• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2011: Of Weiners, Boehners, Santorum, and Teabags

Status
Not open for further replies.
RustyNails said:
New things I'm hearing is that if Obama uses 14th, the confidence in US economy will still be impacted. Gosh, this is so disorienting.

That idea's been around for a while. i.e. what happens if there's a lawsuit? Is there an injunction. The possibility of that would make the whole thing a non-starter.
 
RustyNails said:
New things I'm hearing is that if Obama uses 14th, the confidence in US economy will still be impacted. Gosh, this is so disorienting.
Would you buy bonds that could be invalidated by Supreme Court decision or whatever? Even if there was no 14th Amendment option in place and Obama claimed the ability to raise the debt ceiling unilaterally in his capacity as Protector of the Realm, what matters ultimately is whether buyers accept bonds issued after Aug. 2 as legitimate.
 

gkryhewy

Member
What the shit? Boehner was forced to add the Balanced Budget amendment to his bill?

Man, we really are looking to be heading toward default. My faith that the right's Corporate Masters would bring them into line has been sorely shaken.
 
Balkin says the 14 amendment is already being invoked

Obama is already invoking the 14th Amendment

Some Democrats in Congress, including Steny Hoyer, have called for President Barack Obama to invoke the 14th Amendment to resolve the debt ceiling crisis.

What they don't realize is that Obama has already invoked it in effect. Despite his statement that his lawyers told him it wasn't a "winning argument."

What?

Obama has already told bond holders that there will be no default on bonds. He plans to use existing revenues to pay off interest on the debt and other vested obligations. This is required by section 4 of the Fourteenth Amendment. Whatever he says in public, his lawyers have almost certainly told him something like that.

But that means less money for other government services, including social safety net programs like Medicare.


So we'll see a partial government shutdown once the government runs out of other options.

This in turn will place enormous pressure on Congress to raise the debt ceiling, which it should have done in the first place.

By requiring a priority rule for payment of bondholders, Section 4 of the 14th Amendment forces the President's hand, which leads to a partial government shutdown, which leads to a political resolution of the crisis.

What if Congress still won't budge after months of government shutdown? Even then, Obama has to wait until the markets threaten to implode and the validity of the public debt is put into question. Then Section 4 says comes into play again, and, in that extraordinary set of circumstances, would require him to act to prevent a meltdown.

But we won't get there. Section 4 already guarantees that. And Obama knows it. No matter what he says in public.
http://balkin.blogspot.com/2011/07/obama-is-already-invoking-14th.html
 
What's funny is that even with the clusterf*ck in the House, Republicans still would have won at the end of the day since they're going to get a ton of cuts without any new taxes.

Dems bargained away the "balanced" approach just to have it extended through 2012.

This whole thing is ugly.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
gkryhewy said:
What the shit? Boehner was forced to add the Balanced Budget amendment to his bill?

Man, we really are looking to be heading toward default. My faith that the right's Corporate Masters would bring them into line has been sorely shaken.

Yeah, it's quite clear that the Tea Party at this junction is more important to Boehner then passing a bill that has a chance of passing the senate.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
Obama Hits Lowest Approval Ever In Gallup Poll
Kyle Leighton | July 29, 2011, 2:15PM


obama-chair-hands-cropped-proto-custom_2.jpg




The debtpocaplypse has completely enveloped Washington, and the effects are now seeping out of town, bringing down the national approval ratings of political leaders. Even President Obama, who had retained fairly strong numbers in spite of legislative clashes and a difficult economy, is starting to reach new lows. Obama has hit 40% approval in the Gallup tracking poll, for the first time in his presidency.

Other polling has shown the public's frustrations, with a few recent surveys showing that the number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track has been increasing as Washington debates a debt ceiling solution. The TPM Poll Average of the question shows only 22.5% think we are on the right track, with 69.5% who feel we are on the wrong one, very similar to the results seen at the end of 2008.


Another Gallup poll showed that the President is actually faring better than others involved in the debt debate: compared with Obama's 41% approval on handling the negotiations, House Speaker John Boehner registered a 31% approval on the debt talks and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid only got 23%. But it's clear that has the partisan back and forth continues, the messy lawmaking process provides a general drag on the leaders in Washington.

