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Rottenwatch: AVATAR (82%)

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Opiate said:
I've looked through a large portion of it: most comments seem to focus on the films gross (which I am also interested in) or the special effects. I'm looking for impressions of the core of the film -- its characters and associated performances, the clarity and efficacy of the story, any thematic value that may be present, and so forth. There isn't really a great deal of that in this thread, and of what little there is, I see most widely dispersed over thousands of posts. For an official thread, this doesn't facilitate criticism or discussion thereof.

Edit: Zeliard, good synopsis. Thanks.

Honestly, though, the consensus for Avatar should be pretty clear. I remember essentially predicting what Rotten Tomatoes' consensus would be after they only had 10 reviews in.

The story isn't original, no, and it is very predictable. All the stuff you've heard about Pocahontas, Dances with Wolves, Ferngully, whatever, it's true (it's probably more similar to The Last Samurai than anything else, though). The storyline in Avatar is essentially the same. You've also probably seen some people say that doesn't matter. It doesn't.

Execution is far more important than actual storyline innovation, and this goes double when you're already innovating in another way. What makes Avatar special comes through in how it conveys the story through Cameron's particular methods of storytelling, not the actual storyline itself (which we have seen many versions of throughout the years, in different mediums).

It sounds corny but this is definitely one of those movies you go and watch for the full movie experience. Its visual storytelling is essentially unmatched and it will lose some of its appeal watching it at home due to this. It's a very cinematic experience, which is why so many people are going for repeat viewings (more than I can recall for any other movie, even TDK).
 
Opiate said:
And I'm looking for non professional opinions here.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Why am I getting backlash for such a seemingly simple request? I simply wanted some non professional opinions on this films core competencies. Amazingly, the official thread only discusses these sparsely, with far more posts focusing on total gross (which, again, I am also interested in), or simple posts like "wow! Great special effects!" (Which I don't care about, personally).

It seems strange to me that analysis and criticism of the film would be a secondary concern of this thread.


There are tons of great non professional reviews in this thread. Try reading it again, I promise you'll find them.

As for the total gross, I believe it only began to be discussed recently because...well... They'z makin' buckets o' money
 
Opiate said:
I simply wanted some non professional opinions on this films core competencies.

And this thread is full of them. Yes, there is a metric tonne of box office talk and gushing about how pretty everything is, but there has also been a lot of discussion about the movie's core competencies.
 
Opiate said:
And I'm looking for non professional opinions here.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Why am I getting backlash for such a seemingly simple request? I simply wanted some non professional opinions on this films core competencies. Amazingly, the official thread only discusses these sparsely, with far more posts focusing on total gross (which, again, I am also interested in), or simple posts like "wow! Great special effects!" (Which I don't care about, personally).

It seems strange to me that analysis and criticism of the film would be a secondary concern of this thread.

Those discussions kind of petered out, the consensus is strong with this movie.

Simple story---superb execution. Strong, straightforward characters. Predictable plot.

If you can accept those points about the plot, you'll really dig it.
 
Blablurn said:
i might watch it for the 3rd time on monday. wanna ask a friend if she's going to join me.

avatar, fuck yeah.


James Cameron. Not only does he make awesome movies, he helps us out with the ladies.
 
Oh, for some reason I was looking at the wrong column when I said it wasn't a lock it would do more than it did last week. Obviously it wasn't going to drop from 18,4m to 11.1m.
 
Zeliard said:
The reason the movie works so well is that there is a very important difference between story, and storytelling. Cameron has never been great at the former, but he is exceptional at the latter. And Avatar takes visual storytelling, in particular, to a whole new level.

What's Terminator 1, exactly? Terminator is a slasher movie, and yet, it's almost impossible to think of it as such, since that genre is normally so mindless and repetitive. Aliens is, at its base, an "us vs. them" pure action movie that you seen tons of. And yet the end result is something much more. Cameron's sheer quality of execution is the stuff of legend.
Bullshit. The "something much more" in every movie he's done has been the scale of the special effects. He's pushed it to new levels but that's not necessarily improved visual storytelling by any means. In fact most of the fan reviews here have been 'oh Pandora is depicted so wonderfully, I wish he could have spent more time exploring it, or even made the movie a documentary'. Where's the story involved there?
 
