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[Eddie-Griffin]

https://www.techgoing.com/meta-univ...headsets-will-be-shipped-worldwide-this-year/

It’s because the advertising business is in the doldrums that Mark Zuckerberg decided to bet on the “meta-universe” of VR devices and related technology. But data from analyst firm CCS Insight shows that global shipments of VR and AR (augmented reality) devices are only 9.6 million units so far in 2022, down more than 12 percent year-over-year.

There is no doubt that these figures cast a shadow over Meta’s future prospects. In fact, Mark Zuckerberg has previously said that the “metaverse” is a long-term bet that is expected to take up to a decade to become mainstream and could eventually bring in hundreds of billions of dollars in business.

Of course, in addition to Meta, there are many other companies making big bets on virtual worlds related to work, education, fitness and sports. But so far, say several analysts, Meta’s “Quest 2” in 2020 is leading the VR market, with competing products from companies like Valve, HP and Sony accounting for only a fraction of the market.

This year, sales of the Meta Quest headset have declined, NPD Group consumer electronics analyst Ben Arnold said, mainly because Quest sales were too hot during the Christmas season in 2021 when demand for consoles such as Sony’s PS5 exceeded supply.

NPD Group data shows that U.S. sales of VR headsets will be about $530 million in 2020, and double that in 2021. A number of factors have come together to cause a decline in VR headset sales and shipments in 2022.

First, Quest 2 has been out for a few years now and, like any other consumer electronics device, has lost some of its appeals as it ages. Although Meta released a new VR headset, the Quest Pro, this fall, the device is aimed at businesses and costs $1,100 more than the Quest 2, which is a turnoff for many VR enthusiasts.

This summer, Meta raised the price of the Quest 2 by another $100, citing inflationary pressures. In response, CCS Insight analyst Leo Gebbie said, “This price increase is surprising because Meta has previously been willing to sell this product at a lower margin in an attempt to drive VR adoption and gain higher market share.”

Apple in the spotlight
In its latest report, CCS Insight said it expects 2023 to be another “down year” for the VR market due to the weak economy and inflation, with CCS Insight analyst Gebbie saying, “Consumer budgets will tighten and non-essential items like VR headsets will likely fall victim. “

Sony’s next-generation VR headset, the PlayStation VR2, will debut next February for $550, and while the PlayStation VR2 will give the market a shot in the arm, it probably won’t have as big an impact on the overall VR market as the Quest 2, according to NPD Group analyst Arnold. That’s because Sony’s device requires users to have a PS5 to power their computing, while the Quest 2 is independent of other devices.

Arnold said, “The potential users of the PlayStation VR2 are PlayStation console owners.” In addition to Sony, one concern is whether Apple will release a VR headset, as rumors suggest.

Arnold believes that Apple could create a compelling VR headset that comes with a software ecosystem. In addition, Apple, as a leader in consumer technology, could bring some spark to the bleak VR market and make the technology more appealing to the general public.

If there’s one company that has the ability to change the VR market overnight, it’s Apple,” said CCS Insight analyst Gerby. Apple has a large and loyal fan base, many of whom are happy to invest large sums of money in the technology. If Apple were to launch a VR headset, we expect it to do very well.”

Global VR retailer and individual sales adoption dropped 12% this year globally so only 9.6 million headsets were shipped, so the sold-through would be even less, and while we don't know by how much less, given the drop in adoption in general, along with how many headsets cost over $500 to buy sitting on shelves, it could be below 9 million sold-through as a possibility.

Quest 2 is starting to dry up along with the oculus go and Quest 1 has already been a rare fine, HTC is revamping its strategy to focus on affordability in 2023 and isn't going to had on their current headsets outside the flow, and everyone else is niche.

There's a chance the influx of new headsets coming in 2023, many in the first half of the year, might be able to get some interest but almost none of the new headsets are coming out with games to spark new interest in the market, at least so far, some will have conferences showing the game and general software applications the headsets will offer, and some will just be advanced versions relying on existing libraries.

All in all though it seems people are expecting Apples entry to shakeup the market, I also think TCL and HTC if executed right, might be able to cause a few ripples in the water with their Quest 2 price targeting headsets.

But it is also true that so far VR seems to be having problems staying in the minds of consumers, after the first handful of year the best that has gained traction was the Quest 2 headset, but that's been getting old hat without any drivers for awhile and is soon to be replaced. I think we will be seeing the end of Zucker dominance in VR next year, unless he strikes it out the park with the Quest 3.

