last October, but I wouldn't suggest that.

 

[Igo]

Yes, there were. Shitloads of them. Post GTA4 the precedent was set, in the first year of this generation "wait for MGS4" was the Sony fans motto.

Shitloads? Really? After MGS 3's sales I don't think the majority of Sony fans believed the games would be a huge system mover.

 

[kame-sennin]

MGS4 is gone now, and it didn't do a damned thing to change anything. Its so blatantly obvious software follows the hardware (the Wii is a perfect example of this, it has the worst lineup and is selling well above its competitors) that arguing "some game" is going to do anything is moronic.

It's sad that people's dislike of Wii Sports and Wii Fit have blinded them to the point that statements like this appear even remotely plausible. How on earth can videogame hardware sell videogame software? The Wii, PS3, and 360 are just plastic boxes with microchips inside. They're worthless on their own. It is the software that people want to buy, and they will tolerate buying an empty console if it gives them access to the software that they want. Right now, the software people want is Wii Sports. It may not be an easy pill to swallow for some, but it is reality.

 

[fernoca]

On the bright side... next month we get the new saviour of the PS3 along with the follow up to one of the highest selling xbox titles.

Should be epic. :lol

Kinda...
Throw in there a quite hyped/expected big game (Fallout 3) a semi-follow up to one of the first million sellers of the Xbox 360 near launch (Oblivion).....being released on both PS3 and Xbox 360.

Also that guitar game noone knows about..will probably cover a few spots in the top 10:
360 game only
360 version with guitar
360 version with all instruments
Wii game only
Wii version with guitar
Wii version with all instruments
PS3 game only
PS3 version with guitar
PS3 version with all instruments
PS2 game only
PS2 version with guitar
PS2 version with all instruments
And also that other band game being released on everything else..

They should make an exception and release a Top 20 for GAF...

 

[Kagari]

Monster Hunter in Japan?

That was a combination of several things, including a slim model.

 

[jetjevons]

This is like, the slowest moving NPD thread ever.

Nintendo fans tired of looking down from their ivory tower? Microsoft fans tired of gloating over their unassailable 2nd place? Sony fans finally giving up on "the spin" and "wait for" arguments and learning to love their console for what is without needing sales validation?

Say it ain't so GAF!

 

[Opiate]

There were actually people on both side making unrealistic claims: Xbox fans who insisted MGS4 didn't matter at all, and PS3 fans who insisted it would turn the tides.

In any argument with "sides" or "teams," such as this one, it is a common debate tactic to exclusively examine the opinions of the craziest members of the other team and attack them. For example, using PETA to show how crazy liberal people are, or using Tibris as a standard bearer for "PS3 fans."

In reality, most reasonable Xbox fans did expect some sort of bump from MGS4, and most reasonable PS3 fans expected this bump to be temporary. You are all correct that delusional fanboys made delusional claims on both sides. Now, can we please switch to a discussion where we actually talk to each other, and do not direct our discussion to "some PS3/360 fans" that we "distinctly remember" had insane projections?

 

[Gaborn]

Upon which time, they'll launch the new Wii colours, maybe later even make a slimline Wii with DVD playback a la DSi. I'd say they're pre-empting the next "expected"* drop on demand with WiiMotion+.

They'll keep on doing it and keep the price the same for the life of the system, at least until they decide to release their next system, whereupon they'll either drop the price or discontinue production. My guess is that they'll discontinue production since their next system will be able to play Wii games and no doubt launch at the same price point.

* By "expected" I mean - if they had done nothing, a drop would happen here.

I agree with all of this pretty much, my only thing is that they've got to keep working on getting more units to North America (even though I understand they could make potentially more profit in PAL territories and thus it makes sense to redirect shipments), because if a different console somehow got a software hit (which most likely won't be LBP or anything I see in the very near future) that catered to the Wii's audience some users might opt for other conosoles to a lesser degree.

I don't THINK it's going to happen, I'm just saying that it's best for Nintendo to THINK pessimistic and head off the worst case scenarios as best they can.

 

[WinFonda]

I think the reality of the current sales situation is that by the end of November, in terms of YTD "momentum", it's going to look like MGS4 never happened.

I agree with you in terms of raw units. But I disagree in terms of momentum. If we were looking at 2007's YTD, then I'd agree, but 2008's YTD is a different, closer picture.

 

[Sage00]

It's sad that people's dislike of Wii Sports and Wii Fit have blinded them to the point that statements like this appear even remotely plausible. How on earth can videogame hardware sell videogame software? The Wii, PS3, and 360 are just plastic boxes with microchips inside. They're worthless on their own. It is the software that people want to buy, and they will tolerate buying an empty console if it gives them access to the software that they want. Right now, the software people want is Wii Sports. It may not be an easy pill to swallow for some, but it is reality.

