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[-ImaginaryInsider]

What performance/specs do you expect the CPU/GPUS to pack with ~200 watts?

From the random speculation I've read, I think the Xbox-Next will be very similar to 360 die-size/budget, but with the of lack of a rush that caused the RROD design flaw. I'm not ruling out MS being more conservative this time around, just not that conservative.

 

[itsgreen]

I really do wonder if console manufacturers will up the ante and go with 300-400 watts for their next box. I know GAF would scoff at this prediction, but if the Xbox Loop is to go with a 6990 at the very least (as rumored), it would require atleast that.

No way. Would be way too much to cool down. That would need some serious cooling that would make serious noise. No normal person would want that next to their tv.

6990 performance is achievable with a lower clocked higher mid-end next gen graphics chip with elements of the architecture after that...

People shouldn't stare them self blind at 6990. It's just a performance indicator.

And comparing prices of a custom contract build console GPU with a full fledged PCI-e graphics card is just silly, especially when people say it isn't possible because the 6990 is so expensive...

 

[itsgreen]

From the random speculation I've read, I think the Xbox-Next will be very similar to 360 die-size/budget, but with the of lack of a rush that caused the RROD design flaw. I'm not ruling out MS being more conservative this time around, just not that conservative.

Well exactly. It was a cooling problem which caused RROD so there will be better heat management of the console and it will be more than needed probably...

 

[BurntPork]

No way. Would be way too much to cool down. That would need some serious cooling that would make serious noise. No normal person would want that next to their tv.

6990 performance is achievable with a lower clocked higher mid-end next gen graphics chip with elements of the architecture after that...

People shouldn't stare them self blind at 6990. It's just a performance indicator.

And comparing prices of a custom contract build console GPU with a full fledged PCI-e graphics card is just silly, especially when people say it isn't possible because the 6990 is so expensive...

This. Sony and MS want their consoles to be part of the living room. They won't go much higher than they did last gen. Sadly, that does mean that you won't see "6990 x1.5" under any circumstance.

 

[Proelite]

No way. Would be way too much to cool down. That would need some serious cooling that would make serious noise. No normal person would want that next to their tv.

6990 performance is achievable with a lower clocked higher mid-end next gen graphics chip with elements of the architecture after that...

People shouldn't stare them self blind at 6990. It's just a performance indicator.

And comparing prices of a custom contract build console GPU with a full fledged PCI-e graphics card is just silly, especially when people say it isn't possible because the 6990 is so expensive...

It's should be noted that games don't approach full efficient utilization of 6990s. A weaker card in a console is fully capable of besting it.

 

[DieH@rd]

For a 2012 launch, im rooting for a GPU with the processing equivalent of 560ti-6950/70. In console enviroment, that kind of gpu can blow away currentgen and modern PC's.

For 2013... gpu can go beyond that.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

It's should be noted that games don't approach full efficient utilization of 6990s. A weaker card in a console is fully capable of besting it.

Exactly, and we aren't going to need a 6690 to see a jump from the 7 year old tech we have now. There is such a thing as graphical fidelity, and even if a next-gen game is running at 720p, it's going to look significantly better than what we have now.

 

[duk]

6990 customized equivilent in a closed box ala 720 will be quite a monster

i bet they are doing a dual gpu right now to approximate the gpu, end unit will be a single core gpu likely

 

[Psychotext]

You can thank Bluray and Cell for that. They added almost 250 dollars to the overall cost to manufacture.

Sure, but I was talking about the cooling system specifically. Very expensive compared to what they used on later models.

 

[venne]

6990 customized equivilent in a closed box ala 720 will be quite a monster

i bet they are doing a dual gpu right now to approximate the gpu, end unit will be a single core gpu likely

It may be a dual gpu setup simply for system flexibility. Use both for graphics or split them up for graphics / physics or something else altogether.

I have two gpus in my desktop for graphics and physics. Granted the physics card is much older.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

i bet they are doing a dual gpu right now to approximate the gpu, end unit will be a single core gpu likely

It could be something like a customized 6670 (or less) equivalent that has some 6690-like features (like raster operation units), in an early dev-kit that would make sense.

 

[charlequin]

Also yes people spend $499-599 all day (laptops, unlocked cell phones, iPads, xooms, trips).

