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[THE:MILKMAN]

Probably $500 if you want to have some quality engineering and not a launch 360 like situation. But that's now, not in a year or more.

My money is on $400, 2GB unified fast RAM, 2013 launch and a CPU/GPU combo that doesn't use much more than ~120 watts.(The brain stew recipe

$1billion says MS will have learned from their RROD mistake

I'm sure Microsoft's lawyers will put a condition in the Foxconn contract that if a RROD happens, it's their problem!

 

[Digital-Hero]

My money is on $400, 2GB unified fast RAM, 2013 launch and a CPU/GPU combo that doesn't use much more than ~120 watts.(The brain stew recipe



I'm sure Microsoft's lawyers will put a condition in the Foxconn contract that if a RROD happens, it's their problem!

More like the opposite since the RROD was a design flaw and not a manufacturing one.

 

[duk]

My money is on $400, 2GB unified fast RAM, 2013 launch and a CPU/GPU combo that doesn't use much more than ~120 watts.(The brain stew recipe

I'm sure Microsoft's lawyers will put a condition in the Foxconn contract that if a RROD happens, it's their problem!

120watts aint gonna happen just yet... they prob have a transistor budget of around 4b at 32nm and ~220 watts... launch 360s ran at 200 someone said

 

[DieH@rd]

They need to aim for 200w.

Launch ps3's worked at 200+ watts, and their superior cooling system proved to be efficient and silent.

 

[[Nintex]]

My money is on $400, 2GB unified fast RAM, 2013 launch and a CPU/GPU combo that doesn't use much more than ~120 watts.(The brain stew recipe



I'm sure Microsoft's lawyers will put a condition in the Foxconn contract that if a RROD happens, it's their problem!

I remember when a tech-site asked an Asian engineer to open up the launch Xbox 360 and had him look at the insides to see what could be improved and what caused the RROD. The results were not pretty.

In this case MS will most likely go with a 28nm AMD 7000-based GPU part. One of the main features of AMD's Graphics Core Next Gen is less power consumption and heat.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

120watts aint gonna happen just yet... they prob have a transistor budget of around 4b at 32nm and ~220 watts... launch 360s ran at 200 someone said

Agree with this, I expect a repeat of the 360's original wattage.

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

More like the opposite since the RROD was a design flaw and not a manufacturing one.

Well yeah, there is that............

They need to aim for 200w.

Launch ps3's worked at 200+ watts, and their superior cooling system proved to be efficient and silent.

I thought the consensus was that neither MS or Sony are going to repeat what they did this gen.(For many reasons)

 

[thuway]

You are listing good looking games. We will not get an insane leap forward, people have to realize that. We will get higher details and resolutions, including things we saw in the UE demo. In realtime it will be fantastic, assuming it will run smooth at a high resolution with antialiasing. This is what I except from the new consoles. Witcher 2 graphics without any cutbacks. Achievable witht todays tech in "console form" if you know what I mean.

Believe it or not, thats not good good enough to warrant a generational leap. Most consumers will just balk and stick to their old consoles. I know I would. Sony and MS could both seriously hurt the industry by releasing under powered consoles. It's better to wait a little while and release something thats cheap and more powerful; than release now with only 50% potential and a moderate price tag.

Sometimes I just don't understand GAF. We will have these consoles for the next 6-7 years. Why wouldn't you just wait a little while longer and insure yourself a target (Samaritan, true 1080p with high amounts of AA, lots of tesselation) than release a half ass system that will do everything but at 720p with almost no AA, and a ton of 30 fps games :-/.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

I thought the consensus was that neither MS or Sony are going to repeat what they did this gen.(For many reasons)

Not launching at $599 or avoiding RROD doesn't mean they're going to have a 100-watt console at launch either.

 

[derFeef]

Believe it or not, thats not good good enough to warrant a generational leap. Most consumers will just balk and stick to their old consoles. I know I would. Sony and MS could both seriously hurt the industry by releasing under powered consoles. It's better to wait a little while and release something thats cheap and more powerful; than release now with only 50% potential and a moderate price tag.

May I ask what you would consider a generational leap? Samaritan demo seemed pretty good to me.

 

[thuway]

Not launching at $599 or avoiding RROD doesn't mean they're going to have a 100-watt console at launch either.