Opiate said:
And I'm looking for non professional opinions here.

I feel like I'm taking crazy pills here. Why am I getting backlash for such a seemingly simple request? I simply wanted some non professional opinions on this films core competencies. Amazingly, the official thread only discusses these sparsely, with far more posts focusing on total gross (which, again, I am also interested in), or simple posts like "wow! Great special effects!" (Which I don't care about, personally).

It seems strange to me that analysis and criticism of the film would be a secondary concern of this thread.
The reason people are annoyed at you is probably because the posts your you're talking about are literally all over this thread. Keep in mind that this thread's "regulars" have been following it from the beginning and pronbably aren't willing to look through hundreds of pages to find exactly the posts you're looking for, and don't really want to repeat themselves for the nth time. If I were you, though, I would go back to the posts made just a few days after the movie was out (around page 100 or so I think) and look there. But it's really not the responsibility of everyone else in this thread to do your work for you or sell you on the movie.
 
Well, when you say Cameron is "bad" at story (or never good at story, etc.), I think this sort of sells him short. The movie's plot is not groundbreaking or inventive, but it's still really solid. There aren't any plotholes or motivation problems or wild, unpredictable changes in character or anything. So even though it's not "OMG MY LIFE HAS CHANGED" when you walk out of the theater, it's still a nice story...and then add in the way it is told and the revolutionary presentation of Cameron's and I was wowed.

I said to myself during the showing that "I do not know how anyone could not like this!"
 
I'm not sure I agree that execution is far more important than innovation, but its certainly very important. If it wasn't, non fiction would be poor storytelling by default, and Wed all condescend on any literature adaptations. Andyour terminator example is a very good one: the story is, essentially, killer robots from the future. And yet it doesn't seem quite so stupid when the story is actually presented.

Thanks for providing the feedback I was looking for!
 
Charred Greyface said:
Bullshit. The "something much more" in every movie he's done has been the scale of the special effects. He's pushed it to new levels but that's not necessarily improved visual storytelling by any means.

I have no idea what you're talking about. Of course the scale and fidelity of VISUAL effects have some impact on the VISUAL storytelling. And that's obviously not just it. Apologies to duckroll, but Bay works with top-notch special effects all the goddamn time and can't tell a story to save his life.

Not to mention that the first Terminator was an incredibly low-budget movie.

Charred Greyface said:
In fact most of the fan reviews here have been 'oh Pandora is depicted so wonderfully, I wish he could have spent more time exploring it, or even made the movie a documentary'. Where's the story involved there?

People were so enamored with Pandora that they wanted to see more of it? This only strengthens my point.

What's always separated Cameron from the pack is that he uses new tech specifically to enhance his storytelling. The tech never, ever gets in the way.
 
Zeliard said:
The story isn't original, no. All the stuff you've heard about Pocahontas, Dances with Wolves, Ferngully, whatever, it's true (it's probably more similar to The Last Samurai than anything else, though). The storyline in Avatar is essentially the same. You've also probably seen some people say that doesn't matter. It doesn't.

Execution is far more important than actual storyline innovation, and this goes double when you're already innovating in another way. What makes Avatar special comes through in how it conveys the story through Cameron's particular methods of storytelling, not the actual storyline itself (which we have seen many versions of throughout the years, in different mediums).

portraying a story which has been told in the past--and will be told far into the future--is absolutely fine, and movies have been doing so for ages. all you have to do is look at any movie or television series or book that deals with these familiar themes (person discovering another culture and growing to admire what it has to offer, basic love story framework, man versus nature, and so on and so forth) to realize that people are perfectly capable of enjoying these themes in spite of the fact that they're so well-tread; a large part of this is because when they're done right, they're executed with such precision and originality that they seem new. hell, i've often watched a movie and never even drawn the connections between what it was supposedly "ripping off."

you're right in that execution is king. unfortunately, that's exactly where this film fails. in the tradition of socratic method, i'll admit up front that for the most part it's a very visually interesting film, and there are moments when it is almost breathtaking how great the planet looks. cameron does a spectacular job of creating a very dense and realistic environment, and that's helped along by the 3d, which gives it layer upon layer of absolutely gorgeous flora. i will also note--as many have--that zoe saldana actually takes what could have been a completely unspectacular character and gave her some personality.

