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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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C

Cheebo

Banned
Plinko said:
Establishment darling in Texas? That's not shockingly high.
Click to expand...
Only 3% behind Trump in Texas is very high. Especially since he typically overperforms polling lately due to getting the majority of late deciders.

If other polling has him within 3 of Trump he would be the odds on favorite to win Texas.
 
K

kirblar

Member
brainchild said:
The human subjective experience (which is what the rationality behind an individual vote comes down to) should not be distilled down to statistics of probability. It would be extremely egregious and disrespectful to do so, and it carries the implication (unintentional or not) that minority groups are robots of specific kinds of programming that trends in certain directions. Someone voting against their own interests ALREADY REPRESENTS THEIR OWN INTERESTS BY DEFINITION. If that person's interests reflect the majority interest, then they represent the majority of their demographic, even if they don't vote the same way the majority votes.

This has nothing to do with the ability to make an objective prediction that is based on facts. This has to do with tact, and how you handle conversations surrounding people groups. If I'm a Hispanic, and I told you that I voted for Trump, without providing any additional information as to why I voted for him, and then you told me that I likely don't represent the majority of my race because most Hispanics aren't likely to vote for Trump, I would seriously question your racial sensitivity.
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And I'd immediately straight up tell you you didn't have the ability to actually have an adult conversation about population statistics and preferences without getting upset. Yes, you don't diagnose by probability- but that isn't what you're talking about- you're literally saying "I AM NOT A ROBOT" in this response because you don't think people should be grouped by "statistics". Which is ridiculous- we can pull out aggregate behavior trends, but no one's trying to say they are universally true. Most people are straight- that doesn't mean gay people don't exist.

There is not disrespect here. There is only factual data and your hypothetical individual's absurdly thin skin. Do you really think black Republicans really don't know they're outliers and are going to get mad at you pointing out that they're not a good example of the average black voter?
To be fair, this is not just a problem on poliGAF, but with pundits and the media in general. I have never liked how they've discussed voting trends when it comes to minorities, but this was just an opportunity to talk about it.
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The problem isn't them.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
effzee said:
So am I wrong to be worried that Trump winning the nomination isn't the greatest thing? That he has a much better shot of winning than anyone ever thought before?

I'm scared :(
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Ehhh... Trump is still very unpopular nationwide. He has managed to get more Republican support than was expected and people are expecting him to continue getting more and more popular. This is despite his bad numbers with minorities and women.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/voters-fear-trump_us_56c63651e4b0ec6725e2077b
 
G

Gruco

Banned
effzee said:
So am I wrong to be worried that Trump winning the nomination isn't the greatest thing? That he has a much better shot of winning than anyone ever thought before?

I'm scared :(
Click to expand...

I worry about this a little too. Mainly because Trump has proven so expectation-subverting that I don't really trust what my "traditional analysis" tells me about him. He has high negatives, he'll piss off some conservatives by being too moderate on hot button issues. He'll motivate Democrats to turn out in force.....or so I want to think. I don't think anyone really knows that. I could just as easily make the case that his moderate stances bring out swing voters, that his hard core "other people" stances will boost his turnout in the base.

Trump is just such a weird candidate. As much as I want to hope his nomination leads to a Dem president and Senate
and House
I won't feel cocky about it until the nominations are final and we get some real state GE polling.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah he's going to start doing well in polls. This is why I don't get the "what state will he win!!!" Stuff. He will do well in many states and maybe win some if polls shift 2-3%! He can easily win Texas. Or trump could come in third. I think this is liberal dreaming.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Gruco said:
I worry about this a little too. Mainly because Trump has proven so expectation-subverting that I don't really trust what my "traditional analysis" tells me about him. He has high negatives, he'll piss off some conservatives by being too moderate on hot button issues. He'll motivate Democrats to turn out in force.....or so I want to think. I don't think anyone really knows that. I could just as easily make the case that his moderate stances bring out swing voters, that his hard core "other people" stances will boost his turnout in the base.

Trump is just such a weird candidate. As much as I want to hope his nomination leads to a Dem president and Senate
and House
I won't feel cocky about it until the nominations are final and we get some real state GE polling.
Click to expand...
This. Assuming anything right now is a fool's errand.
 
K

kirblar

Member
Y2Kev said:
Yeah he's going to start doing well in polls. This is why I don't get the "what state will he win!!!" Stuff. He will do well in many states and maybe win some if polls shift 2-3%! He can easily win Texas. Or trump could come in third. I think this is liberal dreaming.
Click to expand...
He'll definitely win the GOP default states.

