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Rottenwatch: AVATAR (82%)

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irfan said:
Few corrections;
1. Its at 126M (literally)
2. It will most likely gross 10M today taking the total to 136M.
3. It needs 64M Fri-Sun, which is more likely.
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GhaleonEB said:
Don't forget it will make money today as well. Looking at past years, box office for Christmas Eve drops about 50% from the day before, so add another $8m or so, and then it's not all that unrealistic.

Avatar would need a $67m weekend. And between word of mouth and the Christmas boost, I don't think a $10m drop from last weekend (which was nerfed due to the storm) is out of the question. It will be close, either way.

But think of it this way: Avatar will probably be around $600m WW by the end of the weekend, after ten days of release.

Edit: beaten on most points.
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Yup, as soon as I had posted it I realized I hadnt factored in today :lol The march to $200M by Sunday is on!
 
polyh3dron said:
Zeliard, if you have the opportunity, try watching it in IMAX. RealD hurt my eyes too.
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I plan on watching it at a real IMAX, after the holiday rush.

It's going to be playing at IMAX screens for a while, probably. Someone once posted that it was originally scheduled to play at IMAX for 8 weeks, with the potential for more if it makes enough money. Not only is Avatar making a lot of money, but it seems like it'd be a showcase for the benefits of such a huge screen, even if Avatar's not technically designed for it.

It sorta feels weird for me to be going to the theater for one movie like this. I literally can't remember the last time I ever went to the theater even twice for just one movie - I honestly don't know if I ever have before Avatar. But Avatar is such a pure cinematic experience that it'll undoubtedly lose a lot when viewing it at home, and that's not necessarily just due to the 3D. Even beyond that, Avatar is thrilling in a way that you can only really experience at theaters, with booming sound, a receptive audience and a large screen.

I can't imagine the action scenes towards the end having the near same impact when viewed at home, and this goes for Avatar more than most movies, due to how the action is shot. The CGI is visually stunning along with the action being beautifully choreographed and framed, and you can only really see the full effect of that on a big screen.

Having said all that, Blu-Ray day one.
 
GhaleonEB said:
Yeah, you're missing the point entirely. Twilight (the first) for instance did this its first week:

$35,978,348
$21,287,029
$12,372,363
$4,515,245
$6,012,635
$7,964,881
$5,231,976

It's easy to float up a bit during the week when you crash to $4m on Monday.

Up did this:

$21,481,834
$26,394,319
$20,232,637
$6,271,151
$6,405,897
$6,116,646
$6,169,951

Very steady performance. While making half as much.

So I suppose the caveat would be, at the level Avatar is performing at, this is unprecedented.
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Avatar's viewers didn't rush out to see the movie in the opening weekend, is basically what the drops are telling me. Though, I do expect the movie to have better legs than most.

I don't see how I'm so far off point given the second Twilight's opening week numbers:

$72,703,754
$42,288,881
$27,846,502
$10,506,486
$11,328,695
$14,198,803

It's obvious the drop off after the weekend was huge, but it still increased on Tuesday and Wednesday. I do think Avatar will fare better today than New Moon did on its first Thursday.
 
There was applause the first and second time I saw it (the LieMAX), but not the third (RealD). To be fair, I'm not sure why people do clap after a film, it's an incredible film, but no one is there to receive the applause.
 
hate to see this guy at the gas station

"I just spent an hour of my paycheck and you can't give me a full tank???? Way to shit on the little guy Chevron"
 
stuburns said:
There was applause the first and second time I saw it (the LieMAX), but not the third (RealD). To be fair, I'm not sure why people do clap after a film, it's an incredible film, but no one is there to receive the applause.
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Ive never clapped at a movie, personally, but Ive witnessed the occurance 3 different times, and while I didnt participate, I loved. Something about seeing a movie that totally blew you away being capped off with thunderous applause takes the experience to another level.
 
duderon said:
Avatar's viewers didn't rush out to see the movie in the opening weekend, is basically what the drops are telling me. Though, I do expect the movie to have better legs than most.

I don't see how I'm so far off point given the second Twilight's opening week numbers:

$72,703,754
$42,288,881
$27,846,502
$10,506,486
$11,328,695
$14,198,803

It's obvious the drop off after the weekend was huge, but it still increased on Tuesday and Wednesday. I do think Avatar will fare better today than New Moon did on its first Thursday.
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First off your comparison with Twilight (:lol) is way off. Movies that nose dive on Monday have good chances to go up in the next few days. Movies that dont like this one, the holds are impressive.

