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Rottenwatch: AVATAR (82%)

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GhaleonEB said:
Speaking of circle jerks:

1. Avatar (Fox) Week 6 [3,141 Theaters]
Friday $9.1M (-12%), Saturday $16.3M (-5%), Wkd $35M, Est Cume $552M

2. Legion (Sony) NEW [2,476 Theaters]
Friday $6.7M, Saturday $7.0M, Wkd $18M
3. Book of Eli (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,111 Theaters]
Friday $5.0M (-57), Saturday $7.7M, Wkd $17M, Est Cume $62M.
4. The Tooth Fairy (Fox) NEW [3,344 Theaters]​
Overall estimate is low - that implies a 41% Sunday drop, which would be Avatar's largest. More likely to come in around $37m.

It's past TDK, and ~$45m from Titanic.

:D

Even with last Sunday's larger than normal take due to MLK holiday, the weekend estimate is still down only 18% from last week. Crazy long, blue legs.
I guessed Feb 3rd for titanics fall, but this weekend is higher than I figured...fucking unpredictable beast this film is.
 
Sharp said:
Yeah... $700m is going down for sure. Honestly I don't know how theaters are going to be able to justify getting rid of it for Alice considering how much profit they will be making by its twelfth week (their percentage of the profit goes up as time from release increases). Maybe a rerelease is in our future.
I don't think Alice will be getting as many screens as it originally would have...not a huge difference but maybe an extra 300-400 stay for avatar. Also see 700 as a lock now at this point. I think it'll do 710-715.
 
Sharp said:
Yeah... $700m is going down for sure. Honestly I don't know how theaters are going to be able to justify getting rid of it for Alice considering how much profit they will be making by its twelfth week (their percentage of the profit goes up as time from release increases). Maybe a rerelease is in our future.
I've been wondering about that. If Alice turns out to be very front-loaded, wouldn't it make sense for some 3D screens to dump Alice after a few weeks and bring Avatar back? Or is there another 3D feature in the pipe that will come in after Alice?

Somnia said:
I guessed Feb 3rd for titanics fall, but this weekend is higher than I figured...fucking unpredictable beast this film is.
What gets me is the 5% drop from last weekend on Saturday. I mean, three new films opened. And it dips five percent.

I suppose it's worth noting that TDK made $10.5m it sixth weekend. Avatar's at 3.5x that performance now.
 
GhaleonEB said:
I've been wondering about that. If Alice turns out to be very front-loaded, wouldn't it make sense for some 3D screens to dump Alice after a few weeks and bring Avatar back? Or is there another 3D feature in the pipe that will come in after Alice?


What gets me is the 5% drop from last weekend on Saturday. I mean, three new films opened. And it dips five percent.

I suppose it's worth noting that TDK made $10.5m it sixth weekend. Avatar's at 3.5x that performance now.

How to Train Your Dragon = 25th March.
 
Mashing said:
There's no fucking way it doesn't.

Just for a point of reference as to how stupid the Academy is with technical Oscars:
SOUND (1996)

The English Patient -- Walter Murch, Mark Berger, David Parker, Chris Newman
Evita -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ken Weston
Independence Day -- Chris Carpenter, Bill W. Benton, Bob Beemer, Jeff Wexler
The Rock -- Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Keith A. Wester
Twister -- Steve Maslow, Gregg Landaker, Kevin O'Connell, Geoffrey Patterson


How do you justify that winning against Independence Day, The Rock, and Twister for sound? Ugh.

I hope it wins, but the tech categories are not always gimmes. But if Avatar gets LOTS of noms, it should then sweep the technical.
 
PhoncipleBone said:
Just for a point of reference as to how stupid the Academy is with technical Oscars:
SOUND (1996)

The English Patient -- Walter Murch, Mark Berger, David Parker, Chris Newman
Evita -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ken Weston
Independence Day -- Chris Carpenter, Bill W. Benton, Bob Beemer, Jeff Wexler
The Rock -- Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Keith A. Wester
Twister -- Steve Maslow, Gregg Landaker, Kevin O'Connell, Geoffrey Patterson


How do you justify that winning against Independence Day, The Rock, and Twister for sound? Ugh.

I hope it wins, but the tech categories are not always gimmes. But if Avatar gets LOTS of noms, it should then sweep the technical.

Point well taken. Still, AVATAR is so many leagues ahead of the rest of the hollywood, that I really can't fathom it being snubbed for best sound. It's been said before but the Hometree scene was ridiculous.
 
Mashing said:
Point well taken. Still, AVATAR is so many leagues ahead of the rest of the hollywood, that I really can't fathom it being snubbed for best sound. It's been said before but the Hometree scene was ridiculous.