#####################

Well the GOP plan of seek and destroy is completely working so far. All they have to do is keep working hard for 6 more months of blowing up the economy and they will win back the Presidency.

Congrats GOP you are performing well.
 

Averon

Member
mckmas8808 said:
Obama Hits Lowest Approval Ever In Gallup Poll
Kyle Leighton | July 29, 2011, 2:15PM



Well the GOP plan of seek and destroy is completely working so far. All they have to do is keep working hard for 6 more months of blowing up the economy and they will win back the Presidency.

To be far, everyone in Washington is getting hammered with this. The difference being that the Tea-Party are gladly risking their seats in 2012 if it gets Obama out of the WH. I would not be surprised if the House and WH flip in 2012. Though I still think Obama will ultimately win. It will be much, much closer than in 2008, though.
 

Diablos

Member
Obama's fucked. This whole ordeal was orchestrated to nearly ensure his defeat. It's going to be really hard for him to get re-elected and now we're well on our way to having a group of "conservative" radicals in the WH.
 

Neo C.

Member
gkryhewy said:
Man, we really are looking to be heading toward default. My faith that the right's Corporate Masters would bring them into line has been sorely shaken.
I get the feeling that all the corporate elitists who supported the GOP and the Tea Partiers last year miscalculated the whole situation. It's like opening the Pandora's Box.
 

gcubed

Member
Diablos said:
Obama's fucked. This whole ordeal was orchestrated to nearly ensure his defeat. It's going to be really hard for him to get re-elected and now we're well on our way to having a group of "conservative" radicals in the WH.

If it gets raised past 2012 no one will remember this come next month.
 

Averon

Member
Diablos said:
Obama's fucked. This whole ordeal was orchestrated to nearly ensure his defeat. It's going to be really hard for him to get re-elected and now we're well on our way to having a group of "conservative" radicals in the WH.

I doubt the "establishment" GOP foresaw, much less planned, this. If Boehner had his way, he'd accepted Obama's first offer.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Diablos said:
Obama's fucked. This whole ordeal was orchestrated to nearly ensure his defeat. It's going to be really hard for him to get re-elected and now we're well on our way to having a group of "conservative" radicals in the WH.

What's so radical about Mitt Romney?
 

Diablos

Member
ToxicAdam said:
What's so radical about Mitt Romney?
Nothing, but he won't stand a chance against someone like Perry and dare I say Bachmann if she is lucky enough to get the nom (and anything's possible if we're faced with a D rating and skyrocketing interest rates).

Plus, Romney would cave anyway if he really wanted it. He can't be Massachusetts Romney, no way.

I doubt the "establishment" GOP foresaw, much less planned, this. If Boehner had his way, he'd accepted Obama's first offer.
No kidding, but they won't mind either. A group of teatards are holding the country and world's economy hostage so they can further decrease the President's chances of getting re-elected.
 
Averon said:
I doubt the "establishment" GOP foresaw, much less planned, this. If Boehner had his way, he'd accepted Obama's first offer.
Would you consider Mitch McConnell to be an "establishment" Republican? Right when this new congress started he stated that the Republican party's #1 priority was to ensure that Barack Obama would be a single-term president. Every single thing they have done has been in pursuit of this goal.
 
Averon said:
Romney won't beat Perry for the nom.

Agreed. Both can and will beat Obama though. It's clear the economy is imploding and Obama can't do anything to stop it. The GOP would gladly trade the house for the White House.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Diablos said:
Nothing, but he won't stand a chance against someone like Perry and dare I say Bachmann if she is lucky enough to get the nom (and anything's possible if we're faced with a D rating and skyrocketing interest rates).

I give Perry about a 30% chance if he runs and Bachmann 0.
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Diablos said:
30% chance of the nom or Presidency?

Who's the frontrunner in your eyes?


I made an avatar bet with Gruco about 3 months ago that Romney wins the nomination. It won't even be close. Perry has thrown a wrench into my certainty, because I don't know anything about the guy.
 