considering how obviously pathetic the writing was in this script, this is quite a feat, and she should be commended accordingly.

everyone else fights with the terribly written dialogue (even sigourney weaver, who is immensely talented, cannot overcome how completely shitty it is). it reminds me of dialogue you write when you do a first draft as a writer: you are incapable in that moment of realizing how wooden and unnatural it really is. people state completely obvious things, or say things that need to be said in unnatural wooden ways. six months down the road, you go back to edit it and wonder what the hell you were thinking. AVATAR's writing is exactly like this, and often reminded me of the way people spoke in the star wars prequels. i walked out feeling like sam worthington was an overhyped waste of time (i wanted to shoot myself each time another monologue--even those presented under the pretense of being "recorded in the name of science!" :lol --popped up), but then again, considering there are people in the film who were similarly terrible i can't really blame him directly.

everything feels rushed, despite the fact that it's ludicrously long, and feels even longer. if there's something that worked in this movie, i have trouble noticing it because the rest is such a mess.

so, there's a nonprofessional opinion for you, opiate. i think people would have been just as impressed with it if it were a fifteen minute sequence in 3d displaying what cameron were capable of with this new technology. as a film, i think it's completely disposable, and i think someone looking for something interesting from a storytelling standpoint will walk out wanting their ten bucks back.
 
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Sharp said:
The reason people are annoyed at you is probably because the posts your you're talking about are literally all over this thread. Keep in mind that this thread's "regulars" have been following it from the beginning and pronbably aren't willing to look through hundreds of pages to find exactly the posts you're looking for, and don't really want to repeat themselves for the nth time. If I were you, though, I would go back to the posts made just a few days after the movie was out (around page 100 or so I think) and look there. But it's really not the responsibility of everyone else in this thread to do your work for you or sell you on the movie.
Of course its not a responsibility: its a request. Requests are, by definition, something one can choose to entertain. A responsibility implies ethical necessity.

I'm not surprised that people might ignore me, but ignorance is quite distinct from hostility. Its like going in to a bar and asking for a light. Rather than simply being ignored, people voice anger at even being asked.

I read the OP and the first page. I skimmed a few pages in the middle. I read the last three pages. Surely if I cannot find what I'm looking for in that, I can ask for assistance without brusque replies? I don't thunk its unreasonable to have missed a bulk of applicable responses around page 100. Even just directing me there - kindly - would have been completely acceptable.

I've got the sort of info I wanted now, thanks both to you and zeliard. I'd suggest the topic is dropped.

Edit: thanks as well to Beelzebobo.
 
beelzebozo said:
portraying a story which has been told in the past--and will be told far into the future--is absolutely fine, and movies have been doing so for ages. all you have to do is look at any movie or television series or book that deals with these familiar themes (person discovering another culture and growing to admire what it has to offer, basic love story framework, man versus nature, and so on and so forth) to realize that people are perfectly capable of enjoying these themes in spite of the fact that they're so well-tread; a large part of this is because when they're done right, they're executed with such precision and originality that they seem new. hell, i've often watched a movie and never even drawn the connections between what it was supposedly "ripping off."

you're right in that execution is king. unfortunately, that's exactly where this film fails. in the tradition of socratic method, i'll admit up front that for the most part it's a very visually interesting film, and there are moments when it is almost breathtaking how great the planet looks. cameron does a spectacular job of creating a very dense and realistic environment, and that's helped along by the 3d, which gives it layer upon layer of absolutely gorgeous flora. i will also note--as many have--that zoe saldana actually takes what could have been a completely unspectacular character and gave her some personality.

considering how obviously pathetic the writing was in this script, this is quite a feat, and she should be commended accordingly.

