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[Aaron Strife]

This is a game changer. Voters don't know Romney yet, and I'd expect his numbers to improve in the run up to the convention and afterwards

Because now you can delude yourself into believing Romney has a chance? okay

Yeah, Obama seems to be fucked. It looks like the trend from 2010 is holding firm. "Obama will get re-elected because he's up just enough in most of the swing states" is the new "Dems will hold the House."

Do you not remember the last midterm elections?
All of these polls in swing states don't mean shit if Obama can't pull away at >50%.
VA looks good today but you can expect polls to tighten as the election gets closer. It's still summer. I don't expect it to stay at or above 50 from now until the 7th of Nov.

We're drowning in faux optimism. I have the same gut feeling that I did in 2010 despite all the signs that show promising news for Democrats.

I think it's funny how you say "we're drowning in faux optimism" yet all you ever do is predict doomsday over every little thing, assuming "we" includes you.

This race has been stable since the beginning of the year (with Obama maintaining a lead between 3 and 4 points and his approval break-even or slightly positive, and swing state polls good) and the way you're talking is like Obama's down by 5.

Has the eurozone exploded? Was healthcare overturned? Did the economy start shedding jobs? None of those things happened, now stop worrying.

 

[ToxicAdam]

3 trillion? I thought it was 1 trillion?

Maybe my info is old or they have changed the plan. I'm going off this infographic from 2010.

 

[Jackson50]

Pretty much any time anyone brings up polls anyone who comments about the results seems to be going through a similar process for their candidate of choice.

Not everyone engages in such flagrant inanity.

This is partially the reason why Romney isn't out blasting the President at this point in the campaign - it will have no momentum come November. Yes, they will give out the standard talking points, but at this point they are just playing a rope-a-dope - let Obama continue with the Bain attacks, let him expend his capital on gay marriage and his Obamacare tax win to deflect from horrible jobs reports and simply tread water.

It's summer, people's minds are not on the election in any engaged way - it's background noise. Romney is just biding his time and will start throwing haymakers in September and October when they fully tap into the war chest.



Honestly, you're right. The American electorate, for the most part, is disengaged and doesn't care that much about political races.

Hehehe. The foolish Democrats have no idea of what's coming down the pike.

 

[Tim-E]

Can't wait for that haymaker multi-million dollar ad campaign to come out beating Obama down with information everyone already knows!

 

[BotoxAgent]

Remember Dick Morris' electoral map in 2008? LOL!!!

 

[Dude Abides]

Maybe the whitey tape will finally come out.

 

[Tim-E]

Remember Dick Morris' electoral map in 2008? LOL!!!

LOL

Oh my god @ his swing states. Political genius.

Remember when Louisiana, South Carolina, and Georgia were the only swing states in the 2008 election? Remember when West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, and Missouri voted for Obama?

This proves that Dick Morris is the one stop source for for information claiming polls about Presidential elections are wrong.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

This is a game changer. Voters don't know Romney yet, and I'd expect his numbers to improve in the run up to the convention and afterwards

Problem for him is that if the job numbers are ever good again, it will be come these final months.

Even McCain made up awesome ground against Obama in 2008 when it comes to Gallup daily tracking.

 

[eznark]

Problem for him is that if the job numbers are ever good again, it will be come these final months.

Sorry but that isn't happening.

 

[Aaron Strife]

LOL

Oh my god @ his swing states. Political genius.

Remember when Louisiana, South Carolina, and Georgia were the only swing states in the 2008 election? Remember when West Virginia, Tennessee, Arkansas, Arizona, and Missouri voted for Obama?

In fairness, Missouri was decided by less than a point. But strongly Obama is a joke.

Sorry but that isn't happening.

If I were to bet on good jobs reports throughout the rest of the campaign, I'd say they would more likely come in September and October than July and August. I don't think he's saying Sept and Oct WILL be good months, but they'd be much more likely to and they would come at the least opportune time for Romney.

 

[The Librarian]

Weather.

