Steve Youngblood said:I'm going to respond from a different angle. I'm slightly perplexed as to where your numbers are coming from. I completely understand that you think civil unions passing now can delay the movement for marriage, but I'm not quite sure why you believe that a rejection of civil unions now will lead to marriage in that timeframe.
Well, first, the time frame I was speaking of were just number, estimates in my own view. The reason I made them so drastic was because I believe major social shifts require an impetus behind them, a driving force like public sentiment. If you give us civil unions at the federal level and you have a President proclaiming this is equality it removes a good deal of the pressure on a majority of states (I'm thinking of Hawaii, of Rhode Island, of Oregon, of Washington, etc) that may at some point be inclined to consider gay marriage. They'd have the federal government and President Obama to point to and say that civil unions are equality.
Now, the other end of that, and the reason why it would eventually change (but maybe not for a while) is that some states (such as we saw in California and Massachusetts) give greater protection based on gender. In those cases a handful of states WILL be required to have gay marriage and that will inherently place a bit of pressure on other states nearby and ideologically inclined to do so to grant gay marriage. Still, with civil unions firmly entrenched it's a much different and more difficult argument to make. even if it doesn't take 40 years i don't see it taking less than 20 (assume for a moment Obama gets re-elected, that's 8 years lost, if we get a conservative Republican after that they wouldn't necessarily be inclined to support gay marriage, they'd have a statistically good shot at 2 terms... yeah, at least 20 years to get the public angry enough, 40 is more reasonable)
First of all, this isn't a strike negotiation. It's not like a rejection of Obama will be interpreted by all as a rejection of this poor compromise. I don't think that there will be news stories discussing the election day results of a McCain victory with an analysis about how this was due to the gay community standing strong and preferring marriage or nothing. Second of all, with McCain at the helm, explain to me how this might not just lead to it being 10 years before even civil unions are back on the table?
I don't view a rejection of Obama as a rejection of second class relationships either. That's just one of the effects that will happen. However, with McCain ensconced in the whitehouse with a Democratic congress there WILL be no FMA and essentially no change at the federal level. Meanwhile, more states will mobilize, and I think it's only a matter of time before a state (possibly Rhode Island or Washington, maybe even NY if the legislature loses a few of it's Republicans) is inclined to LEGISLATIVELY enact gay marriage. That will cause a major shift in public attitudes and thinking on the subject. Once it's been done once it'll be easier to do again. I just don't see the same push with Obama as President supporting civil unions and opposing gay marriage, the states that might be inclined to do so will be more likely to knuckle under to Obama and support his policy and explicitly enact civil unions for us.