Support NeoGAF

[Auto_aim1]

Rockstar and Take-Two today finally confirmed Max Payne 3 for release in March 2012 (which means it's still a part of the current fiscal year). This is good news for Take-Two's stock, but it's also encouraging for fans anticipating GTA V next year after April. Analysts believe Max Payne 3 should do well, and according to Sterne Agee's Arvind Bhatia, it's going to have to since it may require sales of about 4 million units to break even.

"Life-to-date, the Max Payne franchise has sold through 7M units between the two prior versions -- Max Payne and Max Payne 2. We think the latest iteration, Max Payne 3, has greater potential for success than either of the two prior versions," noted Bhatia.

He then added, "Although the break-even unit level for Max Payne 3 is likely high -- probably in the 4M units range -- due to its long development time, we think the title is highly anticipated and has potential for upside surprise."

Bhatia generated a table (see below) which outlines his hypothetical profitability model for Max Payne 3 at higher unit levels.

Big image - http://media.industrygamers.com/editorial/2011/09/Untitled.jpg

http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...develop-require-4-million-sold-to-break-even/

 

[LiK]

Holy shit balls

 

[legbone]

holy crap. 4 million. good luck with that.

 

[jackdoe]

Haha. Complete mismanagement of a game tends to do that.

 

[Grisby]

Thats a lotta money.

 

[Dyno]

That's something of a risk I would say.

 

[The Technomancer]

SMH

 

[ReturnOfTheRAT]

You're doing it wrong Rockstar.

 

[skyfinch]

I might buy a copy. Hope it helps.

 

[JumpingTheGun]

Does anyone know how many units of GTAIV and RDR sold?

 

[The_Darkest_Red]

I hope that budget translates into quality.

 

[Mr_Brit]

How does this guy know how much the game costs? He has no idea how big the dev team is or how long actual development has been ongoing.

 

[StuBurns]

EDIT: NM, that was for a first party title. Four is right for $105.

 

[Speedymanic]

And so we bare witness to the slow death of the Max Payne franchise.

C'mon, there's just no way it's going to sell 4m.

 

[Gravijah]

do europeans even care about noir

 

[Lagspike_exe]

ACCORDING TO AN ANALYST.

 

[Danielsan]

Rockstar management™

do europeans even care about noir

Yes we do.

 

[Sn4ke_911]

It's a R* game. They'll reach it.

 

[Fjordson]

Does anyone know how many units of GTAIV and RDR sold?

Around 17-18 million for GTA IV, 10 million for Red Dead Redemption.

Rockstar is laughing at a measly 4 million.

 

[B_Rik_Schitthaus]

You could make 3 Shenmues for that.

 

[FoneBone]

And people wonder why their games' high sales aren't enough to keep them from losing money.

 

[Grinchy]

What a huge risk for seemingly no reason. Is the Max Payne IP really known to sell that well? I couldn't care less about the franchise and I sit on a gaming forum every day.

 

[subversus]

sounds like a usual budget for Rockstar

 

[KingDizzi]

R* are like Nintendo, they blast every bit of media on the planet when it comes to their games so they sell. This game will do 5+ million at worst and we all know it, can make anything sell if you advertise enough and this is a R* game so quality is assured. Yeah the Housers might have to get a few priests again to get rid of the negative huga boogha and some wives might be pissed, nothing big though.

 

[criesofthepast]

It's a R* game. They'll reach it.

Easily.

 

[JumpingTheGun]

20 million for GTA IV, 10 million for Red Dead Redemption.

Rockstar is laughing at a measly 4 million.

Pssh. They'll do it.

 

[fernoca]

4 million is not that "impossible", heck LA Noire did that (shipped)...and costed even more to make. On top of been a brand new franchise.

 

[Garjon]

I hope this is simply due to the project going through so many changes to date, otherwise that is insane. Any company that produces a game that requires 4 million just to break even is treading thin ice regardless of their prestige.

Although I suppose that figure does not include DLC, which would probably lower the requirement considerably.