everyone else fights with the terribly written dialogue (even sigourney weaver, who is immensely talented, cannot overcome how completely shitty it is). it reminds me of dialogue you write when you do a first draft as a writer: you are incapable in that moment of realizing how wooden and unnatural it really is. people state completely obvious things, or say things that need to be said in unnatural wooden ways. six months down the road, you go back to edit it and wonder what the hell you were thinking. AVATAR's writing is exactly like this, and often reminded me of the way people spoke in the star wars prequels. i walked out feeling like sam worthington was an overhyped waste of time (i wanted to shoot myself each time another monologue--even those presented under the pretense of being "recorded in the name of science!" :lol --popped up), but then again, considering there are people in the film who were similarly terrible

everything feels rushed, despite the fact that it's ludicrously long, and feels even longer. if there's something that worked in this movie, i have trouble noticing it because the rest is such a mess.

so, there's a nonprofessional opinion for you, opiate. i think people would have been just as impressed with it if it were a fifteen minute sequence in 3d displaying what cameron were capable of with this new technology. as a film, i think it's completely disposable, and i think someone looking for something interesting from a storytelling standpoint will walk out wanting their ten bucks back.

I respect your opinions beelze, and always have (Downey Jr. is indeed some sort of godlike being), but I do disagree with your opinions on Avatar. I'm also a bit surprised at the degree to which you seem to hate the movie.

What really impressed me is that ultimately, there actually is very little exposition in the movie. There's some at the start to give the viewers their bearings and some context, but most information you end up gathering comes from what Cameron simply shows you (in the best "show, don't tell" fashion). Much of what the viewer ends up learning about Pandora, the Avatar system and the Na'vi comes through in the events that take place on-screen, rather than a character discussing them.

One small but critical example of this is that the movie itself never tells you by way of words what happens to the host when an Avatar body dies, but when we see it happen to someone and they essentially come out of it scared shitless but otherwise unhurt, we have our answer. The movie does this all the time, throughout - gives us answers to questions solely by means of the on-screen visuals. The visuals aren't just sexy, they're critical in giving us a lot of information we'd otherwise have to delve into the script to get.
 
Zeliard said:
The more I consider it, the more I realize how much more powerful the movie would have been with some Earth scenes at the start. Seeing Jake as a paraplegic wheeling himself around a dead, barren, gray environment would have made for a striking contrast to him running around lush Pandora with a 10 foot tall, physically-advanced blue body later on. As it stands, that happens like 10 minutes into the movie. We barely spend any time with crippled Jake - he becomes an Avatar almost immediately, after a little bit of exposition at the start.


I would disagree with half of this, while I think I we needed more time with Jake and more references to Earth but I don't think we need scenes on Earth. I have a feeling that it would be like seeing Zion in the Matrix sequels. The film doesn't need more exposition and I'm not that interested in seeing a copy of Blade Runner's world. It's better alluded to and have the audience imagine their own dystopia. What's missing, I think, are more subtle references to what's Earth is like by characters other than Jake that could be embedded in the dialogues, how Earth exists in their memories and what Pandora represented to them before they set foot on it.

As it is, a lot of the exposition grated with me at the beginning. I hated how Norm has to remark that Jake looks like his brother, how his avatar look likes brother, how his avatar looks like him etc when it's pretty obvious because they're twins. I hated how Selfridge lectured Grace about 'unobtanium'. It was slow with a lot of talking and not a lot of mystery. Compare that with T2, we see the Terminators introduced, we're not told exactly who the bad guy is, we see both in action and then we're told what exactly the T-1000 is and what the Arnold's Terminator is about while his relationship with John developed.

So I agree with the Filmspotting guys to a degree (although I feel that they went a bit over the top to counter the hype and hoopla) in that I did think Cameron was patronizing to pare the story down to this level, to give us so little credit as the audience because he was appealing to the lowest common denominator.
 
Timbuktu said:
I would disagree with half of this, while I think I we needed more time with Jake and more references to Earth but I don't think we need scenes on Earth. I have a feeling that it would be like seeing Zion in the Matrix sequels. The film doesn't need more exposition and I'm not that interested in seeing a copy of Blade Runner's world. It's better alluded to and have the audience imagine their own dystopia. What's missing, I think, are more subtle references to what's Earth is like by characters other than Jake that could be embedded in the dialogues, how Earth exists in their memories and what Pandora represented to them before they set foot on it.

Either way, we both agree than more Earth could have been helpful in some fashion. I just happen to think it would have been stronger as a visual juxtaposition, rather than characters referencing what Earth is really like.