Exactly. Microsoft's model was absolutely amazing this gen, except they fucking botched the shit out of reliability. They would have been profitable within their second year if they hadn't dealt with RROD. $599 won't happen, but a $499 cost to manufacture might.

Until I see at the very least -

Cell w/ 4 PPUs, 32 PPEs
4-6 GB of fast RAM
6990 or GTX 590 X 1.5 at 28-20nm
Bluray XL
$399 / $349

I won't be happy. This will give you you Samaritan, 1080p, 60 fps, tesselated freakshow. Early 2014, insane launch titles, call it a day.

 

[[Nintex]]

Exactly. Microsoft's model was absolutely amazing this gen, except they fucking botched the shit out of reliability. They would have been profitable within their second year if they hadn't dealt with RROD. $599 won't happen, but a $499 cost to manufacture might.

Until I see at the very least -

Cell w/ 4 PPUs, 32 PPEs
4-6 GB of fast RAM
6990 or GTX 590 X 1.5 at 28-20nm
Bluray XL
$399 / $349

I won't be happy. This will give you you Samaritan, 1080p, 60 fps, tesselated freakshow. Early 2014, insane launch titles, call it a day.

Why would you want a 6990? The AMD 7000-based chips will smoke it.

 

[thuway]

May I ask what you would consider a generational leap? Samaritan demo seemed pretty good to me.

Samaritan is gorgeous. Running Samaritan at 1080p with all the effects turned on in the video? That won't happen on paltry 2 GB GDDR5 with a 6970 equivalent no matter how much optimization.

 

[guek]

I won't be happy.

Well, at least you're not deluding yourself

 

[THE:MILKMAN]

Not launching at $599 or avoiding RROD doesn't mean they're going to have a 100-watt console at launch either.

What performance/specs do you expect the CPU/GPUS to pack with ~200 watts?

 

[thuway]

Why would you want a 6990? The AMD 7000-based chips will smoke it.

I didn't say I want a 6990, I said I want an equivalent. The 6990 is TWO 6950 cards in power. To get the 1.5 X 6990, we'd have to wait for the 8000 series cards at the very least for a decent, moderately sized, single card solution.

What performance/specs do you expect the CPU/GPUS to pack with ~200 watts?

An AMD 6990 consumes 375-450 Watts. :-/

 

[thuway]

Well, at least you're not deluding yourself

In late 2013, early 2014- what could you see as a potential $499 build?

 

[derFeef]

7000 series is rumored for the new Xbox so you got one point already. And we knew what they squeezed out of a radeon 1900 equivalent. Just because you need such a card in your PC to make games look great, it does not mean you need it for the consoles. Closed systems work a bit different and you have a lot of headroom there.

 

[BurntPork]

Exactly. Microsoft's model was absolutely amazing this gen, except they fucking botched the shit out of reliability. They would have been profitable within their second year if they hadn't dealt with RROD. $599 won't happen, but a $499 cost to manufacture might.

Until I see at the very least -

Cell w/ 4 PPUs, 32 PPEs
4-6 GB of fast RAM
6990 or GTX 590 X 1.5 at 28-20nm
Bluray XL
$399 / $349

I won't be happy. This will give you you Samaritan, 1080p, 60 fps, tesselated freakshow. Early 2014, insane launch titles, call it a day.

You won't be happy. What you're asking for won't be possible until late 2014 at the absolute earliest, and that's being optimistic. 20nm won't be used in PC graphics cards until early 2014, and that's if TSMC doesn't end up delaying it. Either add another year to your wait, or lower your expectations to something more realistic. (6970 or 580 x 1-1.5 @28nm)

 

[[Nintex]]

I didn't say I want a 6990, I said I want an equivalent. The 6990 is TWO 6950 cards in power. To get the 1.5 X 6990, we'd have to wait for the 8000 series cards at the very least for a decent, moderately sized, single card solution.

What they can do with the rumored specs will blow your mind.

7000 series is rumored for the new Xbox so you got one point already. And we knew what they squeezed out of a radeon 1900 equivalent. Just because you need such a card in your PC to make games look great, it does not mean you need it for the consoles. Closed systems work a bit different and you have a lot of headroom there.