As hundreds of local temperature records have been smashed from Atlanta to Colorado Springs, there’s been plenty of discussion about whether the recent molten weather can be “blamed” on global warming. Isn’t it at least possible this heat wave is just a random outburst? Or are we truly seeing the effects of all that carbon dioxide humans have put into the atmosphere?

Perhaps a chart can help. The National Climactic Data Center has just released its “State of the Climate” report for June 2012. The last 12 months in the mainland United States, it notes, were the warmest on record. What’s notable, however, is that every single one of the last 13 months were in the top third for their historical distribution (i.e., April 2012 was in the top third for warmest Aprils, etc).

“The odds of this occurring randomly,” notes NCDC, “is 1 in 1,594,323.”

 

[Oblivion]

Just gonna drop this here:

http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entries/romney-calls-obama-outsourcer-in-chief

 

[eznark]

^ Is this how we're doing "i read this late and want to post it but I know I am probably three hours late" now?

If I were to bet on good jobs reports throughout the rest of the campaign, I'd say they would more likely come in September and October than July and August. I don't think he's saying Sept and Oct WILL be good months, but they'd be much more likely to and they would come at the least opportune time for Romney.

A good jobs report will be one that breaks even. There is no massive job monsoon brewing just off the coast.

 

[Oblivion]

Also, too:

President Obama wants @MittRomney to hand over even more past tax returns- he should when @BarackObama reveals his college applications.

Guess which non-Kosmo said that.

 

[Tim-E]

Weather.

The planet warms all the time. Global warming happened before we arrived and it wasn't our fault then, right? It's not our fault now, either. To think that our puny little human cars can warm the planet is silly. So what if the oceans get a few degrees warmer? I like it when the water isn't too cold, anyway. Pollution isn't that bad; just look at all the jobs it provides!

Did I hit everything?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Also, too:



Guess which non-Kosmo said that.

Romney's trump card.

 

[Oblivion]

^ Is this how we're doing "i read this late and want to post it but I know I am probably three hours late" now?

I guess so.

 

[Tim-E]

Barack Obama better get the registrar's office to send an OFFICIAL transcript to every news outlet in America. Even if he releases his "college transcripts" who's to say they aren't forged like his birth certificate. Then again, he IS the president, so he can just use his thugs to get the grades he wants. We can't trust anything!

At $20 a pop per official transcript, Obama is going to bankrupt America again.

 

[Jackson50]

Also, too:



Guess which non-Kosmo said that.

Shit, Romney. Don't blow your haymaker load before it counts.

 

[PantherLotus]

Wait, you exclaimed that last month was when the polls really counted. Yet now you're retreating to "it's still summer" to justify your despondency?I feel validated.

You should feel insulted. AAA is minor leagues, bro.

 

[Tim-E]

I think you missed "Don't worry, God will fix it."

God wouldn't have allowed us to destroy the planet!

 

[eznark]

Romney is just giving Dan Rather time to work on his MSWord forgery.

 

[PantherLotus]

Romney is just giving Dan Rather time to work on his MSWord forgery.

you know the well is getting dry when you're falling back on Dan Rather.

 

[Tim-E]

you know the well is getting dry when you're falling back on Dan Rather.

Don't get him started on unions again.

 

[eznark]

I haven't gotten into union policy in forever on these boards

you know the well is getting dry when you're falling back on Dan Rather.

I had a meeting on forgery this morning and it came up. Is he dead?

 

[PantherLotus]

No, I think he has a thing similar to that Olberman nonsense/independent cable channel thing. He's still working. Appears on MSNBC occasionally.

 

[eznark]

I dunno, but he's been out of broadcasting for the better part of a decade.

Wasn't he on Current like last year? Also, I'm pretty sure I bought a book he wrote this year. Sp probably not dead.

 

[Incognito]

I'm thoroughly convinced that 75% of the Rush/FOX audience is liberals looking to get upset.

*raises hand* although i listen to genuinely laugh (these guys are hilarious) and to piss of my uptight liberal friends.

