Support NeoGAF

[Inuhanyou]

So an hypothetical PS5 in a couple of years is going to be in the GTX 1080 range? 1080 Ti?

Count on 8 to 10 tflops GPU wise from AMD(my guess is around 10.X) . Remember this thing will have to fit into a semicustom APU for 399 atleast and will also house Zen architecture and likely HBM 16GB...that should be enough at 10 or 7nm.

The GPU jump will be good compared to PS4, but its the CPU and bandwidth upgrades which are the real stars.

You can also expect sub 4K games on PS5 as well along with 30fps, devs will want that power as much as they can to push.

 

[Piggus]

we need more FLOPS in this thread!!! come on guys

Count on 8 to 10 tflops GPU wise from AMD. Remember this thing will have to fit into a semicustom APU for 399 atleast and will also house Zen architecture and likely HBM 16GB...that should be enough at 10 or 7nm.

The GPU jump will be good compared to PS4, but its the CPU and bandwidth upgrades which are the real stars.

You can also expect sub 4K games on PS5 as well along with 30fps, devs will want that power as much as they can

8 to 10 TF and 16 GBs of RAM would be an embarrassment. Double that and you have a much more reasonable estimate for a 2020/2021 system.

 

[Belakor]

At this point if I want a strong machine,I'll get a PC not Scorpio. If Scorpio was supported by a strong lineup of exclusives,it would be a really bigger success.

They have sucked the life of every console seller they had,like Halo and Gears of War.

MS unfortunately can't compete with Sony on exclusives and this makes me only need a PC and a PS4 for a complete gaming experience

 

[Beerman462]

In a closed environment without a DX11 layer it absolutely is both fair and possible to compare AMD flops to NVIDIA flops. On a PC, where Nvidia has way better Dx11 drivers, it is not easy to compare because AMD drivers are not as optimized as Nvidias.

It's like going back in time and reading a post from the mid 2000s.

 

[LelouchZero]

So an hypothetical PS5 in a couple of years is going to be in the GTX 1080 range? 1080 Ti?

If the PS5 launches in 2019 Titan X Pascal at the minimum, which is roughly 3-4x the PS4 Pro.
It will hopefully be more powerful than the Titan X Pascal though.

 

[Mandoric]

I thought ps3 wasn't utilized because of the weird architecture

Devs learn architectures FAST when it pays. PS2 was also quite goofy, and when pushed to its limits was still the weakest in its gen rather than the strongest, but a lot of effort went into making it compete because there were 150m buyers out there rather than 20.

The reason exotic hardware has faded from consoles has more to do with economies of scale than developer uptake, and within developer uptake more to do with "this is what we can make launch look good with" than "this is what we can work with at all".

 

[hogendaz85]

Ultimately depends on their final price point.

$400 for 1060
$600 for 1070

It'll probably be the mobile cards for those ones.

Again...there are no mobile variants for the GTX 10 series. So really who knows I'm gonna say I doubt a 1070 equivalent because the cost will be too high. Dear god MS please prove me wrong.

 

[Inuhanyou]

8 to 10 TF and 16 GBs of RAM would be an embarrassment. Double that and you have a much more reasonable estimate for a 2020/2021 system.

Your not going to stuff 16 to 20 tflops into a console at this point in time, or 32 GB of RAM. Its impossible especially at the same time like your suggesting. And the same will be true in 3 years because we have not even hit that point in PC land yet and won't for a while.

You'll be lucky to see 16 to 20 tflops in 3 years in the high end single desktop range, not in a low to mid range console architecture.

PS4 came out about half the power of the highest end single chip GPU wise, we can expect around the same for PS5.

My guess for release is winter 2019 or 2020.

 

[Spladam]

Trusted reviews is not that bad, but they are not a source for the technical specifications for unreleased consoles. No more guessing floating point numbers for Scorpio, it means nothing until we see the entire system specifications.

Please make these threads stop. Bad OP! Bad! You've been a BAD OP with a very bad thread. BAD Thread!

 

[PHOENIXZERO]

Yeah, that's not how it works...

