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[SkyOdin]

Oh, okay. I thought you were just paraphrasing there, and I thought we could explicitly share role names.

I have sort of been paraphrasing, since I didn't really feel like doube-checking the exact spelling, and all of the craziness around The versus That was kinda silly. You probably need to swap around an article or two, but that is essentially my role name.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

If I was going to fake claim though, I would not go for something this elaborate.

If you were fake claiming, you wouldn't have to come up with it yourself.

 

[SkyOdin]

If you were fake claiming, you wouldn't have to come up with it yourself.

If I was partnered with someone I would have vetoed a suggestion this crazy.

 

[hey_monkey]

Darryl & Dr. Worm --> responsible for providing reads on: SkyOdin, BlackBuzzard
Moonkid & Swamped --> responsible for providing reads on: Palmer_v1, acohrs
Palmer_v1 & StanleyPalmtree --> responsible for providing reads on: WhereAreMahDragonz, isaacnukem
acohrs & WhereAreMahDragonz --> responsible for providing reads on: Darryl, Lifeline
Lifeline & Sawneeks --> responsible for providing reads on: Natiko, oreomunsta
Burbeting & oreomunsta --> responsible for providing reads on: Swamped, Blargonaut
BlackBuzzard & isaacnukem --> responsible for providing reads on: Burbeting, 30yearsofhurt
Natiko & SkyOdin --> responsible for providing reads on: Sawneeks, Moonkid
hey_monkey & 30yearsofhurt --> responsible for providing reads on: SexyFish, StanleyPalmtree
Blargonaut & SexyFish --> responsible for providing reads on: Dr. Worm, hey_monkey​

Catching up. But just in case we did want to look them over again now, here were Blarg's proposed read teams.

 

[SkyOdin]

Catching up. But just in case we did want to look them over again now, here were Blarg's proposed read teams.

I doubt there are many actual clues buried in that list, since Blarg is trying to pretend to be town (if we can trust your check).

On the other hand, Blarg and Swamped are paired as analysis targets.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

If I was partnered with someone I would have vetoed a suggestion this crazy.

It's just crazy enough for a godfather

 

[Dr. Worm]

UNVOTE

Let's talk awhile fam, especially about where to go after lynching Blarg.

I'd go to Verelios, and then work toward figuring out who Swamped may have been trying to save on D1.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I'd go to Verelios, and then work toward figuring out who Swamped may have been trying to save on D1.

Err isn't the reverse order more prudent?

 

[hey_monkey]

hey_monkey, why did you investigate Blargonaut last night? In the wake of Swamped's flip, he'd be an obvious scumpick anyway - why not use it on someone who could credibly go either way?

I addressed this a little already but I'll give my full process I guess.

Wanted to use my checks early since from anime I learned I can seem scummy just due to existing. Didn't think I'd live long, but it meant I had hard choices to make. Checked Sky d1 because he was weird. And frankly I liked Sky in anime - he seemed smart - so I wanted to know if I could trust him.

n2 I actually sent a check on Darryl first and rescinded. I waffled on people who were on swamped votes v people who were on acohrs, I considered some inactives, I went through the list I posted earlier, and finally decided on Blarg because I figured some of my choices wouldn't be trusted if I got a red check because of where I landed yesterday, but mostly I checked Blarg for my own peace of mind. I hadn't trusted him and then when he started saying what I thought I wanted to hear, I fell right in. So he was my final command.

Are we allowed to share the command? Mine was pretty funny I thought.

 

[hey_monkey]

Oh, I had to look up framer - that does seem like a long-game proposition but I guess it's possible.

 

[Dr. Worm]

Err isn't the reverse order more prudent?

I think there's a better chance of Verelios being scum than there is for any one of our picks for who was saved, especially if Blargonaut flips scum, and I would rather start with the more obvious picks to ensure we have a "cushion" to mislynch.

 

[Palmer_v1]

My vote on acohrs yesterday was purely reactive. I was mad about yet another vanilla. After I considered though, swamped met all the same criteria as acohrs and had been more suspicious with the voting d1, so I swapped back to swamped.

