PoliGAF Interim Thread of 2008 Early Voting (THE FINAL COUNTDOWN: T MINUS 2 DAYS)

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syllogism said:
The movement from +4% to +6% is within MoE
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Err, if the poll is currently at +6% for Obama, and the MoE is at +/- 3%, then that means it could be a +9% Obama lead or a +3% Obama lead.

Not "it could be a +1% Obama or a +7% for Obama."

Pro-Tip to the media: If a poll comes out and has a 9% of undecideds two days before the election, then the poll is most likely bullshit and you should ignore it.
 
A few months ago someone posted a chart showing that despite the progressive income tax, if you take all taxes into consideration, including state and payroll taxes, the top 1% pay a lesser tax rate than the middle class. Does anyone still have this? I need it for an argument, but my searches have come up empty.
 
Listen to Chris Rock at Tampa Obama rally

"When you go to somebody for help you want somebody who can relate to what you have to say. Like if I have problems getting laid, I wouldn't call Brad Pitt cuz he wouldn't know what I was talking about."

He joked that on Halloween, he took his kids trick-or-treating to all of Sen. John McCain's houses. "There was way too many houses," he said, as the crowd laughed. "...McCain was on MTV's Cribs 15 times. This is not the guy you want to be president."

"McCain probably had financial problems too, but we can't all do what he did. We can't all dump our first wife, marry a rich one and have all our bills paid."

On getting out the vote: "Get your retarded uncle. Get him to vote. Anybody you know with an arm, bring him down."
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Keeps it more real than anybody.
 
Mandark said:
Amen.

"We need a bigger echo chamber!" No, boys, you don't.
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Is the American Conservative considered a Republican blog or just a conservative blog?

AC seems much more intelligent and well defined in its conservative roots than NextRight (it seems Next Right just wants to be the next kos or HuffPo):
http://www.amconmag.com/blog/

Other than that, I'll have to give more plug to the Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/bloggers.mhtml

With Andrew Sullivan being my favorite blogger.
 
Phoenix said:
Friday afternoon waiting in line for 3.5 hours to cast my early vote. It was ridiculous how slow the process was. I can't believe that with all this technology it takes so damn long to vote.
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Took 1.5 hours for me six days ago. Of course my county reverted back to paper ballot because people were pissed that they didn't get a printed receipt from the electronic voting booths. But the paper ballots are scanned in by a computer that *gasp* doesn't give a printed receipt. :lol
 
We know Obama has Iowa and New Mexico locked up. He would have to lose all of the pure toss-ups and either Pennsylvania alone or both Virginia AND Colorado in order for McCain to win. That is simply not happening.
 
Arde5643 said:
Other than that, I'll have to give more plug to the Atlantic: http://www.theatlantic.com/bloggers.mhtml
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The Atlantic conservatives / Grand New Party crowd are pretty awesome, but also completely detached from their party. They might even have some foresight, but it will be a long time before they become any more relevant than an interesting read to people who hope the GOP becomes considerably more moderate (that is, me)
 
Obama people visited my parents house THREE TIMES this weekend to remind them where to vote and to hand them endless Obama pamphlets. In a non-swing state at that (MI).

crazy...
 
masud said:
Damn Ben Aflek killed it.

http://www.watchfreeepisodes.com/ben-affleck-keith-olbermann-snl-video-watch-ben-affleck-as-keith-olbermann-on-saturday-night-live/4318/
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Meh, way too OTT. I've been watching Olbermann pretty regularly for the past 3-4 months, so unless this is referencing older material from him, it doesn't seem like a particularly smart caricature. Almost like they're not really trying to make fun of Keith but instead making fun of those who claim he's extreme left to the point of hypocrisy.
 
NeoGAF is like the Obama HQ of the online gaming world, and yet McCain is spending money to run ads here. I LOVE IT. :lol

Might wanna think about that the next time you get pissed. It's like being at an Obama campaign office and seeing a McCain person paying to put up a tiny ad amongst a plethora of pro-Obama crap.
 
GhaleonEB said:
The same applies to Virginia.
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Not entirely. McCain can lose Virginia if he wins Pennsylvania.

However, if Obama gets both Pennsylvania and Virginia, it's virtually over. If Obama wins both states, McCain would have to win Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and then either take Iowa or New Hampshire.
 
Due to the great generosity of a few men, I'm here for Obamaton on Tuesday!

Many thanks, buddy.

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.
 
ZealousD said:
Not entirely. McCain can lose Virginia if he wins Pennsylvania.

However, if Obama gets both Pennsylvania and Virginia, it's virtually over. If Obama wins both states, McCain would have to win Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and then either take Iowa or New Hampshire.
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If McCain loses Virginia, his path is very, very, very narrow. That was my point.
 
