shinra-bansho
Member
Congress or Electoral College?
Why? Because that talking point has worked for literally everything Trump has done. "It's not illegal to do X" is kind of their thing now. It's how he's able to keep his business ties and no one gives a shit. Honestly at this point that's what I'd tell the team to lightly spread around. That way if/when it ever does come out the groundwork is laid for why it's not so bad anyway.
Congress or Electoral College?
I think most of Bernie's support centered on there being an incredibly weak field of candidates, and one establishment pick that was so distasteful to so many people. Bernie was the only alternative for people who didn't like Hillary, basically. In a better field (say for instance, if Biden had run) I don't believe his campaign would have "taken off" the way it did. While I do not think Biden would have won the nomination, I fully believe he would have won the Iowa caucus, with Hillary coming in second. Bernie coming in third right out the gate would have set a narrative that would last throughout, IMO.
Personally I just don't believe the Bernie "coalition" is as focused on anti-establishment/anti Wall St/anti money/etc as advertised. I'm sure you noticed how many hardcore Bernie fans here would often say they would have voted for Biden if he ran. I think this generally boils down to people not standing Hillary Clinton and wanting alternatives - everything else is a narrative created after that fact.
We'll see this in 2020, if Bernie runs. The field will be significantly better and Bernie will trot out the exact same tired campaign and puzzling decisions (like, you know, completely ignoring the south). It won't work. I'm sure a segment of hardcore Bernie fans will be outraged if say Booker or Harris becomes the nominee, but it won't matter. The good thing about 2020 is that none of the major candidates are as flawed as Hillary Clinton.
AVR is more beneficial towards presidential elections but where mail-ballots are really incredible is midterm turnout. Colorado, Oregon, and Washington all have way higher than average turnout after adopting mail ballots and I think Colorado's jump from 2010 to 2014 was something absurd like 10 points when they adopted it.
I think if the next Democratic president creates a Green New Deal and uses a lot of that money to transform Appalachia and restore their communities that it might have a chance after that.
I don't think pursuing it until Democrats can say they've delivered results there would ever work though.
It's only worked for Trump's fanbase. If the story becomes more definitively about collusion, then the death by a thousand cuts just becomes deeper on Trump.
So why did Obama think Biden would come in third in Iowa? People talk about presidential candidate diamond joe like he's the political equivalent of the fonz but I rewatch the debates in 2007 and it's like he's got the class of Jim Webb and the grace of Lincoln Chaffee.While I do not think Biden would have won the nomination, I fully believe he would have won the Iowa caucus, with Hillary coming in second. Bernie coming in third right out the gate would have set a narrative that would last throughout, IMO.
So why did Obama think Biden would come in third in Iowa? People talk about presidential candidate diamond joe like he's the political equivalent of the fonz but I rewatch the debates in 2007 and it's like the grace of Lincoln Chaffee meets the class of Jim Webb.
Is this retroactive momentum?I'm just saying at this point if the story doesn't result in [*snip*] him being voted out in 2018
Maybe the greatest political jab of all time. Which is why Scranton Joe was always destined to be the Scrappy veep.He'll always have "a noun, a verb and 9/11" though.
The politico article I'm referencing said he sat him down and told him he didn't want to end up third in Iowa behind Bernie Sanders. I don't think Obama lies to Joe. He's literally his best friend.I also think Obama genuinely wanted to see the first woman president after the first black president. Which is defensible. He got a little sentimental, maybe.
Is this retroactive momentum?
Aw man, because I was gonna say, if you have that shit figured out let's take it all the way back to '16typo lol
Aw man, because I was gonna say, if you have that shit figured out let's take it all the way back to '16
Considering Trump sunk into bouts of insanity with the first 2 public Comey hearings, I can't wait to see what happens with Comey's testimony next week.
Boehner Walks Back Criticism Of Trump Presidency As A Complete Disaster
He's not a complete disaster policy-wise, only when he tries to do stuff.
