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[disabledHeliocentric]

If Sony's hardware is way more powerful that might offset the early launch because the Japanese development community has done quite magnificent things to trick out the ps2 and I'd bet those developers, the capcom Squeenix konami etc types will have a bonanza with the new visual capabilities, just a guess, but that might be the difference there between gee it looks like my PC game and gee it looks like a miracle.

You simply can't predict how this will play out.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Every GTA is or will be available on the XBOX.

MGS 2 is available on XBOX.

The creator of the Final Fantasy seriees works for MS

But if the game has "Final Fantasy" in the title followed by Roman numerals, and it's on the PS3, then it will sell millions. Even if it's a shit sandwich.

 

[JoDark]

I want new HW this year. PDZ... the thought of GE style MP online is too much to take!!! Something tells me that many of us are in this boat.

Europe will be the most interesting. If MS ships there THIS YEAR, and really keeps up with with the virtually sim launches... While Sony fucks europe with a 9++ month wait for the PSP. Sure, Sony cares about Europe, whatever.

Sakaguchi, Okamoto, Mizaguchi... and you can expect that Itagaki will still give his killer support... This won't win Japan, but it will help MS do better there this gen, and bring more fans of Japanese games to the 360 in the west.

Mistwalker RPG's, Bioware RPG's, Oblivian, another Fable... nice RPG's covered for me!

A new madden.

MGS is still a great series, but it is showing it's age. I want to play more, but may not be sprinting out to get the HW I need to play this.

Forza looks fucking kick ass. This combined with PGR and Live. I liked GT4. I LOVED GT1 and 2... If Forza lives up to what it seems it will be, next gen, MS will completely own the racing genre. Rallysport 3, PGR4, and Forza 2. OH YEA!!!

Sony can't be whipped, but freaking hell, the 360 is lining up to be a monster. I know I will get PS3, but... I feel that from holidyay '05-launch of the PS3, MS is going to build up a HUGE momentum.

As for the Rev, whatever. I will have it. It will be a gimmick to play Nintendo's games, and then back in the closet it will go. Kick ass fun I am sure, but Nintendo has become a non-entity in the Sony vs. MS fight imho.

 

[Izzy]

My god, all this speculation is getting tiresome. Wait for the Spaceworld.

 

[sly]

Oh no! I'm dissapointed in you Sonycowboy!!! Where's our April NPD prediction thread?

 

[gofreak]

Sony's holding most of the cards right now. It's really theirs to lose.

MS will make an AWFUL lot of noise from E3 onwards. X360 will be everywhere. It'll be impressive. They'll have a good launch.

Sony will make an AWFUL lot of noise at E3 too. Expect them to present a fairly all-encompassing vision of home entertainment with PS3.

In the heel of the hunt, I see MS doing a good bit better next gen, but Sony will still be clearly on top.

Technically (and I am a techwhore, so I like to talk about these things), I see PS3 with the advantage, and I think that advantage may be accentuated at this E3 by typically sumptuous Namco/Square/Konami demos/game footage when put against most X360 games running on unfinished hardware (though in fariness, PS3 won't have finished hardware either). MGS4 on PS3 will probably become the most persuasive argument in the aftermath of E3 of PS3 > X360, technically.

 

[gogogow]

MGS is still a great series, but it is showing it's age. I want to play more, but may not be sprinting out to get the HW I need to play this.
.

MGS3 doesn't look as impressive as it should be. Maybe it's the PS2's limitations, it got a overhead camera viewpoint. Which makes things "less" impressive for some (most notable at E3 shows and the sales, not as much hype as MGS2 or Halo 2) as compared to FPS or 3rd person views like Halo2 and GTA:SA. But all in all it's impressive and got the best graphics PS2 has to offer. People who played the game till the end knows it (gameplay-wise, story-wise and graphics-wise).

Without Kojima I hope his team will still shakes things up at E3 with MGS4 like MGS2 a few years ago (E3 2k).