The one Oscar I dont think there is any question of this winning is Visual Effects. I dont know why they would even bother nominating anything else really.

For further "huh" moments in Sound:
2001 (74th)
SOUND
Amélie -- Vincent Arnardi, Guillaume Leriche, Jean Umansky
Black Hawk Down -- Michael Minkler, Myron Nettinga, Chris Munro (deserved)
The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring -- Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Gethin Creagh, Hammond Peek
Moulin Rouge -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Roger Savage, Guntis Sics
Pearl Harbor -- Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Peter J. Devlin

2002 (75th)
SOUND
Chicago -- Michael Minkler, Dominick Tavella, David Lee
Gangs of New York -- Tom Fleischman, Eugene Gearty, Ivan Sharrock
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers -- Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges, Hammond Peek
Road to Perdition -- Scott Millan, Bob Beemer, John Patrick Pritchett
Spider-Man -- Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Ed Novick

2003 (76th)
SOUND MIXING
The Last Samurai -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Jeff Wexler
The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King -- Christopher Boyes, Michael Semanick, Michael Hedges and Hammond Peek
Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World -- Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Arthur Rochester
Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl -- Christopher Boyes, David Parker, David Campbell and Lee Orloff
Seabiscuit -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer and Tod A. Maitland

So the only fluke was Chicago. But 2001 one had some tough competition for Sound Oscars.
 
GhaleonEB said:
There you go. Thanks.

Avatar will be around $700m by the time Alice hits. 0_o
Now I feel bad for laughing at you predicting 25% drops and passing Titanic during week 7 while making 35 million a week :( Turns out you were off by quite a bit, but not in the direction I thought. Because, god damn it, this is 2010 and movies do not average 20% drops.
 
Sharp said:
Now I feel bad for laughing at you predicting 25% drops and passing Titanic during week 7 while making 35 million a week :( Turns out you were off by quite a bit, but not in the direction I thought. Because, god damn it, this is 2010 and movies do not average 20% drops.
Laughing at such a prediction was the sane and proper reaction. Crazy thing is, I was originally predicting 30% weekly drops, even after that second weekend. Which still would have been great. And that was off by half, or more. It's simply comedic at this point.
 
Scullibundo said:
Where has Pheonix Dark been of late? I haven't seen that wonderful avatar of his in any threads recently.
Speaking of which, after he got called out on his prediction in that thread, I told him that the "smart" bet would have been to say that Avatar won't hit $500mil... maybe.

Right now it looks like the smart bet would be that it won't hit $800mil! ...maybe.
 
PhoncipleBone said:
Just for a point of reference as to how stupid the Academy is with technical Oscars:
SOUND (1996)

The English Patient -- Walter Murch, Mark Berger, David Parker, Chris Newman
Evita -- Andy Nelson, Anna Behlmer, Ken Weston
Independence Day -- Chris Carpenter, Bill W. Benton, Bob Beemer, Jeff Wexler
The Rock -- Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell, Keith A. Wester
Twister -- Steve Maslow, Gregg Landaker, Kevin O'Connell, Geoffrey Patterson


How do you justify that winning against Independence Day, The Rock, and Twister for sound? Ugh.

.

I agree the Academy is a stupid organisation but...

Consider that the award was for sound mixing and not editing... Also know that not all members vote in the minor categories, unlike BEST PICTURE, so essentially it's possible for that category ONLY sound professionals were voting to decide which film had the best sound mix.

Walter Murch is a legend in Hollywood (Check him out on wiki) and duly respected amongst his voting peers for contributions to sound and picture editing. So it's no surprise espeically given the push for "English Patient" that year and it generally regarded amongst post production circles as being and excellent mix.

For Avatar, and for any film come oscar time, it's easier for a general audience to have sense of what they might regard as the strongest VFX but the subtleties of a great sound mix is probably beyond most of us...
 
$700M would be ridiculous. Shit, it took 11 years for a second movie to hit $500M, and 12 years for a second movie (Avatar in another week or so) to hit $600M. If it does hit $700M, it will hold that spot at least as long as Titanic did.
 
AVATAR= Worldwide: $1,718,989,686

This is unreal. I cannot believe this.
 
Solo said:
$700M would be ridiculous. Shit, it took 11 years for a second movie to hit $500M, and 12 years for a second movie (Avatar in another week or so) to hit $600M. If it does hit $700M, it will hold that spot at least as long as Titanic did.
Nah, I don't think so. I think to hold the domestic spot for twelve years it would have to spank the record like Titanic did and get like 900m. But it will definitely hold it for a long, long time, and the worldwide gross should be even more unassailable.
 
