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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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danm999

Member
How did the RNC turn what was suppose to be an all-star field into this mess? Going into the primary, republicans couldn't stop talking about how strong their field was with Bush, Christie, Kasich, Rubio, etc, all serious republicans with results, character, electability and now they have nothing but Rubio who can't win a primary to save his life.

You could (and undoubtedly someone will) write an entire book on how badly the RNC fucked up every single stage of this process, going all the way back to 2012.

How they made a bunch of rule changes that took away all their power. How they misread the strengths and weaknesses of their candidates so laughably. How they misread the demeanor of their own voter base. How they allowed parasites and bullies to feed off of their organisation instead of dealing with them. How they allowed their establishment front runner to suck up all the endorsements and money, then blow the GDP of a small nation attacking someone who can barely fend off third places in most contests.

It's just a fucking mess that will be marveled over for years,
 

CCS

Banned
As long as Cruz and Kasich stay in until March 15, Trump should have this locked in. Please please please stay in.
 

daedalius

Member
Town hall was pretty good

Hilary seemed to do well, Colbert bit was pretty funny though.

Bernie did seem a bit deflated as people were saying, I really cringe when he constantly goes back to the REVOLUTION talk...

Make Super Tuesday a holiday, that'd be a good start!
 

benjipwns

Banned
Awesome, Trump and Carson have become my two favorite candidates of the century. They play it like the cynical game it is with no fucks for the standard decorum.

As long as Cruz and Kasich stay in until March 15, Trump should have this locked in. Please please please stay in.
Cruz isn't going anywhere. He's stockpiled his cash and he's the only TRUE CONSERVATIVE in the race.

Limbaugh lost it last week over the fact that people in the party are expecting him to dissuade his listeners away from Trump and Cruz to Rubio. He's only really been able to get him distrustful of Trump, and boost Cruz. If the callers are any indication.
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/23/opinion/campaign-stops/donald-trump-crony-capitalist.html
Four years ago, in the first draft of my book “A Capitalism for the People,” I had a section dedicated to how worrisome a Donald J. Trump presidential bid would be for America. I was not prescient. It’s just that having grown up in Italy, I knew how a real estate tycoon — in this case, Silvio Berlusconi — whose career exemplified crony capitalism could become the leader of supposed pro-market forces, and I knew what it meant for the country.

I cut this section after being told that my point was irrelevant: In America, there was no chance that a character like Mr. Trump would ever be seriously considered as a candidate.

Then 2016 happened: After sweeping wins in New Hampshire and South Carolina, Mr. Trump has shattered that notion. The Trump phenomenon caught everybody by surprise. Yet it is a manifestation of a fundamental contradiction long present in the Republican Party: Despite fierce anti-big-business sentiment among many Republican voters, no Republican candidate has emerged to champion them.

This contradiction created the space for Mr. Trump. In spite of being every bit a part of that pro-business establishment, Mr. Trump can pretend to be anti-establishment by sometimes reviling big business, because he doesn’t need its funding for his campaign.

Among self-identified Republicans in a 2010 Booth-Kellogg survey, 43 percent agreed that “big business distorts the functioning of markets to its own advantage,” and only 22 percent disagreed. But the Republican establishment has happily become big business’s mouthpiece. This fracture became evident during the congressional debate on the Troubled Asset Relief Program: Many Republicans in the House voted against it, even though it came from George W. Bush, a Republican.

The Tea Party grew, at least in part, out of this tension, as did the surprising defeat of Representative Eric Cantor, then majority leader of the House, in a Virginia Republican primary in 2014. Mr. Cantor was accused by his opponent, David Brat, of representing “large corporations seeking insider deals, crony bailouts and a constant supply of low-wage workers.”

Why have so few serious anti-establishment candidates emerged in the Republican presidential primaries? A grass-roots campaign for a House or Senate seat is within financial reach for some people, but not a presidential run. Without the support of big business, a Republican candidate would be unable to raise that kind of money.