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I'm not so sure that public cares all that much about MGS now. Yeah, it has production values and overall design stomp that Splinter Cell, but has lost steam to SC in the stealth category. If they decided to dump the overhead viewpoint, it could reinvigorate the main gameplay for most...me included.

 

[gogogow]

I don't think it's only about the stealth department, cos MGS3 is much more stealth than the previous ones imo.
It's also about the graphics for sure. MGS3 doesn't have normalmaps, bumpmaps, per pixel lighting, shadowmaps and foremost the 3rd person view etc. Not that I care about this, but the mainstream gamer will pick the game that have the better looks.
Don't u think RE4 will be less impressive or not impressive at all if it had a overhead view?

But with PS3 all this will change for the MGS series and Kojima promised that the next MGS will have a different viewpoint.

 

[soundwave05]

Sony's holding most of the cards right now. It's really theirs to lose.

MS will make an AWFUL lot of noise from E3 onwards. X360 will be everywhere. It'll be impressive. They'll have a good launch.

Sony will make an AWFUL lot of noise at E3 too. Expect them to present a fairly all-encompassing vision of home entertainment with PS3.

In the heel of the hunt, I see MS doing a good bit better next gen, but Sony will still be clearly on top.

Technically (and I am a techwhore, so I like to talk about these things), I see PS3 with the advantage, and I think that advantage may be accentuated at this E3 by typically sumptuous Namco/Square/Konami demos/game footage when put against most X360 games running on unfinished hardware (though in fariness, PS3 won't have finished hardware either). MGS4 on PS3 will probably become the most persuasive argument in the aftermath of E3 of PS3 > X360, technically.

Agreed 100%.

Expect some kind of near-photorealistic Gran Turismo demo from Sony as well ... now whether that'll be "misleading" or not is almost irrelevant -- the press will go nuts.

I think they may show footage from Insomniac's FPS title as well.

 

[Cold-Steel]

I expect Sony to show tech demos that will blow the 360 out of the water.

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

 

[soundwave05]

I expect Sony to show tech demos that will blow the 360 out of the water.

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

If it works ... you can't blame them.

But actually the PS2 did match some of those tech demos, it just took a while.

I think they may even do something as crazy as showing Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within or CGI sequences from Spider-Man 2 (the movie) running in "real time" on the PS3 hardware with some manipulating the camera angles using a PS3 controller.

 

[SolidSnakex]

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

You mean the trick that causes haters to constantly say PS2 games don't match their demos even though they've long outdone them? Yah that'll likely happen again.

 

[tsp_gatmog]

My 2 Cents:

M$ is decreasing Xbox production to rev up Xbox360 production.

M$ is clearly shooting themselves in the foot, as all they are doing is loosing money this gen, but are even increasing the damage, profit wise for:

a. underproduction of a current system that already looses them money
b. a next gen system thats going to loose them even MORE money


sorry if that sounds really sloppy, i just woke up.

 

[Elios83]

I expect Sony to show tech demos that will blow the 360 out of the water.

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

Are you sure of this?
Do you really remember the tech demos showed by Sony at the PS2 presentation?

 

[gogogow]

There was this PS2 tech demo thread where a lot of members pretty much agreed that the actual games surpassed the tech demos.

The only one who's done that "Trick" is M$ themselves with their robot CG demo.

 

[soundwave05]

If they show something like Star Wars Episode III running in "real time" on the CELL, the press will go batshit crazy.

Newsweek will put Kutaragi's turd on its cover.

 

[tsp_gatmog]

no, ps3 is no doubt going to be >>> than the competition

Nintendo could care less if they're more powerful. Sony has time to change their specs, after seeing what 360 can do. Not that 360 is going to be more powerful at E3..

 

[MightyHedgehog]

My 2 Cents:

M$ is decreasing Xbox production to rev up Xbox360 production.