Sharp said:
Nah, I don't think so. I think to hold the domestic spot for twelve years it would have to spank the record like Titanic did and get like 900m. But it will definitely hold it for a long, long time, and the worldwide gross should be even more unassailable.
True. World-wide, nothing came within $700m of Titanic in all those 12 years. Now Avatar is going to plop another $300m or more on top of that record.

Speaking of which, BOM updated with a $36m weekend estimate for Avatar.

Domestic: $552,797,000
+ Foreign: $1,193,042,686
= Worldwide: $1,745,839,686

They'll update international estimated weekend earnings in a few hours; right now Avatar is $97m from breaking Titanic's WW record. Last weekend, it made $125m internationally, so it's quite possible we'll see the record go down shortly.
 
GhaleonEB said:
True. World-wide, nothing came within $700m of Titanic in all those 12 years. Now Avatar is going to plop another $300m or more on top of that record.

Speaking of which, BOM updated with a $36m weekend estimate for Avatar.

Domestic: $552,797,000
+ Foreign: $1,193,042,686
= Worldwide: $1,745,839,686

They'll update international estimated weekend earnings in a few hours; right now Avatar is $97m from breaking Titanic's WW record. Last weekend, it made $125m internationally, so it's quite possible we'll see the record go down shortly.

History is about to be made, yo. It'd be disappointing if Titanic's record doesn't go down this weekend. :P Passing it on monday or whatever would be less dramatic.
 
2 Avatar Fox $552,797,000 2009
3 The Dark Knight WB $533,345,358 2008
quaritchTDK.jpg
 
Damn, people before didnt even think Avatar had a chance at beating TDK, now it will not only beat it, but obliterate it AND end up beating Titanic.

Its just hilarious how the Avatar reception has turned out to be pretty much EXACTLY the same as Titanic when it was released.
 
Dead said:
Its just hilarious how the Avatar reception has turned out to be pretty much EXACTLY the same as Titanic when it was released.

Except for the screaming hordes of teenage girls and news reports saying the only way it made so much money was girls going to see Leo. But money and critical reception wise, it is pretty damn identical.
 
International estimates just came in. Avatar is 2m shy of titanic, but after domestic actuals and international actuals come in it will have beaten in today IMO. International has been under estimated by 3-4m every week.

Chinas loss of 2d hurt probably, but most theaters there should have it back up and going this week.
 
I wonder if it's safe to say that James Cameron movies have grossed more money than any other director in history of movies. Hell, it might've been safe to say that before Avatar released. The man just prints money.
 
FirewalkR said:
http://www.usatoday.com/life/movies/news/2010-01-24-boxoffice24_N.htm

That's what I'm seeing cited on the BOM forums, but nothing official yet.

Another report here: http://twitter.com/giteshpandya

Avatar makes $107M intl this wknd for $1.288B cume. Global now $1.841B just 2 mil shy of Titanic's record $1.843B

Having Avatar top Titanic after the weekend is revised up a couple million would be even more anti-climactic than beating it on Monday. :lol
 
Mashing said:
I wonder if it's safe to say that James Cameron movies have grossed more money than any other director in history of movies. Hell, it might've been safe to say that before Avatar released. The man just prints money.
Spielberg and Lucas have both generated more money than Cameron, in the former's case significantly so.
 
Mashing said:
I wonder if it's safe to say that James Cameron movies have grossed more money than any other director in history of movies. Hell, it might've been safe to say that before Avatar released. The man just prints money.

He doesn't make that many though.
 
Mashing said:
I wonder if it's safe to say that James Cameron movies have grossed more money than any other director in history of movies. Hell, it might've been safe to say that before Avatar released. The man just prints money.

What about Lucas? 6 Star Wars movies, plus the Indy films?
 
Sharp said:
Spielberg and Lucas have both generated more money than Cameron, in the former's case significantly so.

Well, in Spielberg's case just by the sheer amount of movies he makes. Lucas, would be the only one in Cameron's league that doesn't make a lot of movies.

I guess a more interesting indicator would be their per movie gross.

Still, I'd put Spielberg, Lucas and Cameron in the top 3, the order is the only thing in question.
 
boxofficedojo says that as a director Cameron is no.5 behind Spielberg, Zemeckis, Ron Howard and George Lucas. For averages, he's behind Lucas and Andrew Adamson of the Shrek films.
 
Not sure if you guys remember, but a little while ago cvxfreak offered to pick up a few copies of the Japanese movie program for AVATAR. I got mine yesterday and it DID NOT DISAPPOINT.

Huge glossy pages, high quality, overall it is fantastic.

Thanks again goes to cvxfreak for hooking up a few of us fellow AVATAR fans.