I've been thinking about this every now and then, and I'm still unsure of what the right play for them would be. Do you remove him as swiftly as possible to defuse the argument? It admits guilt and that can cost you. Do you hold firm? That can be a rallying cry for midterms with the very real statement that if the Dems take the House, impeachment happens.
All of this assumes some guilt is warranted but at this point, somebody's ass is going to jail.
Collusion isn't what's going to take him down, if anything does. It should take him down, but it won't because it's not illegal and only a political bomb. The GOP party is defense mode and this talking point is a way to distance themselves somewhat. Like you said ... they're laying the groundwork for when that bomb hits. There's a reason all the finCEN data is important though, and there's a reason mueller is brining on somone who specializes in this shit. If trump goes down it will be for some racketeering shit or money laundering shit that's related to the Russia collusion. It's just amazing to watch the GOP twist themselves into pretzel trying to hadwave away collusion with Russia.
So why did Obama think Biden would come in third in Iowa? People talk about presidential candidate diamond joe like he's the political equivalent of the fonz but I rewatch the debates in 2007 and it's like he's got the class of Jim Webb and the grace of Lincoln Chaffee.
I thought it was lower than Hawaii but I could be wrong.I thought that was Hawaii?
Hillary basically tried to say this was what she planned to do ( but in the worst way possible). Hopefully next time we get it done.I think if the next Democratic president creates a Green New Deal and uses a lot of that money to transform Appalachia and restore their communities that it might have a chance after that.
I don't think pursuing it until Democrats can say they've delivered results there would ever work though.
I would say both are doableCongress or Electoral College?
Lawrence O'Donnell's ouster all but official at this point:
http://www.showbiz411.com/2017/05/1...onnell-the-last-word-show-despite-top-ratings
I didn't like O'Donnell's show for apparently the same reasons they're letting him go. I felt like it was a little too over-the-top and too-preaching-to-the-choir, despite the fact that I agreed with everything he was saying. He had insightful though. I think a slightly toned-down show could have been great. Hopefully his replacement will be more Rachel/Chris, not Megyn/Greta.
Someone's boss got a stern talking to by people looking at another 3 years of no Democratic president.Update
Neil Jacobs‏ @NeilJacobs 30 minutes ago
BREAKING: It looks like @Lawrence has renewed his contract and will be staying on @MSNBC for the next couple of years! Congrats!
Lawrence O'Donnell @Lawrence 11 minutes ago
Yes I will be saying hi to Rachel @maddow at 10pm for the foreseeable future.
”If I wanted an easier path through the primary, then I would line up more with where the president is," he said. ”But I think if you're an elected official, you've got to do what you know what's right. It'll be a tougher path than I could have had, would have had, but I think I'll get there."
I don't think we should write off any state entirely in terms of fielding candidates and investing in organization. The 50 State Strategy makes a lot of sense for many reasons. It's better to spread out resources because you hit a point of diminishing returns fairly quickly in a single state/district, the map is constantly evolving and you want to have infrastructure in place to take advantage of opportunities that arise. Of course you make tactical decisions about where to focus more resources, but we need to invest a little everywhere.
That having been said, in the near term West Virginia looks like one of the toughest nuts to crack. It went for Romney by a huge margin and still managed to swing to Trump bigly. It's very rural and very white. It's hard to come up with an economic message more appealing there than bringing the coal jobs back (yes, it's a lie, but one people desperately want to believe). Again, I think we invest everywhere, but West Virginia is still going to be very tough going.
IAgain, I think we invest everywhere, but West Virginia is still going to be very tough going.
Maybe not in 2018. We only have to worry about defending Manchin's seat, and according to polls, his constituents like him. If we have a blue wave, he should be okay... provided the Bernie Wing refrains from primarying him with a far-left candidate completely incompatible with WV.
No she's divisive and turns folks away from the left. I feel the "Rich white lady" syndrome was part of the reason we had a poor voter turnout with various demographics. She gives off such a fake vibe, and makes even a rational mind think "if there is an Illuminati, she's in it."Why? This is the best HC appearance in the last 3 years. She's making sense, being honest, and looking at stuff from all angles.
