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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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B

Brinbe

Member
IceBringer said:
Who's ric flair?
Click to expand...

bg0zXfc.gif
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
Kusagari said:
Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray 11m11 minutes ago

White Non-College Women (GOP margin)
1980: +16
1988: +13
1992: +8
1996: -6
2000: +6
2004: +18
2008: +28
2012: +20
2016: +25

(exit polls)

White College Women (GOP margin) 1980: +9 1988: +6 1992: +0 1996: -4 2000: -5 2004: +1 2008: -7 2012: +6 2016: -8

White College Men (GOP margin) 1980: +32 1988: +30 1992: +10 1996: +21 2000: +23 2004: +20 2008: +14 2012: +21 2016: +11

White Non-College Men (GOP margin) 1980: +25 1988: +22 1992: +6 1996: +9 2000: +18 2004: +30 2008: +20 2012: +31 2016: +47

white non-college men love them some Trump
Click to expand...

The numbers roughly line up with the older Upshot poll of NC that had us winning bigly. GOod sign!
 
M

MassiveNights

Banned
538 are running a live forecast tonight as results come in, here's an explanation:

How Our Election Night Projections Work

Throughout this evening, we’ll be updating election night forecasts as states are called for presidential and senate candidates. To clear up any misinterpretations, we’re not trying to project states based on partial returns. So if (for example) Trump is leading Missouri by 5 percentage points with 40 percent of precincts reporting, that won’t matter to the model.

Instead, our election night model is much simpler than that. It relies upon only these three things:

  1. Our pre-election forecasts.
  2. States that are “called” by our partners at ABC News.
  3. The amount of time that has passed since the polls closed in a state, if it hasn’t been called yet.

To repeat, these forecasts do not use votes counted so far. They also do not use exit polls. They do not look at margin of victory. The only input is a single designation for every state: “D” (called for the Democrat), “R” (called for the Republican”) or blank (not called yet), based on calls made by the ABC News Decision Desk. We can also call states for independent candidates, or project that the Georgia or Louisiana senate races will go to a runoff.

Having a state called for you helps in two ways in the model.

  • It gives you electoral votes.
  • It helps you in our forecast for the other states.For example, if Wisconsin has been called for Clinton, the model can infer that she’s more likely to win Minnesota also. And it really helps a candidate if they win in an upset, since that’s a sign they may be beating their polls everywhere.

Our election models have been running tens of thousands of simulations each day in order to account for the relationship between different states in the Electoral College. The most important takeaway is that state outcomes are correlated: If Trump (unexpectedly) wins Virginia, for example, he’s also extremely likely to win North Carolina. So each simulation creates a plausible map based on a state’s region and demographics. In one simulation, perhaps, Clinton might outperform among Hispanics, therefore winning Florida and Arizona despite losing Ohio and Iowa.

These simulations are useful for our election night forecast also. Once we know the results in some states, we can make better inferences about the results in the remaining ones. So as states are called, we update the forecasts accordingly based on a series of regression analyses that relate every state to every other one.

The model also considers how long it’s been without a call in a state. If it originally expected Clinton to win New Jersey by 10 percentage points, for instance, but New Jersey still hasn’t been called five hours after polls have closed there, it will discount that lead significantly, assuming the state is closer than pre-election polls had the state.

As a final word of caution, I wouldn’t read too much into the first few called states, unless there are substantial upsets (Clinton winning Indiana, for example). But once swing states start to be called and the model has more data to work off, its projections will be more meaningful.
Click to expand...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/2016-election-results-coverage/?ex_cid=extra_banner
 
N

newshinycd

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
You're freaking out about what Trump people are telling Katy Tur? For real?
Click to expand...

Really. Calm down guys. If Trump had what Romney's campaign had, then I would be freaking out right now.

Remember:
Trump stopped paying his pollster.
Trump doesn't have a ground game.
Trump didn't even know what states to go to leading up to election day.
 
C

cartoon_soldier

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
There are like no black people in NH. That means nothing.
Click to expand...

Sorry, black turnout down overall.

White turnout way up in MI/NH.

Voysa Reezun said:
This reminds me that I'm looking forward to seeing some of you folks melt down after the first polls close and Trump takes an early electoral college lead off the backs of Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee.

I hope that you relax, but you won't.
Click to expand...

That won't affect me. I know only state called at close for Hillary will be Vermont.
 
N

Not

Banned
Yeah, Trump people are spinning so hard they're gonna start drilling into the earth any second

I wouldn't worry about it
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
LUNTZ IS BACK ON THE HILL-TRAIN
 
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