:D
 
ryutaro's mama said:
Not sure if you guys remember, but a little while ago cvxfreak offered to pick up a few copies of the Japanese movie program for AVATAR. I got mine yesterday and it DID NOT DISAPPOINT.

Huge glossy pages, high quality, overall it is fantastic.

Thanks again goes to cvxfreak for hooking up a few of us fellow AVATAR fans.

:D

I'll echo all of this. The program is beyond fantastic. Much appreciated, sir.
 
ryutaro's mama said:
Not sure if you guys remember, but a little while ago cvxfreak offered to pick up a few copies of the Japanese movie program for AVATAR. I got mine yesterday and it DID NOT DISAPPOINT.

Huge glossy pages, high quality, overall it is fantastic.

Thanks again goes to cvxfreak for hooking up a few of us fellow AVATAR fans.

:D
Mine should be here Monday. Glad they are awesome :D Thanks again cvx!
 
Mashing said:
Well, in Spielberg's case just by the sheer amount of movies he makes. Lucas, would be the only one in Cameron's league that doesn't make a lot of movies.

I guess a more interesting indicator would be their per movie gross.

Still, I'd put Spielberg, Lucas and Cameron in the top 3, the order is the only thing in question.

Spielberg has several movies of the top grossing of all time.
 
Solo said:
Someone get over to DM's house and make sure he hasnt suicided!
Don't worry. If he hasn't committed suicide after T-Mac's vagina burst during a live game once, he won't over this.
 
I also gotta say, this movie's phenomenal success is much more of an achievement for Cameron as a director than Titanic. In Titanic, he had Leo, who was probably responsible for quite a large percentage of the total gross. He could have had the same romantic story, but if he didn't have the actor all girls wanted to see over and over again, he wouldn't have made 1.8 billion. He had merit (as well as his casting directors) in choosing Leo though lol.

Now, with Avatar, it was his story (no matter how stereotypical it is, lots of stories are, and at some point most of them are the same), his world, his vision, his unwillingness to compromise for less than the final result, that got these results. This movie is making people go see it so many times because it takes them on an otherwise impossible, incredible and fully immersive journey. Weta's achievements are a large part of the success BUT Cameron pushed them, and everyone working with him, to the max.
 
Finally saw it tonight. That shit was fantastic! I had a fun time getting sucked into the movies universe. I can see why all my friends and family have been telling me to go see it. I wish I could have seen it in an IMAX theater, but oh well.
 
Timbuktu said:
boxofficedojo says that as a director Cameron is no.5 behind Spielberg, Zemeckis, Ron Howard and George Lucas. For averages, he's behind Lucas and Andrew Adamson of the Shrek films.

who holds this title for actors? I figure it is probably someone that was in all 6 Star Wars movies. Was there anyone that was in both Avatar and Titanic?
 
Ninja Scooter said:
who holds this title for actors? I figure it is probably someone that was in all 6 Star Wars movies. Was there anyone that was in both Avatar and Titanic?

The Harry Potter kids.
 
Ninja Scooter said:
who holds this title for actors? I figure it is probably someone that was in all 6 Star Wars movies. Was there anyone that was in both Avatar and Titanic?
Number one is Samuel L. Jackson right now, just for all the bit parts in huge things he has done. Biggest main star is Harrison Ford with a bullet as far as I remember.

EDIT: Here is the chart from boxofficemojo

1 Tom Hanks $3,530.9 35 $100.9 Forrest Gump $329.7
2 Eddie Murphy $3,475.2 35 $99.3 Shrek 2 $441.2
3 Harrison Ford $3,419.5 32 $106.9 Star Wars $461.0
4 Robin Williams $2,961.2 43 $68.9 Night at the Museum $250.9
5 Tom Cruise $2,795.4 29 $96.4 War of the Worlds $234.3
6 Morgan Freeman $2,788.1 43 $64.8 The Dark Knight $533.3
7 Bruce Willis $2,593.4 47 $55.2 Sixth Sense $293.5
8 Will Smith $2,520.9 19 $132.7 Independence Day $306.2
9 Samuel L. Jackson $2,380.9 52 $45.8 Revenge of the Sith $380.3
10 Jim Carrey $2,337.3 22 $106.2 The Grinch $260.0
11 John Travolta $2,325.5 41 $56.7 Grease $188.4
12 Julia Roberts $2,312.3 33 $70.1 Ocean's Eleven $183.4
13 Robert DeNiro $2,288.4 59 $38.8 Meet the Fockers $279.3
14 Orlando Bloom $2,279.6 11 $207.2 Dead Man's Chest $423.3
15 Cameron Diaz $2,251.0 25 $90.0 Shrek 2 $441
 
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