Spyder_Monkey
Banned
If it's good, it'll top Avatar. If it's not, it'll still gross high but less than Jurassic World or the Avengers.
Place your bets: Age of Ultron vs The Force Awakens
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If it's good, it'll top Avatar. If it's not, it'll still gross high but less than Jurassic World or the Avengers.
Ghostmaster
Member
How long has a James Cameron movie been at the top of the box office?
17-18 years? That's insane.
17-18 years? That's insane.
Charles Foster Kane
Rosebud
It might make more than Avatar Domestic.
No Life King
Member
I'm betting TFA beats everything. Yup, including the toy big boys at the top. I'll be prepping for crow in case but I refuse to bet against my old buddy, Star Wars.
What the hell at this thread.
I don't care how old it is. How the heck did anybody think that Avengers was going to beat Star Wars at anything?
It's FREAKING STAR WARS.
Even with the prequels, Star Wars has essentially the highest cultural capital of any Sci-Fi or Fantasy movie franchise. People look at you like you're an alien from outer space if you haven't seen a Star Wars movie.
I don't care how old it is. How the heck did anybody think that Avengers was going to beat Star Wars at anything?
It's FREAKING STAR WARS.
Even with the prequels, Star Wars has essentially the highest cultural capital of any Sci-Fi or Fantasy movie franchise. People look at you like you're an alien from outer space if you haven't seen a Star Wars movie.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
No one cares about Avatar, everyone cares about Star Wars. Avatar being number 1 is an anomaly.
Baroquemantic
Member
Star Wars, easily, and I think Age of Ultron was an awesome movie.
crazy monkey
Banned
avatar was shitty movie but it did great business and will not be displaced from number one unless some global phenomenon happens.
If stars wars beats jurrasic world it should be happy. I do not think it will do that. international market loves dinos.
No Life King
Member
IKR?! I just got invited to join in the discussion, saw the first replies and...WHAT?!
Ah I see, you have no idea what you're talking about.
Silly as fuck. They cared enough to keep it the number 1 movie in the US for like 8 weeks straight, and to go on to gross nearly 3 Bil and shatter records in countless countries.
Grossing a lot in one country and then doing "ok" everywhere else is maybe an anomaly. Succeeding and breaking records everywhere is a "phenomenon" and when done twice by the same director, is a masterstroke
Star Wars is an established phenomenon, and the only question is whether it will hit across the world as Avatar did. Star Wars has always been tilted more towards the US, but the international market has changed a lot since Episode III.
spazchicken
Member
It's been too long and people are too hyped for this new Star Wars.
Star Wars 100% no question in my mind will be a bigger success at the box office.
Star Wars 100% no question in my mind will be a bigger success at the box office.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Avatar is at almost 2.8 billion dollars. That is such an absolutely insane number that it is unknowable how it achieved it, and unpredictable what will surpass it. There was fucking magic at work to get that insane of a number. There is no equation of Star Wars + Awesome = Avatar Numbers. That's too simple.
I will say, the best thing Star Wars has going for it (outside of being Star Wars) is that it's releasing in the winter. It could potentially pull a Titanic and just hang around for months. I'm curious if Disney will second guess moving Episode 8 to the usual summer blockbuster slot if Seven proves some real magic can happen releasing in the winter when the field is wide open.
prag16
Banned
I missed this topic the first time around, and the second time around. Seeing it now on the third time around, I'm shocked how sure so many people were that Ultron would curb stomp Star Wars (and Jurassic World for that matter).
Yes, yes, easy to say now especially with Ultron underperforming (and frankly, ending up as not a very good movie at all; though that wasn't shocking to me after I was severely underwhelmed by Winter Soldiier as well, and to a lesser extent Ironman 3).
I think it has a strong shot at blowing past Jurassic Worlds opening, and maybe even an outside shot at Avatar LTD. I don't think anything can be ruled out at this point.
EDIT: I was mostly thinking domestic US with this post. In terms of worldside, what I stated becomes more difficult to achieve, no doubt.
Yes, yes, easy to say now especially with Ultron underperforming (and frankly, ending up as not a very good movie at all; though that wasn't shocking to me after I was severely underwhelmed by Winter Soldiier as well, and to a lesser extent Ironman 3).