I don't want her self-flagelating at every public appearance.... and if she's invited to speak; she can.
Given how the election turned out, she has the chance of becoming the most relevant loser of a presidential election in US history.
If they can take down Sessions, that would be so good.
I fear he, Flynn, and Page will be isolated in a box and scapegoated, but yeah, his removal would be a pretty huge victory. Although I could only imagine what kind of nut-job Donald would replace him with, one that was willing to take the job. Not even Christy is down for it at this point I think.I would feel very comfortable with Sessions gone.
It's not about "wanting him to go away", but you do see how he's playing it. He's not saying the shit Hillary is saying, he barely even talks about the election. He's much less divisive when it comes to this.You do realize that Obama is every bit as divisive as Hillary is for the base he's talking to, right?
So if your fear is him rallying the right, you should want both of them to go away.
For the record, I don't think Democrats can do anything right now to win West Virginia but rather that a real reinvestment to bring it back to life could maybe put it on the table in the future. I think doing a Green New Deal type program is good and needed anyways for all the country, not just WV, but decoupling the state from coal could change things.I don't think we should write off any state entirely in terms of fielding candidates and investing in organization. The 50 State Strategy makes a lot of sense for many reasons. It's better to spread out resources because you hit a point of diminishing returns fairly quickly in a single state/district, the map is constantly evolving and you want to have infrastructure in place to take advantage of opportunities that arise. Of course you make tactical decisions about where to focus more resources, but we need to invest a little everywhere.
That having been said, in the near term West Virginia looks like one of the toughest nuts to crack. It went for Romney by a huge margin and still managed to swing to Trump bigly. It's very rural and very white. It's hard to come up with an economic message more appealing there than bringing the coal jobs back (yes, it's a lie, but one people desperately want to believe). Again, I think we invest everywhere, but West Virginia is still going to be very tough going.
What's keeping you in WV?
Maybe not in 2018. We only have to worry about defending Manchin's seat, and according to polls, his constituents like him. If we have a blue wave, he should be okay... provided the Bernie Wing refrains from primarying him with a far-left candidate completely incompatible with WV.
I wish someone other than the NY Post had this, but I still think it's worth at least bringing up here If I get a better source I will make a thread:
NY Post: The government is spying on journalists to find leakers
This seems less than ideal.
No she's divisive and turns folks away from the left. I feel the "Rich white lady" syndrome was part of the reason we had a poor voter turnout with various demographics. She gives off such a fake vibe, and makes even a rational mind think "if there is an Illuminati, she's in it."
I fear he, Flynn, and Page will be isolated in a box and scapegoated, but yeah, his removal would be a pretty huge victory. Although I could only imagine what kind of nut-job Donald would replace him with, one that was willing to take the job. Not even Christy is down for it at this point I think.
It's not about "wanting him to go away", but you do see how he's playing it. He's not saying the shit Hillary is saying, he barely even talks about the election. He's much less divisive when it comes to this.
He's just not as divisive period. He seems genuine, she seems forced.
The 50 state strategy I theoretically agree with, says that we don't need to win in WV right away but we need to get people there used to a political presence besides just the GOP. I'm not sure of the efficacy of that but I'd like to think it will work :/
Well, West Virginia has a Democratic senator and governor. The issue is coal, the first Democratic nominee they went hard against relative to the nation was Gore. It even stuck with Carter (4.5 point victory while Reagan won by 9) and Dukakis (5 point victory while Bush won by 7) when they got blown out basically everywhere. They're still fine with Democrats who like coal, it's just that we can't really like coal anymore because the planet is going to die.The 50 state strategy I theoretically agree with, says that we don't need to win in WV right away but we need to get people there used to a political presence besides just the GOP. I'm not sure of the efficacy of that but I'd like to think it will work :/
No she's divisive and turns folks away from the left. I feel the "Rich white lady" syndrome was part of the reason we had a poor voter turnout with various demographics. She gives off such a fake vibe, and makes even a rational mind think "if there is an Illuminati, she's in it."
