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[apana]

Perry probably watched that debate and fell out his seat laughing. This will be a two man race on Saturday.

I'm excited about Perry getting in. He'll bring a new type of craziness to this circus. We already have so many different types!

 

[Clevinger]

Seems silly, since almost every religious woman over the age of 50 had it written in their wedding vows to 'honor and obey' their husband.

And pretty much none of them actually follow it like Bachmann says she has. I don't think the question was silly at all. Maybe in a congressional race or even a senate race, but that shit shouldn't fly when you're running for president.

 

[quaere]

How will Romney attack Perry when he actually has to fight?

I don't see any good angles other than business experience, which Perry can easily counter with the Texas job creator talking point. All the legitimate negatives against Perry have zero resonance with the Republican base, and aren't significant enough to get the unelectable label.

If Perry is as good of a campaigner as his reputation says he is, he easily wins the nomination.

 

[besada]

I think it was a dumb question, but mostly because she's almost certainly had it thrown at her before, and as we saw, she had no trouble answering it. I did find it interesting that they went after her religious beliefs while ignoring the two Mormons on the stage.

I don't see any good angles other than business experience, which Perry can easily counter with the Texas job creator talking point. All the legitimate negatives against Perry have zero resonance with the Republican base, and aren't significant enough to get the unelectable label.

If Perry is as good of a campaigner as his reputation says he is, he easily wins the nomination.

If Mitt goes for the business angle, Perry will point out that he helped run one of the hardest kind of businesses, a family farm, where no one was patting him on the back for shutting down plants and throwing good American workers out of jobs. He's just a poor country cotton farmer, ya know. And his wife? A nurse. He couldn't have made up a better life to run for office.

And, of course, he has actual military service to fall back on, which always makes the Republican base happy. He's not only a Captain in the air force, he flew C-130's in the middle east and Europe through '77.

He's going to go through Romney like an intestinal virus. I wonder how long it will take the major media to figure out he's never lost a race?

 

[Mike M]

I'd be pretty shocked if Perry doesn't get the nomination... Then again, McCain's campaign was DOA at this point last election cycle, and he won out in the end. Though I don't recall any of that cast of clowns having the same buzz as Perry...

 

[RustyNails]

How will Romney attack Perry when he actually has to fight?

I don't see any good angles other than business experience, which Perry can easily counter with the Texas job creator talking point. All the legitimate negatives against Perry have zero resonance with the Republican base, and aren't significant enough to get the unelectable label.

If Perry is as good of a campaigner as his reputation says he is, he easily wins the nomination.

But Romney has been waiting for his turn for a good while now. All signs point to him getting the nom. Perry will jump in, but I'm thinking it's only to raise his profile for 2016.

 

[Incognito]

I'd be pretty shocked if Perry doesn't get the nomination... .

agreed. perry is a political pro.. somewhat charismatic and has a record only conservatives could love.

 

[ToxicAdam]

I'd be pretty shocked if Perry doesn't get the nomination... Then again, McCain's campaign was DOA at this point last election cycle, and he won out in the end. Though I don't recall any of that cast of clowns having the same buzz as Perry...

Fred Thompson. But, he didn't have the political chops that Perry (apparently) has.

 

[Incognito]

But Romney has been waiting for his turn for a good while now. All signs point to him getting the nom. Perry will jump in, but I'm thinking it's only to raise his profile for 2016.

rick perry gets in races to win. this isn't hunstman we're talking about.

 

[speculawyer]

The "submissive" question for Bachmann was stupid. It wasn't relevant to anything and now she can play the sexism card that people are attacking her because she's a woman. If you're going to question her on her dumb statements at least pick something decent.

It was a nasty question but very valid one. She was wasn't attacked for being a woman, she was questioned because of her religious beliefs that she espouses. She is a hardcore evangelical and she is the one that said that she was submissive to her husband.

I think it was a lot like the old "Will John Kennedy take his orders from the Pope?" question. A valid question and one that Kennedy handled masterfully.