I think it has a strong shot at blowing past Jurassic Worlds opening, and maybe even an outside shot at Avatar LTD. I don't think anything can be ruled out at this point.
EDIT: I was mostly thinking domestic US with this post. In terms of worldside, what I stated becomes more difficult to achieve, no doubt.
FantasticMrFoxdie
Mumber
Whomever wins, I already won getting to watch all the crow eatings.
Also Disney already won.
Also Disney already won.
crazy monkey
Banned
T-ReX>>>>>>>>>>> everything.
Marvel fans are crazy, they think the world revolves around the MCU.
Dreams-Visions
Member
I think Avatar was special. It was a great film, but it was special in that it herralded the return of 3D to the theater with an experience that has yet to be topped as far as 3D goes. The quality of the 3D itself lended the film to multiple viewings to experience it over and over again with friends and family. It single-handedly sold 3D televisions.
Now. Star Wars is unquestionably the more valuable franchise and brand and lots of people will go see it in IMAX 3D...but how many people will? People like me will probably see the movie more than once because it's awesome, but how many will? It damn near has the Christmas holiday all to itself, so how well it goes from Dec 17-Dec 31 will tell us quite a bit about its trajectory.
One thing is certain: Disney clearly believes they have a film worth pouring (and I mean *pouring*) money into as far as marketing goes and tbqh, they haven't misstepped yet. This is a well-executed, well-organized marketing push and has been since the very first teaser trailer. Disney isn't fucking around and the directors and writers appear to have hit all the right notes if these trailers and comments that have been made are any indicator.
Things that could hurt this film:
1.) It's bad. That's the first and foremost. If it can't be considered objectively better than the prequils, it will start fast and fade quickly.
2.) It is pirated. December is right around the time when companies are sending their disc copies to the academy for awards consideration. That usually means everything through December is leaked at the end of December or early in January which could cut deeply into repeat watches and international numbers. This wasn't as big an issue in 2009 for Avatar, and people wanted to see it in 3D anyway. Star Wars is not defined as an experience by 3D so not seeing it in 3D will not be a discouraging factor for pirates.
So that's it, IMO. It *could* approach Avatar numbers, but a lot of things have to break right for that to happen. Now...Age of Ultron on the other hand...LOL.
Finaika
Member
Just like Star Wars fans.
How is it crazy to think the sequel to one of the top 5 grossing films of all time would outdo star wars? Especially in the winter.
tearsintherain
Member
Star Wars The Force Awakens will break 4 billion in box office sales. JJ Abrams will transcend humanity and become our new God Emperor.
massivekettle
Member
I am not sure that Star Wars is as popular in Emerging Markets or even in Europe as it is in the USA. Basically, what I am getting at, is that its international box office gross might not be as good as say Furious 7 (who decimated all of its competition this year en route to a $1.17bn overseas gross, which is insane). Jurassic World only did $1.0bn and Avengers $940m.
If Star Wars can crack $1bn overseas, that would be a major win in my view.
NeoGold123
Member
In order, force awakens, force awakens, I would've said no until MGSV made mega bank so I'll leave it at I don't think so, and when I see Sora or Riku fighting Vader I'll probably pee a bit.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
Shit, every time I go to Wal-Mart, I think they might be right.
Dreams-Visions
Member
It's not crazy. I think it just lacks perspective and respect for how big the Star Wars franchise is and remains. On the strength of a trilogy 30 years old, we still had video games, comic books, animation, etc. all about Star Wars that have come regularly and met with financial success. We had film re-releases that played to sold out theaters and awful prequels that brought in truck loads of money.
Doubting the SW franchise is something one generally should avoid, IMO. But who knows? Maybe Age of Ultron will end up as the stronger film, box office. idk.
massivekettle
Member
Avatar was a popular movie but it was no doubt helped by currency movements. USD is about 20-25% stronger against other major currencies than it was in 2009-2010 when Avatar launched.
Ghostmaster
Member
I think people also underestimated the super hero fatigue that is slowly kicking in.
Less than stellar movies aren't going to cut it anymore (when it comes to making huge bucks). AOU played it too safe.
