Opening Up America Again

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Looks like we're opening up next month, based on GAF's favorite always-wrong analyst.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Wall Street Parses AMC Theatres’ Plan for $500 Million “Near-Term Lifeline”

Cinema analysts on Wall Street discuss the latest developments in the exhibition sector after the White House unveiled plans to reopen movie theaters once the coronavirus pandemic subsides and AMC Theatres unveiled a $500 million funding deal.
www.hollywoodreporter.com www.hollywoodreporter.com

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter told THR on Friday that "the guidelines have zero impact on what will happen going forward," adding: "Theaters are no more likely to open on a date certain today than they were yesterday."

He explained: "It's a set of guidelines, and the first requirement is that the progression of the virus plateaus and then declines for 14 days. The second requirement is that governors agree. I don't see either of those happening in major metropolitan areas until June or July."
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Pachter highlighted that "AMC says it has enough cash to get through the second quarter and still felt compelled to borrow another $500 million yesterday to get it through Thanksgiving." His conclusion: "AMC's actions are a lot more indicative of the state of affairs than the White House 'guidelines'."
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darkinstinct said:
A look at the numbers. Italy had its peak of new daily infections on the 21st of March, over 6k. Since then, their daily infections have gone down to 3.500 to 4.000 a day (a 50 % decrease in a month). The deaths have almost quintupled from 4.800 to 22.200. While staying under harsh restrictions. And they are still reporting 500+ deaths per day, by the end of it they will probably be at over 35.000 deaths. More than seven times than at the peak.

The US may have had their peak of new infections on the 10th of April at 35k. They reported 18.544 deaths on that day. If the country was kept shut down one would assume a similar trend as in Italy, this would lead to 85.000 deaths by the 10th of May. And around 130.000 by the end of it if everything was kept shut down. Now add the effect of opening up prematurely. It's a nightmare.

Realistically, Italy will end the pandemic in late June going by the rate of infections. And that's a best case scenario. Things can always turn around. Look at Spain. Just yesterday they had the most new cases since two weeks ago. For the last three days the numbers of new cases were 2.400/5.100/7.300. Back to exponential growth it would seem. They started opening up just this week for some workers - and now they are facing uncertainty (not because of opening, it's too early to see that effect). It's much worse for the economy to constantly shut down and recover, than it is to have one sustained shutdown after which you can go back to relatively normal. Some countries realize that, others don't. Sadly, they will learn the reality.
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Did you read the guidelines at all? This gradual reopening will only begin in areas that meet specific criteria and do not have outbreaks out of control. New York, for example, will not be participating re-opening for a while yet...
 
The gradual region-based reopening may hasten the modern de-centralization (that was already in progress anyway). Major cities can't go back to work for months but small towns can go back in a week or two? Business is going to take the opportunity -- even if temporarily -- to open and to make some money.

It could be a great rebalancing for many small businesses, assuming they can thread the needle. Capitalism resetting itself.
 
ROMhack said:
Do it and see what happens.

-Sincerely yours, the rest of the world eagerly waiting to see what happens.
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The rest of the world is already opening up and the US is watching.

SK/China did the reopening thing a while ago.

EU are all going to start doing, nordic countries are ahead of the USA.

The rest of the world isn't eagrly waiting they are doing their own thing, which is very similar to the US plan. Small openings with social distance and vigilance against flare ups, and keeping hot spots closed down.
 
What it comes down to is the US government is still winging it. People want a plan so they can feel better about something to look forward to. They're more likely than not going to play it by ear and these phases are just a template.

I agree doing things state by state as things go on is the way to go. I would think going county by county would likely be better, especially in big states like CA, TX and AL. Some dude in Mendocino county where its a bunch of people growing weed shouldn't have the same shelter in place order as San Francisco or LA
 
Bildo_Shaggins said:
Watch out for the second wave.
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giphy-downsized-large.gif
 
Wisconsin just extended its lockdown to May 26. I can't believe this. I thought we were beginning to or were already in the process of flattening the curve and now they expect us to wait another month with the possibility of more people losing their jobs? I'm sure this pleases Nobody_Important Nobody_Important to know that Trump was wrong and people will continue to be safe, while our economy goes down the toilet and the number of people forced to collect unemployment gets higher.

