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Pro-EU Macron surges in French election polls

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Alx

Member
Will this be the "emails???" equivalent in the likely Pen vs Fillion matchup?

Not likely. It's a story pushed by the press (as they should), but I don't think any of the candidates would want to start inquiries for abusive remunerations, since it would be like opening Pandora's box.
 

-Plasma Reus-

Service guarantees member status
Regarding Dutch elections:
Geert Wilders has been at the top of the polls. But recent polling has him going down some points. The thing about him is that none of the major parties will work with him to form a government, even Rutte, likely to be second if not first (if lucky), has very recently said the chances of forming a government with Wilders is '0% percent' in his words. So even if he wins, he will likely not be able to form a government.
 

Juicy Bob

Member
I will be sure to cast my illegal ballot for him.

Seriously though, good luck France. I really hope you guys provide an island of hope in this sea of shit we and the US have created.
 
A pro EU independent popular with the young? Sounds like they've got their own version of Sanders over there. Sounds a bit too good to be true.
 

addik

Member
A pro EU independent popular with the young? Sounds like they've got their own version of Sanders over there. Sounds a bit too good to be true.
If I read correctly, he's more of a Clinton. He's essentially a centrist candidate that could push the left-leaning electorate to vote for him if he makes it to the second round.
 

Vhalyar

Member
Considering the main options are the stain named Marine Le Pen and the Putin dick-sucker François Fillon? I'm on Macron's side.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Joke politician confirmed.
tbh he stands mostly on the center-right on economic issues (i. e. pro-free market stance, which isn't that common in French politics) but also defends social liberalism, immigration and welfare. In the US he'd clearly be a democrat but in France, neither left nor right is accurate.
 
If I read correctly, he's more of a Clinton. He's essentially a centrist candidate that could push the left-leaning electorate to vote for him if he makes it to the second round.
If I were French I'd take whoever I can get so long as they're Pro EU.
 

Alx

Member
If I were French I'd take whoever I can get so long as they're Pro EU.

That's basically my stance. Any economic and social policy may have its rights and wrongs that can be fixed later. But destroying EU is for ever. Fortunately most candidates are pro-EU.

Read up on Macron. If you think he's like Sanders you're un fou.

Yeah I guess Mélenchon would be the closest to Sanders' phenomenon. Also far left, popular with the young (and also a bit old :p), but not really pro EU.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Yeah I guess Mélenchon would be the closest to Sanders' phenomenon. Also far left, popular with the young (and also a bit old :p), but not really pro EU.
More like Hamon, I'd say. Close to Méluche but without the authoritarism.
 

Ether_Snake

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So will Trump's recent actions i spire the French to vote for LePen, or do the opposite?

I would assume the later. but who knows. A lot can happen until then. If the EU looks like it will collapse by then then the French will out.
 

Alx

Member
There's no particular reason the EU would "look like it will collapse" in the coming months, and in any case it wouldn't depend on what Trump says or does.
 

Ether_Snake

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There's no particular reason the EU would "look like it will collapse" in the coming months, and in any case it wouldn't depend on what Trump says or does.

Except if the US/Russia go to war in Syria/Iraq and maybe Iran. A bigger refugee crisis while anti-refugee policies are promoted by the US and UK governments, fueling more political discord in Europe. Yes that could lead to a collapse of the union.
 
Except if the US/Russia go to war in Syria/Iraq and maybe Iran. A bigger refugee crisis while anti-refugee policies are promoted by the US and UK governments, fueling more political discord in Europe. Yes that could lead to a collapse of the union.

You have been predicting the end of the EU for years here on gaf. Whatever happens it seems it will be the cause for the end of the EU in your head
 

Alx

Member
So FrenchGAF, realistically, how are his chances?

Decent, but he's still the outsider. He has two things going for him right now : best dynamics among the candidates, and current favorite Fillon has a small scandal going on for hiring his wife and kids for potentially "fake" jobs. But he's still behind in polls (latest polls for first round were around 25% for Fillon & Le Pen, 20% for Macron)
Things can change a lot in three months, but if Fillon falls then Macron becomes favorite (and before anybody asks, yes Macron should easily win against Le Pen, he's actually rating higher against her than Fillon).
 

G.O.O.

Member
So FrenchGAF, realistically, how are his chances?
Both Le Pen and Fillon being under investigation at the moment, it all depends on his ability to make it to the second round right now. If he does, he becomes the favourite. Remember that both Fillon and Hamon were the third man in polls before their primaries (polls being different for the general election but still).

Things can still happen though. The "real" campaign only starts tomorrow, with the socialist candidate officially on tracks, and Macron probably won't unveil his program until February.
 
It's not happening guys. Every time we have a surge of the center to mysteriously collapse on Election Day. Last time Bayrou this time Macron. A centrist millionaire who is pro immigration and worked for Rothschild, went to elite high school, yadda yadda.
He is a decent guy but the optics on this are not good for him.
 

Alx

Member
Well usually such candidates burst their bubble before the election indeed, but this time it's more open than it's ever been. Voters usually abandon outsiders for "safe" candidates at the last minute, except that we don't have many of them this time, what with the Fillon story and the PS in disarray.
Macron still has a long way to go to strengthen his position, though. A lot may change once he'll start detailing his official program.
 

stilgar

Member
So FrenchGAF, realistically, how are his chances?

He's got no party behind him. In France, it's a death sentence if you're not Charles de Gaulle.