But Mr. Trump does not need rich donors. To his supporters, he appears to be a free-market evangelist. According to the latest Booth-Kellogg survey, 38 percent of American voters think that Mr. Trump has the most pro-market platform of any candidate (a lead of 13 points over the next candidate). If a cursory glance at his very vague platform — heavy import tax on China, a wall against immigration, etc. — is not sufficient to see how misplaced this trust is, look at Mr. Trump’s career.

As a businessman Mr. Trump has a longstanding habit of using his money and power aggressively to obtain special deals from the government. For example, his Grand Hyatt Hotel in Manhattan was built with the benefit of a decades-long tax abatement obtained through government connections.

In 1985, Mr. Trump circumvented New York State campaign-finance laws by making a $30,000 donation, through several Trump companies, to Andrew Stein, the Manhattan borough president who was running for president of the City Council. Mr. Stein was also a member of the New York City Board of Estimate, the body then responsible for land-use decisions in New York.


Finally, Mr. Trump has a long history of promoting eminent-domain abuses to expropriate private land he wanted.

He is, in short, the essence of that commingling of big business and government that goes under the name of crony capitalism.

We cannot blame voters for being confused about pro-business versus pro-market politicians. The Republican establishment deserves most of the responsibility.
Being pro-market means being in favor of competition and against excessive concentration, as Theodore Roosevelt was. Business executives are pro-market when they want to enter a new sector.

But when they become established in a sector, they favor entry restrictions, excessive licensing, distortive regulation and corporate subsidies. Those policies are pro-business (in the sense that they favor existing businesses), but they are harmful and distort a competitive market economy.

With the pretense of defending free markets, the Republican Party consistently supported big business. When did any Republican presidential candidate — other than Mr. Trump — speak in favor of some antitrust enforcement? When did he campaign for tougher enforcement against white-collar crime? When did anyone call for free trade in pharmaceuticals? Or for more competitive pricing of drugs bought by Medicare?

The forced identification between the interest of markets and that of business practiced by the Republican establishment in the last 30 years made it easier for Republican voters to fall for Mr. Trump, a businessman who pretends to uphold free-market principles.

It is an indication of a country’s institutional corruption when inside a main party the only alternative to the prevailing crony capitalism is a tycoon with a long history of shady deals.
Trump's campaign is dead for sure after this The New York Times piece.
 
So is Kasich going to drop out, or does he wait for Trump to beat him in his home state?
He'll wait to get beat. His logic to the GOP seems to be something like this-- "I'm not winning the popularity contest, but screw all these other guys. I'm the only sane one and, look, we all know the only state that matters is Ohio and I can deliver it to you. Just get your 2004 map back and I can hold Ohio and assure the win."

That plan seems no more or less sane than having Trump be the nominee. It's at least a theoretical path to 270. Still almost impossible, mind you, given the states they'd still have to take back, but it's better than just running in and hoping the numbers work out. The Democrats have moved onto playing for electoral college wins over the popular vote and the GOP should probably try to do the same.

Alternate theory, Trump already has him signed for VP, which would actually be an okay choice. Not sure Trump has ever once addressed him, questioned him or responded to him in public. Hell, I wouldn't be shocked if he has Carson signed for a cabinet spot for his cooperation. This is Trump. Deals are sort of his thing. Staying through the March 15th contests could help Trump secure the nomination that day if it keeps Rubio distracted even a little. Cruz as competition ends after next Tuesday and it's perfect for Carson to drop then. Kasich still needs to be a tool for an extra 2 weeks to catch the first wave of the winner-take-alls.
 

benjipwns

Banned
I am appropriating the surplus labor and unchecked campaign expenditures of the massive FOREIGN OWNED corporation The New York Times Company to try and thwart a true people's democracy.