It's capped at 1080p for the time being as well so anything remotely modern and performance based they'll throw in there will yield great results.

 

[thuway]

You won't be happy. What you're asking for won't be possible until late 2014 at the absolute earliest, and that's being optimistic. 20nm won't be used in PC graphics cards until early 2014, and that's if TSMC doesn't end up delaying it. Either add another year to your wait, or lower your expectations to something more realistic. (6970 or 580 x 1-1.5 @28nm)

Is it impossible to believe that launch units would be larger, more power hungry, with an immediate dye shrink followed to 20 nm when the time comes?

 

[guek]

In late 2013, early 2014- what could you see as a potential $499 build?

I don't see a new xbox any later than 2013. I also don't think MS will make a console that costs $500 to manufacture and eat $100 on each one sold. I don't think the new xbox will cost more than $400 to manufacture or sell for more than $350.

 

[derFeef]

I didn't say I want a 6990, I said I want an equivalent. The 6990 is TWO 6950 cards in power. To get the 1.5 X 6990, we'd have to wait for the 8000 series cards at the very least for a decent, moderately sized, single card solution.

An AMD 6990 consumes 375-450 Watts. :-/

And what does that have to do with a console GPU solution?

 

[liquidspeed]

Why cant they have a $399 and a $499 model? I think $399 is mass market, at least for the early adapters....

 

[BurntPork]

I didn't say I want a 6990, I said I want an equivalent. The 6990 is TWO 6950 cards in power. To get the 1.5 X 6990, we'd have to wait for the 8000 series cards at the very least for a decent, moderately sized, single card solution.




An AMD 6990 consumes 375-450 Watts. :-/

It's two slightly underclocked 6970s. They're still faster than two 6950s.

Seriously, you're setting yourself up for extreme disappointment.

 

[guek]

Why cant they have a $399 and a $499 model? I think $399 is mass market, at least for the early adapters....

mass market =/= early adopters

 

[venne]

Sometimes I just don't understand GAF. We will have these consoles for the next 6-7 years. Why wouldn't you just wait a little while longer and insure yourself a target (Samaritan, true 1080p with high amounts of AA, lots of tesselation) than release a half ass system that will do everything but at 720p with almost no AA, and a ton of 30 fps games :-/.

If we wait as long as you're speculating, 2014, I would want a 4K capable machine and I don't see that happening.

I don't want a current geb console for the next six or seven years. It's already pretty much a party, family machine already. In three years, it won't even be that. We'll probably sit around in a circle playing on our smartphones instead if this lazy cycle continues.

There's a lot of stuff encroaching on the console space. These companies would be wise to get out ahead of the looming storm.

 

[thuway]

Why cant they have a $399 and a $499 model? I think $399 is mass market, at least for the early adapters....

$399 is just affordable enough to not offend anyone. $499 is pushing it. Besides, if you think smart, both Sony and MS will have online subscription services that can easily subsidize costs. People seem to ignore that when throwing out these numbers.

This is why I think both MS and Sony can launch with significant losses (100-150 dollars). One first party game sold (Halo), and one year of online, and you already have 2/3rds caught up. In 1 year, you'll lose 50 dollars, by year 2, your in profit. Just like the 360 was supposed to.

 

[[Nintex]]

Why cant they have a $399 and a $499 model? I think $399 is mass market, at least for the early adapters....

MS will aim for $399 with one of their SKU's I think. It makes sense to do so.

 

[liquidspeed]

mass market =/= early adopters

History has shown that at least the first 10 Million will bit the bullet at 399 ....... their could be price drops after that point

 

[thuway]

History has shown that at least the first 10 Million will bit the bullet at 399 ....... their could be price drops after that point

$499 is a bitch slap to the face. Besides people will spend $499 irrespectively.

$399 console
$49 / year online
$59 game

 

[BurntPork]

Is it impossible to believe that launch units would be larger, more power hungry, with an immediate dye shrink followed to 20 nm when the time comes?

At 28nm, what you're asking for is... Actually, it might not even be possible. The 7000 series doesn't come close to it (the top single GPU looks to be more like 75-80% of a 6990), so the top 8000-series single GPU card will probably only manage to match the 6990 and will consume more than 200W. Do you really think that there might be a 300W console?