 

[Verelios]

Verelios. Why did you vote Acohrs over swamped in a sitaution where the two were tied, even though you said that you didn't believe Swamped's claim, and you voted on acohrs before he claimed vanilla?

One part of it was that I didn't see how Swamped's vote switch day 1 warranted a Lynch train while the other was, I honestly didn't believe Palmer was being halfway genuine in his scum hunting (I was somewhat wrong with Swamped's flip) while Acohrs was coasting along even though he was one of the two contenders of a lynch train.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I think there's a better chance of Verelios being scum than there is for any one of our picks for who was saved, especially if Blargonaut flips scum, and I would rather start with the more obvious picks to ensure we have a "cushion" to mislynch.

How?? Now that Swamped flipped, the shenanigans I called out are legitimized.

 

[Dr. Worm]

How?? Now that Swamped flipped, the shenanigans I called out are legitimized.

Which shenanigans are you referring to? The third-party lynch trains?

 

[Burbeting]

One part of it was that I didn't see how Swamped's vote switch day 1 warranted a Lynch train while the other was, I honestly didn't believe Palmer was being halfway genuine in his scum hunting (I was somewhat wrong with Swamped's flip) while Acohrs was coasting along even though he was one of the two contenders of a lynch train.

Can you point out to me the posts in D2 before your sudden vote on acohrs were you say that you think acohrs is more suspicious than swamped.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Which shenanigans are you referring to? The third-party lynch trains?

There is a LOT of context now.

Going to need some time to catch up on everything, but...





These two votes stand out to me. Two votes, at the last minute, to cause a no-lynch day with no explanation. If we can agree that a no lynch is not in the best interest of mafia (and in most cases, not in the best interest of town) one of these votes was mafia trying to push a non-mafia over the edge.

I'm leaning...

VOTE:Swamped

simply because she had two votes with no justification attached to them at the last minute, the other being another player with high vote count (BlackBuzzard). Then if she's mafia, I'll wager Palmer is too, given he's already questionable and Swamped's vote acted to save his butt.

This is actually a narrative I can buy into.

Look, let's face it, something weird happened with Swamped. There was a total lack of interaction with other players at day end, but she changed her vote to someone who wasn't on the chopping block until the last few moments. Either protecting BB, protecting you, or trying to buy town cred by lynching WAMD, Swamped made a decision based on outside information. She went from thinking the vote was between BB and 30, to suddenly changing to WAMD. That's weird.

Mostly. I've also been pondering over her justification..



Then there's this about 4 minutes before deadline.



That is just wildly inconsistent, I think. She's pondering over BB and 30, she claims she doesn't know what the vote count is, but jumps on WAMD at the last second. Bizarre.

Aren't you contradicting yourself right there in the bolded? You say you didn't see the vote update, but you knew Palmer had 3 votes? Wouldn't the vote count be irrelevant then, if you knew what the count was already?

You also say you panicked when you saw one vote go onto Dragonz (again, in your own words, without knowing the total vote count) and your response is to move your vote to Dragonz? That seems a weird response, and definitely odd for someone who seemingly wasn't even on your radar based on your own posts.

Moreover, there was less than a minute difference between 30yearsofhurt's vote and your last vote. You were very obviously following the vote up until the last minute, despite your claims to the contrary, if you were able to react to something within a minute. Plus, you were around 10 minutes before the day ended, so it's likely you were watching the situation very closely, so I don't believe for a second you were acting with a lack of information.



As for what you were intending to accomplish, I think there are three possibilities:

1) BlackBuzzard is scum. You were backing off of him in case someone changed votes at the last moment. Likelihood: medium.

2) Palmer is scum. You were intending to protect him by pushing a tie. There seemed to be little point to switching your votes if BB had as many votes as WAMD. Likelihood: low.

3) WAMD is scum. You were trying to bus her out of the game when you saw that the vote against her was picking up steam. Likelihood: high.