Timbuktu said:
As it is, a lot of the exposition grated with me at the beginning. I hated how Norm has to remark that Jake looks like his brother, how his avatar look likes brother, how his avatar looks like him etc when it's pretty obvious because they're twins. I hated how Selfridge lectured Grace about 'unobtanium'. It was slow with a lot of talking and not a lot of mystery. Compare that with T2, we see the Terminators introduced, we're not told exactly who the bad guy is, we see both in action and then we're told what exactly the T-1000 is and what the Arnold's Terminator is about while his relationship with John developed.

So I agree with the Filmspotting guys to a degree (although I feel that they went a bit over the top to counter the hype and hoopla) in that I did think Cameron was patronizing to pare the story down to this level, to give us so little credit as the audience because he was appealing to the lowest common denominator.

I don't really mind exposition at the start of movies since they're helpful in getting a lot of viewers settled in. I didn't think it was that egregious in this at all. They arrive on Pandora and things get started quite early on in the movie.
 
GhaleonEB said:
You've gotta be fuckin' kidding me....:lol

That's a HUGE NYE take. WTF.
BoxOfficeMojo said:
2008- Marley and Me 7.3---> 6.9 drop= 6%
2007- Book of Secrets 10.7--->9.1 drop= 14.5%
2006- Night at the Museum- 13.7---> 9.5 drop= 31%
2005- Narnia 9.7---> 7.7 drop= 20%
2004- Meet the fockers 12.2---> 12.1 drop= .3%
2003- LOTR - 9.6 ---> 7.5 drop= 22%
2002- 2 towers 10.1--->8.4 drop= 32%
Avatar had about a 19.3% drop. That puts it pretty much smack-dab in the middle for drops for number one films on New Year's Eve. Again... the numbers are huge, but in terms of drops it's hardly unprecedented.
 
Zeliard said:
I have no idea what you're talking about. Of course the scale and fidelity of VISUAL effects have some impact on the VISUAL storytelling. And that's obviously not just it. Apologies to duckroll, but Bay works with top-notch special effects all the goddamn time and can't tell a story to save his life.

Not to mention that the first Terminator was an incredibly low-budget movie.



People were so enamored with Pandora that they wanted to see more of it? This only strengthens my point.

What's always separated Cameron from the pack is that he uses new tech specifically to enhance his storytelling. The tech never, ever gets in the way.
NO, it undermines your point. They want to see more special effects not learn more about the characters or the story. This is a film in thrall to its special effects, not special effects in service of the film.The story is so trite and perfuctionally executed that it reduces the film to a mere spectacle.
 
Sharp said:
Avatar had about a 19.3% drop. That puts it pretty much smack-dab in the middle for drops for number one films on New Year's Eve. Again... the numbers are huge, but in terms of drops it's hardly unprecedented.
I wasn't marveling at the percentages, but the dollars. To amend your numbers:

2009- Avatar 14.9
2008- Marley and Me 6.9
2007- Book of Secrets 9.1
2006- Night at the Museum 13.7
2005- Narnia 7.7
2004- Meet the Fockers 12.1
2003- LOTR 7.5
2002- 2 towers 8.4

Looks like it's the biggest NYE take ever. And it will smoke the New Year's Day record as well - Meet the Fockers holds it with $18.3m. Drops are interesting, and important, but right now Avatar is just setting up to steamroll records left and right.

Charred Greyface said:
The story is so trite and perfuctionally executed that it reduces the film to a mere spectacle.
In your opinion. Most people disagree with you; I think you're way off the mark. It's a familiar story arc told with passion, detail and strong characters that people care about. If it wasn't, it wouldn't be doing what it is.
 
Charred Greyface said:
NO, it undermines your point. They want to see more special effects not learn more about the characters or the story. The is a film in thrall to its special effects, not special effects in service of the film.The story is so trite and perfuctionally executed that it reduces the film to a mere spectacle.

The depiction of Pandora is a part of the story, though. This is what I'm talking about when I say "visual storytelling". Pandora is one aspect of the story, the biggest one, and it is conveyed almost entirely through the visuals (and the sound design, to a much lesser extent).

When I think of a writer/director who writes wooden dialogue and unspectacular stories, but one who is unable to overcome that with his storytelling, I'm thinking of recent George Lucas, not James Cameron.