I've been thinking, do you think they take ads out because of the number of clicks (No idea how many they are) the banners get from this site? because if anyone from the campaign saw how we viewed them they'd surely shut it down. He's been advertising here since "Hillarycare".
 
kaching said:
Meh, way too OTT. I've been watching Olbermann pretty regularly for the past 3-4 months, so unless this is referencing older material from him, it doesn't seem like a particularly smart caricature. Almost like they're not really trying to make fun of Keith but instead making fun of those who claim he's extreme left to the point of hypocrisy.
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The real problem with the sketch is that both of his "guests" disagreed with him. Olbermann's guests rarely disagree with him, and even when they do it's on very small stuff.
 
Even if you live in an uncompetitive state, you should still show up to vote for your senators and representatives as well as any propositions like Prop 8 in CA.
 
polyh3dron said:
Even if you live in an uncompetitive state, you should still show up to vote for your senators and representatives as well as any propositions like Prop 8 in CA.
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Support Prop 8???
 
StopMakingSense said:
At least you non-Californians aren't getting exposed to all the Protect Marriage ads I'm seeing.
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Every time I see a Yes on 8 bumper sticker or yard sign that say "Protect Marriage" I try my best to resist the desire to ask them what the fuck is going through their head and what difference taking away someone else's rights would make in their life.

Makes me want to get in physical fights and shit.
 
Diablos said:
NeoGAF is like the Obama HQ of the online gaming world, and yet McCain is spending money to run ads here. I LOVE IT. :lol

Might wanna think about that the next time you get pissed. It's like being at an Obama campaign office and seeing a McCain person paying to put up a tiny ad amongst a plethora of pro-Obama crap.
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He spends money on Google Ads, GAF uses Google Ads. It's not a direct thing.
 
polyh3dron said:
He spends money on Google Ads, GAF uses Google Ads. It's not a direct thing.
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It's close enough! I'm sure the McCain people could make sure that their ads weren't shown here if they've read these threads :D
 
So I got in line for the Cincinnati rally at 4pm. Right now there must be at least 500 people in line. Obama doesn't get here till 9.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
Yikes. Supposively, young voter turnout is small in Florida.
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Not surprised. FL is going to probably come down to the hispanic vote and what direction it goes, as well as the independent vote.
 
I'm tempted to register an account at Rapture Ready and troll the daylights out of them, but I should try to be a mature adult instead. :D
 
Diablos said:
Not surprised. FL is going to probably come down to the hispanic vote and what direction it goes, as well as the independent vote.
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I'm not either, sadly.

If anything, the youth are going to be slackers and wait for the actual day. It's hard enough to vote between classes, especially when turn out is like it is. Weekends and Election Day are probably going to be even worse for students.
 
Jason's Ultimatum said:
Yikes. Supposively, young voter turnout is small in Florida.
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The massive lines for early voting probably don't attract a lot of the youth. The upside is the huge early voting will make lines shorter on election day, which could help.

Another 300,000 voted yesterday in Florida; 53.8% of 2004's final vote is alread in.

Party ID so far:

Code: 
Party	2008	2004
Dem	45.5%	40.7%
Rep	37.6%	43.5%
		
No/Oth	16.9%	15.8%
That's a 10.7% swing from 2004 to 2008 when comparing the Dem to Rep share. And with such a huge share of the electorate already in, McCain is sandbagged pretty far.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
 
random thought:

it's kind of interesting how Republicans in power have generally been the party of "government is bad! government is trying to take my guns/money/faith from me! government is wasteful!"

but as soon as someone says government is bad/wasteful/inefficient when it comes to foreign policy, all of a sudden it's "you hate the troops! how dare you criticize America? Why do you hate this country? If you don't like it you can leave!"

I guess that's a result of the larger point about how government spending is sooo horrible yet a bloated defense budget is ok. I wonder where that whole mindset came from. Maybe it's some sort of backlash from the civil rights movements in the 60's and the anti-Vietnam sentiment? We shouldn't give money to those "other people" and defend our country from those "other people"? Other people being gays/women/blacks/communists/immigrants/etc.
 
Dax01 said:
wat
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Context is everything. The Mason-Dixon polls pushed them to that status, but the MD polls also showed movment for Obama since the last time they took them. Looking at averages (which is all RCP is) without context is pretty dumb.
 
glistenm said:
I'm starting to believe the hypnosis angle more and more each day.
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He's telling people that he wants to move this country in a new direction, away from the complete trainwreck from 8 years of Republican rule (and don't give me the Dem congress bullshit, all they've been able to do is impede the Republicans a bit).

If that's hypnotism in your book, then so be it.
 
polyh3dron said:
He's telling people that he wants to move this country in a new direction, away from the complete trainwreck from 8 years of Republican rule (and don't give me the Dem congress bullshit, all they've been able to do is impede the Republicans a bit).

If that's hypnotism in your book, then so be it.
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It is. How can you people be so simple-minded?
 
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