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PoliGAF 2012 Community Thread |OT2| This thread title is now under military control

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Not the only, but a big one. Obama has several key polling advantages. Lots of similarities between 84 and now in terms of polling; both elections had candidates locked, even-steven, two months prior to the election. With the economy not being the supreme issue, likeability gains a greater significance, just like other "gut-check" polls as Chuck Todd mentioned on Sunday. This is a result of Romney camp failures, but I don't think likeability isn't important here.

The economy was actually good in 1984; Obama doesn't have that advantage. Romney's likability won't matter if people continue believing the country is on the wrong track, continue trusting him more on the economy, etc
 

codhand

Member
The economy was actually good in 1984

Yeah I'm not implying economy was the issue in 1984, but on "Issues" Mondale and Reagan were locked as you can see in the pic I posted. We can do an experiment; two lines of Republican voters, one line containing people who like Romney, and the other, people who hate Obama, we know which would be the longer, and we know that's not how to win elections, regardless of "wrong-track" "are you better off than 4 years ago" etc. Likeability would not matter, or matter much less if Romney could stay on message worth a shit.

Also part of the reason the economy was doing better in 84, was because Reagan raised taxes.
 
Definitely. Our church maintained a generous benevolence fund and food pantry. And they participated in Habitat for Humanity. I now disfavor religion on the whole, but I'll not deny the positive attributes of some religious organizations.

Yeah, but what percent of their money was spent on helping people?

Churches are generally the easiest way for people to give to a local charity that they can see making a difference.

Where the hell do people live that there is no local foodbank? Where there is no local Red Cross?

If Christians stopped making tithes and offerings to churches and gave them straight to foodbanks, would we even NEED food stamps? Would love to see the math on that.
 

AlteredBeast

Fork 'em, Sparky!
Yeah, but what percent of their money was spent on helping people?



Where the hell do people live that there is no local foodbank? Where there is no local Red Cross?

If Christians stopped making tithes and offerings to churches and gave them straight to foodbanks, would we even NEED food stamps? Would love to see the math on that.

tithes are different than traditional donations, they are done to keep the church in business.
 
Religious charities are different than a straight donation to a church, where there's lots of expenses that don't fall under their "mission".

I was looking at my Church's budget a couple days ago (it was in the bulletin on Sunday) and only about 10% actually goes to missions & charities.

Yep. Unfortunately truth for the bulk of them. Then you begin to look at those "missions".. -sigh-.

If people are constantly told something by the media, they'll believe it. Jay-Z is the greatest rapper, Avatar is a good movie, Paul Ryan is the greatest political mind of our time, etc

Hahaha. Quit putting up my Bat Signal.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
If Christians stopped making tithes and offerings to churches and gave them straight to foodbanks, would we even NEED food stamps? Would love to see the math on that.

I think the math says yes we would, although I don't have any articles or studies bookmarked or anything. Basically that charity could never feasibly replace foodstamps. Maybe somebody else knows more about that...
 
I actually didn't know this. Do you have more specifics?

Looks like he's right. It's been modified--although the cat is out of the bag as far as the end game is concerned--to basically use the ACA exchange mechanism (with the public option being Medicare). Still a ridiculously bad idea and an attack against American citizens. Apparently, Oregon Senator Wyden once joined with Ryan in a plan close to the modified one that passed the House. If I were in Oregon, that would be enough for me not to vote for him, ever.
 

Jackson50

Member
How is likeability superficial, but "performing respectably" not? The fact is Reagan won in 84 on likeability and that was with a 16 point margin over his opponent.

DJ6vb.png
Likability is immaterial one's performance as president, whereas "performing respectably" is a substantive evaluation of performance. Perhaps superficial was a misnomer, though. Likability could be important to some voters. Moreover, that's not a fact. Reagan won primarily on a strong economy. And Reagan's advantage depends on the measure. The NES data is a more thorough measurement of the concept.
Yeah, but what percent of their money was spent on helping people?
I don't doubt it's not the most cost effective method to help the poor. Nevertheless, they still made a positive contribution.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
This charity discussion is interesting because nobody has mentioned that the places where giving is the highest correlates most strongly with widespread poverty, while it's the same exact people that don't believe a social safety net is required.
 

codhand

Member
Moreover, that's not a fact. Reagan won primarily on a strong economy. And Reagan's advantage depends on the measure.

I should not have said "fact" but instead "a large part" of Reagan's victory. No one really disputes this, they just add in other factors. Likeability is more like a leading indicator to me, especially when that advantage is so pronounced.
 
This charity discussion is interesting because nobody has mentioned that the places where giving is the highest correlates most strongly with widespread poverty, while it's the same exact people that don't believe a social safety net is required.

Charity is what happens when societies are dysfunctional. Functional societies don't require much in the way of charity. I, personally, do not find charitable giving admirable. I find people who are working to create societies that don't require charity admirable.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Charity is what happens when societies are dysfunctional. Functional societies don't require much in the way of charity. I, personally, do not find charitable giving admirable. I find people who are working to create societies that don't require charity admirable.

I'm with this guy.


But I still put some coins in the red bucket around Christmas.
 