Cameron has his weaknesses, and they're obvious to everyone. I personally said recently after watching Avatar for the first time that I wish that Cameron would start bringing in someone else to actually write the scripts, while he comes up with his typically imaginative concepts. But Cameron's directorial prowess is so large that he's been able to muffle his weaknesses as a writer pretty effectively and keep them from dominating his films.
 
I was at new years downtown, in front of a science museum where there is an IMAX, and there were signs all over the place that said 'All Thursday Avatar showings are sold out!!!'

:lol I couldn't believe it.
 
This means it could very well reach 350 million with sunday's estimates. Since monday that'd be 140 million in a week. If it drops 30% week-to-week we could be looking at 450 million by next weekend, and an easily achievable 500 mill in two weeks from now. If the domestic/overseas percentages remain the same, that'd mean 1.428 billion in total wolrdwide gross.

...

219ovtd.jpg
 
GhaleonEB said:
I wasn't marveling at the percentages, but the dollars. To amend your numbers:

2009- Avatar 14.9
2008- Marley and Me 6.9
2007- Book of Secrets 9.1
2006- Night at the Museum 13.7
2005- Narnia 7.7
2004- Meet the Fockers 12.1
2003- LOTR 7.5
2002- 2 towers 8.4

Looks like it's the biggest NYE take ever. And it will smoke the New Year's Day record as well - Meet the Fockers holds it with $18.3m. Drops are interesting, and important, but right now Avatar is just setting up to steamroll records left and right.
Big numbers are great, but unusually small drops are what will get it to the records people really care about. That's not to downplay how phenomenally Avatar is doing, I'm just trying to temper some of the unbridled enthusiasm that people are showing for what was objectively, entirely predictable.
 
I have a feeling that this weekend's BO could well be up there with the previous 2 weekend's. People are gonna want to go back to work on Monday having seen the event film of the decade so that they can talk about it round the water cooler.

AVATAR is doing about $50 million a day worldwide during the week so after this weekend, the $1 billion milestone is bound to have fallen.
 
Sharp said:
Big numbers are great, but unusually small drops are what will get it to the records people really care about. That's not to downplay how phenomenally Avatar is doing, I'm just trying to temper some of the unbridled enthusiasm that people are showing for what was objectively, entirely predictable.
The drop on NYE was a normal drop. So was Avatar's Christmas Eve drop, and so have the Sunday --> Monday decreases been. It was expected and normal in percentage terms, but simply huge in dollar terms. These two things can go hand in hand, and have several times so far in Avatar's run. If all you want to talk about is how normal the percentage drop is, that's fine. I am looking at both.
 
Sharp said:
Big numbers are great, but unusually small drops are what will get it to the records people really care about. That's not to downplay how phenomenally Avatar is doing, I'm just trying to temper some of the unbridled enthusiasm that people are showing for what was objectively, entirely predictable.

Yes it's a fact that the drop percentages are not that out of the ordinary compared to other movies in the past. The difference is the amount of money Avatar is raking in, not only that but it's also has been consistently increasing this week over the previous one.

Avatar will undoubtedly become the #2 highest grossing movie in the world in less than a month. And that is also a fact.

2lu2trt.jpg
 
Sharp said:
Big numbers are great, but unusually small drops are what will get it to the records people really care about. That's not to downplay how phenomenally Avatar is doing, I'm just trying to temper some of the unbridled enthusiasm that people are showing for what was objectively, entirely predictable.

AVATAR has been seeing unusually small drops so far and the fact that its 2nd full week is going to be significantly higher than its 1st full week (barring a ridiculously small Friday take) is incredible. This sort of thing just doesn't happen to big blockbusters.
 
jett said:
Yes it's a fact that the drop percentages are not that out of the ordinary compared to other movies in the past. The difference is the amount of money Avatar is raking in, not only that but it's also has been consistently increasing this week over the previous one.

Avatar will undoubtedly become the #2 highest grossing movie in the world in less than a month. And that is also a fact.

2lu2trt.jpg
Hahaha :lol :lol

"Shakes head in agreement" :lol
 
Saw the movie. Went in with low expectations and was blown away. At times I would forget I was watching CG. Great movie though.

