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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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C

CCS

Banned
Grief.exe said:
Dat bounce

bDxntAt.png




In the Twitter thread, Nate says they are new but had accurate metrics during Missouri Primaries.
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Ahh, thank you my friend :)
 
T

Teggy

Member
Seriously, what the hell is wrong with this guy?

On the poignant appearance of Muslim lawyer Khizr Khan and his wife, whose son, Humayun, an Army captain, posthumously received a Bronze Star and a Purple Heart and was buried at Arlington National Cemetery after he was killed by a suicide bomber in Iraq in 2004. As his wife, Ghazala, stood silently by his side, Khan held up a copy of the Constitution and asked Trump if he had ever read it and said, “You have sacrificed nothing.”


“I’d like to hear his wife say something.”
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C

Crisco

Banned
Holmes said:
I see. I know Obama got 34% in 08 which I would assume is the ceiling, so a 34-33-33 win for Clinton would be very tight and unrealistic (although one for the history books, just like a Johnson win would be). Bill is down there campaigning soon so maybe if the Clinton's actually show interest...
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Wait what? Willy is coming to town? I'm gonna have to show up to that.
 
Z

Zereta

Member
Teggy said:
Seriously, what the hell is wrong with this guy?
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Okay. It didn't need to be said but it really does: Fuck Donald Trump.

Lie and namecall anyone else. You don't go after the father who lost his son in the line of duty who actively faces discrimination because he happens to be of the same religion as the "enemy".

Untouchable.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Rebel Leader said:
Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 17m17 minutes ago
We are suffering through the worst long-term unemployment in the last 70 years. I want change - Crooked Hillary Clinton does not.

(for those who don't want to do math 70 years ago was 1946)
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Meanwhile the Fed sent signals last week that they think we might actually be at FULL employment (stopped mentioning "underutilization of labor resources").
 
D

dramatis

Member
“I wasn’t expecting to burst into tears:” the surprisingly emotional experience of Clinton’s nomination [Vox]
I have found the nomination of a woman for president this week to be an emotional experience in ways I did not expect.

And it’s not just me — I heard from lots of people who didn’t expect to cry during a roll call vote but all of a sudden found tears coming down their faces. I started asking people to tell me about it. Where were they? What happened?

"I wasn't sure how I'd feel this week as I've been lukewarm on Hillary in the past," Andrea Coleman told me. She’s 35 and lives in Colorado. "However, as I was watching the roll call, I started getting oddly emotional. Each announcement I found my lip quivering and my eyes welling up. Then when she crossed over the 1,382, I immediately burst into tears."
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The research happened in West Bengal, India, which mandated a certain number of positions of "pradhan" (essentially city council chief) be given to women. Each election cycle, a certain number of villages would be chosen, at random, to fill this quota.

This created a perfect natural experiment in which economists could compare cities where girls grew up with female leaders to those where they didn’t.

The results were stunning — and suggest that when women took leadership positions, the community started to view other women in fundamentally different ways. In villages assigned female pradhans, parents became more aspirational in what they expected of their daughters.

The fraction of parents who believed that a daughter’s occupation (but not a son’s) should be determined by her in-laws declined from 76 percent to 65 percent.
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A

Abinash117

Member
pigeon said:
I'm not really sure why you would think that Trump is not a white nationalist. He's behaved pretty consistently in support of it for many years and he was clearly raised in it. It runs in his family, after all.

Also I'm kind of unsure what the difference is between "nationalism and racism", which you are fine identifying with him, and white nationalism. I think paleoconservatism is pretty clearly inaccurate since Trump demonstrates zero interest in limited government and in fact explicitly wants to expand it in a bunch of ways in order to put his white nationalist goals in practice.
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He is close to a paloconservative in a sense he checks on many things of it besides a few things. It was some form of nationalism since I don't think he really is strictly a white nationalist. Over the course of the election it comes clear to me that it looks like he really doesn't have a real ideology and just does things based on his gut feelings and whatever he thinks something will help him out. The only thing he is consistent about is his racism he had over the years, but again I don't think he believes in any form of white nationalism. He is just more or less a racist asshole.
 
J

jerd

Member
pigeon said:
Meanwhile the Fed sent signals last week that they think we might actually be at FULL employment (stopped mentioning "underutilization of labor resources").
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Honestly discrediting government statistics was a pretty smart move. There isn't a fact in the world that can break him because they're probably just in Hillary's pocket/biased
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
why is Nate keeping Nevada toss-up and having Trump ahead by a few % probability?

yeah Nevada lacks polls, but do we honestly believe that Trump has a chance there?
 
T

Teggy

Member
Trump's comment on Khan's wife getting some nice attention. Maybe Fox News will have to acknowledge their existence finally.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Watching Bernie's speech again. It's amazing how Bill Clinton observes him with this look on his face like "you better not fuck this up". When he finally speaks about Hillary he lightens up. I think Bill was preparing for the worst.
 
I

Iolo

Member
gutter_trash said:
why is Nate keeping Nevada toss-up and having Trump ahead by a few % probability?

yeah Nevada lacks polls, but do we honestly believe that Trump has a chance there?
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You answered your question--not enough polls and they don't show her ahead by enough. Until we get more polls there is no way to say either way.

kadotsu said:
Don't forget, the polls that matter won't be out for another three weeks.
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Correct, things should settle down later (that's why they call it a bounce, it usually comes down) and they still aren't predictive. But, if she didn't get a bounce then I would be very worried. Seeing a bounce means this election year has not gone completely off the rails. And that we should be able to tell by the middle of next week.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
dramatis said:
“I wasn’t expecting to burst into tears:” the surprisingly emotional experience of Clinton’s nomination [Vox]
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My wife and a lot of my female facebook friends had a similar reaction. The gender aspect of this has been overshadowed by a lot of stuff, but it hit them all this week.

