Support NeoGAF

[Stumpokapow]

In honour of tomorrow's release, here's a little puzzle to get everyone warmed up:

"I was buying some presents for an old friend I hadn't seen in ages whom I was about to visit. I knew that my friend had 2 children, and I remembered that one of them was a boy, but I couldn't remember what the other one was. My good friend, Professor smartypants, who was with me offered some sage advice."

Did Professor smarty pants say:

1. The other child is most likely another boy
2. Chances are the other child is a girl
3. There's a 50/50 chane that the other child is either gender

Possible child configurations:
BB <-- could be this, other kid is boy
BG <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GB <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GG <-- could not be this because one of them is a boy.

Two in three chance it's a girl.

It's a Monty Hall style freakonomics counterintuitive thing.

 

[Winnie the Pimp]

Ok, so for all Euro chaps in here i will ask again:

- Is this game DSi ENHANCED in any way meaning we could NOT import this?

- What's up with that different Luke voice someone mentioned?

The US versions get different voice actors? i didn't know that???

 

[Prophet Steve]

Possible child configurations:
BB <-- could be this, other kid is boy
BG <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GB <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GG <-- could not be this because one of them is a boy.

Two in three chance it's a girl.

It's a Monty Hall style freakonomics counterintuitive thing.

I don't think this works.

What you are saying with BG is first kid is a boy, second kid is a girl.
And with GB first kid girl, second kid boy.

Since you already know one of the kids one of those possibilities isn't possible.

 

[JeTmAn81]

Possible child configurations:
BB <-- could be this, other kid is boy
BG <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GB <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GG <-- could not be this because one of them is a boy.

Two in three chance it's a girl.

It's a Monty Hall style freakonomics counterintuitive thing.

Considering the two children as a combination, then yes there's a larger probability that there will be a girl in there. But considering the other child as an individual probability, the chances of gender for them is based on birth rates, which are about 50/50.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't think this works.

What you are saying with BG is first kid is a boy, second kid is a girl.
And with GB first kid girl, second kid boy.

Since you already know one of the kids one of those possibilities isn't possible.

Err, no. Use your brain.

There are four possible configurations. Let me make the labeling easier for you:
Older Boy, Younger Girl
Older Girl, Younger Boy
Older Boy, Younger Boy
Older Girl, Younger Girl.

We know at least one child is a boy, meaning the last possibility is not possible because there is not at least one boy:
Older Boy, Younger Girl
Older Girl, Younger Boy
Older Boy, Younger Boy

In all three possibilities, one kid (or more) is a boy. We have not been told if we're sure the older kid is a boy. If we know the older kid was a boy, the younger kid would have a 50% chance of being a girl because the probability would be independent. We just know a kid is a boy.

Of those possibilities, two out of three of them involve the other kid being a girl.

Considering the two children as a combination, then yes there's a larger probability that there will be a girl in there. But considering the other child as an individual probability, the chances of gender for them is based on birth rates, which are about 50/50.

We aren't considering the other child as an individual probability. Because we aren't told WHICH child is a boy, just that A child is a boy. Again, this is the same issue that's occurring in the Monty Hall problem, where most people get it wrong because they assume the probability is independent, when it's not.

 

[JeTmAn81]

Err, no. Use your brain.

There are four possible configurations. Let me make the labeling easier for you:
Older Boy, Younger Girl
Older Girl, Younger Boy
Older Boy, Younger Boy
Older Girl, Younger Girl.

We know at least one child is a boy, meaning the last possibility is not possible because there is not at least one boy:
Older Boy, Younger Girl
Older Girl, Younger Boy
Older Boy, Younger Boy

In all three possibilities, one kid (or more) is a boy. We have not been told if we're sure the older kid is a boy. If we know the older kid was a boy, the younger kid would have a 50% chance of being a girl because the probability would be independent. We just know a kid is a boy.

Of those possibilities, two out of three of them involve the other kid being a girl.



We aren't considering the other child as an individual probability. Because we aren't told WHICH child is a boy, just that A child is a boy. Again, this is the same issue that's occurring in the Monty Hall problem, where most people get it wrong because they assume the probability is independent, when it's not.

I still think it is independent, actually. There's a difference between the probability for one child alone and the probability of the two children as a set. The gender of the second child is independent of the gender of the first. When that kid was born, it was still 50/50 whether it would be a boy or a girl. If you were predicting the genders of both children before either were born, that's when I would say you have to consider the combined probability.