Btw, anyone else find that girl navi hot?

One more thing, how would a sequel work for this movie? I don't see it personally. Like, what would it be about?
 
PhoenixRising said:
AVATAR has been seeing unusually small drops so far and the fact that its 2nd full week is going to be significantly higher than its 1st full week (barring a ridiculously small Friday take) is incredible. This sort of thing just doesn't happen to big blockbusters.
Yesterday was Avatar's 14th day of release (a week runs Friday-Thursday for it), so we can do the comparison now using Thursday's estimates:

Week 1 | 137,094,051
Week 2 | 146,692,023

Difference | 9,597,972
Increase | 7%
 
Mikey Jr. said:
One more thing, how would a sequel work for this movie? I don't see it personally. Like, what would it be about?


Humans return and nuke the planet.
The movie will be 30 minutes long

GhaleonEB said:
Difference | 9,597,972
Increase | 7%

All I can do is laugh at these numbers :lol
 
jett said:
Yes it's a fact that the drop percentages are not that out of the ordinary compared to other movies in the past. The difference is the amount of money Avatar is raking in, not only that but it's also has been consistently increasing this week over the previous one.

Avatar will undoubtedly become the #2 highest grossing movie in the world in less than a month. And that is also a fact.

2lu2trt.jpg

Hua! Yea, hell yea!
 
jett said:
Yes it's a fact that the drop percentages are not that out of the ordinary compared to other movies in the past. The difference is the amount of money Avatar is raking in, not only that but it's also has been consistently increasing this week over the previous one.

Avatar will undoubtedly become the #2 highest grossing movie in the world in less than a month. And that is also a fact.

2lu2trt.jpg
I agree, but, well... let me put it this way. It has been having pretty "normal" drops and holds so far--above-average for a big blockbuster, but well in line with many other Christmas movies--and raking in big numbers, but for some reason it seems like people expect it to suddenly stop having normal drops after the holidays, when most of those movies it's tracking right alongside plummeted. When people estimate a 35% week-to-week drop from the biggest week of the year to the first week after the holidays (you know, like the one you made that would get it to 500 million in two weeks) they are not making predictions consistent with how the films it's tracking alongside have done in the past, they are making ones consistent with ridiculously leggy movies like Forrest Gump or Titanic--ones with 7.8x or higher multipliers.. So while the numbers are hugely impressive by themselves, people expecting Avatar to reach goals like Titanic domestically (or even beat TDK, necessarily) should not be celebrating average drops, they should be looking for some sign of unnatural, well-below-average drops, or even increases. Remember, Titanic increased on New Year's Eve.
 
Sharp said:
I agree, but, well... let me put it this way. It has been having pretty "normal" drops and holds so far--above-average for a big blockbuster, but well in line with many other Christmas movies--and raking in big numbers, but for some reason it seems like people expect it to suddenly stop having normal drops after the holidays, when most of those movies it's tracking right alongside plummeted.
There's a "normal" drop/hold, and there's the kind of performance movies with $77m opening weekends have. You are comparing the performance of movies with much smaller weekly and daily takes to one that's just set the record for most consecutive days over $10m.

Blockbusters have a fairly predictable pattern to them, and Avatar is not following that pattern, in any way shape or form. It's easy to increase on New Year's Eve when you are making half what Avatar did each day.

Week 1 | 137,094,051
Week 2 | 146,692,023

Difference | 9,597,972
Increase | 7%

Is there any other movie that made $100m or more its first week and still increased in its second week? Honest question. I can't think of any to even look up.
 
GhaleonEB said:
There's a "normal" drop/hold, and there's the kind of performance movies with $77m opening weekends have. You are comparing the performance of movies with much smaller weekly and daily takes to one that's just set the record for most consecutive days over $10m.

Blockbusters have a fairly predictable pattern to them, and Avatar is not following that pattern, in any way shape or form. It's easy to increase on New Year's Eve when you are making half what Avatar did each day.