Oh, and the Democrats want to give Americans $2000 a month but it's all posturing and I'm not falling for them playing their little games. I'm tired of the BS, the panic buying (every week the same fucking food aisles are empty) the fear-mongering from ABC News. This feels like an actual nightmare hearing the words "social distancing" and the idea that life won't go back to normal.
 
VysePSU said:
Wisconsin just extended its lockdown to May 26. I can't believe this. I thought we were beginning to or were already in the process of flattening the curve and now they expect us to wait another month with the possibility of more people losing their jobs? I'm sure this pleases Nobody_Important Nobody_Important to know that Trump was wrong and people will continue to be safe, while our economy goes down the toilet and the number of people forced to collect unemployment gets higher.

Oh, and the Democrats want to give Americans $2000 a month but it's all posturing and I'm not falling for them playing their little games. I'm tired of the BS, the panic buying (every week the same fucking food aisles are empty) the fear-mongering from ABC News. This feels like an actual nightmare hearing the words "social distancing" and the idea that life won't go back to normal.
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I hear you man. I'm in California and the governor has made references to us being stuck inside until June.

These politicians will use any and all tragedies to posture and gain politically. It's lame
 
VysePSU said:
Wisconsin just extended its lockdown to May 26. I can't believe this. I thought we were beginning to or were already in the process of flattening the curve and now they expect us to wait another month with the possibility of more people losing their jobs? I'm sure this pleases Nobody_Important Nobody_Important to know that Trump was wrong and people will continue to be safe, while our economy goes down the toilet and the number of people forced to collect unemployment gets higher.

Oh, and the Democrats want to give Americans $2000 a month but it's all posturing and I'm not falling for them playing their little games. I'm tired of the BS, the panic buying (every week the same fucking food aisles are empty) the fear-mongering from ABC News. This feels like an actual nightmare hearing the words "social distancing" and the idea that life won't go back to normal.
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You can always tell who the most privileged and unaffected are when it comes to events such as this. Their endless supply of food and income, apparently. Or they hate themselves so much they want others to suffer along with their miserable existence.
 
DeepEnigma said:
You can always tell who the most privileged and unaffected are when it comes to events such as this. Their endless supply of food and income, apparently. Or they hate themselves so much they want others to suffer along with their miserable existence.
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Yup. I was talking to a friend that is actually getting paid in full (+ benefits) to be not working and he was mad that him and a skeleton crew may be required to go back to work in a couple weeks. Mentioned not getting treated too well and I told him hey man you've been getting paid the last 4 weeks for nothing - I know a shitload of people that straight up lost their jobs.

Yes, we need to be safe and cautious and not take this lightly, but we also need to make sure we're not being so overly cautious at the same time.

The fact of the matter is this is going to come back and there will be flare ups. Are we going to do this every time until everyone is vaccinated? What's going to happen to folks that refuse? I'm no anti-vaxxer, but I see the anti-vaxxer label and narrative is going to be thrown at people that are skeptical of such things.
 
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DunDunDunpachi said:
People need to get to work to produce the things that people are waiting in long lines to get.

We know where the heaviest-hit areas are located. Let's get back to work so that we can share the burden of the cities and states whose economies can't open back up as easily. We can proceed cautiously, testing more and more citizens as we go, keeping our distance in social situations as we head into summer. They're already fearmongering about the "second wave".
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The lockdown is starting to backfire big time because it seems that healthcare workers can't handle the pressure of handling many patients.

I say reopen businesses and let herd immunity take it's natural course. Sorry to say but this course of action is for the greater good because if we lockdown for an entire year, the people who we are trying to protect will die due to a falling economy.