Also you are setting up yourself (& others) for disappointment by saying you expect better numbers today than 14M. Again you'll have to look at the movies that released pre-Christmas as to how they fared on Christmas eve.

You have a lot of work to do if you want to predict BO numbers that are reasonable.
 
duderon said:
I don't see how I'm so far off point given the second Twilight's opening week numbers:

$72,703,754
$42,288,881
$27,846,502
$10,506,486
$11,328,695
$14,198,803
Click to expand...
You keep proving my point with every post. I don't think you understand what you are looking at or what I've been saying.
 
Today will be Avatar's lowest grossing day yet, for obvious reasons. Conversely, there is a very minor outside chance that tomorrow or Saturday could be is highest.
 
stuburns said:
There was applause the first and second time I saw it (the LieMAX), but not the third (RealD). To be fair, I'm not sure why people do clap after a film, it's an incredible film, but no one is there to receive the applause.
Click to expand...

I think people do it both to express their enthusiasm at the film and also to fill the silence after a movie ends. It's basically like a release of emotion. A lot of people aren't comfortable enough to say "holy shit!" out loud at cool parts in the film, so they remain reserved until the end.

Then again, I did hear it a bunch with Avatar, especially the action scenes at the end. :lol

Every time a Banshee would own a helicopter, there'd be a series of "holy shits" emanating from the audience. That scene where Tsu'tey goes apeshit on a bunch of humans practically sent the audience into conniptions, both times I watched it.
 
Solo said:
Ive never clapped at a movie, personally, but Ive witnessed the occurance 3 different times, and while I didnt participate, I loved. Something about seeing a movie that totally blew you away being capped off with thunderous applause takes the experience to another level.
Click to expand...
I have also experienced the applause thrice;
SM2 (moderate)
TDK (outrageous)
Avatar (subdued)

To be fair, I dont think many people were even the state of mind to applaud at the end of Avatar. :D
 
Solo said:
Ive never clapped at a movie, personally, but Ive witnessed the occurance 3 different times, and while I didnt participate, I loved. Something about seeing a movie that totally blew you away being capped off with thunderous applause takes the experience to another level.
Click to expand...
I liked it, and participated, however in retrospect I don't see why it happened. At the preview in the summer it happened too, but that's fair enough because there were Fox staff there.
 
irfan said:
I have also experienced the applause thrice;
SM2 (moderate)
TDK (outrageous)
Avatar (subdued)

To be fair, I dont think many people were even the state of mind to applaud at the end of Avatar. :D
Click to expand...

Mine were Jurassic Park, Spider-Man 2 (common between both of us, interesting!), and Inglourious Basters. It actually happened in BOTH of my IB screenings, so I guess technically Ive witnessed it 4 times.
 
Nothing new to add, but just got back from a matinee showing (IMAX 3D).

Amazing. Worth triple the price of admission. Maybe it's just the techie in me, but what I appreciated the most from this film is the groundbreaking technical feat that Cameron has pulled off.

Jaw dropping. Ebert's line sums it up best: you can see every dollar on the screen.

I do want to add this: as cliche and predictable as the story is, as I think about it now, I think that the 3D greatly enhanced the emotional connection with the characters.
 
Zeliard said:
I think people do it both to express their enthusiasm at the film and also to fill the silence after a movie ends. It's basically like a release of emotion. A lot of people aren't comfortable enough to say "holy shit!" out loud at cool parts in the film, so they remain reserved until the end.

Then again, I did hear it a bunch with Avatar, especially the action scenes at the end. :lol

Every time a Banshee would own a helicopter, there'd be a series of "holy shits" emanating from the audience. That scene where Tsu'tey goes apeshit on a bunch of humans practically sent the audience into conniptions, both times I watched it.
Click to expand...

The Tsu-Tey scene got a bunch of people clapping in my showings as well. This movie more than any other I've been to had people cheering and woohooing throughout. I myself couldn't hold in my excitement when Jake landed his Toruk while the Na'Vis were singing and had to let out a loud whoooo!
 
Solo said:
Thats yesterday, my man. Im talking about today, Thursday, X-mas eve!
Click to expand...
Ah, my bad.

WW is probably sitting at $375m right now, and will be at $600m by the end of the weekend.