 

[PLASTICA-MAN]

Ultimately depends on their final price point.

$400 for 1060
$600 for 1070

It'll probably be the mobile cards for those ones.

I thought mobile cards became equal to desktop cards starting from Pascal GPUs.

Again...there are no mobile variants for the GTX 10 series. So really who knows I'm gonna say I doubt a 1070 equivalent because the cost will be too high. Dear god MS please prove me wrong.

This.

 

[Piggus]

Your not going to stuff 16 to 20 tflops into a console at this point in time, or 32 GB of RAM. Its impossible especially at the same time like your suggesting. And the same will be true in 3 years because we have not even hit that point in PC land yet and won't for a while.

You'll be lucky to see 16 to 20 tflops in 3 years in the high end single desktop range, not in a low to mid range console architecture.

PS4 came out about half the power of the highest end single chip GPU wise, we can expect around the same for PS5.

My guess for release is winter 2019 or 2020.

I think you're really underestimating what GPUs will look like in 2020. The Titan XP is already close to a hypothetical 16 TF AMD equivalent. If the PS5 released next year, 10 TF would be more believable and probably about half the speed of whatever Nvidia brings out next year (1180?) Nvidia essentially doubled performance between the 9 and 10 series cards.

 

[M_A_C]

Lmao hear it first Scorpio 4.3TF

yeah because around a 25% upclock would be so wild it could never happen. /s

 

[Inuhanyou]

I think you're really underestimating what GPUs will look like in 2020. The Titan XP is already close to a hypothetical 16 TF AMD equivalent. If the PS5 released next year, 10 TF would be more believable and probably about half the speed of whatever Nvidia brings out next year (1180?) Nvidia essentially doubled performance between the 9 and 10 series cards.

Fury X which is the strongest GPU AMD has right now on the consumer market is 8 tflops. I think Titan X is more like in between to 10 to 12 tflops of an AMD equivalent.

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

It's bound to be pretty close to that when you factor in probable Vega improvements, 12GB RAM and then developing for fixed spec hardware.

An AMD comparison would be better, but they don't have much out right now to compare to. A 480 has a similar TF number but has a much higher clock speed than what the Scorpio will have. The new Xbox GPU will have a lot more CU's than that part, and probably a different architecture, so the comparison is useless.

 

[napata]

No man..

www.techspot.com/amp/guides/304-top-mainstream-and-highend-graphics-cards/



If I told you a year ago that AMD would be causing chaos at Intel headquarters, what would you have told me?

You just linked a bunch of GPUs, including a 480. A 480 is better than a 7850 so you just proved my point.

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_7850_HD_7870/26.html

Edit: Apparently even the 580 was released in 2010. Wow they went fast back then.

 

[Space_nut]

yeah because around a 25% upclock would be so wild it could never happen. /s

I can't believe you're serious. Taking the PS4 gpu and upclocking it to 6TF is possible if Mei uses her freeze gun to keep the gpu cooled but whatever

 

[FearlessBelgian]

This is not possible...

Scorpio price attended : 399-499$

Price for a GTX 1070 : 400-450$ ...

And its 6TFlops from AMD , Nvidia TFlops are more powerful than AMD TFlops.

 

[Wedzi]

Ya'll need to visit the Scorpio thread

 

[PeskyToaster]

people talkin about flops as if they mean anything by themselves.

 

[ZOONAMI]

8 to 10 TF and 16 GBs of RAM would be an embarrassment. Double that and you have a much more reasonable estimate for a 2020/2021 system.

Lol yeah right.

 

[gamz]

This is not possible...

Scorpio price attended : 399-499$

Price for a GTX 1070 : 400-450$ ...

And its 6TFlops from AMD , Nvidia TFlops are more powerful than AMD TFlops.

We don't know the price attended and companies that buy in bulk aren't paying what we consumers pay. They pay much less...

 

[KillLaCam]

The real question is what will the cpu be? Doesnt really matter what type of gpu they have if the cpu is still a potato.

 

[Inuhanyou]

The real question is what will the cpu be? Doesnt really matter what type of gpu they have if the cpu is still a potato.