Disagree. The reason PS1 sold was because it had CD technology. The reason PS2 sold was because it had DVD technology. The reason Wii sold is because it has motion sensing technology.

Games are examples of the hardware in action. They could be great examples which push people more. But it wouldn't matter if Wii had 3 game, people loved the idea of motion sensing just as generations before they loved the idea of high tech machines.

 

[camineet]

:lol :lol

 

[verio]

Another day. Another NPD.

 

[justchris]

Wow, at 406k sales, Spore would be 3rd place, right behind TFU & Wii Fit....

I hate this world.

 

[kiUNiT]

I would have expected a bigger boost on 360's sales... PS3 got a stronger uptick on MGS4 alone. I think Microsoft might be in deep doodoo when Sony gets their price down.

Bitch Please, You're joking right? when the fuck do you honestly think that will be, when MS has Gears4 running @ 1080p off Blu-ray on xbox 720.

 

[Kandinsky]

Edit: meh, not worth the time.

 

[speculawyer]

lol, who said that LBP was supposed to be the savior of the PS3? No one game will do anything. It's already been proven.

There will be no miracle for the PS3. Final Fantasy was its last great hope and Microsoft money-hatted that one. Get used to being 3rd (in the USA), Sony. Maybe Blu-Ray will help you in the coming years.

 

[Gaborn]

Bitch Please, You're joking right? when the fuck do you honestly think that will be, when MS has Gears4 running @ 1080p off Blu-ray on xbox 720.

Here's an interesting question: At what point do you think the Wii's sales (assuming they stopped suddenly which won't happen) will have passed the point of no return for the PS3, and then for the 360? Obviously the 360 can reach the Wii's current sales, can the PS3? I don't know, probably, but what about at 15 million? (which isn't far off)

 

[Ajax]

Look how happy the fanboys are over that tag, it's adorable. Segata, WrikaWrek and Haunted were so excited that they even defended it. :lol Great job mod.

 

[RBH]

I dont know about that tbh.

:lol

 

[kame-sennin]

Are we going to get the entire top 20 eventually?

Yeah . . . it has so little info since
1) Star Wars takes 3 slots (duh)
2) The everlasting extra Wii controller Wii Play is up there.
3) 2 slots taken by the annual Madden

That only leaves 4 slots . . . and only 2 of those are new titles (Rock Band 2 and Mecenaries)

How did all the other games do? Who knows?

I really hope NPD is feeling charitable this holiday because there is really so little information presented due to all the multi-platform hits and chart squatters (Wii Fit/Wii Play). Can anyone make a request?

 

[Zombie James]

I dont know about that tbh.

I got banned for that :lol

But like I said in that thread, it was a legit question about the semantics of the bundle, everyone just decided to attack me on it.

 

[Cirekiller]

Sales numbers make fanboys cry, so they get around the problem by pretending they don't care about sales - it's about the games, stupid. Which, coincidentally, is a good attitude to have. After all, they're just consumer products and the games they like will indeed still be made.

You'll note though, that this thread's view to post ratio shows that they in fact, do care, but they're just not posting out of fear of embarrassment or having their previous triumphant prediction posts rubbed in their faces. Only the bravest

Spoiler

(stupidest)

fanboys dare to come in here spinning the numbers now.

There are a few who secretly or not-so-secretly hold out hope that one game will come along and turn things around, in spite of all the evidence and past experience to the contrary. Many of them used to sport FFXIII, Killzone or MGS4 avatars and are currently wearing the LBP warpaint. They're silently waiting for the numbers to come in that will vindicate them, so that they can make their triumphant return, but will remain silent if the numbers are not in their favour.

Which won't stop the spinning and meltdowns by the crazier fanboys, of course.

WTF 8*(

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Shitloads? Really? After MGS 3's sales I don't think the majority of Sony fans believed the games would be a huge system mover.

Really. Go back and read some older NPD threads, pre-gen prediction or PS3 pre-launch hype threads. I remember some epic list wars in those threads, with some Sony fans at various times listing things like:

- MGS4
- FFXIII
- KHIII
- VF5
- Lair
- Assassin's Creed
- Heavenly Sword
- Killzone 2
- Grand Turismo
- GTAIV
- Naughty Dog Game (Uncharted)
- FFVII remake
- Home

Yes, at one point they were actually listing Home as a game. As each of these games started getting released and bombing, going multiplatform or doing nothing for the PS3's hardware sales, Sony fanboys spun the results and moved on to anticipation of the next "saviour".

This time around, it's LBP with its "casual appeal", but they're a lot less vocal about it so as not to be embarrassed if it happens again. They have, however, appeared to have lost hope in Home's ability to "turn things around" as well as the possibility of an FFVII remake this generation.

 

[overthehill99]

Rock Band 2 only sold 363,000? How does that fare for a first month Harmonix game.

 

[jett]

Crazy Wii numbers...again.