I'm giddy, I tell you. Giggy.
 
4 movies have made a billion dollars worldwide. In early 2010, there will be a 5th one. James Cameron has made 40% of all billion dollar grossers.
 
Solo said:
4 movies have made a billion dollars worldwide. In early 2010, there will be a 5th one. James Cameron has made 40% of all billion dollar grossers.
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That's a bold claim Mr Solo, not that I disagree, but that's sticking your neck out far and wide. I think I said earlier, I think it's better than the wealthy four, maybe Nolan can impress me further with Inception though, I don't doubt him. Like Cameron, he's yet to make a bad film.
 
stuburns said:
That's a bold claim Mr Solo, not that I disagree, but that's sticking your neck out far and wide. I think I said earlier, I think it's better than the wealthy four, maybe Nolan can impress me further with Inception though, I don't doubt him. Like Cameron, he's yet to make a bad film.
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I think thats a safe prediction, considering his history. I think this is the first time I see Solo predicting on the higher side of things. :D
 
GhaleonEB said:
You keep proving my point with every post. I don't think you understand what you are looking at or what I've been saying.
Click to expand...

I do understand what you're saying, and I understand that no other movie has been this consistent at or around $16m for its first weekday box office numbers. I'm saying that it is not unusual for a big movie to increase from Monday to Tuesday and then Tuesday to Wednesday in its first week.
 
gdt5016 said:
Thats a large heap of crow.

So fast, too.
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Since today is day 7 of release, and we've now seen 6 days of numbers, Id fair to say that it will be sitting around $425M WW before the weekend :D
 
stuburns said:
Broke even in a week including promotion. Cameron is a beast.
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Almost, final cost is 430M.

Btw, the gap between Avatar and the squekquel shrunk by 20% between the tracked and the actuals. :D Hopefuly both squekquel and SH bomb this weekend. :P
 
irfan said:
Almost, final cost is 430M.

Btw, the gap between Avatar and the squekquel shrunk by 20% between the tracked and the actuals. :D Hopefuly both squekquel and SH bomb this weekend. :P
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$387M is the official number, but yeah, still not quite there.
 
jett said:
He no doubt planned to sell it off at ebay. Dude doesn't look like a fan.
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Plus if he was a fan, he wouldn't be smack talking the movie afterwards. It was basically just to antagonize Cameron to do something in front of the camera. I would imagine they might have met in the airport earlier and that began the bad mouthing.

But i do think Cameron should have just signed it, and not give these dudes a story.
 
CassidyIzABeast said:
wait wait, are these Thursday numbers or Wednesday numbers with the 381M? BOmojo only has domestic totals for Wed listed
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They're yesterdays numbers. Most of today's showings havent even happened yet. Box office numbers are always a day behind.
 
CassidyIzABeast said:
oh wow, I've been thinking this whole time these were day by day updates:lol
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How could they be though? How could we have todays numbers by 4pm (my time) when most of the showings arent until 6pm-10pm (again, my time)?

Today's (Thursday the 24th) wont be up until tomorrow afternoon.

Thats why when a big new release is coming, I always say Im looking forward to seeing the numbers on Saturday. What Im talking about there isnt Saturday numbers, but Friday estimates.
 
polyh3dron said:
Zeliard, if you have the opportunity, try watching it in IMAX. RealD hurt my eyes too.
Click to expand...
I think RealD has an initial 'eye-hurting period', but after you've seen a few films in the format and have become accustomed to it it's far more comfortable for viewing than IMAX.
 
Solo said:
How could they be though? How could we have todays numbers by 4pm (my time) when most of the showings arent until 6pm-10pm (again, my time)?

Today's (Thursday the 24th) wont be up until tomorrow afternoon.

Thats why when a big new release is coming, I always say Im looking forward to seeing the numbers on Saturday. What Im talking about there isnt Saturday numbers, but Friday estimates.
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no idea why I thought that. I'll take my loss and move on
 
CassidyIzABeast said:
no idea why I thought that. I'll take my loss and move on
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:lol its all good, man.

Anyways, screw box office numbers, lets have some THREAD NUMBERS:
Who Posted?
Total Posts: 7,838

User Name Posts
Scullibundo 384
stuburns 340
Solo 261
Zeliard 254
CassidyIzABeast 207
GhaleonEB 182
jett 172
Dead 146
Jibril 134
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