The whole lockdown is a bit of a fallacy since a crash in the economy will kill the vulnerable people due to a lack of healthcare funding.

Edit: A fantastic rebuttal to this post by poppabk poppabk :
Healthcare workers are being crushed under the weight of patients and your solution is too drastically increase the number of patients they have to see?
What do you think herd immunity is? From what you wrote it seems that you think it is let all the weak die?
The whole point of the lockdown is to slow the spread so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed, and so we can aquire herd immunity at a steady pace. The point of herd immunity is that the weak are less likely to get exposed because the majority of the 'herd' can no longer be carriers.
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Those are fine guidelines, but it seems like most governors are focused more on keeping the curve flat and trying more testing & PPE before jumping on that train, even CEO's of major companies are cautioning opening too quickly focusing on that before it's somewhat contained.
 
The plan has plenty of steps and gate keeping to keep things from going to quickly. Even mitigation and other guidelines are baked in and its a 3 phase plane too boot.

I don't see anything about it going quickly. I think some of the Trump supporters out there need to have some patience and let things go slowly, but I also think the media needs to stop spinning this as if Trump and evil conservatives want to force people out of their houses at gun point.

There was fear mongering that on Easter Trump was just going to open up willy nilly and here we are post easter and the doors weren't flung open. Its time to stop with the fear mongering its not helping anyone. The country needs buy in and ALL citizens working in the same direction.
 
I don't have an issue with the guidelines. Obviously they're going to want to have something in place and ready to go before regions start getting better. That way they can be implemented as the situation dictates rather than sitting around waiting for the numbers to drop, and only then formulating a plan to get the economy going. Regions will ease into these phases as their situation dictates, and that's fine.
 
cryptoadam said:
The plan has plenty of steps and gate keeping to keep things from going to quickly. Even mitigation and other guidelines are baked in and its a 3 phase plane too boot.

I don't see anything about it going quickly. I think some of the Trump supporters out there need to have some patience and let things go slowly, but I also think the media needs to stop spinning this as if Trump and evil conservatives want to force people out of their houses at gun point.

There was fear mongering that on Easter Trump was just going to open up willy nilly and here we are post easter and the doors weren't flung open. Its time to stop with the fear mongering its not helping anyone. The country needs buy in and ALL citizens working in the same direction.
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Yeah the media has continued to show why they're so completely useless.

Trump said hey maybe things open by Easter - never promised or anything - and all we hear about on the media for the next couple days is how Trump is opening everything on Easter.

I didn't even vote for the fuckin guy, but these psychos in the media have forced me to semi defend the dude
 
darkestdame said:
Those are fine guidelines, but it seems like most governors are focused more on keeping the curve flat and trying more testing & PPE before jumping on that train, even CEO's of major companies are cautioning opening too quickly focusing on that before it's somewhat contained.
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A lot of companies have very little need to bring people back into the office anytime soon or even at all in many cases. I could totally see myself working from home 90% or more of the rest of the year. Still, I think it's good that the guidance at least allows for companies that need to be able to work together in a physical space the ability to do that as long as certain criteria or met. The default of "shut down unless you're arbitrarily deemed essential" is just not sustainable.
 
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Virus is here to stay, I guess we'll have to adapt, new social norms, telecommute, healthcare providers will have whatever they can until vaccine or treatment is ready, economy will change, don't think many people in a hurry to board a plane, or eat out, and importantly, can't rely on China for critical supply chains as much as possible, that needs to change.
 
Chankoras said:
Virus is here to stay, I guess we'll have to adapt, new social norms, telecommute, healthcare providers will have whatever they can until vaccine or treatment is ready, economy will change, don't think many people in a hurry to board a plane, or eat out, and importantly, can't rely on China for critical supply chains as much as possible, that needs to change.
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Sure would be awesome if this led to a reduction in international travel, increased localization of economies, less commuting and more teleworking, etc. Would be revamping economies and fighting pollution all at once.
 