 

[bentanchorbolt]

Consumers are lazy, don't want to play games while also burning calories, at least that is my opinion. Playing games in VR is 1000x better than with a controller in front of a TV, more immersive, and your body can be used instead of being sedentary. I think the big problem with lack of adoption more so however is not enough AAA games. If tomorrow the industry began to push hardcore native support for VR, with exclusive content, it would be a game changer. The vast majority of games out there are at best amazing tech demos for what is possible.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

https://www.techspot.com/news/97106-falling-vr-headset-sales-could-spell-bad-news.html

Also apparently Facebooks VR division has lost $16 billion since the start of the year, so I think the question is for all companies and not just for them, if this VR thing is sustainable and able to be profitable, or if it's just an optional gateway to other services companies hope people will spend money on to eventually make up for losses in VR.

That loss also includes post-price increase for Quest 2, if the Quest 2 was a major cause for those losses, how much will TCL, HTC, and Sony be losing?

 

[diffusionx]

I love VR and have loved it ever since I first tried it at one of those early VR “cafes.” That’s the problem though. You don’t really “get it” without trying it, hence the drive to make them more affordable and accessible. But they’re still expensive luxury devices and in an economy that is just destroying buying power, it’s a tough sell.

Also, the advancement in software has mostly stagnated. The last big breakthrough game was probably HL Alyx. Beat Saber is #1 on the sales charts every month. Telling people to buy a $400 device to play years old games is an even tougher sell. But devs aren’t going to invest in it without an audience so you’re in a catch 22 situation. Look at the PSVR2 launch, it’s mostly Quest port slop. Even VR versions of games like RE don’t really move the needle because people say, “well I can play RE on my TV and it’s fine”

 

[Punished Miku]

https://www.techspot.com/news/97106-falling-vr-headset-sales-could-spell-bad-news.html

Also apparently Facebooks VR division has lost $16 billion since the start of the year, so I think the question is for all companies and not just for them, if this VR thing is sustainable and able to be profitable, or if it's just an optional gateway to other services companies hope people will spend money on to eventually make up for losses in VR.

That loss also includes post-price increase for Quest 2, if the Quest 2 was a major cause for those losses, how much will TCL, HTC, and Sony be losing?

It doesn't seem very sustainable. I'm happy I got my Quest 2 as a nice little stand alone novelty. It's pretty amazing. I can keep it around and fire it up anytime I want to experience the best gimmick ever invented. But it's not ever growing to take over gaming on par with the investment being put into it.

 

[amigastar]

One day i will get an VR device for sure. I wanna play all those DCS Flight Sims with VR.

 

[Abriael_GN]

"Vr Is GoNnA bE ThE MaInStReAm!"

 

[lukilladog]

I cannot see Apple's fan base disturbing their hair cut with a headstrap.

 

[Zathalus]

I got a Quest 2 for Christmas. It's nice but will never replace console or PC gaming in its current form. Best it can hope to be is a secondary or tertiary option.

 

[poppabk]

Reading that article was giving me a headache with all the time travel stuff, but that number doesn't seem that bad.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

It doesn't seem very sustainable. I'm happy I got my Quest 2 as a nice little stand alone novelty. It's pretty amazing. I can keep it around and fire it up anytime I want to experience the best gimmick ever invented. But it's not ever growing to take over gaming on par with the investment being put into it.

It's doing better than cloud gaming but not by much, and you would think the former would cause more casuals to jump on board due to convenience but it hasn't, so the target for the former has shifted to low-income individuals and developing countries, which also has a ton of competition.

VR, well mobileVR was supposed to be that solution and it died. I'm not curious with the current numbers if Samsung when it was dominating VR for years, if they were making any profits at all.

 

[winjer]

It´s a niche tech, that comes and goes every other decade.
Each time it improves a bit, people try it, get bored with it and give up.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

10 million VR units are a lot higher than I thought would had shipped out.

 

[yurinka]

Logical, people knows that next year they'll start to release next gen headsets so ti wouldn't make a lot of sense to buy now. It makes more sense to wait for the next ones.

Also, VR is still a small niche on its infancy. It would be stupid to expect to have now mainstream sales.

 

[remember_spinal]

Seems like a decent number to me considering its only really quest being sold and updated with new software right now

 

[DeepEnigma]

"Only"

 

[Punished Miku]

Seems like a decent number to me considering its only really quest being sold and updated with new software right now

It's not bad I guess. But it's not going to be enough to justify the current investment level. They will need to find a better balance between investment and return to stay around long term.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

10 million VR units are a lot higher than I thought would had shipped out.

