Paper Mario 2 .. Sales prediction

Less than the first one.

How much did the first one do in North America? Everywhere I heard people just said "Less than 500K"
 
Paper Mario 1 isn't the best model for comparison, coming in N64's last few months on market and in the slowest season of the year. PM2 will pass it by Christmas, with GC being just past the halfway point and the holidays approaching... just look how well Mario & Luigi sold last holiday season...

By the end of the year for Paper Mario 2...

Japan: 400k
America: 500k
PAL: 200k
Worldwide: 1.1M
 
BeOnEdge said:
wasnt pikmin 2 supposed to set the world ablaze too? every damn major release its the same parade from you people.
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Most had pretty modest expectations for Pikmin 2 (any percieved "world ablaze" reaction was likely in expectation to game quality, not sales performance). Mario's a much stronger brand though, you're head's in the sand if you think it won't sell markedly better. Just look how well all the other spinoffs (Party, Kart, Pinball, Vs DK, & Luigi, etc) sell...
 
I'll concede to the possibility that PM2 may outsell PM1 because of the lack of other game options for Gamecube owners this holiday season. It definitely will not do more than 500K before year-end though.

I don't think that PM2 will handily outsell PM1. The N64's userbase was much, much stronger in all territories compared to the GC. PM2 will sell consistantly until another major Nintendo game with similar gameplay picks up the torch, which looks to be well into next year when that happens.
 
Back in '02, I was surprised at the strength of Mario Sunshine compared to Metroid Prime because I thought the new, more slick game would be more popular, but if there's anything that Christmas trends have indicated, is that Mario is still a powerful brand during Christmas.

Mario Kart sold 1 million last year, probably could have sold more if retailers had Cubes and copies of the games on the shelf, and the Mario Party games have done very well during Christmas.

I think the more "new-type" Nintendo games like Echoes and Pikmin 2 probably will serve a good portion of Cube owners that take the time to look for titles like that, but games like Donkey Konga and Paper Mario 2 are going to have a bigger chance at getting through to casual Cube owners because of the character properties in the games. In addition, it will probably appeal to those in the 12-24 crowd that bought Tales of Symphonia and Skies of Arcadia Legends.

Nintendo was wise to release it early because it will have a bigger impact at retail along w/ Donkey Konga because they now have time to settle in as the "new" Nintendo titles before Christmas arrives.

If Crystal Chronicles could do 250,000 (first month) as a connectivty action-rpg, and Tales of Symphonia could do over 100,000 without any advertising, I think Paper Mario could easily top Crystal Chronicles in first month sales due to the postive reviews, Mario license, and anticipation. Like Mario Sunshine back in '02, it's basically Nintendo's most "mainstream" title for the holidays.

I think it has the potential to outsell what the first Paper Mario did by the end of the year, especially if Nintendo advertises the title. Either way, because of the strength of the GCN lineup next year and Nintendo really pushing for the system to have a strong "end-cycle" lineup, I think this will definitely have more lasting power and shelf life than the first Paper Mario, which was released against 2 Zelda GBC titles and the GBA, with the GCN just months away...
 
Vagabond said:
The N64's userbase was much, much stronger in all territories compared to the GC.
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Not at the points these two games are launching. N64 was pretty much finished, while GameCube's only starting it's 4th year...
 
BeOnEdge said:
i say the lack of wares will drives those to another console this time around.
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Don't kid yourself, GameCube's slowing down but things are no where near "Dreamcast bad".
 
I think Paper Mario RPG will sell 1 Million in the U.S. by the end of next year. Nintendo games always sell tens of thousands each month in the U.S., especially when they drop in price, which they should after about a year or so.
 
I'd actually say that three solid RPGs for a Nintendo system within a short span of time is pretty decent. ToS, PM2, and BK, with two, in particularly, in time for the holidays.
 
Hard to say. MS will actually give it a chance to sell though which Nintendo didn't. The marketing campaign Nintendo did for it was absolutely terrible.
 
SolidSnakex said:
Hard to say. MS will actually give it a chance to sell though which Nintendo didn't. The marketing campaign Nintendo did for it was absolutely terrible.
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Sure but unlike Paper Mario 1/2, Conker 64/X will be releasing in similar seasons at similar points in their platform's lifecycle...
 
SolidSnakex said:
Hard to say. MS will actually give it a chance to sell though which Nintendo didn't. The marketing campaign Nintendo did for it was absolutely terrible.
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same can be said for the first Paper Mario.