Zefah said:
Sure would be awesome if this led to a reduction in international travel, increased localization of economies, less commuting and more teleworking, etc. Would be revamping economies and fighting pollution all at once.
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I think this is short term outcome, eventually things will get back to normal or close to it.
 
MiyazakiHatesKojima said:
The lockdown is starting to backfire big time because it seems that healthcare workers can't handle the pressure of handling many patients.

I say reopen businesses and let herd immunity take it's natural course. Sorry to say but this course of action is for the greater good because if we lockdown for an entire year, the people who we are trying to protect will die due to a falling economy.

The whole lockdown is a bit of a fallacy since a crash in the economy will kill the vulnerable people due to a lack of healthcare funding.
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I get what you're saying but on the flip side things will get ugly when people start dying at home, at work and on the streets in developed countries.
 
Well US citizens... you've got lots of guns use them.
Your targets are politicians, corporate CEO's and Hollywood moguls.
 
GHG said:
I get what you're saying but on the flip side things will get ugly when people start dying at home, at work and on the streets in developed countries.
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And it will get uglier when people lose their homes, economic stability, and livelihoods. History has shown how terrible that can be to a nation's society.

Why are we suddenly caring more about people dying? It's a legitimate question and the answer will inevtablt be because we are told so.

Tens of Millions of people die every year due to much more preventable reasons and yet, governments don't do a shit.

Read about that state which doesn't even have a clean source of water, Flint Michigan. No one gave a shit about it and peoples health were at direct risk despite the problem arising from a lack of state funding.

I will say this: The lockdown will have dire consequences on society's ability to live sustainable lives in terms of economic and financial wellbeing, which are directly in relation to a person's health.
 
I can't wait until this lock down is over so i can go from working then staying home and doing nothing then get back to my normal life of working then staying home and doing nothing.
 
Jooxed said:
I can't wait until this lock down is over so i can go from working then staying home and doing nothing then get back to my normal life of working then staying home and doing nothing.
Click to expand...

Watch how all the people going out daily to "exercise" no longer go out daily to exercise.

MiyazakiHatesKojima said:
And it will get uglier when people lose their homes, economic stability, and livelihoods. History has shown how terrible that can be to a nation's society.

Why are we suddenly caring more about people dying? It's a legitimate question and the answer will inevtablt be because we are told so.

Tens of Millions of people die every year due to much more preventable reasons and yet, governments don't do a shit.

Read about that state which doesn't even have a clean source of water, Flint Michigan. No one gave a shit about it and peoples health were at direct risk despite the problem arising from a lack of state funding.

I will say this: The lockdown will have dire consequences on society's ability to live sustainable lives in terms of economic and financial wellbeing, which are directly in relation to a person's health.
Click to expand...

It's a case of pick your poison unfortunately.

Which one is the right type of poison is difficult to say. When lives are on the line whichever way you go it's never an easy choice.
 
MiyazakiHatesKojima said:
The lockdown is starting to backfire big time because it seems that healthcare workers can't handle the pressure of handling many patients.

I say reopen businesses and let herd immunity take it's natural course. Sorry to say but this course of action is for the greater good because if we lockdown for an entire year, the people who we are trying to protect will die due to a falling economy.

The whole lockdown is a bit of a fallacy since a crash in the economy will kill the vulnerable people due to a lack of healthcare funding.
Click to expand...
Healthcare workers are being crushed under the weight of patients and your solution is too drastically increase the number of patients they have to see?
What do you think herd immunity is? From what you wrote it seems that you think it is let all the weak die?
The whole point of the lockdown is to slow the spread so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed, and so we can aquire herd immunity at a steady pace. The point of herd immunity is that the weak are less likely to get exposed because the majority of the 'herd' can no longer be carriers.
 