 

[colinp]

I still think it is independent, actually. There's a difference between the probability for one child alone and the probability of the two children as a set. The gender of the second child is independent of the gender of the first. When that kid was born, it was still 50/50 whether it would be a boy or a girl. If you were predicting the genders of both children before either were born, that's when I would say you have to consider the combined probability.

There is a 100% percent chance it will be either a boy or a girl.

 

[Clott]

I never had a DS until I bought my 3DS a few months ago, since then I have caught up to some things I have always wanted to play, like the Phoenix Wright games. I am so glad I got to experience those games, and in the right order, it makes them so much better.

Are these games the same way? do they take a long time to get through? and should they be played in order?

 

[marjo]

Possible child configurations:
BB <-- could be this, other kid is boy
BG <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GB <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GG <-- could not be this because one of them is a boy.

Two in three chance it's a girl.

It's a Monty Hall style freakonomics counterintuitive thing.

Well done, this is absolutely correct.

If I had said the first is a boy, or the second is a boy, then the chance of the other being either a boy or a girl would have been 50/50. But saying that one is a boy makes the chance of the other being a girl 2/3.

It really is counter intuitive as most people with a basic understand of probabilities misapply the principals of independent events in this case.

For those of you that still have a hard time believing this, think of it this way. You are twice as likely to have one child of each gender then you are of having two boys (because there are twice as many combinations that produce that outcome).


Here's another way of putting it that gets people even more confused:

If I were to flip two identical pennies in secret, and show you that one of them was heads, there would be a 2/3 chance that the other was tails (for the same reasons as the problem above). However, if one the pennies had a mark on it, and you saw that mark when I revealed that it was heads, the chances of the other being tails is now 50%.

When presented with this, most people think it sounds ridiculous. How can the fact that there is a mark on one penny change the odds of what the other can be?

The answer of course, is that it can't. What has changed, in a subtle way, is the question. In the second example, the question is reduced to simply, "what was the result on the penny without the mark", which is clearly 50/50, completely independent of what happened to the one with the mark. In the first case, the question can be thought of "what are the chances he got 2 heads"?

In the second case, we have complete information about one of the coins, but none about the other, whereas in the first example we have some information about the combination of the coins.

Like I said, very unintuitive.

 

[sorijealut]

so glad nintendo is releasing this on DS for NA.
I've played through every one so far!

 

[Boney]

 

[Fantastical]

Wait, what is NoA striking back with? An add on Animal Crossing-lite Layton RPG versus 3 fullfledge JRPG's, one of which is considered one of the best JRPG's this gen?

The fact that Europe didn't bring it over.

I'm pretty excited about the Layton RPG even if it is shallow. I like those types of games and if nothing else will provide some entertainment for a few hours.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I still think it is independent, actually. There's a difference between the probability for one child alone and the probability of the two children as a set. The gender of the second child is independent of the gender of the first. When that kid was born, it was still 50/50 whether it would be a boy or a girl. If you were predicting the genders of both children before either were born, that's when I would say you have to consider the combined probability.

Like I said, Monty Hall problem. It doesn't matter what the initial probability is. Their genders are decided long via individual probability long before you are trying to remember their genders. The question is asking the probability, given that you remember that at least one of their children is a boy, what's the probability the second one is a girl. Inherent in the probability is your memory that one is a boy.

 

[Smellycat]

This game has one of the coolest ads I have ever seen.

I was watching Community on Hulu and it gave me the option to beat a Professor Layton puzzle instead of having the commercials.

I was just about to come in here to bitch about the lack of ads for this game. Did you see any other ads? The last game had a cool ad in the news paper.

I just don't want the sales of the game to continue declining in the west (they already are in Japan). And where are the reviews?

 

[ConradCervantes]

Just as a forewarning to anyone who will be bumrushing their local Gamestop, Target or Wal-Mart tomorrow, the date given in the OP is extremely likely to be the SHIPPING DATE, which means it'll arrive in the aforementioned stores mid-day Tuesday. A lot of people ran into this issue in the Kirby: Mass Attack thread. The only store that actually had it on that very date was Best Buy. Anyone looking to pick it up tomorrow is advised to head there.

 

[Fantastical]

And where are the reviews?

It's not an iOS game...