 

[pigeon]

:| they must not have been paying attention all these years he's been running.

There was a great article about this -- when the Democrats went out to start focus grouping in preparation for anti-Romney ads, they ran into a problem. Despite the fact that Romney had just clinched the Republican nomination, a majority of voters could not recognize his face, much less his policies.

I guess you could spin this as being good for Romney, but I kind of have to think that being completely unmemorable to the point of disappearing is a bad thing for a Presidential candidate.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Imagine if there were a trillion dollar industry associated with scaring people about the weather back in 30's. We all might be Amish now.

 

[adamsappel]

Why is it weird to use the word "iterate?"

When you could just use "said"? Jackson is obviously a very smart guy, but PoliGAF isn't wanting for its own William F. Buckley. I was a young English major once, I did my share of pontificating (c wut...), but I bet some people don't bother with his posts because they seem so manufactured, and that's a shame, because he makes a lot of great points.

 

[PantherLotus]

No, please don't encourage the dumbing-down of our conversation. I appreciate the effort, but there's nothing wrong with iterate or anything else Jackson50 is writing (other than his analysis, which I'm not defending nor degrading here).

 

[Tim-E]

Al Gore's liberal money machine has brainwashed Americans into being scared about the weather. You've all been had! Something something Solyndra!

When you could just use "said"? Jackson is obviously a very smart guy, but PoliGAF isn't wanting for its own William F. Buckley. I was a young English major once, I did my share of pontificating (c wut...), but I bet some people don't bother with his posts because they seem so manufactured, and that's a shame, because he makes a lot of great points.

I don't see why it matters, honestly. Let him write how he wants to write.

 

[ToxicAdam]

Do tell! I'm intrigued.

Or, wait. "Associated" is a pretty loose word. Are you talking about oil companies?

I'm talking about the aggregate amount spent by world governments/industries/think tanks/environmental groups over the past few decades.

When you could just use "said"? Jackson is obviously a very smart guy, but PoliGAF isn't wanting for its own William F. Buckley. I was a young English major once, I did my share of pontificating (c wut...), but I bet some people don't bother with his posts because they seem so manufactured, and that's a shame, because he makes a lot of great points.

For many of us, the internet (or these forums) are the only creative writing we do all day. So, if someone wants to use it to stretch out their vocabulary or say the same things in different ways, they shouldn't be discouraged or mocked for it.

 

[Dude Abides]

Imagine if there were a trillion dollar industry associated with scaring people about the weather back in 30's. We all might be Amish now.

Al Gore was looking awfully fat last week but he's slimmed down a bit this week.

 

[Incognito]

people realize that barack obama put the brakes on the economy heading to depressionville, but also recognize that the economy still is in terrible shape. and i don't think piddling economic reports will hurt obama nor will they benefit romney, who absent a respectable and legitimate plan can never hope to peel off undecideds. furthermore, people have been inundated for three and a half years about how terrible obama has been for the country - from debt, to the apology tour, to the stomping on the constitution. i mean, that stuff is repeated ad nauseam every single day. that's why i don't believe the republican attacks are going to have much sway on the electorate. i mean, unless there's some new scandal lurking underneath the surface people have most likely formed their opinion of obama, and are sticking to it. therefore, the only way I see Marquis de Mitt winning is by chipping away at some of obama's constituencies by consistently telling his story and how it can relate to them.

 

[StopMakingSense]

I had a meeting on forgery this morning and it came up. Is he dead?

Nope. Only know this as he's been writing reviews of The Newsroom episodes for Gawker.

 

[Tim-E]

Al Gore was looking awfully fat last week but he's slimmed down a bit this week.

Can you believe this guy has three computers? What a crock. You sheeple keep watching his blockbuster movies, buying his books, and feeding him Sun Chips; but one day you'll wake up!

 

[PhoenixDark]

Problem for him is that if the job numbers are ever good again, it will be come these final months.