Launch buyers are irrelevant because launches are supply-constrained. There are always 6 million people who will buy the next console from any manufacturer at any idiot price (the $599 PS3 is an eternal testament to that), but the problems come in afterwards. The number of units you can sell at $499+ after a launch/holiday is far too small to support a global console business on, and assuming you're not just overcharging on a $250 BOM device to soak the early adopters, you don't have the margin to price drop and actually price your product at something that real people will buy.

Can we please stop with the "Hey, laptops/iPads are $500!" talking point? It isn't anywhere near applicable here.

People in these discussions tend to be confused about the distinction between a laptop/tablet (a computer) and a gaming console (a toy).

 

[Log4Girlz]

Launch buyers are irrelevant because launches are supply-constrained. There are always 6 million people who will buy the next console from any manufacturer at any idiot price (the $599 PS3 is an eternal testament to that), but the problems come in afterwards. The number of units you can sell at $499+ after a launch/holiday is far too small to support a global console business on, and assuming you're not just overcharging on a $250 BOM device to soak the early adopters, you don't have the margin to price drop and actually price your product at something that real people will buy.



People in these discussions tend to be confused about the distinction between a laptop/tablet (a computer) and a gaming console (a toy).

If anyone can create a $600 console that would sell it would be Microsoft. But they would need to make sure it runs Windows 8 which would qualify it as a general PC. Just sayin.

 

[Raistlin]

Keep in mind that it would take an extra 6-12 months before a new process could be considered for consoles. PC GPUs, mobile parts and the like are higher priorities for TSMC.

Not to mention those target high-margin items and can handle lower initial yields.

Console manufactures want yields as good as possible since they're selling high volumes at low, no, or negative margins. So even if they could get parts in quantity, they'd like to avoid being anywhere near a new process launch.

People in these discussions tend to be confused about the distinction between a laptop/tablet (a computer) and a gaming console (a toy).

The line between consoles being toys vs computers (or at least set-top boxes) continues to blur. And I think it will only get grayer next gen. They'll likely be closer to tablets in functionality and features than many are expecting.

 

[J-Rzez]

If anyone can create a $600 console that would sell it would be Microsoft. But they would need to make sure it runs Windows 8 which would qualify it as a general PC. Just sayin.

MS... or do you mean Apple? We all know Apple can do that. I mean, Sony themselves sold a good number of PS3's off the bat, and they don't have nearly as large of zombie fanbase that Apple has. MS though, I don't know how well it'd do. Probably the same as Sony, as MS has that percentage of people who will buy everything MS stamps their name on regardless if it's good or if they'd even use it (kinect/HD-DVD drive), but they wouldn't have the lasting sales numbers Apple would.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

People in these discussions tend to be confused about the distinction between a laptop/tablet (a computer) and a gaming console (a toy).

That point was originally brought up to show that $399 wasn't too expensive for a console, and in the context of that point, if the economy was that rough in the consumer electronic space, things like Ipods or Ipads wouldn't be selling like they are. Now anyone using a $600 Ipad to promote the idea that Sony/MS could get away with selling a $600 console is insane.

 

[bgassassin]

The line between consoles being toys vs computers (or at least set-top boxes) continues to blur. And I think it will only get grayer next gen. They'll likely be closer to tablets in functionality and features than many are expecting.

The line is definitely blurred, but the perception is that they are still a toy so to speak. I've made that point at well. We here know consoles can do more than just play games, but the general consumer doesn't acknowledge that nor seem to want to.

 

[charlequin]

The line between consoles being toys vs computers (or at least set-top boxes) continues to blur.

But the gap between set-top boxes and computers is immense. Nobody's developing interlocking productivity ecosystems on the Roku like they're doing on iOS. Nobody's going to justify buying their family a PS3 because their kids can compose music or edit video on it and the capability to do so is not going to emerge with the next generation of consoles either.

That point was originally brought up to show that $399 wasn't too expensive for a console, and in the context of that point, if the economy was that rough in the consumer electronic space, things like Ipods or Ipads wouldn't be selling like they are.

But, I mean, the point is that these products are valued very differently. iPads sell well at their high price because a) they're still a relatively new product that hasn't hit a normal market plateau yet, and b) because people consider the product in a context (as a computer, basically) in which such a price is considered reasonable.