I guess one other thing we get to look forward to as the economy is opened up are the legions of Karens screaming at everyone, "That's not six feet away!!!" then wondering how they got on a YouTube compilation mocking them.
 
poppabk said:
Healthcare workers are being crushed under the weight of patients and your solution is too drastically increase the number of patients they have to see?
What do you think herd immunity is? From what you wrote it seems that you think it is let all the weak die?
The whole point of the lockdown is to slow the spread so that hospitals don't get overwhelmed, and so we can aquire herd immunity at a steady pace. The point of herd immunity is that the weak are less likely to get exposed because the majority of the 'herd' can no longer be carriers.
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This is an excellent rebuttal.
 
You guys are gonna die, funnily enough, by going to the gym.

Best places to go to when you don't want to share bodily fluids. Just the best.
 
Phunkydiabetic said:
Reopening? Pff hahahahah why? The infection rate hasnt even peaked yet. NYC is still a massive shitshow, in WestChester County 1 in 44 people are infected. As far as I know that's the highest concentration of infections in the world (correct me if I'm wrong). Today Illinois posted its highest amount of deaths in one day. Infection rates are rising in California.

In fact, instead of listing off every single state it is much easier to say "the vast majority of states have not seen a downward trend in infection rates yet". And yet....they want to start "opening up" America again? Whaf kind of boneheaded decision is this? I agree with @triplestation here, this is playing with fire. I truly hope it works out for you guys down there but it's hard to see that happening.
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Phunkydiabetic said:
Damn, U.S. had a record 4,591 deaths in the past 24 hours.

hEy GUys LeTs OPeN Up AmEriCA aGaiN gUys hEY guYs wHaT cOuLd gO wrOnG?!
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Considering it's on a state-by-state basis when and at what speed they open up why not? Why keep the entire country locked down when some areas are doing better and could reopen sooner than a New York for example?
 
Phunkydiabetic said:
Damn, U.S. had a record 4,591 deaths in the past 24 hours.

hEy GUys LeTs OPeN Up AmEriCA aGaiN gUys hEY guYs wHaT cOuLd gO wrOnG?!
Click to expand...

I posted about two weeks ago that the daily fatalities total around now would be 4-5k. It's just how it spreads. I'd imagine it will continue to grow then hopefully start to level out in another couple of weeks.

You just need to keep isolating. Even if everything opens up again just be as careful as you can be. It's not about you, it's about who you might infect.

A study here in the UK predicted that one infected person who infected others would ultimately be potentially responsible for 50k getting the virus. Most of us will be fine, but it will kill people we know.

It's not just about the virus. If the hospitals are overloaded it will mean others will not be able to be treated. Cancer patients, heart attacks, strokes, car accidents, it's everyone.

I've tried to keep my cool on this but China need to pay for this. Any international debt owed to them (which is billions) should be declared null and void. This is a global catastrophe.
 
Bigrx1 said:
Considering it's on a state-by-state basis when and at what speed they open up why not? Why keep the entire country locked down when some areas are doing better and could reopen sooner than a New York for example?
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f2GxMiF.jpg


www.npr.org

How Severe Is Your State's Coronavirus Outbreak?

View NPR's maps and graphics to see where COVID-19 is hitting hardest in the U.S., which state outbreaks are growing and which are leveling off.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

There is no data showing that there is a consistent downturn in infection rates. In none of the states. Only a handful *appear* to be plateauing, and even a plateau doesnt mean they were out of the woods yet. Some may be able to open sooner for sure but none of the data seems to suggest that is going to happen anytime soon.
 
Phunkydiabetic said:
f2GxMiF.jpg


www.npr.org

How Severe Is Your State's Coronavirus Outbreak?

View NPR's maps and graphics to see where COVID-19 is hitting hardest in the U.S., which state outbreaks are growing and which are leveling off.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

There is no data showing that there is a consistent downturn in infection rates. In none of the states. Only a handful *appear* to be plateauing, and even a plateau doesnt mean they were out of the woods yet. Some may be able to open sooner for sure but none of the data seems to suggest that is going to happen anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Quite a few states are nearing plateau and based on the step-up process of the opening up I think it's reasonable. They aren't just opening the floodgates to everything even in the states that will start to slowly open back up. At this point it's basically been a plan of reopening that's been presented to give some guidelines for the governors, even the states that have started to get at plateau aren't jumping drastically into activities.
 