Here's what she wrote on Facebook:

Was listening to NPR Politics reporting on the convention in the car with my kids. My son (11) asked why they had a sound of glass shattering, so I explained the concept of the glass ceiling to him. It brought me to tears - I wasn't prepared to feel so strongly about what this means for women in this country, and the acknowledgment of the glass ceilings and double standards that we live with every day.

For every woman who has pondered how aggressive to be in a work meeting.

For every woman who has received the feedback that they are "shrill"

For every woman who's been asked to take notes in a meeting, regardless of her actual role

For every woman who has watched the relentless criticism of female politicians - how they speak, how they dress, how they run their families, when a male would never receive the same criticism.

For all the women who came before me, who fought to actually have choice in their profession.

For women who yearned for STEM professions but were told teaching was their only option.

For my mom, who has lived this fight.

For our daughters, who see new possibility.

For their daughters, who will know all this as only an academic subject, part of their history class.

It's time.
Click to expand...
 
I

Iolo

Member
Reuters is broken because they just changed their methodology last week so it may even be overstating Hillary's support. Also it was +6, I can't figure out where the +5 is coming from unless there was another poll.
 
P

Paskil

Member
Where do we see Tom Perez going in a Clinton administration? Word leading up to the VP pick was that he was now friends with the family, but I don't just think he was sitting next to Bill because they're friends
I don't know, maybe he was
. Given his experience, could we see him taking over DOJ or getting the SCOTUS nod? Solicitor General if he's truly interested in lawyering?
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
RustyNails said:
Wait, didn't reuters/ipsos also come out yesterday and showed hillary +5?
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It did but that's essentially unchanged from their last poll and that poll has been absurdly Clinton-tilted and probably garbage. (It was +10 or +11 before the FBI report and no lower than +4 after).

Grief.exe said:
Wasn't that one post-RNC, but pre-DNC?
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It was during the DNC. It's a super noisy poll. It's gonna need to be like +15 Clinton to support a trend.
 
A

ampere

Member
Paskil said:
Where do we see Tom Perez going in a Clinton administration? Word leading up to the VP pick was that he was now friends with the family, but I don't just think he was sitting next to Bill because they're friends
I don't know, maybe he was
. Given his experience, could we see him taking over DOJ or getting the SCOTUS nod? Solicitor General if he's truly interested in lawyering?
Click to expand...

Didn't realize he had a law degree, but I guess that's not exactly uncommon in politics.

54 tho. Too old for SCOTUS we need someone in their 40s :p
 
D

Dubbedinenglish

Banned
Re: Russia


I try to not be conspiracy theorist but there is something with the new DCCC hacks and that the old hacks also went into Clinton's campaign analytics. This two targets are seemingly the weakest parts of Trumps campaign. He is sorely behind on the money front but we have Wikileaks and Russia going after donor lists and releasing donor personal info. Like this was an attempt to dissuade people from donating to her campaign and Dems in general, seems oddly convenient no? Then we just learned they got into the voter analytics of the Clinton campaign, somewhere where the GOP says he doesn't have. Again this seems oddly specific to go after being a gig weakness of Trump's campaign. Pair that with the timing supposed to be to negatively effect the DNC before convention and it the whole thing seems very coordinated precisely to help with Trumps weaknesses.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Joe Shlabotnik said:
It did but that's essentially unchanged from their last poll and that poll has been absurdly Clinton-tilted and probably garbage. (It was +10 or +11 before the FBI report and no lower than +4 after).



It was during the DNC. It's a super noisy poll. It's gonna need to be like +15 Clinton to support a trend.
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It won't happen. They changed their methodology so it probably won't be as screwy.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
The richest and most powerful country in the world, the government still uses Windows.

How are we not using some forked build of Linux focused on privacy and encryption? How are all emails and messages not using ete encryption?
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Grief.exe said:
The richest and most powerful country in the world, the government still uses Windows.

How are we not using some forked build of Linux focused on privacy and encryption? How are all emails and messages not using ete encryption?
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Good luck getting Congress to approve the spending for such a thing.

I should note there is a special system for classified information though.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Dubbedinenglish said:
Re: Russia


I try to not be conspiracy theorist but there is something with the new DCCC hacks and that the old hacks also went into Clinton's campaign analytics. This two targets are seemingly the weakest parts of Trumps campaign. He is sorely behind on the money front but we have Wikileaks and Russia going after donor lists and releasing donor personal info. Like this was an attempt to dissuade people from donating to her campaign and Dems in general, seems oddly convenient no? Then we just learned they got into the voter analytics of the Clinton campaign, somewhere where the GOP says he doesn't have. Again this seems oddly specific to go after being a gig weakness of Trump's campaign. Pair that with the timing supposed to be to negatively effect the DNC before convention and it the whole thing seems very coordinated precisely to help with Trumps weaknesses.
Click to expand...

I don't follow. I agree Trump lacks good data on GOP voters, but how does Dem data help him?
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
B-Dubs said:
Good luck getting Congress to approve the spending for such a thing.

I should note there is a special system for classified information though.
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Republicans are always trying to increase the military budget, and that spending would likely trickle down to their donors anyways.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Grief.exe said:
The richest and most powerful country in the world, the government still uses Windows.

How are we not using some forked build of Linux focused on privacy and encryption? How are all emails and messages not using ete encryption?
Click to expand...

That doesn't help if someone breaks into the endpoint or a client machine, compromises it and captures your credentials. The system is weak at the point where you decrypt the data. In the case of the Clinton campaign hack, it appears they got access to the DNC voter analytics data, possibly the famous system a couple of Sanders IT team gained access to. If they had stolen database credentials, they could have exfiltrated the data regardless of whether it was encrypted at rest.
 
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