Well, West Virginia has a Democratic senator and governor. The issue is coal, the first Democratic nominee they went hard against relative to the nation was Gore. It even stuck with Carter (4.5 point victory while Reagan won by 9) and Dukakis (5 point victory while Bush won by 7) when they got blown out basically everywhere. They're still fine with Democrats who like coal, it's just that we can't really like coal anymore because the planet is going to die.
The 50 state strategy I theoretically agree with, says that we don't need to win in WV right away but we need to get people there used to a political presence besides just the GOP. I'm not sure of the efficacy of that but I'd like to think it will work :/
Yeah, I get all that, which is why I'm saying it should be written off until coal is decoupled from the state's prosperity.Well that history is based off it being a union state and that no longer matters. And there's no rational way to save the coal industry, Republicans can lie there asses off on that point in a way that Democrats can't.
Rational minds wouldn't think that. Rational minds would probably realize that she seems a bit 'fake' since she's spent decades not allowed to be herself in the public eye. You dont really fit the image we have created for the governors wife in Arkansas, was a real thing said to her decades ago.
It's not about "wanting him to go away", but you do see how he's playing it. He's not saying the shit Hillary is saying, he barely even talks about the election. He's much less divisive when it comes to this.
He's just not as divisive period. He seems genuine, she seems forced.
Nick Short @PoliticalShort
House Intel committee has subpoenaed NSA, FBI & CIA for info on unmasking requests made by Rice, Brennan, Power
No she's divisive and turns folks away from the left. I feel the "Rich white lady" syndrome was part of the reason we had a poor voter turnout with various demographics. She gives off such a fake vibe, and makes even a rational mind think "if there is an Illuminati, she's in it."
I feel the "Rich white lady" syndrome was part of the reason we had a poor voter turnout with various demographics
By the time Hillary Clinton entered the 2016 race, the GOP had already tied several weights around her ankles. The right had been given two decades to paint the former First Lady as a soulless schemer whose professional ambitions were an affront to traditional families, and a threat to the republic's survival — and eight years to brand Obama's preferred successor as a corrupt self-dealer, whose illegal use of a private email server had jeopardized national security and/or killed our boys in Benghazi.
Republicans are getting a jump on Elizabeth Warren's 2020 presidential campaign. The Massachusetts Democrat is preparing to run for re-election to the Senate in 2018 and hasn't said yet whether she'll challenge President Donald Trump for the White House. But in-state and national Republican officials have decided to target the liberal icon anyway, saying they will try to inflict enough damage during the Senate race to harm any future presidential effort — and perhaps dissuade her from running altogether.
...”We learned from our experience with Secretary (Hillary) Clinton that when you start earlier, the narratives have more time to sink in and resonate with the electorate," said Colin Reed, executive director at the Republican outside group America Rising.
Would any of the political historians here be so kind as to answer a question for me? I love to rag on the Media's Moderate Darlings (who truly aren't), but I've always been fascinated by Murkowski's win back in 2010. That year was the Bonfire of the Moderate Darlings, Democratic and Republican, but somehow she managed to win a write-in campaign against the Tea Party candidate. Was it her family connections? Her fetish for drilling? I see she lost her primary narrowly. Did the voters just realize they'd made a mistake? On paper she should've been gone and looked as though she would be until the eleventh-hour comeback.
Sorry to derail a bit, but I just love quirky elections like that one.
Regardless of the viability of doing so, it's the only home many of its residents have ever known. It's easy to look from the outside and say someone should consider moving to somewhere they might have better prospects, but when that person's family has been living in the same place for generations, it can be hard to imagine living anywhere else.
I'm not criticizing, just curious. I'm such in a somewhat rural town in FL myself due to family. My moms health is poor, and I can't see leaving her yet.
It's infuriating when you hear so much about states rights, when you have first hand knowledge that changing states is not often an option.