Yes, you brought up a good point. If there were no scum and all town in those top 3 candidates, there probably would have been a lot less movement in the last few minutes of the phase. That's likely why Swamped's actions stood out to me so much. Erratic actions at day end are typically a sign that there was something worth acting erratic about in the day end vote.


I have an important question now. If Swamped claims she did not see the vote update by Crimson, she said she did not want a tie, and she knew BlackBuzzard had a majority, why change votes at all?

Let's revisit the sequence of events.

2:50 PM. Swamped is present. She asks for justification for lynching BlackBuzzard and claims she wants to keep Palmer around.

2:56 PM. The vote count is BlackBuzzard (3), Palmer (3), WAMD (2). In her head, Swamped claims she doesn't know the exact count and doesn't acknowledge there being any votes on WAMD. She ponders over BB and 30. #595

2:57 PM. Swamped moves her vote to BlackBuzzard, bringing his tally to (4). #600

2:58 PM. 30 votes for WAMD, bringing her tally up to (3). #609

2:59 PM. This is an important part. Natriko moves his vote to Palmer, bringing Palmer's tally to (4). Swamped doesn't see this happen in time to react. #613

2:59 PM. Swamped moves her vote to WAMD, bringing WAMD's tally to (4) and leading to a tie. #616


Swamped is telling the truth on one thing - she wanted Palmer to stay in the game and she did not want a tie, but I don't think the former is because she's trying to help Palmer. Again, according to herself, WAMD was not on her radar and she did not see any momentum for WAMD until literally the last two minutes; she caused the push on WAMD, when she could have pushed BlackBuzzard out instead by staying put. Why is a question for another time, but it's evident she was trying to push WAMD out with a last moment swing, over Palmer and BB. She did not see Natiko's change in vote in time to react to it, either.

Going back to the actual vote count, Swamped says she knew the vote count on Palmer but not on WAMD. The only vote she saw go onto WAMD was the one from 30, so according to her narrative, she only had one vote attributed to WAMD in her head at 2 minutes before the deadline. Isn't switching votes at the last moment an unnecessary risk for a town player, especially when Swamped's vote was on one of two players she was considering?

TL;DR: if Swamped wanted to meet her self-proclaimed goals of saving Palmer and voting BB or 30, she would have never switched her vote to WAMD

Also, Swamped, if you were unsure of what the actual vote count was on WAMD, wasn't moving your vote to WAMD increasing the chances of a tie?

 

[Verelios]

Don't understand why scumPalmer would know how many Vanillas were in the game, don't understand why PR townPalmer would know how many Vanillas were in the game, dont understand hoe vanilla townPalmer would know how many vanillas were in the game.

I get the feeling palmers claim was more a slip of the tongue

should drop some more hints and reads in case I am actually lynched to help town with my flip:

01. [m] isaacnukem - New - UTC+8 - meh
02. [m] Moonkid - New - GMT+12 Replaced by [m] LaunchpadMcQ. - leantown
03. [they] Darryl - EST - null
04. [m] Lifeline - EST - town
05. [m] SkyOdin - PDT - null
06. [f] hey_monkey - EST - null
08. [m] Dr. Worm - EST - leanscum
09. [m] Palmer_v1 - CST - town
10. [m] Blargonaut - GMT - leantown
11. [f] Sawneeks - PST Replaced by [m] Verelios - leanscum
12. [m] 30yearsofhurt - GMT+10 - null
13. [m] oreomunsta - GMT Replaced by [m] Nomadic Sparks - meh
14. [m] BlackBuzzard - CET - leanscum
15. [m] Burbeting - GMT+2 - leanscum
16. [m] acohrs - GMT - handsome
17. [m] Natiko - EST - null
19. [f] Swamped - EST - scum
20. [m] StanleyPalmtree - GMT+12 - leanscum

potential scums:

Swamped
BlackBuzzard
Sawneeks/Verelios
Burbeting
Dr. Worm

I really hate how town makes read lists with no information but gut feelings and then later fills it in with nebulous 'why's' while saying whoops after a mislynch. It's the same reason I disliked Palmer calling my 5 posts since subbing in coasting without any evidence. It's lazy and arbitrary as fuck.