Eh, you have Quest and Oculus Go growth earlier in the year likely leading to Quest overshipping, and then other VR makers thinking there was a wave to ride into the holidays which didn't happen. Even Omdia was expecting 12-13 by the end of the year and that was low, so it's even lower.

So the sold-through must be even worse. But I can see VR headsets sitting on shelves for a big holiday that didn't pan out, well the Quest 2 did somewhat well and had deals at $349 but that's only going to make it harder to sell the headset at 400 next year.

 

[Sybrix]

At least half of them are collecting dust on a shelf.

 

[Robb]

Sounds high.

 

[anthony2690]

Consumers are lazy, don't want to play games while also burning calories, at least that is my opinion. Playing games in VR is 1000x better than with a controller in front of a TV, more immersive, and your body can be used instead of being sedentary. I think the big problem with lack of adoption more so however is not enough AAA games. If tomorrow the industry began to push hardcore native support for VR, with exclusive content, it would be a game changer. The vast majority of games out there are at best amazing tech demos for what is possible.

I'm not sure it's about being lazy.

I imagine the target demographic is adults, due to price etc.

Adults like myself, go work, come home and probably want to relax/unwind with a game, or film or with family etc.

You can't really relax playing with a vr device.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Logical, people knows that next year they'll start to release next gen headsets so ti wouldn't make a lot of sense to buy now. It makes more sense to wait for the next ones.

Also, VR is still a small niche on its infancy. It would be stupid to expect to have now mainstream sales.

This is one of the lowest years of shipments since the new gen of VR started in 2015.

But yes, it's a niche and outside a major disrupter, it will probably won't pick up much more.

 

[Ozriel]

That loss also includes post-price increase for Quest 2, if the Quest 2 was a major cause for those losses, how much will TCL, HTC, and Sony be losing?

The Quest 2 will not have lost Meta a significant portion of their total Metaverse related losses. Most of those come from Zuck's investment in the Metaverse...including expensive R&D for his dream virtual worlds.

Quest 2 is starting to dry up along with the oculus go and Quest 1 has already been a rare fine, HTC is revamping its strategy to focus on affordability in 2023 and isn't going to had on their current headsets outside the flow, and everyone else is niche.

Not sure why you're mentioning dead products like Oculus Go and Quest 1 that aren't in the market anymore.

All in all though it seems people are expecting Apples entry to shakeup the market, I also think TCL and HTC if executed right, might be able to cause a few ripples in the water with their Quest 2 price targeting headsets.

Nobody expects Apple's headset to shake up the affordable consumer market that the Quest line of headsets occupy

 

[diffusionx]

Nobody expects Apple's headset to shake up the affordable consumer market that the Quest line of headsets occupy

What Apple’s headset can do is normalize the concept of owning a VR headset. They didn’t invent smartphones, tablets, mp3 players, smartwatches, etc. but they made all those tech categories palatable to normies.

 

[bentanchorbolt]

I'm not sure it's about being lazy.

I imagine the target demographic is adults, due to price etc.

Adults like myself, go work, come home and probably want to relax/unwind with a game, or film or with family etc.

You can't really relax playing with a vr device.

I really can't relate. Almost 40 with 3 kids and a full-time job, would much rather play games in VR than other mediums but that's me. I am saying people are lazy because I have outright heard people saying they don't want to stand to play games. We also have an obesity epidemic so I'm just correlating a few things here.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

The Quest 2 will not have lost Meta a significant portion of their total Metaverse related losses.

The $16 billion in losses came from primarily the studio and related studios in charge of their VR department.

Not sure why you're mentioning dead products like Oculus Go and Quest 1 that aren't in the market anymore.

Because they were still topped used headsets on several usage charts, including on SteamVR charts posted here. People are getting them likely off online retail or stores selling inventory.

Nobody expects Apple's headset to shake up the affordable consumer market that the Quest line of headsets occupy

No one said this, and that's not what you quoted.

 

[Dream-Knife]

The entire industry is in a recession except for PC digital sales.

GamesIndustry.biz presents… The Year In Numbers 2022

Sign up for the GI Daily here to get the biggest news straight to your inbox 2022 has been a busy year for GamesIndustr…

www.gamesindustry.biz

I don't think VR will ever be mainstream until either Nintendo makes it accessible, or Apple makes it trendy.