M$ is clearly shooting themselves in the foot, as all they are doing is loosing money this gen, but are even increasing the damage, profit wise for:

a. underproduction of a current system that already looses them money
b. a next gen system thats going to loose them even MORE money


sorry if that sounds really sloppy, i just woke up.

Go back to $leep. You clearly need it.

 

[bitwise]

My 2 Cents:

thats about all it was worth, at least you were honest

 

[tsp_gatmog]

well, it is a fact that xbox production has been decreased, if thats what youre referring to

 

[gofreak]

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

I'm glad you brought this up, because I've been meaning to say this at some point before E3:

I just know that immediately after Sony shows the PS3 demos and game footage etc. some people will automatically try and write them off by invoking supposedly misleading PS2 demos. Let's get this straight right now: the original PS2 demos were not misleading and looking at the games that have come out over the PS2's lifespan, they were right on the money and in fact, in some cases conservative. They were all realtime on PS2 hardware, which is more than can be said for some of their competitors' tech demos.

On a different note, there's also another thing people should bear in mind when comparing X360 and PS3 technically after their unveilings..there's a chance X360's claimed theoretical peaks, on the graphics side, will be bigger than PS3's. Just know that their benchmark numbers won't be directly comparable, and that comparison likely won't be reflected in the real world. I'll explain my reasoning on this if anyone cares...

 

[soundwave05]

I'd like to see a "God of War 2" teaser myself (probably something short).

 

[soundwave05]

I'm glad you brought this up, because I've been meaning to say this at some point before E3:

I just know that immediately after Sony shows the PS3 demos and game footage etc. some people will automatically try and write them off by invoking supposedly misleading PS2 demos. Let's get this straight right now: the original PS2 demos were not misleading and looking at the games that have come out over the PS2's lifespan, they were right on the money and in fact, in some cases conservative. They were all realtime on PS2 hardware, which is more than can be said for some of their competitors' tech demos.

On a different note, there's also another thing people should bear in mind when comparing X360 and PS3 technically after their unveilings..there's a chance X360's claimed theortetical peaks, on the graphics side, will be bigger than PS3's. Just know that their benchmark numbers won't be directly comparable. I'll explain my reasoning on this if anyone cares...

No one cares about that stuff. They'll just see the big numbers on the spec sheet and the tech demos ... really that's what happens with these system unveilings.

That's exactly what happened with the PS2 unveiling, and it sent every Dreamcast fan scrambling to post Shenmue pictures.

 

[Dr_Cogent]

There is so little known between both camps that this thread is - ahem - stupid.

 

[gofreak]

I think they may even do something as crazy as showing Final Fantasy: The Spirits Within or CGI sequences from Spider-Man 2 (the movie) running in "real time" on the PS3 hardware with some manipulating the camera angles using a PS3 controller.

I've actually been thinking the same thing. In some of the Cell presentations IBM et all discussed the merging of movie and game content creation, so I could imagine them throwing CG assets from a movie into a realtime demo and make it look as close as possible to the real thing. They did this with the GSCube (FF, Antz) - with compromises to make them realtime - so it'd be interesting to compare how PS3 handles a demo like that, and if it'd get closer

No one cares about that stuff. They'll just see the big numbers on the spec sheet and the tech demos ... really that's what happens with these system unveilings.

That's exactly what happened with the PS2 unveiling, and it sent every Dreamcast fan scrambling to post Shenmue pictures.

There's more to it now than there was before, though. Let's just say thanks to unified shaders, X360's GPU will benchmark very well Need a polygon count? oh, let's just set all our shaders working on vertices! Need pixel fillrate? Oh, let's just switch them all to pixels, and there's your number! The GPU can be made to work in its entirity on whatever spec MS needs a big number for. It'll be even more misleading than the theoretical peaks of before, and won't make it comparable to PS3's numbers, if Sony goes with a vertex and pixel shading GPU. Sony's system could (and probably will) be more powerful, but there are many options open to MS to make their numbers bigger..and I'm sure they'll be shameless about it in order to counter PS3 hype. Of course, if Sony puts vertex shading on the CPU and leaves the GPU to do pixel processing alone, their peaks will be more comparable (bigger too, probably, and much more achievable than MS's).