 

[SolarPowered]

If anyone can create a $600 console that would sell it would be Microsoft. But they would need to make sure it runs Windows 8 which would qualify it as a general PC. Just sayin.

You overestimate their abilities.

It'd take them another two years to get to the point they are at now(360 is finally in lucrative adoption phase) and it'd be worse than Sony's case because they don't have such strong international selling power. It seems reckless compared to the incremental steps they've taken with the Xbox->Xbox 360 evolution.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

But, I mean, the point is that these products are valued very differently. iPads sell well at their high price because a) they're still a relatively new product that hasn't hit a normal market plateau yet, and b) because people consider the product in a context (as a computer, basically) in which such a price is considered reasonable.

I think there is a decent contingent of people that still have lots of disposable income to buy new tech items "just because", and who also view Ipads/consoles/smart phones/etc as toys. My point is solely aimed at "$399 being a killing blow for a console at launch", I think you'd see people cutting back a lot more in consumer electronic spending than what we have seen.

 

[charlequin]

I think there is a decent contingent of people that still have lots of disposable income to buy new tech items "just because", and who also view Ipads/consoles/smart phones/etc as toys.

Sure, of course there are, it's just also not relevant to the topic. The volume of sales something like an iPad generates -- and the price point that it's able to maintain -- are a result of its value proposition as a tool that's also very functional as a toy. This is the same way that personal computers took off as a home good for the middle class even back when they all cost $1000+ -- the value of the object as a productivity support and overall quality-of-life increase.

My point is solely aimed at "$399 being a killing blow for a console at launch", I think you'd see people cutting back a lot more in consumer electronic spending than what we have seen.

Again, consoles are not the same as things that are not consoles. A console is worth less than devices that people spend more money on than consoles. The reason that $499 would be a kiss of death for next-gen consoles isn't because people couldn't afford anything that costs that much money, it's that especially in a shitty economy with no consumer credit to speak of people think harder about the value of their purchases and therefore something that's purely an entertainment product (and one, like all launch consoles, with a particularly lousy value proposition) isn't going to stack up to products that better justify that kind of price.

I mean, really, none of this should be controversial. No console has ever sold well at $399 or above in the history of the industry. I can't even start to guess what makes people think a $599 system will do better now than in 200.

 

[Raistlin]

The line is definitely blurred, but the perception is that they are still a toy so to speak. I've made that point at well. We here know consoles can do more than just play games, but the general consumer doesn't acknowledge that nor seem to want to.

Look at the average age of gamers now ... and how many use services like Netflix and the like on their consoles. I think the perception has changed more than you think, and as more services and features continue to become ubiquitous between console, tablet, and PC ... the perception will continue to erode.

But the gap between set-top boxes and computers is immense. Nobody's developing interlocking productivity ecosystems on the Roku like they're doing on iOS. Nobody's going to justify buying their family a PS3 because their kids can compose music or edit video on it and the capability to do so is not going to emerge with the next generation of consoles either.

I completely agree. But the question is how many people actually use their tablets for productivity as you mention? Hell, how many people even use their PC's for that? There is a significant population that look at both for mostly video, music, gaming, email, and the web (mostly social networking and stuff like youtube). That's actually been the main argument for why the computing market is trending towards tablets in the first place.

Now think about those use-cases for a minute. Do they sound familiar? That's where consoles are trending. So the question becomes just how much of Windows 8 will be in the neXt box ... and how many new features and services (including potential Google crossovers) will be in PS4? I think in actual use, they're all moving much closer to a significant population than many give credit for.

 

[MrBelmontvedere]

Nobody's going to justify buying their family a PS3 because their kids can compose music or edit video on it and the capability to do so is not going to emerge with the next generation of consoles either.

I don't know about that. at least for superficial things like adding a clown border around the video.

still it will be shit compared to VirtualDub or Avisynth.

 

[charlequin]

I completely agree. But the question is how many people actually use their tablets for productivity as you mention?

It doesn't matter. It seriously, honestly doesn't. People are not going to suddenly decide that the next generation of systems are computer replacements and start dropping $600 on them. This is a complete fantasyland equivalency.