I'm willing to vote for 30 (even though I could see his frustration with Palmer, it's true that he has been coasting) and Acohrs (partly because I don't believe Palmer when he tries to clear BB but scum reads Swamped, while he's also just coasting without any real contributions)

Not surprised, but all things being equal I'm not comfortable being on the same train as Palmer. If it comes down to it I'll vote Acorns off.

Swamped > 30 years > acorns > Palmer

I trust Palmer as town and also think that they are more likely to win this game than me

Palmer>Acorns>30>Swamped

30 > Swamped >acohrs > anyone but lifeline > Palmer

Sequence of events is a little wonky, but I suspect them of colluding together and just didn't want to get entangled

 

[Dr. Worm]

There is a LOT of context now.

Right, but I'm not sure if it answers the question as to who she saved - BlackBuzzard or Palmer_v1.

Is there something I'm missing here? Pretend I'm a cop and ELI5.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Right, but I'm not sure if it answers the question as to who she saved - BlackBuzzard or Palmer_v1.

Is there something I'm missing here? Pretend I'm a cop and ELI5.

I'm just saying, there's more to work with there than just Verelios being a little suspect.

 

[Dr. Worm]

I'm just saying, there's more to work with there than just Verelios being a little suspect.

I guess I should put it like this:

My personal odds of Swamped saving someone are high; they're higher than my odds that Verelios is scum. However, my personal odds that Swamped saved a specific person between the two and we can guess on our first try are lower than my odds that Verelios is scum.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I guess I should put it like this:

My personal odds of Swamped saving someone are high; they're higher than my odds that Verelios is scum. However, my personal odds that Swamped saved a specific person between the two and we can guess on our first try are lower than my odds that Verelios is scum.

I'm town-reading Palmer right now, and I have been for awhile, though.

 

[Dr. Worm]

I'm town-reading Palmer right now, and I have been for awhile, though.

Wait, really? How long is "awhile?"

Your roleclaim was always in error.

VOTE: Palmer_v1

VOTE: Palmer_v1

It's either him or Swamped. I'll move my vote to avoid a tie as necessary.

 

[hey_monkey]

Pretend I'm a cop and ELI5.

(;¬_¬)

There is a LOT of context now.

UGH I am still so mad at myself over this. I just didn't have the experience to hang the importance on that vote switch and how it probably reflected outside information. I'm sorry I didn't listen. I'm schooled now tho.

 

[hey_monkey]

I doubt there are many actual clues buried in that list, since Blarg is trying to pretend to be town (if we can trust your check).

On the other hand, Blarg and Swamped are paired as analysis targets.

And, if it matters, Blarg and SF-dead are paired to read Dr. Worm and me.

As for Swamped's votes, she did seem interested in Palmer not being lynched, but didn't she say that pretty directly and wouldn't that be pretty obvious? I'll go see what she said.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Wait, really? How long is "awhile?"

...ok like the last 5 hours of the day phase, but it felt a lot longer than it actually was with all the shit that happened. lol

 

[hey_monkey]

I'm going through Swamped's posts looking for stuff but I do want to point out that only she and BB claimed role names with franchises in them, right? She said dominos and he said Little Caesars. Everyone else has been more conceptual. Dunno if that means anything.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

I'm going through Swamped's posts looking for stuff but I do want to point out that only she and BB claimed role names with franchises in them, right? She said dominos and he said Little Caesars. Everyone else has been more conceptual. Dunno if that means anything.

While true, I would definitely not lynch on that bet

 

[hey_monkey]

While true, I would definitely not lynch on that bet

Nope, but we can throw it on the pile.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Nope, but we can throw it on the pile.

Indeed. I'm feeling pretty good about your intel and plays, monkey.

 

[Burbeting]

...ok like the last 5 hours of the day phase, but it felt a lot longer than it actually was with all the shit that happened. lol

Pretty sure your vote on Palmer went in when there was 90 minutes of the day phase left .