 

[Danknugz]

unfortunately greed won over innovation and META jumped the gun before VR was ready / good enough to win people over.

you started seeing the cracks over a year ago with those cringey kiosk displays in target and othr big name stores that showed people trying to exercise with the quest on, which, to me, posed a major conflict for a number of reasons.

1. it's hard to jump around and get exercise with a huge hot thing strapped to your face.
2. most people who are into exercise aren't into gaming enough to buy VR and most ppl who are hardcore into gaming enough to buy VR aren't really into exercise.
3. there are issues with maintaining the headset with oils and sweat from your face getting into and on the facial interface even when not exercising and just standing around, exercise makes it way worse.
4. most people who exercise, in general, are concerned about how they look, and value social status. wearing the quest and exercising with it on looks awkward and "uncool" and might covey the idea that you're unsocial or out of touch.
5. the software and hardware combination hasn't matured to make compelling enough of a case to overcome 1-4 above.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

What Apple’s headset can do is normalize the concept of owning a VR headset. They didn’t invent smartphones, tablets, mp3 players, smartwatches, etc. but they made all those tech categories palatable to normies.

Touch0scre non-pen smartphones, but it will depend on if Apple works with carriers to subsidize and allow monthly payments on their headset, that's what's going to cause a huge boom for the VR market, and then retailers will have their own deals for monthly payments as well partnered with Apple.

 

[Mercador]

"Vr Is GoNnA bE ThE MaInStReAm!"

It's still better than 3D TV... but still.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I don't think VR will ever be mainstream until either Nintendo makes it accessible,

Labo failed.

 

[DeepEnigma]

What Apple’s headset can do is normalize the concept of owning a VR headset. They didn’t invent smartphones, tablets, mp3 players, smartwatches, etc. but they made all those tech categories palatable to normies.

I painfully agree, sadly.

 

[THE DUCK]

It's just not there yet technology wise......
It needs higher resolution, more powerfull mobile chips, wider fov, and lighter to wear for it to become mainstream. Is it fun? Yes.

Said this over and over to the diehards who keep saying silly things like vr is a smarter move for Sony than a portable hybrid......
Only if you want to cap yourself severely and increase your production costs. (Easier to port a game to lower hardware than make a proper vr version)

 

[buenoblue]

When I first heard of the Oculus quest i kick-started it straight away and was convinced vr was the future. I imagined playing open world RPGs and first person shooters and being in the game

Unfortunately it turns out to the vast majority of casual users (myself included) that any prolonged movement in VR is disorienting and sickness inducing

So the majority of games are basically light gun gallery shooters or Wii motion knockoffs.

So yeah as far as I'm concerned the technology just doesn't work. Until you can put on a headset and walk down a virtual street without feeling weird it's gonna be a hard sell. I only use my rift s as a fitness device with beat saber and box vr now.

 

[TonyK]

Consumers are lazy, don't want to play games while also burning calories, at least that is my opinion. Playing games in VR is 1000x better than with a controller in front of a TV, more immersive, and your body can be used instead of being sedentary. I think the big problem with lack of adoption more so however is not enough AAA games. If tomorrow the industry began to push hardcore native support for VR, with exclusive content, it would be a game changer. The vast majority of games out there are at best amazing tech demos for what is possible.

It's not to be lazy, it's the fucking headset. I had 2 PSVR headsets and now a Quest 2 and I'm done with VR. I will try it again when it is a chipset in the brain ala Matrix.

 

[RoboFu]

ehh its still not ready for primetime and game developers still dont know how to make great VR games. There are a lot of limitations beyond just hardware in making a good VR game. There has only been a few i really liked and the were all point and click type adventure games. The vader series is still the best.

 

[fart town usa]

VR is cool but it's niche for a reason and isn't going to change anytime soon.

Lots of people get motion sickness from the simplest of things and even if you don't get motion sickness, it's incredibly disorienting to game that way for an extended period.

Some experiences make it worth it but no way in hell would I want to exclusively game in VR or play every game in VR.

 

[bentanchorbolt]

It's not to be lazy, it's the fucking headset. I had 2 PSVR headsets and now a Quest 2 and I'm done with VR. I will try it again when it is a chipset in the brain ala Matrix.

I can’t relate sorry. The headset doesn’t bother me.

 

[Markio128]

I‘m just thankful that some are willing to take the risk with VR. Let’s put it this way, I’m more excited to receive my PSVR2 than anything else gaming related next year.

 

[Imtjnotu]

Alot of it also has to do with companies announcing their next VR headset.