So the question becomes just how much of Windows 8 will be in the neXt box

Not any meaningful amount of it, for this discussion.

 

[bgassassin]

Look at the average age of gamers now ... and how many use services like Netflix and the like on their consoles. I think the perception has changed more than you think, and as more services and features continue to become ubiquitous between console, tablet, and PC ... the perception will continue to erode.

Oh yeah they definitely use the services, but those services aren't the motivating reason to purchase the console. Non-gamers bought Wii and the 360 because of the Wiimote and Kinect. On the flipside they buy tablets, laptops, and desktops because of the non-gaming features they provide. Just from personal experience, I bet a strong majority don't even know the console provides those services till they use the console.

 

[onQ123]

It doesn't matter. It seriously, honestly doesn't. People are not going to suddenly decide that the next generation of systems are computer replacements and start dropping $600 on them. This is a complete fantasyland equivalency.

I wouldn't be too sure of that! because if Kinect 2 , next PS Eye /Move or Wii U tablet give people a really easy way to control these consoles & all the media content that's going to be view-able on them, some people will see them as computer replacements.


in fact I think that's all three of these companies goals this time around better user interface for controlling your media & internet needs.

 

[higherARC05]

Now OXM is saying that the Next-XBOX will not be announced next year at E3.

Hmm so 2013-2014 is making a comeback.

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

Again, consoles are not the same as things that are not consoles.

I mean, really, none of this should be controversial. No console has ever sold well at $399 or above in the history of the industry. I can't even start to guess what makes people think a $599 system will do better now than in 200.

The length and breath of my point is this:

"$399 is not going to kill a console in the first year."

- My opinion that you'd see consumer spending on frivolous electronic devices be worse than what they are if $399 was too expensive was never intended to be a 1:1 comparison, it was a general point.

- For the supply starved first year, $399 is perfectly fine, especially if it's designed to be cost-reduced fairly quickly. Where did I say it was the ideal mass market price?

 

[RaijinFY]

Now OXM is saying that the Next-XBOX will not be announced next year at E3.

Hmm so 2013-2014 is making a comeback.

Logical... There's no way Microsoft can release a new XBOX next year. If it was the case, we would know a lot more imo.

 

[charlequin]

I wouldn't be too sure of that!

I would, because I'm basing my theories here on something vaguely approximating reality.

The length and breath of my point is this:

"$399 is not going to kill a console in the first year."

I never said it would. $399 is around the workable ceiling, at least if the system's designed not to be a money pit. I just object to the nonsensical iPad comparison stuff.

 

[StudioTan]

Now OXM is saying that the Next-XBOX will not be announced next year at E3.

Hmm so 2013-2014 is making a comeback.

That's because it'll be announced at CES in Jan

 

[dgrdsv]

Sounds totally plausible. The HD twins still have to hit the mass-market price-point, at least permanently, and the global economy is still utterly in the shitter, which reigns in pricey luxury purchases.
Geeks here push for 2012, but investors know that you'd have to be INSANE to kill your product when it still has growth, both real and potential.

Both HD consoles will loose a lot of current momentum once Wii U hit the market. Wii U is the main reason why we may get a new Xbox/PS next year. Competition is what's driving the market, not common sense or investors.

 

[Lord Error]

I really do wonder if console manufacturers will up the ante and go with 300-400 watts for their next box.

Wasn't launch fat PS3 drawing a 300W, or something close to it? Its power supply was 380W btw.

 

[onQ123]

I would, because I'm basing my theories here on something vaguely approximating reality.

& what would that reality be? can you honestly say that you know for sure what people are thinking when they buy new consoles?

if the browsers & all the apps work perfectly next time around with better control interfaces what's there to stop people from buying new console to do the things that they would have bought a PC for?

 

[Shtof]

Both HD consoles will loose a lot of current momentum once Wii U hit the market. Wii U is the main reason why we may get a new Xbox/PS next year. Competition is what's driving the market, not common sense or investors.

This is what you think, not what you know, right? I think people will be waiting for PS4/nextbox and Wii U going the way of the Dreamcast.