Full speech:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tyQ_GVz2Jqs

I think it was a dumb question, but mostly because she's almost certainly had it thrown at her before, and as we saw, she had no trouble answering it. I did find it interesting that they went after her religious beliefs while ignoring the two Mormons on the stage.

No trouble answering it? I found her answer to be a dodge. submissive = respect? No, they are very different words.

Why her and not Romney/Huntsman, perhaps Fox doesn't want her to do well.

 

[painey]

Blame that notorious American troll, Paine.

oit.

 

[besada]

But Romney has been waiting for his turn for a good while now. All signs point to him getting the nom. Perry will jump in, but I'm thinking it's only to raise his profile for 2016.

Kay Bailey waited for her turn at the Governorship, and the GOP directly promised it to her, and Perry gutted her like a fish.

No trouble answering it? I found her answer to be a dodge. submissive = respect? No, they are very different words.

Why her and not Romney/Huntsman, perhaps Fox doesn't want her to do well.

First, you aren't the audience for that answer. Second, it's going to turn out to be a favor for her, because it makes her look like a persecuted Christian. She'll make more money off that question than it ever costs her. The moment it was asked, Christian women all over the country reached for their checkbooks. It's a question Christian women get asked by mean feminists and elitist assholes.

 

[Mike M]

But Romney has been waiting for his turn for a good while now. All signs point to him getting the nom. Perry will jump in, but I'm thinking it's only to raise his profile for 2016.

What signs might these be (Seriously, I haven't been paying much attention to their polls)?

I don't doubt that he's the establishment choice around whom the wagons will be circled, I just wonder if it'll be enough to fend off Perry.

Maybe I'm wrong, but Perry just strikes me as absolutely ruthless. He doesn't appear as criminally ignorant as Bachman, and doesn't have Romney's laundry list of liabilities.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

I just found out that Ron Paul is 75. Jesus Christ. At that point, you'd be electing his vice president.

 

[besada]

By the way, it rained in Lubbock today. Prepare to hear that Perry's day of prayer worked.

 

[The Chosen One]

So our next President will either be Obama, Mittins, or Rev. Perry.

The problem for Mittins is that he has to win a southern state somehow early in the primary season. No way he wins South Carolina. He basically has to pray he can win New Hamp and then Florida, and then afterward let his money carry him through the remaining states. But there's no way Romney will grab more than 1-2 states in the South if Rick Perry runs just a barely competent campaign. Rick Perry is designed for the Bible Belt. Romney just has to pray he can still relevant until the primaries shift to the Mid-Western states.

Obama though will spank Rick Perry so hard in a general election, so this is all good news for him. But I want to see Rev. Perry in a national televised debate before I anoint him the Repug nominee.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

I just watched on CNN a person heckling Mitt Romney, and it was great.

 

[empty vessel]

He doesn't appear as criminally ignorant as Bachman ...

He is, if not more so. But he has the conservative virtue of being a man, so it's irrelevant.

 

[Black Republican]

So our next President will either be Obama, Mittins, or Rev. Perry.

The problem for Mittins is that he has to win a southern state somehow early in the primary season. No way he wins South Carolina. He basically has to pray he can win New Hamp and then Florida, and then afterward let his money carry him through the remaining states. But there's no way Romney will grab more than 1-2 states in the South if Rick Perry runs just a barely competent campaign. Rick Perry is designed for the Bible Belt. Romney just has to pray he can still relevant until the primaries shift to the Mid-Western states.

Obama though will spank Rick Perry so hard in a general election, so this is all good news for him. But I want to see Rev. Perry in a national televised debate before I anoint him the Repug nominee.

dont know if perry would have that much southern support, hes not even that fiscally responsible

 

[Mike M]

He is, if not more so. But he has the conservative virtue of being a man, so it's irrelevant.

I think it goes beyond mere sexism, I don't recall him going on about how he fought against raising the debt ceiling among other Bachman nuttiness.

A day of prayer for rain is close though....