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Pretty sure your vote on Palmer went in when there was 90 minutes of the day phase left .

IT FELT LIKE 5 HOURS

 

[Burbeting]

IT FELT LIKE 5 HOURS

Ducks live in a different layer of time

 

[hey_monkey]

Here are some things I did notice while digging back through Swamped's posts, though.

(also, am I the only woman left? GAFia rough on women, damn)

Oh another player you should know about who has a reputation is Blargonaut. Most of his posts are quite cryptic and hilarious, he often does these huge gambits that never pay off, but none of this behavior is really alignment indicative for him. He tends to be a discussion point on D1, people love to want to policy lynch him lol. I'm personally usually against a policy lynch.

It's a little thing. Seemingly innocuous. But may support scumBlarg over neutralBlarg. But she engaged Blarg here for pushing Palmer (she also goes after Palmer in the same post).

Looking for Palmer stuff, she just said she didn't feel Palmer, 30, or Dragonz. Not very revealing, but she did go on to vote BB and then Dragonz as we know. But here she specifically said she didn't want Palmer lynched. She goes after Natiko for jumping on Palmer. But here she trusted Natiko (and me and Dr. Worm for acohrs).

And then there are her defense posts, saying the vote thing was surface, In that post, she reiterates that she "really really" didn't want Palmer lynched. But here she uses Palmer as justification for looking at Launch once she flips. And she says again her goal was making sure Palmer wasn't lynched.

It's a lot. My honest guess was she may have been trying to throw shade on Palmer so we'd lynch him if we flipped her. It seems awfully obvious otherwise, but I'm putting it out there for others to look at.

 

[hey_monkey]

She didn't post many reads, but here is Swamped on Darryl and Moonkid (now Launch),
acohrs, and saying she could vote for Dr. Worm. Here she nulled isaac, sumcread Moonkid, said Sky was active but suspicious, and said 30 was okay.

I may have missed a read or two, but that's what I found.

 

[LaunchpadMcQ]

Ducks live in a different layer of time

I am offended, sir

Here are some things I did notice while digging back through Swamped's posts, though.

(also, am I the only woman left? GAFia rough on women, damn)



It's a little thing. Seemingly innocuous. But may support scumBlarg over neutralBlarg. But she engaged Blarg here for pushing Palmer (she also goes after Palmer in the same post).

Looking for Palmer stuff, she just said she didn't feel Palmer, 30, or Dragonz. Not very revealing, but she did go on to vote BB and then Dragonz as we know. But here she specifically said she didn't want Palmer lynched. She goes after Natiko for jumping on Palmer. But here she trusted Natiko (and me and Dr. Worm for acohrs).

And then there are her defense posts, saying the vote thing was surface, In that post, she reiterates that she "really really" didn't want Palmer lynched. But here she uses Palmer as justification for looking at Launch once she flips. And she says again her goal was making sure Palmer wasn't lynched.

It's a lot. My honest guess was she may have been trying to throw shade on Palmer so we'd lynch him if we flipped her. It seems awfully obvious otherwise, but I'm putting it out there for others to look at.

Good pulls on Swamped. That Blarg stuff feels like it could be forced interactions.

Also, thank you for pulling up that Palmer stuff. It had slipped my mind, but that's why I was moving away from thinking she was trying to protect Palmer.

 

[hey_monkey]

Indeed. I'm feeling pretty good about your intel and plays, monkey.

doin my best, cap'n. wanna win.

 

[StanleyPalmtree]

So, were lynching blarg today right?

just holding of since no reason to hammer early?

 

[Blargonaut]

Alright, so it's one of those games, is it.

Got any breadcrumbs for that Role, hey_?

humour me

 

[hey_monkey]

Alright, so it's one of those games, is it.

Got any breadcrumbs for that Role, hey_?

humour me

For me? Actually, several. I posted a neapolitan pizza (had to look it up) and Sky noticed I was pushing for him as town.

 

[Blargonaut]

For me? Actually, several. I posted a neapolitan pizza (had to look it up) and Sky noticed I was pushing for him as town.