My guess is Jaguar or Puma. Some people think it will be Zen but i feel that's severely unlikely

 

[Alpha Phoenix]

Trusted reviews is not that bad, but they are not a source for the technical specifications for unreleased consoles. No more guessing floating point numbers for Scorpio, it means nothing until we see the entire system specifications.

Please make these threads stop. Bad OP! Bad! You've been a BAD OP with a very bad thread. BAD Thread!

 

[Jaguar Victory]

You just linked a bunch of GPUs, including a 480. A 480 is better than a 7850 so you just proved my point.

https://www.techpowerup.com/reviews/AMD/HD_7850_HD_7870/26.html

Edit: Apparently even the 580 was released in 2010. Wow they went fast back then.

But the 1070 is a tad bit faster than the 980ti right? I don't see how that's improbable.

 

[mario_O]

The GTX 1070 is 500 euros here. I doubt Msoft console will put the same level of power, unless they're planning on charging 800 euros for the console.

 

[mario_O]

But the 1070 is a tad bit faster than the 980ti right? I don't see how that's improbable.

They're pretty much the same. Most games barely make a difference.

 

[Jaguar Victory]

The GTX 1070 is 500 euros here. I doubt Msoft console will put the same level of power, unless they're planning on charging 800 euros for the console.

Hint: they're not using NVIDIA. They will put it on an APU. AMD and NVIDIA are releasing new GPUs soon that will push prices further down. They're not buying a 6 TF GPU off the shelf.

BTW the 1070 lists for $389.99 on newegg right now.

 

[mario_O]

Hint: they're not using NVIDIA. They will put it on an APU. AMD and NVIDIA are releasing new GPUs soon that will push prices further down. They're not buying a 6 TF GPU off the shelf.

Not getting a 1070 level card in a few months for any reasonable price, not gonna happen.

 

[napata]

But the 1070 is a tad bit faster than the 980ti right? I don't see how that's improbable.

Yeah but what does that have to do with the PS5?

 

[Jaguar Victory]

Yeah but what does that have to do with the PS5?

I don't know. I didn't bring up the PS5.

 

[ALLseeingEYE]

This is not possible...

Scorpio price attended : 399-499$

Price for a GTX 1070 : 400-450$ ...

And its 6TFlops from AMD , Nvidia TFlops are more powerful than AMD TFlops.

Except, AMD cards so far are significantly better at Async compute, which Scorpio will no doubt use, and in turn, better with DX12 software, which Scorpio is also based on.

Also, a GTX 1070 at $400-500 is likely making a healthy profit. AMD GPU tech released a year after Pascal could very well be more cost efficient, and, given their market position, MS may very well be willing to forgo any sort of profit on the system.

If MS is truly targeting 4k 30-40fps, along with much improved textures and image quality, a GTX 1070, along with 12GB of GDDR5 is definitely the spec they want to aim for. Nevermind that if MS really wants to blow the PS4 Pro tech out of the water, that is the way to do it. I hope they get there, and without going over $400-450 US.

 

[Piggus]

Fury X which is the strongest GPU AMD has right now on the consumer market is 8 tflops. I think Titan X is more like in between to 10 to 12 tflops of an AMD equivalent.

Nope. The Fury X is slower than a 980Ti, which is 5.6 (Nvidia) TF. The Titan X Pascal is about twice as fast as the Fury X.

Lol yeah right.

Yeah right? You do realize the PS4 had 16x as much Ram and 9x the GPU power of the PS3, right? And the PS4 was considered a fairly conservative upgrade.

The PS5 is probably at least three years out. It's not difficult to look at today's hardware trends and get a reasonable estimate for where things will be two or three years from now.

 

[General Lee]

Direct TFLOP comparisons between architectures aren't very accurate, but for consoles it's probably a lot easier to take advantage of GCN specific optimizations and make better use of the hardware available than on PC. So in a sense console TFLOP > PC TFLOP, so Scorpio very well might end up running some well GCN optimized titles as well as a 1070 in a decent rig. Has there been any nice comparisons between PS4 Pro and PC in multiplat performance to see what sort of a rig you'll need to match the console as closely as possible?