 

[TheHeretic]

It's sad that people's dislike of Wii Sports and Wii Fit have blinded them to the point that statements like this appear even remotely plausible. How on earth can videogame hardware sell videogame software? The Wii, PS3, and 360 are just plastic boxes with microchips inside. They're worthless on their own. It is the software that people want to buy, and they will tolerate buying an empty console if it gives them access to the software that they want. Right now, the software people want is Wii Sports. It may not be an easy pill to swallow for some, but it is reality.

The Wii sports craze is over now, and people are buying as many Wii's as ever. The fact that Wii sports was packaged with the Wii itself makes it impossible to know how Wii sports actually influenced the console. But even if every Wii ever sold was because of Wii sports (and it probably is a very high number) that would have no bearing on my point.

Hardware sales on the Wii are running completely independantly of software releases. Meanwhile, a console with an obviously better lineup is being outsold twofold. Obviously every console need a "hook", and for the Wii Wii sports was that hook (for the PS2 it was being an affordable DVD player), but beyond that theres no reason to think the release of any game is going to significantly influence hardware sales from that point.

 

[FrankT]

Really. Go back and read some older NPD threads, pre-gen prediction or PS3 pre-launch hype threads. I remember some epic list wars in those threads, with some Sony fans at various times listing things like:

- MGS4
- FFXIII
- KHIII
- VF5
- Lair
- Assassin's Creed
- Heavenly Sword
- Killzone 2
- Grand Turismo
- GTAIV
- Naughty Dog Game (Uncharted)
- FFVII remake
- Home

Yes, at one point they were actually listing Home as a game. As each of these games started getting released and bombing, going multiplatform or doing nothing for the PS3's hardware sales, Sony fanboys spun the results and moved on to anticipation of the next "saviour".

This time around, it's LBP with its "casual appeal", but they're a lot less vocal about it so as not to be embarrassed if it happens again. They have, however, appeared to have lost hope in Home's ability to "turn things around" as well as the possibility of an FFVII remake this generation.

Those were the days.

 

[DMeisterJ]

Next Month's NPD will be EPIC.

If LBP does bad (god no) or if PS3 does bad. Or if Wii Music beats LBP or Fable 2

 

[kame-sennin]

Disagree. The reason PS1 sold was because it had CD technology. The reason PS2 sold was because it had DVD technology. The reason Wii sold is because it has motion sensing technology.

And if you have a CD player with no music, a DVD player with no movies, a motion controller with no Wii Sports?

Games are examples of the hardware in action. They could be great examples which push people more. But it wouldn't matter if Wii had 3 game, people loved the idea of motion sensing just as generations before they loved the idea of high tech machines.

If Wii Sports didn't appeal to its audience, there would be no Wii phenomenon. My people like a certain technology on a conceptual level, but no one buys concepts. They buy applications, specifically good ones. Wii Sports applies motion technology in a way people enjoy, and that's what made them bite the bullet and buy the console.

I'll concede that there's a certain synergy between Wii Sports and the hardware used to play it; that it would not have become a success without the technology necessary to fully experience it. But that's like saying CDs wouldn't have take off if you could only jam them in toasters. And let's also not forget games like Pokemon, FFVII, Nintendogs, and Super Mario Brothers. Games which made their respective consoles.

 

[Cheez-It]

Next Month's NPD will be EPIC.

If LBP does bad (god no) or if PS3 does bad. Or if Wii Music beats LBP or Fable 2

Uhhh, I was under the impression that there was a very good chance it might not even chart. I'm assuming you are counting on Sony releasing numbers?

 

[donny2112]

Meanwhile, a console with an obviously better lineup is being outsold twofold.

It's not so obvious to the people buying massive amounts of Wii software. More than 360 (month-to-month and at the same point in its lifespan). About the same or more than PS2 at the same point in its lifespan.

Just saying.


Actual

YOY

U.S.+Japan

Estimated

 

[GPsych]

The Wii sports craze is over now, and people are buying as many Wii's as ever. The fact that Wii sports was packaged with the Wii itself makes it impossible to know how Wii sports actually influenced the console. But even if every Wii ever sold was because of Wii sports (and it probably is a very high number) that would have no bearing on my point.

Hardware sales on the Wii are running completely independantly of software releases. Meanwhile, a console with an obviously better lineup is being outsold twofold. Obviously every console need a "hook", and for the Wii Wii sports was that hook (for the PS2 it was being an affordable DVD player), but beyond that theres no reason to think the release of any game is going to significantly influence hardware sales from that point.

Obviously better lineup in your opinion. Not to everyone. I know it might be difficult for you to understand, but a huge number of people love motion controls. If you're really into that, then the Wii's lineup is massively superior to both the PS3 and Xbox 360 as they do not offer that experience (no, I do not count the PS3's motion control to be the same as the Wii).