 

[Pachinko]

The more I think about these rumours the more it almost makes sense in a way. If MS brings out a new xbox console next november the 360 will be on the eve of it's 7th year of availability. That's a huge amount of time for a console to be available without a successor. Plus, it's not as though the 360 is just going to disappear overnight. They don't have the supply issues they did with the original xbox , so I'd expect to see 360's built right up until 2015 or even 2016. The new console will probably last until 2018.

It just actually seems like the right year to launch. Nintendo WILL be out next year with the new wii, sony is bleeding too much money as it is and launching the vita. They won't be in the picture until 2013 for sure. And I think this time they'll make a point of exceeding the specs of the other guys instead of basically matching them.

Either way, Wii U out in september with a huge launch (say 5 million shipped from sept-dec worldwide) , lots of software and a price of no more than 249.99 USD. Microsoft will have a hard drive using 360 available for 199.99 USD to compete and a 149.99 model with no HDD. In November I see them releasing this new xbox with only 1 limited edition model for 399.99 , 300,000 units day 1 and 100,000 more every week until the end of the year. Launch will be late november , perhaps just prior to black friday ? European launch will happen in february and japan won't see the system until the summer of 2013. Sure , chances are they won't sell super well but , much like the 360, it gets the system and some software out there and allows them to ramp up production faster to cut costs sooner so by the time the winter games season of 2013 rolls around and the PS4 launches , the wii U will have 200+ games (mostly ps3/360 ports) and the new xbox could have 100 games that will all look better than any ps4 launch title.

It's kind of a scenario I see only because MS already did it once so why would they delay a new xbox into 2013 and thus leave 8 years for the 360 and probably then 5 years or 6 years at best for the new console. It'll be harder to convince people to upgrade to a new system when a new playstation comes out within 30 days of the new xbox, not to mention giving the wii U free range on hardware superiority for a full year. It wont' be leagues better than a 360 or ps3 but I think it'll be a noticeable improvement and for those starved for a new home console, even with similar games many will jump. Especially those that bought a wii and enjoyed it. Some of these people already bought kinect or move but not THAT much.

 

[painful fart]

This is what you think, not what you know, right? I think people will be waiting for PS4/nextbox and Wii U going the way of the Dreamcast.

Agreed, the Wii U will be squeezed between the old and new gen HD consoles. Mario will likely be its primary weapon.

 

[ClovingWestbrook]

The more I think about these rumours the more it almost makes sense in a way. If MS brings out a new xbox console next november the 360 will be on the eve of it's 7th year of availability. That's a huge amount of time for a console to be available without a successor. Plus, it's not as though the 360 is just going to disappear overnight. They don't have the supply issues they did with the original xbox , so I'd expect to see 360's built right up until 2015 or even 2016. The new console will probably last until 2018.

It just actually seems like the right year to launch. Nintendo WILL be out next year with the new wii, sony is bleeding too much money as it is and launching the vita. They won't be in the picture until 2013 for sure. And I think this time they'll make a point of exceeding the specs of the other guys instead of basically matching them.

Either way, Wii U out in september with a huge launch (say 5 million shipped from sept-dec worldwide) , lots of software and a price of no more than 249.99 USD. Microsoft will have a hard drive using 360 available for 199.99 USD to compete and a 149.99 model with no HDD. In November I see them releasing this new xbox with only 1 limited edition model for 399.99 , 300,000 units day 1 and 100,000 more every week until the end of the year. Launch will be late november , perhaps just prior to black friday ? European launch will happen in february and japan won't see the system until the summer of 2013. Sure , chances are they won't sell super well but , much like the 360, it gets the system and some software out there and allows them to ramp up production faster to cut costs sooner so by the time the winter games season of 2013 rolls around and the PS4 launches , the wii U will have 200+ games (mostly ps3/360 ports) and the new xbox could have 100 games that will all look better than any ps4 launch title.

It's kind of a scenario I see only because MS already did it once so why would they delay a new xbox into 2013 and thus leave 8 years for the 360 and probably then 5 years or 6 years at best for the new console. It'll be harder to convince people to upgrade to a new system when a new playstation comes out within 30 days of the new xbox, not to mention giving the wii U free range on hardware superiority for a full year. It wont' be leagues better than a 360 or ps3 but I think it'll be a noticeable improvement and for those starved for a new home console, even with similar games many will jump. Especially those that bought a wii and enjoyed it. Some of these people already bought kinect or move but not THAT much.