I just don't even



Mitt Romney told a group of donors on Thursday night that "big business is doing fine in many places," due to its ability to better deal with regulations and because large companies can utilize "low tax havens around the world."

"We've got to make it easier for small businesses," Romney said to a group of 300 at the Lafayette Club in this Minneapolis suburb. "Big business is doing fine in many places - they get the loans they need, they can deal with all the regulation. They know how to find ways to get through the tax code, save money by putting various things in the places where there are low tax havens around the world for their businesses."

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57499636-503544/romney-big-business-is-doing-fine/



Stop talking about abortion! Lets talk about offshore tax havens, thats what the common man wants to hear! Lets talk about how Obamas economy is great for business!
 

eznark

Banned
Charity is what happens when societies are dysfunctional. Functional societies don't require much in the way of charity. I, personally, do not find charitable giving admirable. I find people who are working to create societies that don't require charity admirable.

You like charity, you just want the confiscation and distribution centralized. Welfare is just intermediated charity.
 

codhand

Member
I hear the conservative charity meme a lot, Beck is especially guilty, "if more people would just give from their pockets we wouldn't need ___,___,___"
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
You like charity, you just want the confiscation and distribution centralized. Welfare is just intermediated charity.

Sometimes it's useful if a charity doesn't discriminate based on things, like race, creed, color, religion, gender, age, orientation, stuff like that. But hey, crazy liberalist leftist socialism speaking here.
 

Allard

Member
I really hope it was taken out of context and Romney is standing up for Obama.

If not...

Fucking scumbag, hope you tank this election you unelectable piece of garbage.

I really don't see how it could be anything but a dog whistle to the fringes of his party. He might not think it matters that much but probably the same way he didn't think much about saying "Who let the dogs out" to a bunch of african american children. He has absolutely zero sensitivity for the racial tension that is in the air over politics.
 

PantherLotus

Professional Schmuck
Which raises the obvious question: would you find charitable giving to someone working to create a society that didn't require charity admirable? ;)

I'm pretty sure we just found the name of the official PoliGAF Charity:

The PoliGAF Charity Of Creating Societies That Don't Need Charities And Make Nerds Read Good Charity
 

ToxicAdam

Member
Wow, someone is still spiraling out.

--- // ---

** WARNING: MALICIOUS 'DRIVE-BY INFODUMP' INCOMING **




“Sales of newly built homes rose briskly in July, and inventory fell to the lowest level on record, suggesting the housing market is showing continued signs of recovery and that builders may need to ramp up construction in the coming months,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The Census Bureau said Thursday builders sold a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 372,000 homes in July, up 26% from the same month last year. Inventory of new homes available for sale fell to 142,000 units, the lowest level recorded since the government started tracking the figure in 1963… A separate report Thursday by the Federal Housing Finance Administration, which regulates mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, showed prices of previously owned homes rose 1.8% in the second quarter from the first—the biggest quarterly jump in more than six years.”
 

Jackson50

Member
I should not have said "fact" but instead "a large part" of Reagan's victory. No one really disputes this, they just add in other factors. Likeability is more like a leading indicator to me, especially when that advantage is so pronounced.
Perhaps this is a unique cycle where personal evaluations are integral to the outcome. We've had too few elections to make a solid determination. I'll be interested to see the NES data when it's released.

I could see that. Perhaps that accounts for the disparity between the NES and data from other polling firms.
TA already has a toadie.
Why the vendetta?
 

codhand

Member
“Sales of newly built homes rose briskly in July, and inventory fell to the lowest level on record, suggesting the housing market is showing continued signs of recovery and that builders may need to ramp up construction in the coming months,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Why is WSJ going off message?


From reading that GiveWell link it seems like you should basically write a check to third world areas of Africa, because the other 99% of charities are all bunk.
 

demon

I don't mean to alarm you but you have dogs on your face
Ok, point is you like charity.
Pretty sure he said he doesn't. Charity functions differently from welfare. Looks like he prefers welfare. You're just dicking around with semantics, man.
 

Arde5643

Member
Seriously guys, nothing?

Well, I got a big ass face palm reading that line if that helps.


I think I get why Willard is so hated, he's the guy who always says the obvious like it's something fascinating to the embarrassment of his peers and then forcibly laughs at his own unfunny joke.
Dude's lucky he's born filthy rich since he'll be the guy everyone gives a wedgie if he wasn't.
 
This charity discussion is interesting because nobody has mentioned that the places where giving is the highest correlates most strongly with widespread poverty, while it's the same exact people that don't believe a social safety net is required.
This mirrors my thoughts on the issue.
 
Pretty sure he said he doesn't. Charity functions differently from welfare. Looks like he prefers welfare. You're just dicking around with semantics, man.

I don't think EV is a particularly big fan of welfare, either, in the sense that he would prefer a form of welfare that existed to more equitably distribute money among the populace, rather than merely throwing out crumbs to the poorest individuals while those in the middle class continue to get fucked regularly.

Myself, I think charitable giving can be admirable, but at the same time, I can't help but feel that a charity will always be a less efficient use of money than, say, investing it in research, or new technologies, or anything that might contribute to society and the species in a long-term sense. Charity is always and necessarily a short-term solution.
 
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