 

[speculawyer]

So our next President will either be Obama, Mittins, or Rev. Perry.

The problem for Mittins is that he has to win a southern state somehow early in the primary season. No way he wins South Carolina. He basically has to pray he can win New Hamp and then Florida, and then afterward let his money carry him through the remaining states. But there's no way Romney will grab more than 1-2 states in the South if Rick Perry runs just a barely competent campaign. Rick Perry is designed for the Bible Belt. Romney just has to pray he can still relevant until the primaries shift to the Mid-Western states.

Obama though will spank Rick Perry so hard in a general election, so this is all good news for him. But I want to see Rev. Perry in a national televised debate before I anoint him the Repug nominee.

I just find it hard to believe that we may have a conservative right-wing evangelical Texas Republican cowboy governor presidential candidate a mere 4 years after Bush.

 

[besada]

dont know if perry would have that much southern support, hes not even that fiscally responsible

Perry's certainly going to do better in the south than the ex-governor of Massachusetts, who also just happens to be a Mormon.

 

[Diablos]

Wake me up in after election day in 2012, please:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-crawford/obamas-etch-a-sketch-map_b_925048.html

Shake it any given day and you can find a different and increasingly difficult path for President Obama's reelection chances on his Electoral College map. Still, it's not too much of a stretch to find glimmers of hope for him.

A new Gallup survey of state-by-state approval ratings shows that he probably holds a solid base of 211 Electoral College votes. That's well short of the necessary 270 but, while his opportunities for making up the difference are not exactly target rich, there are some.

The Base
There are enough states where Obama's approval is at 50 percent or better to assume a starting point of 211 votes. (See Gallup map below)

Battlegrounds
Six states with another 90 votes show that his approval, while below 50 percent, at least exceeds his disapproval rating: Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Georgia, Florida, and North Carolina. A sweep of those would give him a comfortable margin. But those last three Southern battlegrounds could be quite tough.

Wild Cards
Last time Obama won several states where his approval now trails his disapproval. If he can somehow reclaim the magic of 2008 this would be his next tier of opportunity. In the order of his best approval standings this category includes: New Mexico, Ohio, Nevada, Colorado, Indiana and New Hampshire (where just 40 percent approve).

Obama's greatest challenge in holding his map together is how a lousy economy roiling hard-hit Rust Belt and Midwestern states offers Republicans a chance to make inroads among large chunks of older and blue-collar white voters. (Hence, his bus trip through the region next week to talk about job creation.)

It's not a pretty map for the White House but, tricky and treacherous as his steps could be, there are a few paths to victory.

It just looks like more and more of an uphill battle with every passing month.

Go away, Rick Perry. If Obama is destined to lose I want him to lose to Romney.

Obama though will spank Rick Perry so hard in a general election, so this is all good news for him. But I want to see Rev. Perry in a national televised debate before I anoint him the Repug nominee.

Lawl. What? He would carry states like OH and FL with ease. I think PA is gonna be really close no matter what.

 

[Aaron Strife]

What what?

Obama will prob carry all Kerry states +NV,NM,CO,NC,VA. At least.

Maybe he'll lose New Hampshire to Romney.

Perry's a joke candidate and would make Texas competitive.

 

[SecretMoblin]

Just dropping by to say hello, and ask a question!

I've got a degree in Political Science and I'm one of those weird people who likes listening to arguments rather than getting into them, so I probably won't be posting much. But I've been scoping out the thread over the last few days and I'm interested to see the views of PoliGAF!

Sorry if this was already discussed when the census info was released, but what do you guys think about the impact of the new makeup of the Electoral College on 2012? I've actually been really surprised that the media hasn't picked up on it. Maybe they will once the election picks up steam, but there's been almost no attention paid to the redistribution of electoral votes. And nobody wants to talk about congressional redistricting, which could have a big impact on the margins in the House.