PhoenixDark said:
Agreed. Both can and will beat Obama though. It's clear the economy is imploding and Obama can't do anything to stop it. The GOP would gladly trade the house for the White House.
Ugh, haha. I kind of agree with you but at the same time, the mainstream media is waking up to the ridiculous intransigence of the House GOP. Another year of absolutely NOTHING being done gives Obama something slightly solid to argue against. Slightly.
 
mckmas8808 said:
Obama Hits Lowest Approval Ever In Gallup Poll
Kyle Leighton | July 29, 2011, 2:15PM


obama-chair-hands-cropped-proto-custom_2.jpg




The debtpocaplypse has completely enveloped Washington, and the effects are now seeping out of town, bringing down the national approval ratings of political leaders. Even President Obama, who had retained fairly strong numbers in spite of legislative clashes and a difficult economy, is starting to reach new lows. Obama has hit 40% approval in the Gallup tracking poll, for the first time in his presidency.

Other polling has shown the public's frustrations, with a few recent surveys showing that the number of Americans who think the country is on the wrong track has been increasing as Washington debates a debt ceiling solution. The TPM Poll Average of the question shows only 22.5% think we are on the right track, with 69.5% who feel we are on the wrong one, very similar to the results seen at the end of 2008.


Another Gallup poll showed that the President is actually faring better than others involved in the debt debate: compared with Obama's 41% approval on handling the negotiations, House Speaker John Boehner registered a 31% approval on the debt talks and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid only got 23%. But it's clear that has the partisan back and forth continues, the messy lawmaking process provides a general drag on the leaders in Washington.

#####################

Well the GOP plan of seek and destroy is completely working so far. All they have to do is keep working hard for 6 more months of blowing up the economy and they will win back the Presidency.

Congrats GOP you are performing well.
Once again america shows that its citizens are a bunch of short sighted morons. Ugh. Obama is hanging on by a thread
 

Averon

Member
polyh3dron said:
Would you consider Mitch McConnell to be an "establishment" Republican? Right when this new congress started he stated that the Republican party's #1 priority was to ensure that Barack Obama would be a single-term president. Every single thing they have done has been in pursuit of this goal.

Yeah, McConnell is one of the establishment GOPers. And, yes, the GOP has done everything in their power that they can get away with to gummy up the economic recovery to defeat Obama in 2012. Still, I don't think the establishment GOP planned to risk defaulting the US when their corporate overlords are so against it and Obama pretty much giving them nearly everything they wanted. The establishment never meant for the tea-party to have this much influence; they were suppose to be just a means to an end--which was getting them back into power.
 
ToxicAdam said:
I made an avatar bet with Gruco about 3 months ago that Romney wins the nomination. It won't even be close. Perry has thrown a wrench into my certainty, because I don't know anything about the guy.

He's much of the conservative establishment's last hope to oust Romney. They don't like or trust the guy or his religion, it's clear. As a southerner* Perry will have no problem sweeping the south, polls show him already leading Romney in Florida, he'll have a strong religious/activist grass roots, etc.

Perry stumbled out the gate this week by saying states should decide the gay marriage issue, but it's not like the social conservatives are going to abandon him for Romney. And like I've said, Bachman's support isn't real. Once he jumps in, she's finished. Especially with the tea party ruining everything.
 
TacticalFox88 said:
Once again america shows that its citizens are a bunch of short sighted morons. Ugh. Obama is hanging on by a thread
Obama deserves the blame he's getting. There's certainly more than enough to go around. He's conditioned the GOP to pull these shenanigans by caving to their demands time and time again before any real process for negotiation has even begun, and letting the far right define the terms even when it's to the detriment of the country as a whole. Guilt through complicity might as well be his motto.
 
If Republicans want a balanced budget amendment, then they better make it includes tax increases on the wealthy.

But we all know that won't happen. Republicans bitch, whine, and cry when they have to compromise.
 

mckmas8808

Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
PhoenixDark said:
He's much of the conservative establishment's last hope to oust Romney. They don't like or trust the guy or his religion, it's clear. As a southerner* Perry will have no problem sweeping the south, polls show him already leading Romney in Florida, he'll have a strong religious/activist grass roots, etc.