Nintendo isn't releasing at $250. Come on. It will be $299 minimum (would prefer $350-400).

 

[-ImaginaryInsider]

It just actually seems like the right year to launch. Nintendo WILL be out next year with the new wii, sony is bleeding too much money as it is and launching the vita. They won't be in the picture until 2013 for sure. And I think this time they'll make a point of exceeding the specs of the other guys instead of basically matching them.

Another added benefit, at least from some the speculation on Beyond3d, is that it doesn't look like a one year difference in hardware will offer that much of a performance gain for the PS4, which we pretty much saw this generation. It's in MS interest to launch first and the become the default development platform that everything else is ported from.

 

[orioto]

Another added benefit, at least from some the speculation on Beyond3d, is that it doesn't look like a one year difference in hardware will offer that much of a performance gain for the PS4, which we pretty much saw this generation. It's in MS interest to launch first and the become the default development platform that everything else is ported from.

I still think the diminishing return will make any late release less efficient. And i'll take the Battlefield exemple again. Once you'll get enough power to "simulate" the maxed out version with proper framerate and pq, the "real deal" won't offer a big difference enough for most people.

 

[Dizzan]

Nintendo isn't releasing at $250. Come on. It will be $299 minimum (would prefer $350-400).

Who would prefer $350-$400? You or Nintendo?

Why would you prefer to have it released at a higher price?

 

[travisbickle]

$1billion says MS will have learned from their RROD mistake

I'd put a $20 on it happening again, if I was given good odds. Designing and engineering a games console is a difficult business, takes a lot of coordination and MSoft are fundamentally a software company.

The 360 is really the first attempt at something we would call a modern console, designed with the "reducing costs of production over time" model in mind, and they fucked up royally.

They need AAA grade engineers in there. I just don't know if you are a top-of-the-field engineer are you going to work for MSoft?

 

[AzaK]

Agreed, the Wii U will be squeezed between the old and new gen HD consoles. Mario will likely be its primary weapon.

But oh what a weapon it is.

 

[Mr.Squirrel]

Do people really think a 600 console is going to sell gang busters next gen? It's like the PS3 launch didn't even happen.

 

[Slayer-33]

I'd put a $20 on it happening again, if I was given good odds. Designing and engineering a games console is a difficult business, takes a lot of coordination and MSoft are fundamentally a software company.

The 360 is really the first attempt at something we would call a modern console, designed with the "reducing costs of production over time" model in mind, and they fucked up royally.

They need AAA grade engineers in there. I just don't know if you are a top-of-the-field engineer are you going to work for MSoft?

I'm sure ms learned their lesson.


rrdo won't happen again to the extent that it did.. It'll be a normal failure rate

 

[Angry Grimace]

Launch buyers are irrelevant because launches are supply-constrained. There are always 6 million people who will buy the next console from any manufacturer at any idiot price (the $599 PS3 is an eternal testament to that), but the problems come in afterwards. The number of units you can sell at $499+ after a launch/holiday is far too small to support a global console business on, and assuming you're not just overcharging on a $250 BOM device to soak the early adopters, you don't have the margin to price drop and actually price your product at something that real people will buy.



People in these discussions tend to be confused about the distinction between a laptop/tablet (a computer) and a gaming console (a toy).

I remember when people got really confused and believed the $499 and 599 PS3 was going to be worth triple that during the holidays, but then the demand didn't really exist and I won mine on eBay for well under sticker price.

 

[infinityBCRT]

Do people really think a 600 console is going to sell gang busters next gen? It's like the PS3 launch didn't even happen.

One thing to remember is that RRoD really really screwed up MS' pricing strategy in more ways than one. This is something they acknowledged that kept the 360's price up longer than they wanted to and they were planning on being more aggressive. Paying $1.1 Billion for the RRoD issues and then also not being able to fix public perception until the Xbox 360 S really hurt them. If the next Xbox launches at the same price, they are going to make damn sure its reliable (and really-- the reliability issue for the 360 stemmed from a last minute change they had to do to comply with the EU's ruling of banning lead based solder) and then cut the price aggressively.