 

[Smellycat]

Just as a forewarning to anyone who will be bumrushing their local Gamestop, Target or Wal-Mart tomorrow, the date given in the OP is extremely likely to be the SHIPPING DATE, which means it'll arrive in the aforementioned stores mid-day Tuesday. A lot of people ran into this issue in the Kirby: Mass Attack thread. The only store that actually had it on that very date was Best Buy. Anyone looking to pick it up tomorrow is advised to head there.

Thanks for the heads up.

 

[Like the hat?]

Can't wait for it to arrive from amazon. Gonna be a great birthday present for myself. If only I could actually get it on the 17th (my birthday, woo)

 

[watershed]

Did Nintendo stop making commercials with that actress from friends? I thought she was the catalyst for Curious Village doing so well in NA.

And have there really been no commercials for this game yet? I don't watch tv so I wouldn't know.

 

[thetrin]

Getting the game for $10 fromamazon after using some credit. Can't wait! I can never get enough Layton.

 

[Anasui Kishibe]

I'll bite, damn. Bought the American version

happy 70000th avatar Boney

my gift is a creepy on-topic cosplay photo, with Luke played by RDJ

 

[Wizpig]

From Europe with love... and with a shitty DSi XL camera:

By the way, the iOS spin-off is a piece of news i can't really say i liked.

 

[Skellig Gra]

Can anyone confirm yet that today is just the shipping date?

 

[glaringradio]

By the way, the iOS spin-off is a piece of news i can't really say i liked.

Why? More Layton is always good news. Its not as though the series appearing on iOS is going to affect its future on the DS/3DS... The sales for Layton on the DS are confirmation of that.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Why? More Layton is always good news. Its not as though the series appearing on iOS is going to affect its future on the DS/3DS... The sales for Layton on the DS are confirmation of that.

iOS doesn't have the buttons required to deliver the control precision Layton is known for.

 

[Trumpets]

my gift is a creepy on-topic cosplay photo, with Luke played by RDJ

I see your creepy Layton cosplay and raise you:

 

[isny]

I see your creepy Layton cosplay and raise you:

Is that Henry Gibson? lol

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0002099/

 

[-Pyromaniac-]

I'm pretty excited to play this. I had totally forgotten about it. I played all the layton games that came to NA all in a row when I got my 3DS, loved them.

 

[Skellig Gra]

Can anyone confirm yet that today is just the shipping date?

Guess I found the answer to my own question, Gamestop's site just updated the release date to tomorrow.

 

[seady]

Layton games come out every year, but for some reason it feels a loooong time in between every games.


Maybe I love Layton games too much.

 

[PhantomOfTheKnight]

Why? More Layton is always good news. Its not as though the series appearing on iOS is going to affect its future on the DS/3DS... The sales for Layton on the DS are confirmation of that.

I think it's mostly becuase the whole "Layton Bros." thing seems a bit unneccassary, especially since it was originally started as a new I.P.

 

[Smellycat]

Wal Mart doesn't have it, and Best Buy said they will get it tomorrow

 

[Anasui Kishibe]

jesus man, don't quote the whole OT

I see your creepy Layton cosplay and raise you:

damn, you trumped the suit there

I bring in Muscular Layton, hyper-excited Luke and Layton clone admiring himself with gay and threesome inuuendoes

and I guess we're done OTing

 

[Wizpig]

iOS doesn't have the buttons required to deliver the control precision Layton is known for.

Har har. har.

 

[Smellycat]

jesus man, don't quote the whole OT

Sorry, I have no idea how that happened. I am usingy phone and that secondaps websIte.

 

[DXB-KNIGHT]

Is London Life is the closest thing to the Mother series that NA will ever get

 

[Wizpig]

I think it's mostly becuase the whole "Layton Bros." thing seems a bit unneccassary, especially since it was originally started as a new I.P.

That's it, but not only because of that; In all these months i honestly forgot the existence of the DS game that got canceled, but now that i see it again the characters looked interesting -- now they do this; thanks god it's not a Facebook game or something, but it was supposed to be a new IP and... they instead decided to start a spin-off series.

I felt the same way when they started Gyakuten Kenji instead of releasing Ace Attorney 5 (or ending the series).

Now the second point.

I'm probably the only one in the world who cares about the overarching plot of Layton, I think, but the fact that the main character of Super Layton Bros. is his son sounds very, very, very unnecessary.

Do it after you finish the trilogy, if you must. (Layton 6 on the 3DS)
Not now.

Third Point?
Like all those Layton clones they put a beautiful girl instead of "a Luke".
Level 5 copying the copies?

