Alx
Member
Yeah the "loi Macron" was in 2014-2015. There were demonstrations too, but then in France there always are.
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Pro-EU Macron surges in French election polls
- Thread starter Spiritwalker
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Yeah the "loi Macron" was in 2014-2015. There were demonstrations too, but then in France there always are.
Palette Swap
Member
To be fair, pretty much everyone would be kicking the can forward. Fillon, Macron and whoever the socialists pick will conform to that and probably won't answer whatever the FN voters are angry about. Meanwhile Le Pen or Mélenchon will probably create crises of their own making and drastically change the face of the EU.
That three out of these five candidates are friendly to Putin is sobering.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
I'm not going to mince words: I think America's IC should share whatever dirt they have about Trump with the Council of the European Union (if vetted) just so they grow a spine and avoid being blackmailed/understand the risks posed by Trump's administration. Nothing good ever comes from partnering with Putin. You think he's doing you a favour, but in reality he owns you.
But that may amount to treason, so I'm not holding my breath.
dapperbandit
Banned
So I am. Is there any perceived association between this and Macron?
Alx
Member
Not really, Macron is associated to his own law, which raised issues with liberal professions like lawyers, dentists, solicitors etc. But then it was two years ago and people have short memory.
He could do a good job attracting Republican voters who are disenchanted with Fillon's views on abortion and gay marriage. Question is if it'd be enough to tumble Fillon to third place. Fillon v Le Pen would be a tough one if Le Pen goes all out on preserving the welfare state that Fillon wants to tear down, despite Le Pen's horribleness. Macron v Le Pen would be an absolute blowout.
Stumpokapow
listen to the mad man
I find it hard to believe that another candidate has a chance of getting around the two round system. Suppose he grabs 80% of the SP. And suppose he grabs some of the LR vote, say 20%? Then he still doesn't make it to the second round, which continues to be LR versus FN. He only cracks the second round if he grabs all the socialist vote AND most of the LR vote. I just don't see it, really.
Well, support for Fillon could crumble, as his Social Security reform plans have scared a lot of people. Plus, Macron could also tap in Le Pen's electorate : he also embodies a new way of doing politics, as opposed to the main two parties.
GhostTrick
Banned
The problem is, even if the Socialist Party rallied behind him (not happening), there's not a single chance Mélenchon, which is currently at the same level as he is, join him. Basically, the second turn will be Right vs Extreme Right unfortunately. And considering the Right picked the most right candidate... welp
I don't see that happening considering he's like the opposite of Le Pen. Le Pen's electorate isn't about new ways of doing politics (heck, her party has been here for a long time and she basically inherited it from her father), it's either about working class/anti-EU or conservatist right wing even racists.
On the economics side, Macron is liberal while she is for more intervention from the state and less Europe. On the social side, Macron is at the left. Even though he didn't expressed much on that side, he never expressed right views, rather left ones, being opposed to the loss of nationality for people having dual citizenship.
Would be absolutely bizarre if another candidate from the left became president after 5 years of Hollande and his socialists who seem to be pretty much universally hated at the moment. My guess would be that the pendulum definitely swings right, but not far enough for Le Pen. So my bets are on Fillon.
Palette Swap
Member
Qualitatively, I'd argue voter turnout is a pretty big variable too, and I guess it's part of his approach: on top of siphoning off votes left (from the most centrist wing of the SP), center (Modem is still ~5% while UDI has to actually coalesce behind Fillon), and right (all the LR moderate voters who don't care for Fillon), he looks like he's trying to get to vote people who wouldn't. I know that's a marketer's answer, looking for untapped sources, but this looks like his best path right now.
Mind you, his (really) long shot right now is cracking that second round ceiling. In a run off, he looks actually more competitive than Fillon.
Can't find it right now but a recent poll gave him quite a good popularity among FN voters, I even think he was higher than Fillon
GhostTrick
Banned
Palette Swap
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There's this article that mentions the blue collar vote, but it's nothing to write home about. According to a poll he's second to Le Pen, with 13-17% to her 50%.
Actually no, someone in this thread posted the current state of polls in France, which shows exactly what Macron needs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
Basically he needs Valls to lose the primary on the left and Bayrou (the candidate from the center) to give up, or even rally behind him. If that happens, then he's basically tied with le Pen and slightly behind Fillon. Then again these polls are pre-primary and no one knows what might happen after the left chooses a candidate.
Chuckie
Member
Well yes....Wilders was already talking about a Nexit (Netherlands Exit) since the Brexit
Mass_Pincup
Banned
Really happy to see Hamon leading the charge.
I hope he's going to be the PS candidate.
I hope he's going to be the PS candidate.
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
I hope France, Germany and Netherlands vote and do the right thing.
Would be hilarious if only the US and the UK decided to be idiots.
Would be hilarious if only the US and the UK decided to be idiots.
Happy to see Hamon win aswell (and now Valls is likely to lose). He's the only one to propose a vision for the French socialists in that primary imo (plus he generally seems like a pleasant guy, much more than Valls and Montebourg)
(and let's be honest, I'm also happy because a "true leftist" for the PS is a good thing for Macron)
(and let's be honest, I'm also happy because a "true leftist" for the PS is a good thing for Macron)
Alx
Member
Yeah if Hamon wins Macron will benefit a lot. Hamon himself might take some votes from Mélenchon but will probably not reach second round. And that leaves a huge void in the center for Macron to take.(Unless Bayrou announces a surprise candidacy )
Big loser could be LePen too. Strong Macron and Fillon may jeopardize her access to the second round (which would be great).