 

[Beerman462]

Direct TFLOP comparisons between architectures aren't very accurate, but for consoles it's probably a lot easier to take advantage of GCN specific optimizations and make better use of the hardware available than on PC. So in a sense console TFLOP > PC TFLOP, so Scorpio very well might end up running some well GCN optimized titles as well as a 1070 in a decent rig. Has there been any nice comparisons between PS4 Pro and PC in multiplat performance to see what sort of a rig you'll need to match the console as closely as possible?

This simply isn't true. The 750Ti TFLOP count was much lower than the PS4s and could match it in many games and beat it some. I also did some experiments a few years back to test this and GPUs in a console environment have no advantage when it comes to multi plats at the very least. Definitly not enough to close the gap between an overclocked 480 and a 1070.

 

[dgrdsv]

In a closed environment without a DX11 layer it absolutely is both fair and possible to compare AMD flops to NVIDIA flops. On a PC, where Nvidia has way better Dx11 drivers, it is not easy to compare because AMD drivers are not as optimized as Nvidias.

A. DX11 layer is only one of four available options on PC. Since it's mostly CPU intensive it's entirely possible to reach peak flops on AMD h/w in DX11 when the game is programmed around the CPU limitations of their drivers. Many games of recent several years show this so even DX11 is completely irrelevant to this discussion.

B. AMD "flops" are still of less, let's say, oomph than NV's no matter which layer you use. There are many reasons for this all of which you can group in comparative deficiencies of AMD's GPU architecture(s) in all three main areas of the pipeline - frontend, shader core and backend. They are slowly improving on all of them (not only in h/w but thanks to stuff like async compute as well) but they are still pretty far off in terms of shader core peak utilization from where NV h/w is. So comparing flops is still misleading and off, especially when you compare them between a console h/w and a PC GPU.

 

[General Lee]

This simply isn't true. The 750Ti TFLOP count was much lower than the PS4s and could match it in many games and beat it some. I also did some experiments a few years back to test this and GPUs in a console environment have no advantage when it comes to multi plats at the very least. Definitly not enough to close the gap between an overclocked 480 and a 1070.

So you're saying game devs won't optimize console games for the hardware better than they do PC ports? What you fail to comprehend is there's plenty of other factors that influence that 750 Ti performance you quote, and back near the launch of PS4 the games certainly weren't utilizing the hardware to its fullest potential.

The architecture that's in Scorpio will no doubt manage some things more efficiently, and any smart dev will utilize it to its maximum potential. Often the best optimized titles are excllusive though, so you'll never get a real comparison of how it would be done on PC instead.

 

[etta]

No because Scorpio is actually 3TF single precision so more like a crappy ass GTX 550.
Pro 💩 on ♏️.

 

[spannicus]

Highly doubtful. Probably just like the PS4 Pro but upclocked a bit.

Why would it be like pro but upclocked when Microsoft already said they were doing something different than pro, hence the year wait?

 

[Brofist]

This is not possible...

Scorpio price attended : 399-499$

Price for a GTX 1070 : 400-450$ ...

And its 6TFlops from AMD , Nvidia TFlops are more powerful than AMD TFlops.

MS gonna buy their parts from Newegg confirmed.

 

[diaspora]

Isnt the ps4 pro already 480? That wouldnt make sense to wait and be the same power.

It's polaris but the PS4 Pro's GPU is nowhere near as fast as a dedicated 480.

 

[ethomaz]

Yeah... no.

More like 6TF AMD... something like a overclocked RX 480.

 

[Dirk Benedict]

8 to 10 TF and 16 GBs of RAM would be an embarrassment. Double that and you have a much more reasonable estimate for a 2020/2021 system.

Consider the form factor the big 2 will want and consider these should be SoC. Not a chance in hell. When we theorize with this kind of topic, we need to look at price point when throwing a ballpark.

8-12 max. 12 is pushing it, so I will assume 10. Anything above that is a pleasant surprise.
My oven is always ready for crow, if I am wrong.