 

[liquidspeed]

$499 is a bitch slap to the face. Besides people will spend $499 irrespectively.

$399 console
$49 / year online
$59 game

IM just saying that with a 499 model they could include more tech...while last gen the companies absorbed excessive losses.... with the ps3, sony lost 300 or more per unit sold.. but in most generations, the companies start out with an 80 - 100 dollar deficit. which would mean that they could use $ 599 worth of 2012 tech

 

[liquidspeed]

At 28nm, what you're asking for is... Actually, it might not even be possible. The 7000 series doesn't come close to it (the top single GPU looks to be more like 75-80% of a 6990), so the top 8000-series single GPU card will probably only manage to match the 6990 and will consume more than 200W. Do you really think that there might be a 300W console?

PS3 was a 300ish watt console

 

[thuway]

IM just saying that with a 499 model they could include more tech...while last gen the companies absorbed excessive losses.... with the ps3, sony lost 300 or more per unit sold.. but in most generations, the companies start out with an 80 - 100 dollar deficit. which would mean that they could use $ 599 worth of 2012 tech

Your limited not by the cost to manufacture, but by other things as well. The complexity of the mother board, the heat generated, the size to ship the damn thing, larger fan size, and most importantly- RELIABILITY.

An extra 100 dollars to a build might next you more RAM, but in GPU terms, its quite a headache.

Also no one is buying a $499 anything anymore.

 

[thuway]

PS3 was a 300ish watt console

I love your optimism, but no. The original PS3 at peak power was 200 watts. It had a 380 watt power supply. Until we get to 20nm (if TSMC delivers on time, which GAF seems to be divided on), this will be the only way to net us decent power profiles for the goals we want.

 

[gatti-man]

Believe it or not, thats not good good enough to warrant a generational leap. Most consumers will just balk and stick to their old consoles. I know I would. Sony and MS could both seriously hurt the industry by releasing under powered consoles. It's better to wait a little while and release something thats cheap and more powerful; than release now with only 50% potential and a moderate price tag.

Sometimes I just don't understand GAF. We will have these consoles for the next 6-7 years. Why wouldn't you just wait a little while longer and insure yourself a target (Samaritan, true 1080p with high amounts of AA, lots of tesselation) than release a half ass system that will do everything but at 720p with almost no AA, and a ton of 30 fps games :-/.

A 2012 console will run Samaritan, be true 1080p with plenty of AA. Your never getting 60fps console games. Your post shows you lack basic understanding of tech. Waiting a year or two won't yield double overall game performance. More like 10-20%. a 2012 console certainly won't be half assed.

Your limited not by the cost to manufacture, but by other things as well. The complexity of the mother board, the heat generated, the size to ship the damn thing, larger fan size, and most importantly- RELIABILITY.

An extra 100 dollars to a build might next you more RAM, but in GPU terms, its quite a headache.

Also no one is buying a $499 anything anymore.

Goodness wrong again. $100 extra per console in the scale of millions can affect a large portion of the console. Also yes people spend $499-599 all day (laptops, unlocked cell phones, iPads, xooms, trips). Many times people on this forum make the mistake that since 499-599 is too much for them to afford it holds true for the majority of launch buyers. This is incorrect.

 

[thuway]

A 2012 console will run Samaritan, be true 1080p with plenty of AA. Your never getting 60fps console games. Your post shows you lack basic understanding of tech. Waiting a year or two won't yield double overall game performance. More like 10-20%. a 2012 console certainly won't be half assed.

A dye shrink will yield far more than that in terms of performance, per watt.

 

[RaijinFY]

PS3 was a 300ish watt console

More like 200w.

 

[gatti-man]

A dye shrink will yield far more than that in terms of performance, per watt.

What dye shrink? 28nm is now.

 

[RedSwirl]

The next round of consoles is an evolution of what we have today. They won't have to hit reset or invent the HD console like they had to do last time. Instead, they can do what they're doing now without the current RAM and GPU limitations. And due to inflation and whatnot $200 in 2000 is probably $250/300 now. We've reached mass market, it's time to move on to bigger and better things. The gaming industry has to keep moving forward it's the only way it can be sustained because that's what they convinced us they are all about.