)Big loser could be LePen too. Strong Macron and Fillon may jeopardize her access to the second round (which would be great).
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
The proper term for Frexit is: Eurovoir.
I made that.
I made that.
Netherlands seems to be a lost cause at this point unfortunately.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Hah! That's pretty great
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
Palette Swap
Member
Both are really good, although I'd rather never see the day we actually have to use either.
……forgetit
Member
Don't make the same mistake we did French GAF, don't believe the polls.
Palette Swap
Member
I thought you guys just wanted to get Poles off your island?
victreeb3l
Member
Really ? I thought Wilders wouldn't be able to form a governing coalition
-Plasma Reus-
Service guarantees member status
oh my god.
that's pretty good.
QuicheFontaine
Member
Not really feeling "fruckoff" but the rest are good.
Macron is definitely a new head for old ideas, he has the same words as Tony Blair or Schröder, people that are praised by right-wing parties because they moved their parties to the center and the center-right.
He holds the center ground in France thanks to a very conservative Fillon, the absence of someone to carry François Hollande's legacy and a new face.
I'll give him that he can move people and get them interested in his project (although it's non existent 3 months before the election), but he's just neoliberalism with a pretty face and very good storytelling. He'll continue the same polciies as Sarkozy or Hollande. Behind the "hope", tomorrow's defeats to nationalists are hidden because the public policies he carry will destroy our societies and create poor individuals.
We need that kind of guy (or woman!!) to lead the charge for the left with the same platform that Sanders or Iglesias have. Mélenchon is trying to do that but he's an "old face" that has his own legacy to carry. His campaign is amazing so far though, he's one of the first politicans ever to use for the best a YouTube channel (weekly press reviews, taking Twitter questions...).
Both the left and right-wing primaries were won by people that were 3rd in the polls for a long time and then, thanks to their coherence and platform, were ahead.
Last polls showed the trend though
Well the candidate of the French Socialist Party (it says socialist but they are on the same page as Clinton tbh) will probably be 5th for the general election, so people didn't vote and being in power for 5 years doesn't help getting your electorate to vote (see Clinton too)
He holds the center ground in France thanks to a very conservative Fillon, the absence of someone to carry François Hollande's legacy and a new face.
I'll give him that he can move people and get them interested in his project (although it's non existent 3 months before the election), but he's just neoliberalism with a pretty face and very good storytelling. He'll continue the same polciies as Sarkozy or Hollande. Behind the "hope", tomorrow's defeats to nationalists are hidden because the public policies he carry will destroy our societies and create poor individuals.
We need that kind of guy (or woman!!) to lead the charge for the left with the same platform that Sanders or Iglesias have. Mélenchon is trying to do that but he's an "old face" that has his own legacy to carry. His campaign is amazing so far though, he's one of the first politicans ever to use for the best a YouTube channel (weekly press reviews, taking Twitter questions...).
Both the left and right-wing primaries were won by people that were 3rd in the polls for a long time and then, thanks to their coherence and platform, were ahead.
Last polls showed the trend though
Well the candidate of the French Socialist Party (it says socialist but they are on the same page as Clinton tbh) will probably be 5th for the general election, so people didn't vote and being in power for 5 years doesn't help getting your electorate to vote (see Clinton too)
Jezbollah
Member
Cheers Coffinhal
……forgetit
Member
Damn it, mispelled it. Also I'm American. It sure who got the worst end of the stick this year, but don't let it happen to you France.
Funky Papa
FUNK-Y-PPA-4
You should provide some context for those out of the loop.
Another filthy immigrant sucking from the states' teat!But also for Le Pen.
But also for Le Pen.
Le Pen is probably a safe bet for the second round anyhow, so it'll ultimately come down to who challenges her, Fillon or Macron.
If Penelopegate helps Macron pull ahead of Fillon, he'd actually do slightly better in the second round against Le Pen than Fillon based on current polling: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opini...idential_election,_2017#Fillon.E2.80.93Le_Pen
Gurgelhals
Member
Maybe I'm getting ahead of myself, but wouldn't a potential Macron presidency (or, for that matter, any non-Socialist or non-Republicains presidency) be fairly constrained from the start because it would just lead to another cohabitation government?
I know that the system was reformed recently to make cohabitation governments less likely. Still, isn't it practically a given that it's still going to be one of the two major parties that will have a majority in the National Assembly? Is Macron even fielding candidates for the legislative elections and/or does he even have a shot there?
I know that the system was reformed recently to make cohabitation governments less likely. Still, isn't it practically a given that it's still going to be one of the two major parties that will have a majority in the National Assembly? Is Macron even fielding candidates for the legislative elections and/or does he even have a shot there?
Hey man, Macron sounds like the better choice to me. I just hope he will win against Le Pen in the second round that's all.
Will this be the "emails???" equivalent in the likely Pen vs Fillion matchup?
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