Luckily between that 4 games in 1 project, layton vs. AA and another shit ton of projects Level 5 stays god tier.

 

[Boney]

yes but dem hips

 

[TheExodu5]

Possible child configurations:
BB <-- could be this, other kid is boy
BG <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GB <-- could be this, other kid is girl
GG <-- could not be this because one of them is a boy.

Two in three chance it's a girl.

It's a Monty Hall style freakonomics counterintuitive thing.

This is such a mind fuck.

 

[Wizpig]

yes but dem hips

I edited with a third point that's definitely related to dem hips.

Oh well, let's enjoy the fourth game.

Btw it was the one i was most hyped for along with the third one: the fifth one on the 3DS didn't catch my attention a lot.

I also can't wait to see the movie again (US Luke etc.)

 

[Boney]

so we happy then?

 

[Wizpig]

Would've been more happy if they released Mystery Room (the DS project) on iOS.

End of the ot and back in the |OT|

 

[TehOh]

Bah, was hoping to grab it today from Toys R Us (buy 2, get 1 free sale). No chance of it being in stock this afternoon?

 

[TheExodu5]

Well done, this is absolutely correct.

If I had said the first is a boy, or the second is a boy, then the chance of the other being either a boy or a girl would have been 50/50. But saying that one is a boy makes the chance of the other being a girl 2/3.

It really is counter intuitive as most people with a basic understand of probabilities misapply the principals of independent events in this case.

For those of you that still have a hard time believing this, think of it this way. You are twice as likely to have one child of each gender then you are of having two boys (because there are twice as many combinations that produce that outcome).


Here's another way of putting it that gets people even more confused:

If I were to flip two identical pennies in secret, and show you that one of them was heads, there would be a 2/3 chance that the other was tails (for the same reasons as the problem above). However, if one the pennies had a mark on it, and you saw that mark when I revealed that it was heads, the chances of the other being tails is now 50%.

When presented with this, most people think it sounds ridiculous. How can the fact that there is a mark on one penny change the odds of what the other can be?

The answer of course, is that it can't. What has changed, in a subtle way, is the question. In the second example, the question is reduced to simply, "what was the result on the penny without the mark", which is clearly 50/50, completely independent of what happened to the one with the mark. In the first case, the question can be thought of "what are the chances he got 2 heads"?

In the second case, we have complete information about one of the coins, but none about the other, whereas in the first example we have some information about the combination of the coins.

Like I said, very unintuitive.

I've obsessed over this problem for the past 2 hours. It's finally clicked with me, and is now perfectly intuitive in my mind.

I feel like I understand the world a bit better now. I picked up Layton in celebration.

 

[Dog Problems]

so we happy then?

I can't wait for the iOS game. Can never get enough of this series.

 

[JeTmAn81]

I've obsessed over this problem for the past 2 hours. It's finally clicked with me, and is now perfectly intuitive in my mind.

I feel like I understand the world a bit better now. I picked up Layton in celebration.

I understand the logic, I still can't quite make my mind choose that solution (both make sense depending on how I frame the question). This is the statement that keeps me from giving in:

What if the other child was randomly selected from the world's population of children? Would it still be 2/3 that the child is a girl?

 

[marjo]

I understand the logic, I still can't quite make my mind choose that solution (both make sense depending on how I frame the question). This is the statement that keeps me from giving in:

What if the other child was randomly selected from the world's population of children? Would it still be 2/3 that the child is a girl?

If both children were randomly selected from the world's population of children, then yes, the probability would be 2/3 that if one child is a boy, the other would be a girl.

If you already know that one is a boy and then randomly select the other from the global population, then you're back to 50/50. It's the same as asking what the probability would be that the second child is a girl (always 50/50 independant of the first child).

 

[Clott]

No one wants to answer my question? I am a potential fan, but I need to know where it's recommended to start?

 

[Enduin]

No one wants to answer my question? I am a potential fan, but I need to know where it's recommended to start?

At the first game. Curious Village->Diabolical Box->Unwound Future->Last Specter. Theyre all top notch.

 

[Chairhome]

Bah, was hoping to grab it today from Toys R Us (buy 2, get 1 free sale). No chance of it being in stock this afternoon?

I called my Toys R Us and they said it wasn't in stock and wasn't scheduled to be on a shipment this week, but to call back tomorrow just in case. The website now says "estimated ship date of 10/19". I will probably call tomorrow, and if its not in, I'll order online cause I just tried adding it to my cart with two other games and the promotion kicked in.