Even McCain made up awesome ground against Obama in 2008 when it comes to Gallup daily tracking.

Good luck with that. There are what, three jobs reports until November? July, August, September; the October report will come out after the election. Unemployment is highly unlikely to drop below 8% unless we just start magically producing jobs at high levels. Indicators are down, consumer spending and confidence are down, and a bunch of people are about to lose UE benefits. Things tend to tick up towards the end of fall as companies prepare for the holidays though, which could help Obama; 202k jobs were created last September for instance.

As Kosmo pointed out, state races are close enough to be tipped in the coming months, and around 20% of the electorate is undecided. They will not break for Obama if we continue getting reports like June's.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Maybe my info is old or they have changed the plan. I'm going off this infographic from 2010.

Not sure were I got the 1 trillion number.

Anyway I guess this is just a drip in the water in the whole tax cuts proposition.

From the NPR Article: "And to give a sense of the other side of the ledger, according to the Joint Committee on Taxation, extending just the higher child tax credit over the next decade would add almost $270 billion to the deficit."

 

[RustyNails]

, but I bet some people don't bother with his posts because they seem so manufactured, and that's a shame, because he makes a lot of great points.

Those some people are probably the same that yell SCREW EDUMACATION.

 

[ToxicAdam]

That's disappointing.

Generally, when people talk about "trillion dollar industries," they're talking about, you know, profits. Rather than money spent by an aggregation of vaguely associated groups over the course of decades.

Industry can mean many different things and can apply to a wide variety of people.

"Ongoing work or study associated with a specified subject"

Also, [citation needed].

I'll do it when I get home later tonight. But what point will it prove to you? Will it change your worldview at all?

 

[Aaron Strife]

Good luck with that. There are what, three jobs reports until November? July, August, September; the October report will come out after the election. Unemployment is highly unlikely to drop below 8% unless we just start magically producing jobs at high levels. Indicators are down, consumer spending and confidence are down, and a bunch of people are about to lose UE benefits. Things tend to tick up towards the end of fall as companies prepare for the holidays though, which could help Obama; 202k jobs were created last September for instance.

As Kosmo pointed out, state races are close enough to be tipped in the coming months, and around 20% of the electorate is undecided. They will not break for Obama if we continue getting reports like June's.

October's comes before the election actually.

 

[PantherLotus]

October's comes before the election actually.

Before you get hammered on this, he was talking about the release of the official employment numbers, which are typically released a few weeks into the next month. The election is at the beginning of November, the Oct numbers will probably come afterward.

Edit: it's possible I misread your post and you actually mean they'll come out beforehand. I thought they'd be after. Not sure it matters except that it will probably start ramping up and it would be a nice little exclamation point on Obama's reelection.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Before you get hammered on this, he was talking about the release of the official employment numbers, which are typically released a few weeks into the next month. The election is at the beginning of November, the Oct numbers will probably come afterward.

The BLS numbers come out the first Friday of every month.

regardless in a close race they might push the number in Obama's favor but I doubt they'd have much impact unless they were really good or really bad.

 

[turnbuckle]

Jackson, how about trying too hard in the other direction? Do you actually talk like that? "Iterate"? "Chimera"?

What's wrong with using language to get your point across?

 

[PantherLotus]

What's wrong with using language to get your point across?

I'm pretty sure across is a preposition! j/k

This is something up with which I will not put! - Churchill, on being corrected about how to use prepositions properly

 

[PhoenixDark]

October's comes before the election actually.

Ah you're right. Well, four reports of middling jobs numbers horay

 

[DeathbyVolcano]

it won't matter, PD. As long as the conversation is "Obama can't add jobs fast enough!" rather than "We're losing jobs!" the right and Obama's opponents are fighting a losing battle on that end.

 

[ToxicAdam]

That's fine, but when most people hear the phrase "trillion dollar industry," their understanding of what you said is going to be very different from what you were actually intending to say.

In this context, the phrase is at best misleading.

It's not misleading. It's incendiary, meant to evoke a reaction.