I'll try harder.
 

jiggle

Member
That one debate where he came up with "Donald Trump, are you a comic book villain? Ben Carson, can you do math?", etc on the spot was pretty outstanding. He is incredibly quick on his feet. He just isn't charismatic.
Those zingers are as prerehearsed as macobot's one liner
 

benjipwns

Banned
One thing worth noting. These aren't debates. Cruz in the courtroom is where he got his reputation, and that would look completely different.

How many of these candidates (both dropped out and still in) could even work a case, and that includes the ones with law degrees?

Trump is ideal for the 30 second/60 second, let's move on, format. Cruz would talk circles around him and arguably everyone else including probably Obama if it was a four hour format with 15-30 minute answers/statements/rebuttals.
 
Those zingers are as prerehearsed as macobot's one liner

Nah, that line was entirely a function of the questions that had been asked to that point. Perhaps he had something in mind as a general response to gotcha questions, but to come up with that whole speech on his feet was very impressive.

Edit: also that time when he crushed the buildings with an on-the-spot answer to a guy who asked him about how he would deal with global shadow brokers trying to set up the New World Order. Just about anyone else would have been completely perplexed by that question, but Cruz crushed it. The guy is quick.

Honestly if you could buff his charisma by a few points, he'd be an outstanding candidate.
 

benjipwns

Banned
Debates having longer time frames for statements helped Reagan tremendously. In today's methods he could have never shook his image as a light weight as 60 second soundbites would be expected. But when he, even if it was against Carter and Mondale, was able to look as good or better in articulating his arguments on policy it basically stripped the last fears for a lot of people from him.

The two major Kennedy/Nixon debates for example had eight minute opening statements. Individual answers were two to three minutes, with a one and a half to two minute rebuttal. And three minute closing statements.

In 2012, Romney and Obama went with zero opening statements, a 2 minute closing statement in the first and third debates only. They did two minute responses and one minute rebuttals.

Cruz would seem more impressive in those debates, even the modern ones where he would be given more chances to respond in the flow like Romney took advantage of in the first debate last time. Now the moderators have so much to get through with so many candidates it benefits the Trump, Christie, Carly, Rudy, Cain, etc. types.
 

CCS

Banned
I feel like I'm watching a cartoon with the Republican race.

Tune in next week to find out if Rubio can finally STUMP THE TRUMP! (spoiler: he won't)
 
Did Trump really win the Hispanic vote? I have a hard time believing that.

All 10 of them. Seriously though, Hispanic Republicans tend to be extremely conservative, so it's really not a big deal (especially when we are taking about such a low number). I believe entrance polling had Hispanics at like 8% of the vote yesterday
 
Not for me, sorry. What's the significance?

When people wonder how Trump won the Hispanic vote, I think they were assuming Trump won national Hispanic vote. According to Wiki, in 2011 20% of US Hispanics identified as republican (I can't find more recent number atm), which would mean that Trump winning national Hispanic vote would be a very odd event indeed.

Which is why the "Republican Hispanic vote" -clarification was needed.
 
538 only has Rubio having a greater chance at winning one state on ST: Virginia. And that's only with polls plus (Trump has a 20% greater chance with PO). Everything else is Trump or Cruz (with Texas). The future isn't bright for Rubio. He'll probably win 2 states at the most.
 
538 only has Rubio having a greater chance at winning one state on ST: Virginia. And that's only with polls plus (Trump has a 20% greater chance with PO). Everything else is Trump or Cruz (with Texas). The future isn't bright for Rubio. He'll probably win 2 states at the most.

This is what I don't get, Rubio is continually propped-up as the last remaining person who could possibly take Trump down. Based on what? How about he win a damn state! Hell, I bet we get polls this week where he's getting killed in his home state.
 

Hammer24

Banned
Rubio's only chance is to keep it as close as possible on Super Tuesday, and start winning from March 15th on. That's if more drop out.
 
You guys are treading some serious racist waters with the whole 'hispanic vote' ordeal. Hispanics (like any other minority) are not a monolith. They are a community of individuals who have their own brains and may vote for whatever reasons they see fit. Whether it is in their best interest or not is irrelevant and is not tied to some absolute standard of representation for their demographic.
 