 

[M3d10n]

I completely agree. But the question is how many people actually use their tablets for productivity as you mention? Hell, how many people even use their PC's for that? There is a significant population that look at both for mostly video, music, gaming, email, and the web (mostly social networking and stuff like youtube). That's actually been the main argument for why the computing market is trending towards tablets in the first place.

Now think about those use-cases for a minute. Do they sound familiar? That's where consoles are trending. So the question becomes just how much of Windows 8 will be in the neXt box ... and how many new features and services (including potential Google crossovers) will be in PS4? I think in actual use, they're all moving much closer to a significant population than many give credit for.

TVs are becoming increasingly more capable of handling media by themselves.

I think the point is, at $399/$599 the console competes for money against other devices which are far better at general purpose tasks, instead of complementing their purchases.

 

[G Rom]

The more I think about these rumours the more it almost makes sense in a way. If MS brings out a new xbox console next november the 360 will be on the eve of it's 7th year of availability. That's a huge amount of time for a console to be available without a successor. Plus, it's not as though the 360 is just going to disappear overnight. They don't have the supply issues they did with the original xbox , so I'd expect to see 360's built right up until 2015 or even 2016. The new console will probably last until 2018.

It just actually seems like the right year to launch. Nintendo WILL be out next year with the new wii, sony is bleeding too much money as it is and launching the vita. They won't be in the picture until 2013 for sure. And I think this time they'll make a point of exceeding the specs of the other guys instead of basically matching them.

Either way, Wii U out in september with a huge launch (say 5 million shipped from sept-dec worldwide) , lots of software and a price of no more than 249.99 USD. Microsoft will have a hard drive using 360 available for 199.99 USD to compete and a 149.99 model with no HDD. In November I see them releasing this new xbox with only 1 limited edition model for 399.99 , 300,000 units day 1 and 100,000 more every week until the end of the year. Launch will be late november , perhaps just prior to black friday ? European launch will happen in february and japan won't see the system until the summer of 2013. Sure , chances are they won't sell super well but , much like the 360, it gets the system and some software out there and allows them to ramp up production faster to cut costs sooner so by the time the winter games season of 2013 rolls around and the PS4 launches , the wii U will have 200+ games (mostly ps3/360 ports) and the new xbox could have 100 games that will all look better than any ps4 launch title.

It's kind of a scenario I see only because MS already did it once so why would they delay a new xbox into 2013 and thus leave 8 years for the 360 and probably then 5 years or 6 years at best for the new console. It'll be harder to convince people to upgrade to a new system when a new playstation comes out within 30 days of the new xbox, not to mention giving the wii U free range on hardware superiority for a full year. It wont' be leagues better than a 360 or ps3 but I think it'll be a noticeable improvement and for those starved for a new home console, even with similar games many will jump. Especially those that bought a wii and enjoyed it. Some of these people already bought kinect or move but not THAT much.

There's no way they'll launch way later in Europe, in Japan maybe (it's a lost cause anyway) but Europe is too damn important. They may have the UK cornered but they still have to win mainland EU. Beside, the 360 launched globally in like two or three weeks, I don't see why it wouldn't be the case for the next Xbox. I mean, Apple can launch new products in many countries on the same day, I see no reason for MS not to do the same. They could boast about big sales in PR like never before as well.

I don't get those Windows 8 rumors, surelly MS wouldn't make the mistake to slap the Windows brand on the Xbox/Kinect when the Xbox team managed to build brands which have a much better reputation than Windows. Hopefully it's just a case of shared kernel like iOS/MacOS. Although, Ballmer is so dumb that it wouldn't surprise me if he managed to destroy the work done by Fries, Allard, Moore, Bach and co in a matter of months with decisions like that...

I also don't get people saying that the 360/PS3 can be around for two or three more years. They're already on life support now, by 2013/2014, I don't want to see what they'll look like... :-/
I want to play Halo 4, Forza/GT, new ND IP, hopefully new Epic IP, etc... on Loop/PS4.

 

[dgrdsv]

This is what you think, not what you know, right? I think people will be waiting for PS4/nextbox and Wii U going the way of the Dreamcast.

Even if people with 360/PS3 will be waiting for Xbox3/PS4 there will be much less buying of new 360/PS3 with Wii U on the market. That is exactly what "loosing current sales momentum" means. But it'll ultimately depend on Wii U prices.