Bigrx1 said:
Quite a few states are nearing plateau and based on the step-up process of the opening up I think it's reasonable. They aren't just opening the floodgates to everything even in the states that will start to slowly open back up. At this point it's basically been a plan of reopening that's been presented to give some guidelines for the governors, even the states that have started to get at plateau aren't jumping drastically into activities.
Click to expand...

It's the same old shit.

Trump: "Let's start planning on how to re-open. . ."
Media: "DrUmPf WaNtS pEoPlE tO dIe FoR pRoFiT!!1"

and if Trump waited until after the plateau to start planning:

Media: "WhY iS tHeRe No PlAn YeT!!1!"

No matter what Trump does he'll be criticized for it, same as always.
 
Phunkydiabetic said:
f2GxMiF.jpg


www.npr.org

How Severe Is Your State's Coronavirus Outbreak?

View NPR's maps and graphics to see where COVID-19 is hitting hardest in the U.S., which state outbreaks are growing and which are leveling off.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

There is no data showing that there is a consistent downturn in infection rates. In none of the states. Only a handful *appear* to be plateauing, and even a plateau doesnt mean they were out of the woods yet. Some may be able to open sooner for sure but none of the data seems to suggest that is going to happen anytime soon.
Click to expand...

Why is this the metric you are choosing to make your point? Wouldn't it be better to look at the growth rate or rate of doubling?

Here in Washington State, we're are 11,445 confirmed cases as of April 16th. Half of that is 5,722. The closest day would have been March 31st at which the cumulative total was 5,984. That's 16 full days to double if I'm not stupid. So how long did it take for it to double before that? 5,984/2 = 2,861. The closest day to that would have been March 26th at which the cumulative cases hit 3,200. So that's 5 (maybe 6 days) to double. Looks like a *dramatic* reduction in growth to me.

How about deaths?

10 deaths as of March 4th, 19 deaths as of March 8th (4-day doubling), 40 deaths as of March 14th (10-day doubling), 89 deaths as of March 20th (6-day doubling), 175 deaths as of March 27th (7-day doubling), 338 deaths as of April 3rd (7-day doubling), and 603 deaths as of April 16th (still not doubled after 13 days).

Source: https://www.wsha.org/for-patients/coronavirus/coronavirus-tracker/

So yeah, the growth rate of new infections and deaths has slowed down a whole lot here.
 
infinitys_7th said:
It's the same old shit.

Trump: "Let's start planning on how to re-open. . ."
Media: "DrUmPf WaNtS pEoPlE tO dIe FoR pRoFiT!!1"

and if Trump waited until after the plateau to start planning:

Media: "WhY iS tHeRe No PlAn YeT!!1!"

No matter what Trump does he'll be criticized for it, same as always.
Click to expand...

Man, I'm sure Trump is glad that you're around to defend his honor. Phew. Especially in cases like this when Trump wasnt mentioned at all!
 
Phunkydiabetic said:
Man, I'm sure Trump is glad that you're around to defend his honor. Phew. Especially in cases like this when Trump wasnt mentioned at all!
Click to expand...

It's Trump's plan, so why wouldn't it be about Trump?

We need to be prepared as soon as possible to start opening up the country. Having a plan in place beforehand that specifically addresses testing and guidelines for opening up the country is a good thing, and this is a draft.

The Kung Flu will disappear eventually, especially with warm months coming up to further help slow the spread - the US has to be ready as soon as possible, and given how spread out the country is remote areas will almost certainly be safe to reopen much sooner than other areas.
 
TaySan said:
Completely irresponsible to open things up this early.
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Did you read the conditions and guidelines at all? You still think they're irresponsible? You just want unconditional lockdown so people either have to have a nice cushy work-from-home job or rely on the government for assistance to get by?
 
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