Can you tell me why Natiko died?

 

[Blargonaut]

So, were lynching blarg today right?

just holding of since no reason to hammer early?

yep, D3 is considered early enough for that sweet, sweet benefit-of-doubt

yeah, I'm just waiting

 

[Blargonaut]

Can you tell me why Natiko died?

maybe I can

 

[Blargonaut]

For me? Actually, several. I posted a neapolitan pizza (had to look it up) and Sky noticed I was pushing for him as town.

receipts, pls

And Swamped said she was a Domino's Pizza Fan, yet she was really "THE" Pineapple Pizza Fanatic. Names and covers could've been prepared in advance, or mod-given, yes?

Show me when you first breadcrumbed.

Why does SkyOdin noticing you have to do anything with your credibility?

 

[Darryl]

you can pass the clock until everyone shows up and maybe we'll get a claimed switcher but it's likely you're just going to have to claim with the evidence against ya blarg

 

[Darryl]

i think Nomadic Sparks still hadn't shown his head

 

[SkyOdin]

I'll ask you the same question I asked Burb earlier: if you could peek at the alignments of a few people right now just to give you clues, who would you pick?

With that, I'm gonna step away for a bit to let these developments sink in, I think.

And we'll have more when people start using up one or two shot abilities, if they haven't already. Which is normal, but it means we're gonna have a pretty vanilla town soon.

There are some differences between the role cards btw, but I doubt that's important. Just a little thing.

Then let's find the scum.

Here's Swamped's list of coasters:



Yesterday I made a list of five people I'd take out if I could, on request, but at this point, I'd swap Natiko out for Darryl, so it looks like this:

acohrs
BlackBuzzard
Blargonaut
isaacnukem
Darryl

I have things to say about some of the inactives but it's frowned upon so whatever. But this gives us a list of the following unique players to look at in terms of activity/coasting:

isaacnukem
acohrs
30years
oreomunsta
Burbeting
Stan

And the ones from my list that I suspected for overlapping reasons:
Blargonaut
BlackBuzzard
Darryl

If we're talking bastard, I don't know that I trust Lifeline. All that would convince me is that Lifeline was the same in Arkham.

Swamped feels more legit to me than in anime but that's really all I can do to read her here. I'm inclined at this point to believe Dragonz. I want to believe in Sawneeks because she busted ass to get things moving d1 but let's all remember that my first game was with CABOT the BETRAYER. I believe Palmer is likely town but Palmer's grand pronouncements cannot always be trusted. Confidence is good. But sometimes we're wrong. Sky is town.

I am iffy at this time on Dr. Worm so I can't make a firm, confident read. LaunchPad seems okay but is sticking to Swamped over anything else and I'm not sure about that.

This is what I have to offer right now.

Here are the posts that tipped me off to hey_monkey being a cop, in reverse chronological order because that is how search works. Bolded in that last one is what made me believe that she checked me Night 1.

 

[SkyOdin]

As for what information we get, let's not forget that when we wake up, there will be more, and I think we'll get hit hard, but we'll get information. And with today's flip on any of these candidates plus that, maybe we can start to take this game.

Missed one.

 

[hey_monkey]

receipts, pls

And Swamped said she was a Domino's Pizza Fan, yet she was really "THE" Pineapple Pizza Fanatic. Names and covers could've been prepared in advance, or mod-given, yes?

Yep, what I was saying was that one of the franchise claims was fake, so there's a possibility the other is, too. Someone mentioned d2 not trusting the franchise-name claimants. Now there's an extra shadow on them.

As for my breadcrumbs, I mentioned Sky not for my credibility but because he picked up on them and "okayed" me naming him. He saw what I was doing. See above. There are a few other things, like here when I said Sky had moved to my town list. I wasn't particularly secretive.

What say you, Blarg? I trusted your Mabel-eyed pineapple and it's all crumbling.

 

[hey_monkey]

i think Nomadic Sparks still hadn't shown his head

straight coasting.