 

[PhatSaqs]

Prepare for screenshot wars like never before....

 

[gogogow]

No one cares about that stuff. They'll just see the big numbers on the spec sheet and the tech demos ... really that's what happens with these system unveilings.

That's exactly what happened with the PS2 unveiling, and it sent every Dreamcast fan scrambling to post Shenmue pictures.

True, that's why those people in those game-stores tells u that the GC can render 6-12M polygons, Xbox 150M and PS2 60M.

 

[ziran]

i used to think ms would definitely take a huge share next gen, with the split between the two being 50-50, xbox360 bigger in the west and ps3 bigger in japan. i.e. sony would have some real competition.

but then i heard j allard's gdc speech...

now i think ms will probably end up with a similar market share to now, bit more maybe.

with costs so high and so much at stake i think devs will stick with a 'go with what you know' strategy.

 

[Scrow]

Prepare for screenshot wars like never before....

what's the point when they're doctored? video wars are better.

True, that's why those people in those game-stores tells u that the GC can render 6-12M polygons, Xbox 150M and PS2 60M.

shit xbox is powerful... i wish i got one. silly me, i got a gamecube and it's the LEAST powerful.

 

[gofreak]

what's the point when they're doctored? video wars are better.

Indeed We're in broadbanded 2005, not 56k 1999!

Although we can't embed videos in GAF posts Saying "see the subsurface scattering in frame 2764 of this video? it's much better than that other game's!!1" isn't quite the same Screenshots will still have their place (i look forward to much scrolling back and forth and up and down with hi-def next-gen screenshots ).

 

[sol5377]

I don't think the graphical differences will be noticable at all between the PS3 and Xbox360, especially when comparing the 5 best looking 360 games with the 5 best looking PS3 games (whenever the PS3 is released). I think it will come down more to the actual developers of the games rather than the hardware the games are on that determines which games look better.

 

[MightyHedgehog]

I agree.

 

[DSN2K]

what console will have the best visuals ? depends on which platform Konami works on the most

 

[Dr_Cogent]

what console will have the best visuals ? depends on which platform Konami works on the most

:lol

ummmm - no

 

[sonycowboy]

I expect Sony to show tech demos that will blow the 360 out of the water.

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

Casting aside you're "trick" comment, I think E3 will NOT be the place that Sony lays it all on the line to really combat Microsoft and the Xbox360. They may make lots of claims regarding a power advantage and show some incredible non-interactive demos, but make no mistake, this is Microsoft's E3 to lose. They should essentially have the next gen stage to themselves in a practical way.

I am almost positive that after E3, based on what is revealed, Microsoft will look incredible and Sony will still be tight lipped about a great many issues. I mean you'll see over 20 incredibly gorgeoous Xbox360 games, the console itself, a feature list a mile long, and many will be playable. Tech Demos will not be able to counter that from a hype standpoint.

That will lead many to declare Microsoft the victor although that proclamation would be quite premature although completely understandable.

 

[Crankenstein]

I expect Sony to show tech demos that will blow the 360 out of the water.

I also expect those tech demos to not even come close to representing what will be real-time performance on the PS3.

They've done this trick before to one of their competitors, I expect them to do it again.

Everybody will do it now. The field will be leveled. Whoever gets the team that did the opening for Onimusha 3 to do the tech demos will win.

 

[Crankenstein]

Prepare for screenshot wars like never before....

I'm 56k. Crankenstein am cry.

 

[sprsk]

I'm here to pick up chicks.

i love games

 

[Crankenstein]

what console will have the best visuals ? depends on which platform Konami works on the most

Rare, Team Ninja, Retro, Capcom>> Konami

 

[SolidSnakex]

Rare, Team Ninja, Retro, Capcom>> Konami

Capcom's the only one thats competed with Konami seriously on a platform (PS2) this gen, and they consistantly get their asses schooled on it too.