Sony did it in 2021 with the official unveil in Feb of this year. Console sales slowed in 2019 and 2020 when next gens were announced

 

[PonyStation4]

9.6 million is a lot higher than I was expecting. Considering the reponses in this thread, what would have been a good number? 30 million?

 

[fart town usa]

I really can't relate. Almost 40 with 3 kids and a full-time job, would much rather play games in VR than other mediums but that's me. I am saying people are lazy because I have outright heard people saying they don't want to stand to play games. We also have an obesity epidemic so I'm just correlating a few things here.

I see where you're coming from but if exercise is that important to someone, they should go out and walk around or do pushups, etc. Moving your wrists in Beat Saber is no substitute for actual exercise if someone is that concerned about their weight.

 

[FoxMcChief]

Higher than I thought. I’m a Quest 2 owner myself.

 

[Crayon]

At least half of them are collecting dust on a shelf.

Well more than half of my expensive toys collect dust on a shelf. A significant number are safe in drawers and boxes tho.

 

[Ozriel]

What Apple’s headset can do is normalize the concept of owning a VR headset.

...and that's pretty much what the Quest line of headsets did. They sold an insane number of these 2021 holidays.

VR headsets used to be mainly focused around the PC flagships and PSVR. The Quest changed the game.

Because they were still topped used headsets on several usage charts, including on SteamVR charts posted here. People are getting them likely off online retail or stores selling inventory.

There's no remaining stock of Oculus Go headsets, and Oculus Go doesn't even register on SteamVR.

 

[Miles708]

I'm not sure it's about being lazy.

I imagine the target demographic is adults, due to price etc.

Adults like myself, go work, come home and probably want to relax/unwind with a game, or film or with family etc.

You can't really relax playing with a vr device.

You hit the nail on the head.

VR simply requires too much energy and concentration and it's the opposite of a relaxing activity. Depending on your situation, playing in VR is the last thing you usually want to do at the end of a working day.

In my case there's also the thing that i just don't understand it. I have PSVR, played with all major titles (resident evil, no man sky, driveclub vr, ace combat etc.) and i still think it's an overpriced and very inconvenient gimmick at best.

What everyone sees in these bulky things i don't know.

 

[ReBurn]

What Apple’s headset can do is normalize the concept of owning a VR headset. They didn’t invent smartphones, tablets, mp3 players, smartwatches, etc. but they made all those tech categories palatable to normies.

If it releases at Apple prices it's not going to normalize headset ownership. It likely won't have the utility. It's easy to justify the expense of MacBooks, iPhones and iPads because they allow you to do more than just one thing. These devices allow people to do most of their general purpose computing tasks, to the point that people don't rely on traditional home computers as much. Unless Apple can get more out of a VR headset than everyone else is getting out of them it's hard to see them moving the needle on VR adoption outside of their clique of rabid "own everything Apple" fans. That group isn't as big as most people believe.

 

[SteelCurtain 59]

I'm sure VR is cool, I'm sure it will become at least a mainstream complement to standard gaming. But until they have affordable, wireless headsets with some sort of apparatus (treadmill, wire, etc. etc.) that allows me to move around without running into things, then I have no interest in VR. That technology may be 5 years away or 25, and I'll be incredibly into it when it gets to that point, but I'm just not interested in VR in its current state

 

[M1chl]

Whoever is fan of games and haven't at least tried VR is missing big time. Once you load up Half-Life: Alyx, that shit is literally transformative. Same with Flight Sim VR and Alien Mother VR

...and yeah it shows the potential, sadly the content is still pretty dry.

I am for one glad that Sony is pushing VR to mainstream. Zuck can get fucked, even tho I own Quest 2, because they don't push it as gaming device, but some metaverse bullshit. If they would instead fund some bigger studio to do VR game...

 

[anthony2690]

You hit the nail on the head.

VR simply requires too much energy and concentration and it's the opposite of a relaxing activity. Depending on your situation, playing in VR is the last thing you usually want to do at the end of a working day.

In my case there's also the thing that i just don't understand it. I have PSVR, played with all major titles (resident evil, no man sky, driveclub vr, ace combat etc.) and i still think it's an overpriced and very inconvenient gimmick at best.

What everyone sees in these bulky things i don't know.

I agree about being a gimmick, everyone I know in real life that purchased the psvr, said they liked re7, but everything else felt like a demo or was an indie game.

I guess different strokes for different folks, but I'm on feet all day at work, I don't want to strap a headset on and stand up and play a vr game after work.

When I can play better looking games that play and look better on my big TV with a controller in my hand