But this is his problem:

Cb3XxqOUsAApk_8.jpg:large
Click to expand...
 
Q

QuiteWhittle

Member
effzee said:
So am I wrong to be worried that Trump winning the nomination isn't the greatest thing? That he has a much better shot of winning than anyone ever thought before?

I'm scared :(
Click to expand...

I'm kinda apprehensive about it too.

Roland_Gunner said:
Ehhh... Trump is still very unpopular nationwide. He has managed to get more Republican support than was expected and people are expecting him to continue getting more and more popular. This is despite his bad numbers with minorities and women.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/voters-fear-trump_us_56c63651e4b0ec6725e2077b
Click to expand...

Numbers don't seem much worse than Clinton's.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 19m19 minutes ago
Sanders on his travel: "We're not writing off South Carolina, but you all know there are a dozen states voting on March 1."

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 17m17 minutes ago
Sanders is still unamused by the idea that his revolution isn't happening because turnout is down from 2008. "Barack Obama broke the mold."

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 16m16 minutes ago
Q: How can you win?
A: Sanders: "Ready for this one? By getting more delegates than my opponent."

Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 14m14 minutes ago
.@kasie: "What do you want from the Democratic Party at the convention?"
@BernieSanders: "To nominate Bernie Sanders as president."
Click to expand...

.
 
T

thefro

Member
Y2Kev said:
Yeah he's going to start doing well in polls. This is why I don't get the "what state will he win!!!" Stuff. He will do well in many states and maybe win some if polls shift 2-3%! He can easily win Texas. Or trump could come in third. I think this is liberal dreaming.
Click to expand...

Rubio's problem is Trump will have a yuuuge delegate lead after Super Tuesday and a lot of the "winner-take-all" states are either favorable to Trump or are not really winner-take-all.
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
Gabriel Debenedetti ‏@gdebenedetti 14m14 minutes ago
.@kasie: "What do you want from the Democratic Party at the convention?"
@BernieSanders: "To nominate Bernie Sanders as president."
Click to expand...
What hubris. Can you believe this narcissist?
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Cheebo said:
Only 3% behind Trump in Texas is very high. Especially since he typically overperforms polling lately due to getting the majority of late deciders.

If other polling has him within 3 of Trump he would be the odds on favorite to win Texas.
Click to expand...

Except Texas is proportional and if the race is that tight between all three candidates, it may not matter.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
I'm quite confident Clinton's campaign will learning from bernie to take Trump seriously. They have polling to know where to invest beyond the swing states to see if it is worth putting money in places like GA, AZ, IN, MO and beyond.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
IamDodongo said:
ewww

/r/politics went from a Sanders circlejerk to a Trump circlejerk today. Redditors really dislike Clinton
Click to expand...
All I see is articles about Trump winning Nevada, why smart black people support Bernie, Clinton's email scandal, and at least 10 posts about Clinton's transcripts.

/r/politics never ceases to amaze.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
kirblar said:
And I'd immediately straight up tell you you didn't have the ability to actually have an adult conversation about population statistics and preferences without getting upset. Yes, you don't diagnose by probability- but that isn't what you're talking about- you're literally saying "I AM NOT A ROBOT" in this response because you don't think people should be grouped by "statistics". Which is ridiculous- we can pull out aggregate behavior trends, but no one's trying to say they are universally true. Most people are straight- that doesn't mean gay people don't exist.

There is not disrespect here. There is only factual data and your hypothetical individual's absurdly thin skin. Do you really think black Republicans really don't know they're outliers and are going to get mad at you pointing out that they're not a good example of the average black voter?
The problem isn't them.
Click to expand...

Some of my black cousins, though republican they may be, should not be referred to as 'outliers' of black people. I find (and I'm sure that they would too) that to be incredibly disrespectful and racially insensitive, and you should be ashamed for even suggesting such a ridiculous notion.

I have no problem with you (or anyone else) saying that black republicans have typically carried the minority vote amongst all black voters, but don't tell me that they don't represent the majority of their demographic's interests, because you don't know that, and not all voters vote for their own interests. The same logic applies to all minorities, but if you wanna call me thin-skinned because I refuse to sit back and watch people discuss minorities like they're some kind of monolith, then I'll just consider you (and anyone who agrees with you) tone deaf and move on with my day.

