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[Great Hair]

On January 1st, 2018, I made predictions about self driving cars, Artificial Intelligence, machine learning, and robotics, and about progress in the space industry. Those predictions had dates attached to them for 32 years up through January 1st, 2050.

I made my predictions because at the time I saw an immense amount of hype about these three topics, and the general press and public drawing conclusions about all sorts of things they feared (e.g., truck driving jobs about to disappear, all manual labor of humans about to disappear) or desired (e.g., safe roads about to come into existence, a safe haven for humans on Mars about to start developing) being imminent. My predictions, with dates attached to them, were meant to slow down those expectations, and inject some reality into what I saw as irrational exuberance.

I was accused of being a pessimist, but I viewed what I was saying as being a realist. Today, I am starting to think that I too, reacted to all the hype, and was overly optimistic in some of my predictions. My current belief is that things will go, overall, even slower than I thought four years ago today. That is not to say that there has not been great progress in all three fields, but it has not been as overwhelmingly inevitable as the tech zeitgeist thought on January 1st, 2018.

Predictions Scorecard, 2022 January 01 – Rodney Brooks

rodneybrooks.com

Rodney Brooks - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Rodney Allen Brooks (born 30 December 1954[1][better source needed]) is an Australian roboticist, Fellow of the Australian Academy of Science, author, and robotics entrepreneur, most known for popularizing the actionist approach to robotics. He was a Panasonic Professor of Robotics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and former director of the MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory. He is a founder and former Chief Technical Officer of iRobot[2] and co-Founder, Chairman and Chief Technical Officer of Rethink Robotics (formerly Heartland Robotics) and currently[when?] is the co-founder and Chief Technical Officer of Robust.AI (founded in 2019).[3]

 

[Tschumi]

I've not the time to read your link, but I want to give your thread a bump, I'll just say that I've been reflecting of late on the effect of Covid on technological development. That is all. Maybe I'll delve deeper into these mysteries next time I'm on the can.

 

[Great Hair]

It´s a light, but interesting read.

Summarized: every one is a big phony-poop-talentless-fraudster-kayne-west-fan. I refuse to believe, that people actually desire to have some shit like this in their homes.



A useless tool, incapable of getting the ingredients out of the frigde. Needs to be fed, every ingredient given. On a predesignated spot, prolly highlighted by a red light [it´s always a red light, dot].

Even a granny with arthritis is faster thatn that. Add all those robo gadgets filming the home, the family, if you have bugger in your beard or if your wife is faithful ...

And over at the Sony YT, they had a zoom meeting of 5 aibo fans, talking about Sony´s long enduring aibo dog. One guy was petting it ... and he seemed to have enjoyed it.

i think it´s time we have a third world war? Did we peak in the ninties? Can we please go back to that time¿

 

[Bernd Lauert]

People tend to overestimate short-term developments and underestimate long-term ones.

 

[StreetsofBeige]

It´s a light, but interesting read.

Summarized: every one is a big phony-poop-talentless-fraudster-kayne-west-fan. I refuse to believe, that people actually desire to have some shit like this in their homes.



A useless tool, incapable of getting the ingredients out of the frigde. Needs to be fed, every ingredient given. On a predesignated spot, prolly highlighted by a red light [it´s always a red light, dot].

Even a granny with arthritis is faster thatn that. Add all those robo gadgets filming the home, the family, if you have bugger in your beard or if your wife is faithful ...

And over at the Sony YT, they had a zoom meeting of 5 aibo fans, talking about Sony´s long enduring aibo dog. One guy was petting it ... and he seemed to have enjoyed it.

i think it´s time we have a third world war? Did we peak in the ninties? Can we please go back to that time¿

Tech companies have lots of money, and many blow their wad on dumb shit, or for a Halo effect trying to make them all-stars.

It's like car companies doing those crazy concept cars. There's is zero value or chance any of crazy creations are coming to a dealership, but it often times gets the most eyes on the brand, since Honda trying to promote the new 2022 Accord with 10 more HP and lane departure alert standard is..... Yawnnnn.