 

[subversus]

What a huge risk for seemingly no reason. Is the Max Payne IP really known to sell that well? I couldn't care less about the franchise and I sit on a gaming forum every day.

I don't care about Final Fantasy or Monster Hunter and I sit on a gaming forum every day.

 

[YuriLowell]

It's a R* game. They'll reach it.

This.

You don't understand how good rockstar marketing is.

They made that piece of shit LA Noir look like a good game.

 

[Kaako]

Wtf...they'll most likely reach it but that is kinda crazy. $105 mil budget, wow.

 

[Fjordson]

Pssh. They'll do it.

I was overstating GTA IV, looking it up apparently the last known figure is over 17 mill. But yeah, 4 million isn't a huge deal for them at this point.

Edit: Fuck me, apparently it is 20 million as of March. Insane.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Around 17-18 million for GTA IV, 10 million for Red Dead Redemption.

Rockstar is laughing at a measly 4 million.

Does Max Payne 3 have anything in common with those games in terms of gameplay?

 

[DSN2K]

could easily shift 2m worldwide on the 360....PS3 & PC would take it over the 4m mark imo.

 

[Kafel]

wat

 

[StuBurns]

What a huge risk for seemingly no reason. Is the Max Payne IP really known to sell that well? I couldn't care less about the franchise and I sit on a gaming forum every day.

As if it matters. RDRevolver did quite well, but RDR did excellent. Those guys know quality, and marketing. The IP isn't going to hold them back.

 

[Luckyman]

lol, this analyst

 

[AngryMoth]

Do we know anything about this game yet? Is there a trailer? It seemed to be in development he'll for so long that I just assumed it was cancelled

 

[NotTheGuyYouKill]

It'll sell that much on the Rockstar name alone. Come on, everyone knows that.

 

[Gravijah]

Yes we do.

next you'll try telling me you guys love the westerns. psh.

 

[angular graphics]

How does this guy know how much the game costs? He has no idea how big the dev team is or how long actual development has been ongoing.

ACCORDING TO AN ANALYST.

This. These are not official numbers people!

 

[Fjordson]

Does Max Payne 3 have anything in common with those games in terms of gameplay?

It could be a farming simulator with Rockstar's name on it. Shit is going to sell.

The fact that it's an already well-loved IP with lots of guns is just a bonus.

 

[Painraze]

4 million for Rockstar is peanuts at this point.

 

[AltogetherAndrews]

So, this is just the musings of another jackass analyst?

 

[diffusionx]

This. These are not official numbers people!

Look at what happened to Team Bondi. It might not be official but there's reason to believe it is accurate.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It could be a farming simulator with Rockstar's name on it. Shit is going to sell.

The fact that it's an already well-loved IP with lots of guns is just a bonus.

LA Noire did so well the studio no longer exists and it was far more like GTA than Max Payne 3 is. If:


GTA 4: 18m
RDR: 10m
LA Noire: 6m


Happened, I don't see why Max Payne 3 can't sell 3m or fewer. The more the games get away from GTA, the less they sell and Max Payne 3 has little to do with GTA.

 

[C-Jo]

Calling it now. Horrible mismanagement aside, Max Payne 3 will be profitable.

That's just how Rockstar do.

 

[Gravijah]

LA Noire did so well the studio no longer exists and it was far more like GTA than Max Payne 3 is. If:


GTA 4: 18m
RDR: 10m
LA Noire: 6m


Happened, I don't see why Max Payne 3 can't sell 3m or fewer. The more the games get away from GTA, the less they sell and Max Payne 3 has little to do with GTA.

Uhm, the studio no longer exists because no one wants to work with them, not because LA Noire was a failure.

 

[sixteen-bit]

It'll sell that much on the Rockstar name alone. Come on, everyone knows that.

Yep, probably.

 

[Gareth Bale]

Such a poorly-managed developer. If it wasn't for the Rockstar name they wouldn't even come close to selling that many units.