It's fun and easy to yell about the Tea Party or unions or the George Soros Fascist World SuperUnion Megacorporation or whatever, but process questions are important, too. :-/

 

[Karma Kramer]

Just dropping by to say hello, and ask a question!

I've got a degree in Political Science and I'm one of those weird people who likes listening to arguments rather than getting into them, so I probably won't be posting much. But I've been scoping out the thread over the last few days and I'm interested to see the views of PoliGAF!

Sorry if this was already discussed when the census info was released, but what do you guys think about the impact of the new makeup of the Electoral College on 2012? I've actually been really surprised that the media hasn't picked up on it. Maybe they will once the election picks up steam, but there's been almost no attention paid to the redistribution of electoral votes. And nobody wants to talk about congressional redistricting, which could have a big impact on the margins in the House.

It's fun and easy to yell about the Tea Party or unions or the George Soros Fascist World SuperUnion Megacorporation or whatever, but process questions are important, too. :-/

Pretty sure a popular vote makes more sense than electoral college nonsense, especially after the 2000 presidential election.

 

[scorcho]

someone, somewhere had to have captured Joe Scarborough's rant a few minutes ago about the irrelevancy of the Iowa straw poll and those who will vote towards Bachmann. i believe the choice line was that anyone with the temerity to vote for Bachmann is likely too stupid to even use a slurpy machine.

 

[Averon]

PA have always been fool's gold for the GOP in pres elections. 2012 won't be any different.

 

[otake]

So submission = respect?

Was slavery about respect then? This was a dumb answer but I guess I'm not her audience.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Lawl. What? He would carry states like OH and FL with ease. I think PA is gonna be really close no matter what.

He's got a lot of making up to do to win 'easily':

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_perry_vs_obama-2825.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_perry_vs_obama-2861.html

 

[DasRaven]

This picture will now serve as my answer to the question "Who doesn't want me to vote for them?

A 10:1 deal on cuts & revenue and you walk away. Elect one of these people and we're done.

 

[MrGame&Watch]

someone, somewhere had to have captured Joe Scarborough's rant a few minutes ago about the irrelevancy of the Iowa straw poll and those who will vote towards Bachmann. i believe the choice line was that anyone with the temerity to vote for Bachmann is likely too stupid to even use a slurpy machine.

Haha yeah I caught that. Repubs like his dad don't exist anymore unfortunately. It's the John birch society now...

 

[scorcho]

He's got a lot of making up to do to win 'easily':

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_perry_vs_obama-2825.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_perry_vs_obama-2861.html

deep down, some part of Diablos still believes McCain won in 2008 thanks in large part to his savvy VP choice.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

I just want to point out, for those of you needling me in the last couple of pages, that I wouldn't have put Huntsman's chances of winning the primary above, say, 10%. so fuck all y'all!

Honestly, though, I'd have been much more hesitant to endorse him at all if he's as lackluster a speaker as you guys have indicated. Alas. Is there archive footage of the debate? I want to see what I missed.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Alas. Is there archive footage of the debate? I want to see what I missed.

This guy has it broken up into 8 parts.

 

[Incognito]

can't believe people are fretting about perry. bring him on, i say. it seems his 'response' event managed to answer obama's prayers, too!

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...dismantling-social-security-and-medicare.html

Despite all the hoopla surrounding Perry’s candidacy, few people have asked yet what the Texas governor actually believes—and what sort of president he would be. Fortunately, I spent the better part of an hour talking to Perry about his political philosophy and policy prescriptions back in the fall, right before he released Fed Up!, his first book. At the time, Newsweek chose to print only a short excerpt from our interview; few readers knew who Perry was, or cared. But now that he’s running for president, it makes sense to publish a longer version of the conversation, which reveals a lot about Perry’s politics. (For the full transcript, click through.)

In the interview, Perry hints that he would do more to limit the power of the federal government—or at least attempt to do more—than any president since Calvin Coolidge. His argument is basically that we should dismantle most of the last 75 years of national policy and relinquish even Washington’s least controversial responsibilities to the states.