That's not the only thing I'm worried about. It's really the fact that console manufacturers more or less stop supporting their established platform that tens of millions of people already own as soon as a new expensive thing comes out. I just think things would be better if it were like the DVD-to-Blu-Ray transition where the old technology is still supported because of its massive install base while the new one is allowed to develop and build its base. Sony was basically forced to do this with the PS2 while the PS3 was still gaining steam because of how successful and widespread the PS2 was. The first year I owned a PS3 I mostly used it to play new PS2 games.

Really? I think people forget consumers have no problem spending money if the product is right. People spend $200 to upgrade their phones every year. I don't know many people that have their same PC from 5 years ago. Cars, iPad, MP3 players, TV's most people constantly upgrade these things and they are all top dollar products.

Stop being such cheap stakes people. 8-9 year old consoles suck.

I'm just going by adoption rates of past consoles. Most consoles historically don't build up the lion's share of their install base until two or three years in.

 

[duk]

we're not seeing cell in the next consoles so dont wish for it

we maybe at 28nm for pc parts but for unyielded console parts we're not going to start there. we're barely at 45nm now for consoles i believe. 32nm is the sweet starting spot.

 

[Psychotext]

Launch ps3's worked at 200+ watts, and their superior cooling system proved to be efficient and silent.

...and weighed a ton as well as costing a small fortune.

 

[thuway]

What dye shrink? 28nm is now.

I'm hoping for 20nm by the end of 2013.

...and weighed a ton as well as costing a small fortune.

You can thank Bluray and Cell for that. They added almost 250 dollars to the overall cost to manufacture.

 

[gatti-man]

I'm hoping for 20nm by the end of 2013.



You can thank Bluray and Cell for that. They added almost 250 dollars to the overall cost to manufacture.

That won't happen.

 

[itsgreen]

...and weighed a ton as well as costing a small fortune.

Yeah the problem is that every watt in that box has to be cooled.

When they started designing the 720 the power consumption frame work was set.

Just as a target price and target size were set.

And the beauty is that they are all co-dependent.

Obviously Nintendo went to the lower end of those scales considering that the WiiU has similar dimensions as the Wii has.

Although far from an exact science the dimensions of the box will give an indication to the power consumption and raw power of the machine. But by the time we'll see the design every spec has been confirmed and leaked... so we will already know...

 

[thuway]

Yeah the problem is that every watt in that box has to be cooled.

When they started designing the 720 the power consumption frame work was set.

Just as a target price and target size were set.

And the beauty is that they are all co-dependent.

Obviously Nintendo went to the lower end of those scales considering that the WiiU has similar dimensions as the Wii has.

Although far from an exact science the dimensions of the box will give an indication to the power consumption and raw power of the machine. But by the time we'll see the design every spec has been confirmed and leaked... so we will already know...

I really do wonder if console manufacturers will up the ante and go with 300-400 watts for their next box. I know GAF would scoff at this prediction, but if the Xbox Loop is to go with a 6990 at the very least (as rumored), it would require atleast that.

 

[Plinko]

Also yes people spend $499-599 all day (laptops, unlocked cell phones, iPads, xooms, trips). Many times people on this forum make the mistake that since 499-599 is too much for them to afford it holds true for the majority of launch buyers. This is incorrect.

Actually, I'm basing my feelings based on the PS3 launch. I think we all know how that went.

It has absolutely nothing to do with "not affording" a system.

Can we please stop with the "Hey, laptops/iPads are $500!" talking point? It isn't anywhere near applicable here.

A 2012 console will run Samaritan, be true 1080p with plenty of AA. Your never getting 60fps console games. Your post shows you lack basic understanding of tech. Waiting a year or two won't yield double overall game performance. More like 10-20%. a 2012 console certainly won't be half assed.

I think I disagree with this as well.

 

[BurntPork]

I'm hoping for 20nm by the end of 2013.

Keep in mind that it would take an extra 6-12 months before a new process could be considered for consoles. PC GPUs, mobile parts and the like are higher priorities for TSMC.

 

[DarkChild]

Can you just imagine Sony dumping Blu Ray(since every console has HDD) and spending money on better GPU and 512 megs more? Ports to 360 would be a pain in the ass, yet it would cost less.