You guys are treading some serious racist waters with the whole 'hispanic vote' ordeal. Hispanics (like any other minority) are not a monolith. They are a community of individuals who have their own brains and may vote for whatever reasons they see fit. Whether it is in their best interest or not is irrelevant and is not tied to some absolute standard of representation for their demographic.
..,Because they're saying the Hispanics who voted in the NV GOP caucus aren't necessarily representative of Hispanics nationwide? That's racist?
 
You guys are treading some serious racist waters with the whole 'hispanic vote' ordeal. Hispanics (like any other minority) are not a monolith. They are a community of individuals who have their own brains and may vote for whatever reasons they see fit. Whether it is in their best interest or not is irrelevant and is not tied to some absolute standard of representation for their demographic.

Really? It's called voting trends, get out of here with that racist crap
 

danm999

Member
Rubio seems screwed on ST to me. I do not see a path for him.

Best he can do is keep Trump below winner takes all thresholds and hope something dramatic occurs after that to change the race in a major way.
 
..,Because they're saying the Hispanics who voted in the NV GOP caucus aren't necessarily representative of Hispanics nationwide? That's racist?

What I'm saying is that being dismissive of the fact that Trump won the republican hispanic vote on the grounds that it probably doesn't represent most Hispanics is walking a fine line. It's not outright racist, but it's heading in that direction.


Really? It's called voting trends, get out of here with that racist crap

And there's a way to talk about voting trends without treating Hispanics like a monolith.
 
Not for me, sorry. What's the significance?

only 17% of nevada latinos are republicans. the overwhelming amount register as democratic (55%) or independent (about 20%) with the remainder as "other." Trump's favorability with democrats and independents is beyond abysmal.

nevada%20latinos_zpsk4qhncca.png


He didn't even win all of nevada latino republicans, just a majority/plurality of those. Romney won 25% of latinos nationally- they're not where black voters are "yet" but this number is going to go down a lot in 2016.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Rubio getting 2nd here means nothing. He gets zero advantage because he and Cruz get same amount of elegates.

Can't wait for them to spin this later this morning.

I mean, the guy is losing by 10-20 points each time.
 

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Cruz is sinking like a stone. Shit's over for him. Damn.

Also

That's interesting that Trump won hispanics in Nevada. Just like Bernie. He also won Hispanics. Have you heard? He won Hispanics.

Rubio getting 2nd here means nothing. He gets zero delegates.

Can't wait for them to spin this later this morning.

I mean, the guy is losing by 10-20 points each time.

Cruz and Rubio each got 5 delegates I think. Trump picked up 12, per Gewgle.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Umm... He does get delegates.

Cruz is sinking like a stone. Shit's over for him. Damn.

Also

That's interesting that Trump won hispanics in Nevada. Just like Bernie. He also won Hispanics. Have you heard? He won Hispanics.



Cruz and Rubio each got 5 delegates I think. Trump picked up 12, per Gewgle.

Sorry--not what I meant. Just woke up.

I meant he gets no advantage because he and Cruz get same amount of delegates.
 
Final Vote Tally:
Trump 45.9%
Rubio 23.9%
Cruz 21.4%
Carson 4.8%
Kasich 3.6%

Man, Cruz sucks at this.

a) Did anyone expect Cruz to be doing well outside of heavily Fundamentalist areas ? (And if so why ?)
b) The RNC has effectively rigged things against Cruz (states that favour Fundamentalists are largely Proportional, ones that don't are largely WTA).

I'm just happy with him staying within a couple of points of Rubio since that's likely enough to keep him in , on the hopes he can pick up Texas. With both Trump and Cruz running it's likely Rubio will get a big ol' pot of nothing from Texas.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I firmly believe Rubio getting all these endorsements from establishment politicians may hurt him.
 
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