His only (very real) chance would be the following : a second round against Marine Le Pen.
Given the recent Fillon scandal, and the fact that Hamon is way too much on the left side for a lot of the moderate voters, it's not an unlikely scenario.

In this case, there would be a sort of national union granting him sufficient support.
 

darkace

Banned
It certainly would be fascinating if France of all places elected a pro-globalization, pro-market and pro-immigrant candidate in this day and age.

France needs that exact candidate. Macron can save france from awful policies enacted by a string of terrible leftist governments while warding off the idiotic far right.

If france fails to elect macron, its pretty much guaranteed to continue its decades long stagnation.
 
Someone needs to make a French election OT.
Especially since there is currently quite a lot of damaging news regarding Le Pen's biggest rival, Fillon.
 
He would be amazing for the EU as a whole. Part of its image problem is old and bland politicians who are set in their ways. Having someone relatively young and charismatic like this talking up the potential strengths of the EU and the ways France can work to improve it... that's something a lot of Europeans would be happy to see.
 

G.O.O.

Member
Someone needs to make a French election OT.
Especially since there is currently quite a lot of damaging news regarding Le Pen's biggest rival, Fillon.
Le Pen is facing bad news too, only difference is that she's not the favourite. Only news I can find about it are in French.

http://www.lefigaro.fr/elections/pr...arine-le-pen-sommee-de-payer-340000-euros.php

If we get a Le Pen - Mélenchon second round however it'll be time to panic (right now, it's HIGHLY unlikely)
 

G.ZZZ

Member
It certainly would be fascinating if France of all places elected a pro-globalization, pro-market and pro-immigrant candidate in this day and age.

Pro-market and pro-globalization in France would still be much in favor of social system and redistribution.

We need to end the injustice of all the economic growth going to the 1% and the lower classes getting it worse and worse while being told that either everyone is going better than ever or that it's the fault of immigrants (the far right).
 

darkace

Banned
Pro-market and pro-globalization in France would still be much in favor of social system and redistribution.

We need to end the injustice of all the economic growth going to the 1% and the lower classes getting it worse and worse while being told that either everyone is going better than ever or that it's the fault of immigrants (the far right).

Another macron supporter!
 
It's not happening guys. Every time we have a surge of the center to mysteriously collapse on Election Day. Last time Bayrou this time Macron. A centrist millionaire who is pro immigration and worked for Rothschild, went to elite high school, yadda yadda.
He is a decent guy but the optics on this are not good for him.
This is an accurate assessment IMO. There's still the novelty of his candidacy and the character, but I expect all this to wither away by the first round. As much as I'd like to see him over Fillon or Le Pen, I'm expecting major shit to be slung his way over the next few months. It's both in Le Pen's and Fillon's best interests to keep him down, as they offer each other their best shot at the presidency.

Pro-market and pro-globalization in France would still be much in favor of social system and redistribution.

We need to end the injustice of all the economic growth going to the 1% and the lower classes getting it worse and worse while being told that either everyone is going better than ever or that it's the fault of immigrants (the far right).
That's the very narrow path a social liberal would have to walk today: manage to demonstrate that your open approach would mean better redistribution, would benefit actual people and would address their current anxieties.
I don't know that this path exists, but I'd love to see it. If only because what we really lack now are positive political projects. I'm so tired of everyone being mad at everyone else while we regress.
 

stilgar

Member
It's rare but it happens. Giscard got elected in a very similar situation.

There are similarities, but it's not quite the same : he had the Republicains Independants, and more importantly, was supported by a large part of the UDR behind Jacques Chirac.
 

Pacbois

Member
I'm not super pumped about this, Macron is perhaps a good example of unrestricted neo-liberalism that will continue to sink lower and middle classes. However it does feels nice to see that the FN does not have a commanding lead. Sadly since last year I'm more and more sceptical about polls being accurate with a lot of far-right voices not being heard in the population.

Yes, our 2 round system will be a strong bloc against Le Pen, so her being elected is still quite unlikely but the FN needs to be destroyed not only in the polls but also in the public opinion, we need to show that not only it's a racist/fascist party but most of her platform would be a disaster for the country.

I'm actually more scared of Fillon though. If the nightmare scenario of a Le Pen wins happen, a FN majority at the legislative election will be even harder to get, so she might be a president with limited power and possibly a govt from an other party. However in case of a Fillion win, it's very likely that he'll get a majority in the parliament and will be able to pass everything with almost no hurdles, like gutting the whole public service and healthcare.

I'm feeling super down on this election anyway. I would really like to see Hamon win the socialist primary and just going full on "bernie" but like many people say, he's way too left-wing for most of France right now. But who knows.
But yeah I'm glad I'll be moving to Canada right before this shitshow and hopefully find a way to stay there.
 

Alx

Member
Yes, our 2 round system will be a strong bloc against Le Pen, so her being elected is still quite unlikely but the FN needs to be destroyed not only in the polls but also in the public opinion, we need to show that not only it's a racist/fascist party but most of her platform would be a disaster for the country.

Well "fortunately" our anglo-saxon future-ex-allies may offer a good way to show precisely that. UK will be a good example of what being anti-EU implies, and the US will show what happens when you try to "kick out all the Muslims".
 

MonsieurPaul

Neo Member
What's concerning me is that Le Pen has full support from Putin.

Now that Fillion is in difficulty, I do hope that we won't have last minute scandal about Macron.
 
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