Conkey and Paper Mario were released at bad times (the end of N64 lifecycle). The Dreamcast and PS2 had already inserted themselves into the game and the GBA and GCN were released that year.

Nintendo's retail support of the N64 just dropped to zero really quickly, while the PS-X games could use backwards compatibilty and the PSOne's shelf life to justify campaigns for pushing those games to new buyers and not just those who already had a system...
 
I wasn't talking about when they released Conker, I was talking about the ad campaign. Because it was an "adult" ad Nintendo decided to only show it after a certain time at night. So alot of gamers never even got to see it.
 
I am at the end of the second chapter and so far the game sucks ass imo. The only reason I am playing it is because I spent $50 on the damn thing expecting it to be a little interesting.
 
SolidSnakex said:
I wasn't talking about when they released Conker, I was talking about the ad campaign. Because it was an "adult" ad Nintendo decided to only show it after a certain time at night. So alot of gamers never even got to see it.
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After 10 PM... do most gamers go to sleep by then? Nintendo also pushed Conker advertising in more adult focused spaces (bars, Playboy, condoms, etc)... getting the word out wasn't the problem, it was the fact that N64's market had dried up by then. Which is also the fatal flaw when comparing Paper Mario 1 & 2.
 
jarrod said:
After 10 PM... do most gamers go to sleep by then? Nintendo also pushed Conker advertising in more adult focused spaces (bars, Playboy, condoms, etc)... getting the word out wasn't the problem, it was the fact that N64's market had dried up by then. Which is also the fatal flaw when comparing Paper Mario 1 & 2.
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Alot of younger gamers are asleep by then and they do make up a good portion of the industry. They never should've done that ads like that. I can't think of any other games that's actually had an advertising campaign like that either.
 
SolidSnakex said:
Alot of younger gamers are asleep by then and they do make up a good portion of the industry. They never should've done that ads like that. I can't think of any other games that's actually had an advertising campaign like that either.
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Conker's not appropriate for younger gamers, hence the new marketing strategy. Are you saying Nintendo should've purposely targeted an inappropriate audience?
 
jarrod said:
Conker's not appropriate for younger gamers, hence the new marketing strategy. Are you saying Nintendo should've purposely targeted an inappropriate audience?
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it worked for GTA...
 
jarrod said:
Conker's not appropriate for younger gamers, hence the new marketing strategy. Are you saying Nintendo should've purposely targeted an inappropriate audience?
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Every M Rated game is advertised like that. Why not Conker? I think they even advertised Perfect Dark during the day, but not Conker.
 
SolidSnakex said:
Alot of younger gamers are asleep by then and they do make up a good portion of the industry. They never should've done that ads like that. I can't think of any other games that's actually had an advertising campaign like that either.
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It not like MS is going to advertise Conkers during Blue's Clues and Yu-gi-oh. If you think the advertising for the remake will be that much more, you'll be dissapointed.


Paper Mario 2 will outsell Paper Mario. The first game sold 500k (some charts show it over, others under), Mario & Luigi has sold about 900k and is selling at a rate of about 20k per month. Only 4 of 15 Mario games have sold less than 500k this generation; 3 of which were just released this year and the other one (and 2 of the previous) are on-track to cross half a mil. Infact, only 7 Mario games have sold less than a million; 2 of those will one day, and the rest were only released last year or later.

Mario is still one of the strongest brand names in video game (bested only by maybe Madden and/or Pokemon). Paper Mario 2 should have no trouble surpassing 500k... it'll probably wind-up around 850k over its lifetime.
 
Anyone who thinks this title does less than 500k overall is absolutely insane. It will be near that spot by the end of the year and will sell a good 20-25k for months to come until it goes PC and then sell consistently until it hits the 1 million mark. If there's anything the $20 price has shown with Mario games, it's that it'll ensure lengthy sales. Look at Luigi's Mansion for a perfect example.
 
While I could give a shit less about sales, I will say it will most likely sell less than it deserves to. Fantastic game.
 
Considering the much smaller release list for GCN over the next 3 months, I'd say it would be hard for PM2 to not do better than 400k at a minimum through the end of the year.

Tak 2 is #9 at (PM2 #11) Amazon now things are so relatively slow on GCN.

As far as for the remainder of the gen, probably 1 mil ww and 540k in the US by this time next year. I don't know how well GCN and it's games will be selling after that when PSP, Xenon, and a cheaper PSTwo are available.
 
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