 

[SenjutsuSage]

Yeah... no.

More like 6TF AMD... something like a overclocked RX 480.

Scorpio's GPU smokes PC RX 480.

 

[LelouchZero]

So you're saying game devs won't optimize console games for the hardware better than they do PC ports? What you fail to comprehend is there's plenty of other factors that influence that 750 Ti performance you quote, and back near the launch of PS4 the games certainly weren't utilizing the hardware to its fullest potential.

The architecture that's in Scorpio will no doubt manage some things more efficiently, and any smart dev will utilize it to its maximum potential. Often the best optimized titles are excllusive though, so you'll never get a real comparison of how it would be done on PC instead.

Digital Foundry have covered this a lot in the past including in their 'We built a PC with PlayStation Neo's GPU tech' article in which they attempted to simulate the PS4's GPU performance with a R7 265 at 900MHz and came away with very interesting results. GPU performance of the 'R7 265-powered PS4 surrogate' wasn't too far off from the console itself.

Exclusives are where these machines truly shine, as more time and resources can be dedicated to optimizing the performance of the engine for the target platform, taking advantage of things such as Async compute can also see substantial gains as-well as specifically gearing the code for the target platform.

 

[rokkerkory]

It'll be powerful enough at 6TF.

I think it'll come in a tad over 6TF.

 

[Renekton]

This simply isn't true. The 750Ti TFLOP count was much lower than the PS4s and could match it in many games and beat it some. I also did some experiments a few years back to test this and GPUs in a console environment have no advantage when it comes to multi plats at the very least. Definitly not enough to close the gap between an overclocked 480 and a 1070.

That is because the 750ti rig has a way stronger Intel CPU.

 

[KingGreasy]

Nope. The Fury X is slower than a 980Ti, which is 5.6 (Nvidia) TF. The Titan X Pascal is about twice as fast as the Fury X.



Yeah right? You do realize the PS4 had 16x as much Ram and 9x the GPU power of the PS3, right? And the PS4 was considered a fairly conservative upgrade.

The PS5 is probably at least three years out. It's not difficult to look at today's hardware trends and get a reasonable estimate for where things will be two or three years from now.

If we look back to 2010 there was the ATI Radeon HD 5830 at 1.8 TFLOPS. This was a 175W TDP GPU that was priced at ~$230. 3, almost 4, years later the PS4. The closest price bracket GPU today is the RX 480 at 5.8 TFLOPS 150W TDP at ~$240. The generation before in 2008 there was the 4850x2 at 2 TFLOPS with a 250W TDP. 5 years until getting that FLOPS performance in a console. Today's top GPU is the Titan X Pascal at 10 TFLOPS and Vega is rumored to be perform at around 12TFLOPS. The Titan X is a 250W TDP card and the top Vega card will certainly be a 250W TDP card. 16-20 TFLOPS is unreasonable considering how slow process technology progresses now.

 

[ZOONAMI]

Nope. The Fury X is slower than a 980Ti, which is 5.6 (Nvidia) TF. The Titan X Pascal is about twice as fast as the Fury X.



Yeah right? You do realize the PS4 had 16x as much Ram and 9x the GPU power of the PS3, right? And the PS4 was considered a fairly conservative upgrade.

The PS5 is probably at least three years out. It's not difficult to look at today's hardware trends and get a reasonable estimate for where things will be two or three years from now.

High end GPU pricing has gotten astronomically more expensive since 2006. Also, 512gb ram was pretty acceptable in 2006, 8GB was generous in 2013, but going by the current trendline, we are not looking at needing more than 32GB of ram in 2-3 years. And even 32GB I could only see if it was a 16GB VRAM and 16GB System Ram set up.

The current trend of GPUs I guess we might see 20 Tflop high end gpus within 2-3 years, but that isn't what's going into the PS5. I also wouldn't be surprised if PS5 showed up in the fall of 2019.

I think we will see 16-32GB total ram (and I would be pretty surprised if 32GB happens), and a 10-15 tflop GPU.