Less than stellar movies aren't going to cut it anymore (when it comes to making huge bucks). AOU played it too safe.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
All three prequels made more overseas than domestically. The highest grossing of the three (Phantom Menace) made $552 million. As massively as the world box office has grown in the last 15 years, I'm gonna say if the movie turns out good, it stands a pretty good chance at reaching that billion overseas.
While I'm personally feeling it, looking at the numbers there is absolutely nothing to support this theory. Captain America 2 did better than 1, Thor 2 did better than 1, Iron Man 3 did better than 2. Only Avengers did worse, and it still did beyond amazing despite not being very good. There is no proof of fatigue.
It is crazy, because people have been waiting for years for a new Star Wars film, and this film is banking hard on nostalgia with the inclusion of the old original main cast in the movie. Look how JW turned out box office wise it blew right past AoU with ease, nostalgia is pretty powerful thing.
Dufase19089
Banned
Considering Jurassic World already did better.
#NostalgiaWins
#NostalgiaWins
This line of thinking is out of touch as well, there's no proof there's super hero fatigue other than from the same people that keep saying there is.
Star wars is going to be big, it just depends on if it's a good movie which will enhance it's box office.
FTFY
pock3tmonster
Banned
I didn't enjoy Age of Ultron, I was left feeling disappointed when I came out of the cinema. I thought the writing was weak and the editing inconsistent. I enjoyed Ant-man far more. I don't know if The Force Awakens will make more money than Age of Ultron, but I strongly believe it will be a better film. As much as Disney need Star Wars to succeed, we as fans want it to succeed even more. I trust JJ, as a fan himself, to deliver an emotional film that captures the essence of Star Wars more so than the prequels did.
PeterLegend
Member
Disney owns both of them, let that sink in for a moment lol. They still winning
Nope.
Kind of silly that some of you are placing "bets" when Ultron is about to hit bluray and when we're just two months away from Star Wars. You people are kinda late to this game.
Anyway, we live in a world where a gigantic piece of turd like Jurassic World inexplicably grossed 1.6 million, cuz dinos. Right now the Star Wars hype machine is too big to ignore, it's obvious it's going to make ridiculous amounts of money, cuz Star Wars. Seems people want movies that reminds them of those old movies they once liked, and Abrams has tailor-made this shit for them.
Anyway, we live in a world where a gigantic piece of turd like Jurassic World inexplicably grossed 1.6 million, cuz dinos. Right now the Star Wars hype machine is too big to ignore, it's obvious it's going to make ridiculous amounts of money, cuz Star Wars. Seems people want movies that reminds them of those old movies they once liked, and Abrams has tailor-made this shit for them.
Its not silly--people are also guessing how it will do versus Avatar, which is already out on bluray.
Ghostmaster
Member
I did say slowly and I think AOU is ample proof of that.
It's not even just about the money, the hype of AoU evaporated very quickly after the release unlike the first Avengers.
I don't think that they can release a movie of Thor 2 quality anymore and expect it to rake in huge profits. The fact that they pushed Thor 3 so far back means that even they are aware of this.
Although Spidey is a huge get for them. He has a chance to freshen up the whole avenger's affair if he is good.
It's not crazy to think the sequel third highest gross film at the beginning of the year would be bigger than star wars.
This is such a stupid argument.
Hero_of_the_Day
Member
One thing cannot be proof of a trend. What if Civil War does better than Winter Soldier? Will that be proof that super-hero movies are back in?
Here's a not-at-all bold prediction: Batman V Superman and Captain America 3 will be two of the biggest movies of the summer. Also, both will make more than their predecessors.
Poimandres
Member
This thread is very funny in retrospect. I can see why people might have though AOU would take it, but by now it is blatanly obvious that Star Wars is going to demolish it with ease.
Also, almost no one saw Jurassic World coming, but here we are.
When the dust settles, I think Star Wars will be second only to Avatar (by a bit of a margin mind you). I don't even know what it would take to topple Avatar!
Also, almost no one saw Jurassic World coming, but here we are.
When the dust settles, I think Star Wars will be second only to Avatar (by a bit of a margin mind you). I don't even know what it would take to topple Avatar!
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