Perry stumbled out the gate this week by saying states should decide the gay marriage issue, but it's not like the social conservatives are going to abandon him for Romney. And like I've said, Bachman's support isn't real. Once he jumps in, she's finished. Especially with the tea party ruining everything.


So you think America would like to elect another governor from Texas 4 years after George Bush left office, rather voting for Obama again?
 

Diablos

Member
GrotesqueBeauty said:
Obama deserves the blame he's getting. There's certainly more than enough to go around. He's conditioned the GOP to pull these shenanigans by caving to their demands time and time again before any real process for negotiation has even begun, and letting the far right define the terms even when it's to the detriment of the country as a whole. Guilt through complicity might as well be his motto.
Given how the GOP has basically hijacked congressional procedure since day one of the Obama administration, that's not exactly the most fair thing to say.

Could Obama have a little more of a backbone in key instances? Sure, I can't act like he's prefect. There have been times I've been frustrated. But the GOP basically made a pact not to work with the man on day one, no matter what the circumstances, no matter what the consequences. Obama's willingness to "cave" or "compromise too much" is largely motivated by an opposition that won't move not even one inch past the line they drew in the sand in 2008. Throw a bunch of ultra-right wingers into the mix that took over the House and you essentially have a clusterfuck.

So while Obama's messaging often makes him look like a wimp, the fact is he knows as well as everyone else that the GOP simply cannot be reasoned with. Period. End of story. This isn't even the destructive GOP that Clinton had to deal with; this is unprecedented madness, literally. Even before they controlled the House, McConnell (who still does not control the Senate) made sure that their words weren't just made into empty rhetoric after Bush left by, in my view, abusing the rules of the Senate to manipulate the outcome of what otherwise would have been legislation that would've helped this country immensely.


mckmas8808 said:
So you think America would like to elect another governor from Texas 4 years after George Bush left office, rather voting for Obama again?
Why not? Perry is as establishment as it gets and he's aggressive.
 

gcubed

Member
Patrick Klepek said:
DOOM AND GLOOM with u guyz, as per usual.

I started pulling the pipes out of my house for the copper. Starting a fire with the soon to be worthless dollar bills so I can melt it down, need to trade my way to get to eznarks compound
 

Evlar

Banned
I don't know what 'establishment' means anymore if the guy who called for Secession Part 2 qualifies.

Or, perhaps I mean I'm uncertain which 'establishment' we're talking about.
 

Diablos

Member
Evlar said:
I don't know what 'establishment' means anymore if the guy who called for Secession Part 2 qualifies.

Or, perhaps I mean I'm uncertain which 'establishment' we're talking about.
The Tea Party certainly broadens the definition of what it means to be an establishment GOPer thanks to their antics.
 
Diablos said:
Given how the GOP has basically hijacked congressional procedure since day one of the Obama administration, that's not exactly the most fair thing to say.

Could Obama have a little more of a backbone in key instances? Sure, I can't act like he's prefect. There have been times I've been frustrated. But the GOP basically made a pact not to work with the man on day one, no matter what the circumstances, no matter what the consequences. Obama's willingness to "cave" or "compromise too much" is largely motivated by an opposition that won't move not even one inch past the line they drew in the sand in 2008. Throw a bunch of ultra-right wingers into the mix that took over the House and you essentially have a clusterfuck.

So while Obama's messaging often makes him look like a wimp, the fact is he knows as well as everyone else that the GOP simply cannot be reasoned with. Period. End of story. This isn't even the destructive GOP that Clinton had to deal with; this is unprecedented madness, literally. Even before they controlled the House, McConnell (who still does not control the Senate) made sure that their words weren't just made into empty rhetoric after Bush left by, in my view, abusing the rules of the Senate to manipulate the outcome of what otherwise would have been legislation that would've helped this country immensely.
Which is all basically the long way of saying he's not much of a leader. He fails to define the debate even when the opportunity presents itself. He's pretty much your standard spineless Democrat, except he's proven even more center right in practice than most. Coming into office he had a mandate and the potential to use the bully pulpit, and he totally blew it. I have no sympathy for his poor approval ratings.
 

