PoliGAF Interim Thread of 2008 Early Voting (THE FINAL COUNTDOWN: T MINUS 2 DAYS)
- Thread starter Amir0x
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kkaabboomm
Member
making sure other people besides the late-night crowd see this.kkaabboomm said:by popular, pent up demand:
THE 538 PACMAN GIF
from Aug31 through Nov1
dear John McCain/Drudge/EVERYONE: OMG LOOK AT THE TIGHTENING
this is the election, from conventions through (just about) election day. look at it, bask in it, share it far and wide, and remember, obamaigotthis.gif
this one isn't nearly as data-complete, it's missing a lot of maps from inside september, but the general flow of things is still visibleIksenpets said:If you could do the electoral map, that would be awesome!
Plinko said:
You should do exactly that, then, via Intrade. The market there has McCain at 30% for Florida, 20% for Ohio. You could triple and quintuple your money, if you're right.
For the record, I think Obama will win both, mainly through his superior ground game.
Stoney Mason
Banned
Tamanon said:
Insert Kerry reference about being a flip-flopper and before it before he was against it.
Gruco said:
Eh that one's just cognitive dissonance. It's possible, since the buying up of mortgages is already in place in the bailout, just not being exercised. So that spending is already "accounted" for. His whole campaign is based around messages that constantly run counter to each other, it's weird.
Stoney Mason
Banned
On a personal note last night during SNL was the closest I've come to feeling sympathy for the man. I don't since he's run a nasty campaign and picked a fool as his VP but it was still a moment to note how far he had changed from the affable McCain that the media fell in love with to the asshole that emerged on the campaign trail.
Atomic said:
Eh, in two more days, that whole relationship is going to explode as blame starts being tossed. McCain is going to get thrown under the bus with a fucking passion by the GOP stalwarts. You'll hear the arguments that they picked someone who was too centrist, and not a true conservative.:lol
Gruco said:
Yeah. I wasn't trying to downplay any of the current conflicts or dangers. There are millions of people in Congo, Sudan, Kashmir, and elsewhere who would punch me in the face for lecturing them on how safe and stable the world is.
But compared to the brinksmanship of the Cold War and the chaotic violence following the third world independence movements it's a much less scary world to live in.
If the government reacts smartly and sanely to potential threats and doesn't demagogue them, we should get to a point where Americans don't worry evil foreigners sold to them as comic book villains. You know, how we spent the 90's.
I think 9/11 masked the fundamental trends in US politics for about six years, in more than one way.
Stoney Mason
Banned
Tamanon said:
Yep.
The Librarian
Banned
The only time I've felt sorry for McCain was during the second debate when he was being asked a question and he had to write down the stuff on his pad in order to remember it all.Stoney Mason said:
typhonsentra
Banned
I don't think the base will be so willing to throw Palin under the bus alongside him though. From their side the scorn will largely focus on John and she'll be painted as the victim of malpractice on the part of her "handlers".
MaddenNFL64
Member
So, about the "Bradley Effect"
What was the differential between Tom Bradley & his opponent in the last polls before the '82 election? What was the MoE of these polls?
I've heard & read about "double digit leads", but was that true in final polling?
What was the differential between Tom Bradley & his opponent in the last polls before the '82 election? What was the MoE of these polls?
I've heard & read about "double digit leads", but was that true in final polling?
Stoney Mason
Banned
typhonsentra said:
Oh yes. I didn't mean Palin. McCain is the one who will be painted as the ultimate failure. Sadly this always occurs with whoever loses the race but McCain will especially be painted as some sort of phony Republican while Palin is the heart and soul of the party despite whatever exit polling and general polling will say about her.
Stoney Mason
Banned
agrajag said:
Those people have no pull in the party and never did (or at least haven't since the early 70's). They only think they do.
EDIT: And the funny thing is those people are only against her because the plan backfired and she started to cost them votes. Most of them would have gone alone with the program if things had turned out better.
MaddenNFL64
Member
That's where my thoughts were. Nate Silver has said any "Effect" is minimal today, now that crime, affirmative action, and welfare aren't the wedge issues they were back then, and I agree. BUT I also think those issues had little to do with Bradley's loss in '82. Just reading on it, 3rd parties & bad late campaigning screwed him more than anything.
From the Baltimore Sun:
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/politics/bal-te.election02nov02,0,7724450.story
Aaron Strife
Banned
The Librarian
Banned
Bob Dole's campaign?:lolhc2 said:
Father_Brain
Banned
Stoney Mason said:
The wingnut true believers are already calling for the heads of Parker, Frum, Noonan, and Will, among others - and these are mostly staunch conservatives, who are still voting for McCain anyway. I find it hilarious, especially when in the next breath they accuse Obama of Stalinist tactics.
Jason's Ultimatum
Member
gallup:
Obama: 52
McCain: 41
LV Expanded:
Obama: 52
McCain: 43 +1
LV Traditional:
Obama: 51 -1
McCain: 43 +1
Obama: 52
McCain: 41
LV Expanded:
Obama: 52
McCain: 43 +1
LV Traditional:
Obama: 51 -1
McCain: 43 +1
Stoney Mason
Banned
hc2 said:
Rove is generally pretty good with his projections and numbers. People like to bring up 2006 and the "his math stuff" but you almost always have to discount what people say late in a campaign when they are losing. Democrat or Republican. They have to lie to keep hope alive. There is no other choice.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
Lemonz said:
Washington Journal is still on. Will they just cut away from that when it starts?
For anyone interested in learning about grounded conservative reactions to the current situations, thenextright.com is an excellent site. It's probably the most honest, genuine, non-crazy conservative web site I've ever seen. True believers, but also well aware of their actual problems. I definitely plan on following this for a while. Here's a good post on the "victim of own success" issue. I wonder how much of a response I'd get if I started highlighting and asking them how they plan on addressing some of the other problems.
http://www.thenextright.com/sean-oxendine/the-price-of-victory
http://www.thenextright.com/sean-oxendine/the-price-of-victory
Stoney Mason
Banned
Deku said:
What does it matter. In two days all polling and all projections are moot anyway.
Saint Gregory
Member
Why has MSNBC been using the Mason-Dixon poll in their broadcasts lately? Do they have an agreement with them or are they just using them because they have the battlegrounds so close and that makes for better TV?
By the way, does anything think this election would be different if instead of crazy angry grandma McCain, we got the candidate who:
- Was responsible for campaign finance reform
- Stood up to Bush on tax cuts
- Pushed for comprehensive immigrant reform
- Brought the first carbon cap bill to the senate floor
- Is BFF with independent democrat Joe Lieberman
Saint Gregory
Member
Gruco said:
It would have been awesome if we got that candidate. What was his name again?
The Librarian
Banned
And if it doesn't, we can just blame The Lamonster.Fox318 said:
Gruco: I actually started reading The Next Right a couple days ago, since I've been giddy at the prospect of navel-gazing and recriminations from the right after this election.
They're saner than the Malkin wing of the party, but they're still pretty delusional.
They're saner than the Malkin wing of the party, but they're still pretty delusional.
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