Perry believes, for example, that the national Social Security system, which he calls a “failure” that “we have been forced to accept for more than 70 years now,” should be scrapped and that each state should be allowed to create, or not create, its own pension system. “I would suggest a legitimate conversation about let[ting] the states keep their money and implement the programs,” he says.

Perry also includes Medicare in his list of programs “the states could substantially better operate,” suggesting that each governor should be “given the freedom from the federal government to come up with his own innovative ways [of] working with his legislature to deliver his own health-care innovations to his citizens.”

And Perry thinks TARP was a total mistake—along with all subsequent efforts to backstop or stimulate the economy. Instead, he prefers an entirely laissez-faire approach to job-destroying financial crises. "I think you allow the market to work its way through it," he says. "I don’t understand why the TARP bill exists. Let the processes find their way."

general election gold!

 

[Invisible_Insane]

This guy has it broken up into 8 parts.

Thanks.

Just started watching. Bachmann started shouting immediately. Good grief.

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

With this 'super committee' to cut the deficit even more, why can't we have a super committee on creating jobs?

 

[Averon]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/...rats-on-the-comeback-in-the-polls.php?ref=fpb

Congressional Democrats On The Comeback

Both polls showed Democrats taking the lead in the Generic Congressional Ballot, a metric showing who voters generally feel they want to control the House and Senate. Gallup consistently measures it, and Democrats held a healthy lead throughout 2007 to the end of 2009, when the GOP started making gains and eventually led. The Republican high water mark was around election time in 2010, but it didn't last very long: early into 2011 Democrats surpassed them again, the data shows, and have opened up a lead. The newest rating is 51% in favor of a Democratic candidate versus 44% for a Republican one.

Gallup also asked registered voters how a Tea Party endorsement would affect their likelihood of voting for a congressional candidate. The effect is nearly 2-to-1 negative, with 42% saying they would be less likely to vote for such a candidate versus 23% saying they would be more likely. About a third say it would make no difference or are unsure.

A PPP(D)/Daily Kos poll showed similar results in a national poll conducted from August 4th to the 7th. That poll showed a 47 - 40 break for Democrats, including a slight advantage with independent voters, 39 - 36.

 

[Vanillalite]

Amazing what can happen on the market with proper regulation. Now I'm not saying it won't go down later in the day (people tend to always try and take their profits on Friday afternoon!) Still the main headline on CNBC's website is lowest consumer sentiment numbers in 3 decades yet the market is up roughly 90 points.

Amazing what can happen when you push a short term ban on short selling financials.

 

[Invisible_Insane]

Amazing what can happen on the market with proper regulation. Now I'm not saying it won't go down later in the day (people tend to always try and take their profits on Friday afternoon!) Still the main headline on CNBC's website is lowest consumer sentiment numbers in 3 decades yet the market is up roughly 90 points.

Amazing what can happen when you push a short term ban on short selling financials.

"People are shorting this stock! It's going to go down! Let's sell it!"
"This stock is going down! Let's short it!"
markets are rational guys, we swear

 

[ToxicAdam]

The confidence fairy is taking it in the pooper. Keep in mind this was taken before the S&P downgrade.

Confidence among U.S. consumers plunged in August to the lowest level since May 1980, adding to concern that weak employment gains and volatility in the stock market will prompt households to retrench.

The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment slumped to 54.9 from 63.7 the prior month. The gauge was projected to decline to 62, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-than-expected-to-54-9-in-michigan-index.html

Of course the stock market is up!

 

[Vanillalite]

The confidence fairy is taking it in the pooper. Keep in mind this was taken before the S&P downgrade.



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...-than-expected-to-54-9-in-michigan-index.html

Of course the stock market is up!

EU countries banning together to try and stop short selling IMO was a big boost at least in the short term. This especially goes because everyone can't swoop in and short sell all the financials after all the news this week specifically about France!