 

[gofreak]

Casting aside you're "trick" comment, I think E3 will NOT be the place that Sony lays it all on the line to really combat Microsoft and the Xbox360. They may make lots of claims regarding a power advantage and show some incredible non-interactive demos, but make no mistake, this is Microsoft's E3 to lose. They should essentially have the next gen stage to themselves in a practical way.

I am almost positive that after E3, based on what is revealed, Microsoft will look incredible and Sony will still be tight lipped about a great many issues. I mean you'll see over 20 incredibly gorgeoous Xbox360 games, the console itself, a feature list a mile long, and many will be playable. Tech Demos will not be able to counter that from a hype standpoint.

That will lead many to declare Microsoft the victor although that proclamation would be quite premature although completely understandable.

Tend to agree, although I think it'll have a greater presence than say, the first PS2 debut. Something tells me we'll get game announcements and even footage for some, unlike the first PS2 announcement which was "just" tech demos and demos from "unconfirmed but you know they're coming" games. I'm thinking that because of the news of Koei showing off a PS3 game, MGS4 probably being shown on PS3, the appearance of "next-gen Sony" alongside "next-gen Xbox" on certain developer's release lists (like DICE's) etc - I think some publishers will be ready to make announcements.

So I'm guessing we'll get something between the first PS2 debut and its first TGS in terms of info/media.

 

[Shig]

360's headstart is gonna be the turning point. When 360 hits, consumers are going to see games doing things they've never seen before and be wowed, whereas when PS3 hits, it won't have that impact because there's already something comparable on the market.

360 will have big holiday sales, and all the press (read: lots of free advertising) that goes with it. PS3 will do great, no doubt, but it's not hitting in such a big buying season. It won't have as much awareness at launch.

The headstart is hardly negligable, like some seem to think. You don't overcome a competitor that has a 6+ month lead right away. It's going to take at least that much time to win it back, probably more. By the time PS3 hits, MS will have had time to refine and possibly step up production of 360, which is a big point for holiday '06 because during a holiday season, whoever makes the most systems sells the most systems. 360 will enjoy a good run of next-gen market leader for a while, regardless of how well Sony's launch goes.

Which brings us to the games; who is going to NOT bring games to the market leader? MS will get ports of anything that's not signed-in-blood exclusive to Sony, and they will get some pretty heavy exclusives of their own, having the lead (temporary as it may be percieved to turn out, a lead is a lead) and being more equipped to throw money around. MS will have an exclusive to match every exclusive Sony dishes out. They may not be notable franchises like GT and FF, but they'll be promising, varied, and plentiful enough to get people hyped and justify buying systems. Even if MS drops behind Sony eventually, the gap will be much too close for 3rd parties to justify not bringing games to 360.

The financial factor could really be where Sony gets pounded. The company is already bruised and beaten in that respect, and now they're going to be putting out not 1, but 2 pieces of hardware simultaneously that lose money on every unit made. And they'll be pushing them out at a frantic pace to combat the competition, PS3 attempting to win back what ground 360 gained on top of what it'll be selling concurrently, PSP combatting the strong holiday sales of the DS... it's really the last thing the company needs now, two money sinkholes running full steam. They're not going to have a lot of money to play around with as far as enticing 3rd parties into signing exclusives goes, and you better believe MS is going to take full advantage of that.

I don't think MS has much chance in the Japanese market, but if they're running a good ship here in the US, Japanese devs will still have to support the system. You simply cannott ignore putting games on a system that's running near 50% market share in the in the world's biggest market. And since they'll have to port the games to 360 anyway because of our market, they'll have a strong Japanese lineup and do better there. Still well behind Sony, but a notable increase.

Europe will follow the US. Partially because of the worldwide release of 360. Most companies have been treating the EU market like an afterthought, they'll be appreciative of someone throwing them a bone and finally treating them as equals.