This topic is a little too close to home for me and I don't think I'll be able to continue to engage in this conversation without being emotionally affected, so this is my cue to drop it.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Yeah he's going to start doing well in polls. This is why I don't get the "what state will he win!!!" Stuff. He will do well in many states and maybe win some if polls shift 2-3%! He can easily win Texas. Or trump could come in third. I think this is liberal dreaming.
Click to expand...

As a big proponent of the "what states" theory of Rubio, I think it's a problem that has no apparent natural geographic base to turn to. Rising 2-3 points isn't going to get the job done. A narrow win in Texas isn't going to get the job done. He only becomes competitive with more consolidation and increasingly massive ad campaigns. As long as that's not happening, he's just getting further and further behind in delegates, until his ceiling becomes "stop Trump's majority"
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Trump will increase white turnout in the south and other red areas. It's worth keeping in mind that while his ignorant comments have no impact on republican support, thy continue to kill him with independents and minorities. I can't imagine being afraid of him. He's the perfect candidate to help an uninspiring candidate like Hillary. He's going to make all types of ugly comments about her and he'll likely go too far in attacking Obama, to the point that the democrat base becomes more energized than they would be against Rubio or Kasich for instance.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Gruco said:
As a big proponent of the "what states" theory of Rubio, I think it's a problem that has no apparent natural geographic base to turn to. Rising 2-3 points isn't going to get the job done. A narrow win in Texas isn't going to get the job done. He only becomes competitive with more consolidation and increasingly massive ad campaigns. As long as that's not happening, he's just getting further and further behind in delegates, until his ceiling becomes "stop Trump's majority"
Click to expand...

Do you trust the party not to screw over trump? I don't. A win even narrow will boost Rubio. He has no states under his belt. Once he has some the momentum will build.

Why is everyone so down on him? He's a really solid candidate blocked by a fascist.
 
B

brainchild

Banned
Cheebo said:
But they are outliers. That is a 100% indisputable fact. You are arguing against the very nature of demographic statistics.
Click to expand...

One final point...

Just because something is a fact about a person, it doesn't mean that you should say it to them or about them. That was my whole point.
 
M

Macho Madness

Member
Y2Kev said:
Do you trust the party not to screw over trump? I don't. A win even narrow will boost Rubio. He has no states under his belt. Once he has some the momentum will build.

Why is everyone so down on him? He's a really solid candidate blocked by a fascist.
Click to expand...
He has momentum but he doesn't have the momentum Trump does.
 
E

Elaugaufein

Member
Y2Kev said:
Do you trust the party not to screw over trump? I don't. A win even narrow will boost Rubio. He has no states under his belt. Once he has some the momentum will build.

Why is everyone so down on him? He's a really solid candidate blocked by a fascist.
Click to expand...

I think it's the getting blocked by a fascist (and sometimes Ted Cruz) thing. Its not a good look.
 
C

Cheebo

Banned
brainchild said:
One final point...

Just because something is a fact about a person, it doesn't mean that you should say it to them or about them. That was my whole point.
Click to expand...

But when discussing demographic statistics you can't avoid it, its the very nature of political statistics.
 
S

Slacker

Member
CCS said:
Still looks like a Sanders circlejerk as well. I wonder how many people are participating in both...
Click to expand...

I've seen a few people say they support Bernie First, then Trump second. The mind reels. I'm very grateful for GAF these days as /r/politics has become absolutely useless.
 
G

Gruco

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Do you trust the party not to screw over trump? I don't. A win even narrow will boost Rubio. He has no states under his belt. Once he has some the momentum will build.

Why is everyone so down on him? He's a really solid candidate blocked by a fascist.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what it means to trust the GOP to "not" screw over Trump? I fully expect them to try - I think all sorts of super PACs are starting to mobilize against him. I'm not sure that the GOP is actually capable of stopping him right now. He's going to dramatically expand his delegate lead on Super Tuesday, and as long as Cruz and Kasich don't drop out has a very strong chance at taking both Ohio and Florida in 3 weeks.

Even if Rubio finds some state to win (still not clear what that is), he'll immediately have to deal with Trump winning somewhere else in NE or the South by like 5x his margin. So I don't see that giving him much momentum.

Also, Rubio isn't a very good candidate. If I found anything about him impressive I'd be less down on him but his success, such as it is, is only coming by default and because he looks good on paper. He really has yet to accomplish on his own other than being the "stop Trump" prop people settled on. Right now the biggest advantage Rubio has is the calendar, which lets him hold out hope that he can drive everyone out and then rack up a lot of late wins. But it's not clear Cruz will ever leave, and if Trump wins on super tuesday, OH, and FL it doesn't really matter.
 
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