NYTimes

Stocks Open Higher in U.S.; Europe Up
By JULIA WERDIGIER and BETTINA WASSENER
Published: August 11, 2011

Stocks in the United States rose on Friday, following markets in Europe, which were helped by the imposition of temporary bans on negative bets against financial stocks in four countries...

Bans on so-called short-selling of bank shares took effect in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium Friday, giving some relief to pressured bank shares. France, Italy and Spain said the bans would be in effect for 15 days, while Belgium did not set an expiration date. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index was up 2.8 percent in afternoon trading...

 

[cartoon_soldier]

This picture will now serve as my answer to the question "Who doesn't want me to vote for them?

A 10:1 deal on cuts & revenue and you walk away. Elect one of these people and we're done.

Why would America vote for candidates who can't accept such a deal? And they will, even if Obama wins, 47-49% of the people will vote for such a candidate.

 

[Mortrialus]

Okay, Megyn Kelly's usually a dullard, but this was a really awesome segment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlzAbLC1Vj8

And Jon Stewart tears apart her hypocrisy.

 

[HamPster PamPster]

So submission = respect?

Was slavery about respect then?

Well duh!

I caught part of this interview earlier in the week including this part:

http://www.npr.org/2011/08/09/139084313/the-books-and-beliefs-shaping-michele-bachmann

On Bachmann's selection of a Robert E. Lee biography by J. Steven Wilkins as a book recommendation during her state Senate campaign

"For a number of years, Michele Bachmann's personal website had a list of books she recommended people read. It was called 'Michelle's must-read list.' I was looking over the list and noticed this biography of Lee by Wilkins. [I had] never heard of Wilkins and started looking at who he was. And frankly couldn't believe that she was recommending this book."

"Wilkins has combined a Christian conservatism with neo-confederate views and developed what is known as the theological war thesis. This is an idea that says the best way to understand the Civil War is to see it in religious terms, and [that] the South was an Orthodox Christian nation attacked by the godless North and that what was really lost after the Civil War was one of the pinnacles of Christian society. This insane view of the Civil War has been successfully injected into some of the Christian home-schooling movement curriculums with the help of [Wilkins]. My guess is this is how she encountered the guy at some point. ... She recommended this book on her website for a number of years. It is an objectively pro-slavery book and one of the most startling things I learned about her in this piece."

 

[Jason's Ultimatum]

And Jon Stewart tears apart her hypocrisy.

Yup. It was brutal.

 

[ThisWreckage]

So our next President will either be Obama, Mittins, or Rev. Perry.

The problem for Mittins is that he has to win a southern state somehow early in the primary season. No way he wins South Carolina. He basically has to pray he can win New Hamp and then Florida, and then afterward let his money carry him through the remaining states. But there's no way Romney will grab more than 1-2 states in the South if Rick Perry runs just a barely competent campaign. Rick Perry is designed for the Bible Belt. Romney just has to pray he can still relevant until the primaries shift to the Mid-Western states.

Obama though will spank Rick Perry so hard in a general election, so this is all good news for him. But I want to see Rev. Perry in a national televised debate before I anoint him the Repug nominee.

I honestly have no idea who would win between Romney and Perry.

 

[Zero Hero]

I just watched on CNN a person heckling Mitt Romney, and it was great.

That isn't a heckler. It's a liberal terrorist/activist!

 

[Dr. Pangloss]

I honestly have no idea who would win between Romney and Perry.

Doesn't matter. The battle is between Bachmann and Perry for Iowa. Romney has New Hampshire on lock. Bachmann needs to come out swinging with some of the big government initiatives Perry supported. The purchase of all that land for a new Texas highway system that went no where. Also, the mandating that all girls get the HPV vaccine; this one will be funny the way it plays with the social conservatives and sex.

Iowa is going to be interesting. The right have always complain they were never conservative enough. Bush was too liberal. McCain was too liberal. Now they have their chance to go deeper with the selection of Bachmann. Personally, I wasn't sold on Obama till the Jefferson/Jackson dinner when he gave his speech. This was like a week before the caucuses. It's still up in the air.