Week 1 | 137,094,051
Week 2 | 146,692,023

Difference | 9,597,972
Increase | 7%

Is there any other movie that made $100m or more its first week and still increased in its second week? Honest question. I can't think of any to even look up.
No, but there are only 44 movies that have even made $100m or more in their first week. The last time there was an opportunity like this one (where Christmas fell on a Friday and maximized profit potential by basically transitioning from a completely nonholiday week to a completely holiday week while still allowing a movie to open on the Friday before and actually have a good chance to gross $100 million) was 1998, generally considered the best comparison year for drops. In 1998, however, a grand total of two movies had made $100 million in their first week: Independence Day (1996) and The Lost World: Jurassic Park (1997); 42 have done it since. Since movies with bad legs have huge dropoffs after their first weekend these days, any movie that goes up in its second week has good legs, so what you want is at minimum a $400 million grosser that opened to over $100 million, which is going to restrict your choice of films severely: only seven films have even made $400 million, and two of them (Titanic and Spider-Man 1) didn't open to $100 million. The other movies on the list are all sequels / prequels, and were therefore pretty frontloaded, with the exception of Shrek 2: The Dark Knight, Transformers 2, Pirates of the Caribbean 2, Phantom Menace, and Shrek 2. And that is yet another, great reason why I think the charts comparing the legs of TDK or LOTR to Avatar is a bit silly; it isn't tracking like them and I don't think anybody ever really said it was. If you're arguing that it has WAY better legs than modern blockbusters (within the last ten years) then sure, I agree and I think everyone does at this point. But like I said in previous posts, having way better legs than modern blockbusters isn't enough to beat Titanic, it has to have better legs than almost all old blockbusters as well, from a time when "blockbuster" didn't normally mean opening to $100 million.

In any case, we don't need to compare Avatar to blockbusters at all, since it is tracking like a lot of smaller Christmas movies, especially ones from '98 (think You've Got Mail). And the majority of those had, for better or worse, pretty steep drops after the holidays, which would suggest that Avatar will probably do the same. If it had done something unexpected like go up on New Year's Eve, that would have been a good sign that it was going to have abnormal legs and all these comparisons would be being thrown out the window right now, but... it didn't.
 
Sharp said:
If it had done something unexpected like go up on New Year's Eve, that would have been a good sign that it was going to have abnormal legs and all these comparisons would be being thrown out the window right now, but... it didn't.

But its already shown many signs of being anything but typical, and having abnormal legs. Theres the 7% second week INCREASE, theres the almost non-existant day to day drops during the weekends and again during the weeks, and then theres the possibility that this might have an outside chance of a THIRD straight $70M weekend. Its already completely unpredictable, so trying to use other regularly performing blockbusters as a gauge is a futile exercise. Like Titanic, there is no barometer here.
 
GhaleonEB said:
I don't want no Avatar 2 or 3. :(

The story is perfectly self-contained. I want Cameron to move on, though I suspect he won't.
I feel the same way. I just want an hour lager version, with 1000 hours:lol of extras, and I'd happily pay $50+ for a special BD of it!. Even if Cameron's is on for directing both I still don't want any sequels. It's find the way it is!
It needs to be an hour longer though
:lol
 
Sharp said:
No, but there are only 44 movies that have even made $100m or more in their first week.
There you go. This. Is. My. Point.

Sharp said:
If it had done something unexpected like go up on New Year's Eve, that would have been a good sign that it was going to have abnormal legs and all these comparisons would be being thrown out the window right now, but... it didn't.
First Sunday to Monday decrease: -33.8%
Christmas Eve drop: -32.2%

These are also normal drops. Did they foretell how Avatar's legs were in subsequent days? Were you proclaiming a normal cadence from that point forward? Why are you looking at one day's percentage and concluding the remainder of its domestic box office run from it? Even in Avatar's short run so far, it's clear that's not a good basis for projection.

Right now Avatar is tracking $67m behind The Dark Knight. Assuming it stops catching up (it caught up $16m the past two days), and just matches TDK from here on out, Avatar finishes up with $466m domestic. The way it's actually tracking, it's likely to blow past $500m.

neoism said:
I feel the same way. I just want an hour lager version, with 1000 hours:lol of extras, and I'd happily pay $50+ for a special BD of it!. Even if Cameron's is on for directing both I still don't want any sequels. It's find the way it is!
It needs to be an hour longer though
:lol
Agree. I think a good 30 minutes or more of the stuff we know was cut would really go a long ways.
 
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