I really don't see any way for Sony to blow this race wide open like they did this gen. Competition's gonna be tooth and nail... I can't wait. *pops some popcorn*

 

[PhatSaqs]

The launch lineup is gonna be really important IMO. Provided that MS has a downright awesome as all hell launch lineup (that means little if ANY BS like Mad Dash Racing, Dark Summit, NightCaster, Cel Damage, etc.) I dont see how they can screw up the early advantage.

 

[Razoric]

Good post Shig.

Love the predictions so far. A lot of the PS3 people seem to be the same ones that were saying the PSP would make DS a stillborn handheld. Doesnt look that way now does it? :lol

 

[Ramirez]

Joe Madden

This shit made me LOL for real...you do know the guy's name is John, right Speevy?

 

[thorns]

The launch lineup is gonna be really important IMO. Provided that MS has a downright awesome as all hell launch lineup (that means little if ANY BS like Mad Dash Racing, Dark Summit, NightCaster, Cel Damage, etc.) I dont see how they can screw up the early advantage.

I wouldn't worry about that. MS has learned a lot about what kind of games have big impact and what kind of games don't. I'll be disappointed if they don't come up with the most spectactular launch (and near-launch) lineup ever.

Being first to market is very tough, but pulling it off well (i.e. with very solid third party support and lot of "must-have" exclusives) ensures continued success.

 

[sonycowboy]

The launch lineup is gonna be really important IMO. Provided that MS has a downright awesome as all hell launch lineup (that means little if ANY BS like Mad Dash Racing, Dark Summit, NightCaster, Cel Damage, etc.) I dont see how they can screw up the early advantage.

Dreamcast truly had an awesome early advantage with a killer lineup, but it didn't help it and cash reserves was only a part of thier failure. I know some Xbox fans don't like to hear that, but there are other issues to consider.

You do have to accept that the performance issues, the BC, the multimedia, the exclusives, andthe fact that Sony is the market leader by a HUGGGE margin might just have an impact on how things turn out. Just as you consider the advantages the XBox has (listed in my first post). Ignoring them doesn't make them go away.

 

[human5892]

360's headstart is gonna be the turning point. When 360 hits, consumers are going to see games doing things they've never seen before and be wowed, whereas when PS3 hits, it won't have that impact because there's already something comparable on the market.

360 will have big holiday sales, and all the press (read: lots of free advertising) that goes with it. PS3 will do great, no doubt, but it's not hitting in such a big buying season. It won't have as much awareness at launch.

The headstart is hardly negligable, like some seem to think. You don't overcome a competitor that has a 6+ month lead right away. It's going to take at least that much time to win it back, probably more. By the time PS3 hits, MS will have had time to refine and possibly step up production of 360, which is a big point for holiday '06 because during a holiday season, whoever makes the most systems sells the most systems. 360 will enjoy a good run of next-gen market leader for a while, regardless of how well Sony's launch goes.

Not that I place much stock in the 360=Dreamcast 2 theory, but your post up to this point could be completely applied to the Dreamcast.

Remember, early PS2 games looked roughly on par to DC software at that point, the DC had already had a huge head start including a holiday season, etc. None of it mattered once the PS2 hit.

Again, let me stress that I'm not predicting doom for the 360, but I don't think you can necessarily point to an early launch and the "gee-whiz graphics!" factor as keys to the 360's success. The software library of both machines, Sony's hyping, and the size of the technical difference between the two are of far greater importance IMO.

 

[PhatSaqs]

Dreamcast truly had an awesome early advantage with a killer lineup, but it didn't help it and cash reserves was only a part of thier failure. I know some Xbox fans don't like to hear that, but there are other issues to consider.

The DC comparisons just dont fly for me for reasons that have been pointed out over, and over again. And of course there'll be other things that come into play that influence the overall picture (which have been discussed elsewhere already). But that clearly wasnt the scope of my post.