Diablos

Member
GrotesqueBeauty said:
Which is all basically the long way of saying he's not much of a leader. He fails to define the debate even when the opportunity presents itself. He's pretty much your standard spineless Democrat, except he's proven even more center right in practice than most. Coming into office he had a mandate and the potential to use the bully pulpit, and he totally blew it. I have no sympathy for his poor approval ratings.
How can you define the debate in the age of 24/7 news networks, the Internet, and a growing amount of conservative bias? Even someone like Clinton would've struggled. Everything has changed. The instant you say anything it's put under a microscope. Obama can say all he wants and it really doesn't matter. He could have acted like a hardass instead of taking the more diplomatic approach to solving problems and the GOP still would have pulled out every dirty trick imaginable against him and his policies. It literally would not have mattered. I think he gets far too much criticism.
 

Chichikov

Member
gcubed said:
If it gets raised past 2012 no one will remember this come next month.
It's not about this mess, it's about the impact it will have.
If austerity during recession does to the economy what I think it does, he's fucked.
 
GrotesqueBeauty said:
Which is all basically the long way of saying he's not much of a leader. He fails to define the debate even when the opportunity presents itself. He's pretty much your standard spineless Democrat, except he's proven even more center right in practice than most. Coming into office he had a mandate and the potential to use the bully pulpit, and he totally blew it. I have no sympathy for his poor approval ratings.
I couldn't agree more.
 
mckmas8808 said:
So you think America would like to elect another governor from Texas 4 years after George Bush left office, rather voting for Obama again?

Him being from the same state as Bush is irrelevant. Him being from the state with one of the best economies in the country is quite an asset. His social views aren't in line with independents, but they've completely abandoned Obama anyway.

I think Obama's base of minorities and young people have pretty much abandoned hope in him, and 2012's election map will look more like 2004 than 2008. Barring some major GOP scandal or Bachman/Palin/Cain/etc winning the nomination, I cannot possibly imagine Obama winning. How can anyone argue otherwise when there is literally no end in sight for high unemployment, companies refuse to hire, and the GOP and Obama are about to sign a spending cut bill that will further harm the recovery.

Obama has to go down as one of the worst, most disappointing presidents. He clearly was no prepared for the job, or presiding over anything outside of a university.
 
I heard on CNN like an hour ago that the US economic crisis is similar to Japan in the 90´s. I am not sure if it´s true or exaggeration at this point. Japan´s crisis lasted for years. I hope this does not happen to the US and the world economy.
 

Evlar

Banned
Beam said:
I heard on CNN like an hour ago that the US economic crisis is similar to Japan in the 90´s. I am not sure if it´s true or exaggeration at this point.
This has been bandied about for the past several years. The similarities are striking.
 

gcubed

Member
Chichikov said:
It's not about this mess, it's about the impact it will have.
If austerity during recession does to the economy what I think it does, he's fucked.

Depends what gets passed, I wouldn't label Reids bill as austerity
 

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
PhoenixDark said:
To be fair, Obama has done a great job ensuring that himself too


Bullshit. People have been incredibly mad at him from the left, but given what he had to work with (an incompetent Democratic Senate leader and extremely spiteful Republican party), he has accomplished quite a bit.
 

Jonm1010

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Him being from the same state as Bush is irrelevant. Him being from the state with one of the best economies in the country is quite an asset. His social views aren't in line with independents, but they've completely abandoned Obama anyway.

I think Obama's base of minorities and young people have pretty much abandoned hope in him, and 2012's election map will look more like 2004 than 2008. Barring some major GOP scandal or Bachman/Palin/Cain/etc winning the nomination, I cannot possibly imagine Obama winning. How can anyone argue otherwise when there is literally no end in sight for high unemployment, companies refuse to hire, and the GOP and Obama are about to sign a spending cut bill that will further harm the recovery.

Obama has to go down as one of the worst, most disappointing presidents. He clearly was no prepared for the job, or presiding over anything outside of a university.

Independents have abandoned Obama insofar as Obama is running against "generic republican" in the polls. I think people underestimate how much numbers change once a face has been put to a candidate and talking points have been established.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom