This is probably what Sony would like also, lol.
I predict Detroit: Become Human in September 2017, God of War in March 2018, Days Gone in May 2018, Spiderman in September 2018, The Last of Us Part II in March 2019, and Death Stranding in September 2019.
You are missing the next From Software PS4 exclusive...probably an early 2018 game similar to Bloodborne's schedule from announcement to release.
Has it been confirmed that there will be one? If so, sweet!
To be fair, I'm only including announced games at this point.
Don't forget Sucker Punch new IP in february 2019
Well you didn't predict dates for Dreams, GT Sport or Knack 2. No it hasn't been announced and I was joking that it should be in there. I'm almost certain it is a thing and will be revealed this year though.
Yeah, fair enough. I didn't include Knack 2 or Dreams because I don't see them as big tent pole releases. Subjective, I know. I guess GT Sport should be there.
I think Dreams could be as much of a tentpole release as Little Big Planet was.
Apologies, "delayed" is being used liberally here.
Anyway, I'll reiterate what I said about Uncharted 4. The game was good for release for May 2016, yes, which is why it was released then. If we follow the "series tradition" logic, ND would have held onto the game until Fall 2016. My point is, why hold onto the game when it's done?
Again, GoW was fully playable since December 2016. If we use another example, FFXV was in a similar state back in December 2015 and came out in November 2016. However, that is an open world game being released for two platforms. In addition, the Luminous engine is notorious for causing issues. Also, the leak which spoiled the ending months in advance mentioned that the fully playable builds were only on high end PC's. Okay, so I made that comparison as a guesstimate of how long it takes for a game to be released after it's fully playable.
If we presume a similar time frame, GoW is good for a November release too. However, it's suffering none of the issues FFXV did, so September to October is indeed possible. Yes, I know different devs have different workloads and schedules, but it's a good indication of how long development takes IMO. So, if the game is done then and the Fall hitters have yet to hit, wouldn't that be an ideal time to release it? Unless you think the game needs more time in the oven, which is a valid reason and much better than "series tradition!". So why don't people use that point instead?
This much is true. Apologies, you're absolutely right, we can't make direct comparisons, and there's no way to tell when a game will release until it's out. Just to be clear, I'm not telling people that I'm right, you're wrong, I would just like to see more thoughts put into an argument than just "series tradition". And to be honest, I didn't refute because you were right at that point.You can reiterate it but I still think it's a ridiculous comparison for the reasons I gave (and you didn't refute). No-one's saying Sony have a hard rule that certain series HAVE to hit in a specific time period, they're pointing out that if there is a target, it's more likely to be the one month God of War's have always come out than any other random month.
And no offence but the rest of your post is complete nonsense. Forget open world vs linear or their engines, one developer's "playable from beginning to end" is completely different another developer's "playable from beginning to end." You're treating vague statements on games that are still in development as if they're giving you a completion percentage when in reality, one might only technically be playable, letting you run through a bunch of completely barren levels, while the other might be completely done and only need more polish. It is impossible to figure out when a game is coming out based on that information, let alone the f'n month it's coming out. Game development doesn't work like that.
Some folks defo need to lower their expectations! Christ on a bike this thread has been hugely entertaining...
5 years for SP seems like too large of a dev time.
They took amost 4 years between Sly 3 and Infamous 1 (their last new IP) and games (especially new IPs) take even longer to develop now so it's not unlikely at all. Bend will end up taking 6 years between games and they've done less (in terms of financial successes) to earn taking their time than Sucker Punch has.Sucker Punch is not going to go 5 years between releases unless it is for strategic reasons.
I think either Days Gone or Detroit come out at the end of this year.
I think Days Gone will drop this fall.
I don't think so. I think it will follow a similar pattern to Horizon Zero Dawn and release early 2017. The response to it at E3 was lukewarm and it has gone dead silent since then.
So has every other game Sony showed at E3 outside of Horizon.
This much is true. Apologies, you're absolutely right, we can't make direct comparisons, and there's no way to tell when a game will release until it's out. Just to be clear, I'm not telling people that I'm right, you're wrong, I would just like to see more thoughts put into an argument than just "series tradition". And to be honest, I didn't refute because you were right at that point.
In the end, though, we are all looking at vague data and trying to extrapolate from that to come to varying conclusions. Another reason I think the predictions thread was unnecessary. Unlike sales, there's no historical data or other figures we can use to guide our predictions. So, it's more shooting in the dark, if you will.
So has every other game Sony showed at E3 outside of Horizon.
Detroit isn't dead silent.
They've shown something besides the picture on twitter saying they wrapped mocap?
Has it been confirmed that there will be one? If so, sweet!
I only included announced games in my release predictions.
I think Days Gone will drop this fall.
To be fair, Bend is a pretty small studio and they had only been working on handheld games prior to now. They needed to get themselves established for making console games.They took amost 4 years between Sly 3 and Infamous 1 (their last new IP) and games (especially new IPs) take even longer to develop now so it's not unlikely at all. Bend will end up taking 6 years between games and they've done less (in terms of financial successes) to earn taking their time than Sucker Punch has.
I know Bend's circumstances (though their size is kind of irrelevant since they have roughly the same amount of staff as SP), I'm just using them as an example that Sony is sometimes willing to allow their studios to take a long time between projects. And after consistently delivering successful games Sucker Punch will be allowed to take ~5 years for their new IP.To be fair, Bend is a pretty small studio and they had only been working on handheld games prior to now. They needed to get themselves established for making console games.
I think Days Gone will drop this fall.
5 years for SP seems like too large of a dev time.
5 years for SP seems like too large of a dev time.
They took amost 4 years between Sly 3 and Infamous 1 (their last new IP) and games (especially new IPs) take even longer to develop now so it's not unlikely at all. Bend will end up taking 6 years between games and they've done less (in terms of financial successes) to earn taking their time than Sucker Punch has.
What the hell do you think they've been doing? They released a ton of games last year, have already released Gravity Rush 2 this year and have Horizon, MLB The Show 17 and Drawn to Death coming in the next couple months.
Outside of MLB which is an annual franchise, every game has been an average of at least two years since announcement and release. Too long of a waiting period in my opinion. I hate games being announced and shown when they're literally years away.
Announcement to release window needs to be shorter, a lot shorter in my opinion. Mainly because I hate seeing games that I want to play but know that im going to do so for at least two years.
For me personally, after Horizon, there's not a single game that im interested in from Sony's first party studios that has a release date for 2017.
Sorry but I love the Fallout 4 and Watch Dogs 2 reveals and releases. Six months. Here's a trailer, a gameplay walkthrough video and boom, it's in your console in six months. Instead of talking about it, im actually playing it.
Just my own opinion as I simply hate the long wait times between announcement and release.
Damn that lineup is sexy plus third party titles and third party exclusives I need more time.Sony seemed to make an attempt at 12-18 month release periods late last gen and early this gen but a lot of them were screwed up by delays and it seemed like they abandoned the idea. But honestly, I prefer it this way. First because I've always found the secrecy surrounding videogames to be dumb, something you see in insular industries like comics, not mainstream ones like movies. You don't see Marvel Studios trying to hide their upcoming lineup, for instance. Second because so long as the games actually come out and the footage we're shown is gameplay (not dumb, misleading CG trailers that go nowhere like Microsoft's infamous E3 2014 conference), I actually like having all these big exciting games constantly on the horizon. It gets me excited about the PS4 and it's something I wish Nintendo had done with the Switch announcement because right now, while I like its concept, its upcoming lineup doesn't fill me with confidence.
So you aren't interested in MLB The Show, Everybody's Golf, GT Sport, Drawn to Death, Uncharted: The Lost Legacy, Knack 2, Wipeout Omega Collection or the Parappa, LocoRoco and Patapon remasters? Seems like that's more your problem than Sony's. Complain about their release schedules all you like (though I find it silly) but you can't deny they release a lot of games and their big games DO come out.
That's what separates Sony's output from the other first party's IMO. That's a lot of games you listed, and someone might not care about any of it (hell I only care about Uncharted out of it) but still have 6-7 if not more games that they do care about. I'm never interested in everything Sony has to offer, but they always have a lot that does appeal to me. It's not "you're into all of it or none of it" that's often the case with Xbox and especially NintendoSo you aren't interested in MLB The Show, Everybody's Golf, GT Sport, Drawn to Death, Uncharted: The Lost Legacy, Knack 2, Wipeout Omega Collection or the Parappa, LocoRoco and Patapon remasters? Seems like that's more your problem than Sony's.
Too early to be thinking like that. We're still 4 months out.Is it E3 yet ;(
Outside of MLB which is an annual franchise, every game has been an average of at least two years since announcement and release. Too long of a waiting period in my opinion. I hate games being announced and shown when they're literally years away.
Announcement to release window needs to be shorter, a lot shorter in my opinion. Mainly because I hate seeing games that I want to play but know that im going to do so for at least two years.
For me personally, after Horizon, there's not a single game that im interested in from Sony's first party studios that has a release date for 2017.
Sorry but I love the Fallout 4 and Watch Dogs 2 reveals and releases. Six months. Here's a trailer, a gameplay walkthrough video and boom, it's in your console in six months. Instead of talking about it, im actually playing it.
Just my own opinion as I simply hate the long wait times between announcement and release.
4 months is right around the corner lol.Too early to be thinking like that. We're still 4 months out.
LiquidSolid said:Sony seemed to make an attempt at 12-18 month release periods late last gen and early this gen but a lot of them were screwed up by delays and it seemed like they abandoned the idea. But honestly, I prefer it this way. First because I've always found the secrecy surrounding videogames to be dumb, something you see in insular industries like comics, not mainstream ones like movies. You don't see Marvel Studios trying to hide their upcoming lineup, for instance. Second because so long as the games actually come out and the footage we're shown is gameplay (not dumb, misleading CG trailers that go nowhere like Microsoft's infamous E3 2014 conference), I actually like having all these big exciting games constantly on the horizon. It gets me excited about the PS4 and it's something I wish Nintendo had done with the Switch announcement because right now, while I like its concept, its upcoming lineup doesn't fill me with confidence.
LiquidSolid said:So you aren't interested in MLB The Show, Everybody's Golf, GT Sport, Drawn to Death, Uncharted: The Lost Legacy, Knack 2, Wipeout Omega Collection or the Parappa, LocoRoco and Patapon remasters? Seems like that's more your problem than Sony's. Complain about their release schedules all you like (though I find it silly) but you can't deny they release a lot of games and their big games DO come out.
Your first few sentences sums it up perfectly for me as to why I don't like games being announced way too early. Drive Club - delayed a year. Infamous - delayed about six months. The Order - delayed six months. Uncharted 4 - delayed six months. Horizon - delayed six months.
Add in perfect examples of The Last Guardian and even SE's FFXV. Perfect examples (among many others im sure but these are the big two) as to why no publisher should show games early. Wait until the game is at least 70% completed and then announce it.
I don't care if games are kept in secret. If anything, it's better because the longer a game is shown before release, the greater the chance the interest, sales, etc. decrease in it. Outside of the GTA's, RDR's, Fallouts and Skyrims of the world, the longer a game takes to come out, the better the chances of the that happening.
Agree in regards to the CG/gameplay trailers. I obviously prefer long gameplay video trailers. Only time I don't mind a CG trailer if it's like the announcement trailer and is followed by a long gameplay video.
As for excitement for PS4, it's my primary number one console this generation. I know that at least half the games will most likely appeal to me. The games that do and are at the very least, within a year, is great but if it's three years away, that turns me off because look how long I have to wait to play the game.
As for Microsoft, the Xbox One is my secondary console. Last generation, it was the opposite with Xbox 360 being my primary number one console and PS3 being secondary and only used for Dead Nation and the four Naughty Dog games. As of right now, the only future game that I have any interest in for Xbox One is State of Decay 2. I'm currently at three games completed with two in my backlog for Xbox One exclusive wise. State of Decay 2 would be six and surpass what PS3 was for me so in this regard, it's already a success and positive for me. If Microsoft announces a few exclusives that im interested in at E3, great but if they're a few years away, I would much rather wait until they are within a year of release before being shown.
As for Nintendo, if pre-orders open up again at Best Buy, I may buy a Switch but even then, probably not as I already had two chances and passed on both. Switch is a great idea and concept despite me not having any interest in handheld gaming but my main reason isn't the lack of exclusives for Switch (in fact, there's three im interested in - Zelda, Mario and Project Octopath Traveler) but more so the high amount of games that I have in general for the first quarter of 2017 which is currently at five. Could be as high as seven if I include April. Simply no time for Zelda and to purchase a console and the pro controller and spend at least $450 for a game im not even going to play is as of right now, a waste of money as I won't have the time to play it.
The number one reason is that my number one exclusive game is Days Gone. I would easily swap out Horizon for it. Not to say im not interested in Horizon because I am, very much so and already have it pre-ordered but Days Gone appeals to me a lot more. I see it as a first half 2018 release which means that it like Horizon and many others that the wait from announcement to release is almost two years. That's just unacceptable to me.
Let the games be developed and at least 70% finished before announcing and showing them simply because the earlier the game is shown, the longer the wait will be and this doesn't even include delays.
My problem isn't with their release schedule. My problem is with Sony consistently showing games way too soon, them being delayed which is pretty much a given with every first official release date and taking two years or longer to be released. There's a reason why only around 30% of their exclusives shown in 2014, 2015 and 2016 have been released thus far - because they're shown way too early in the development process and I truly don't see any benefit to that whatsoever.
As for those games you listed, only Uncharted is a guaranteed purchase but it doesn't have a release date. If it's not out by September, I can easily see Sony holding/delaying it until early 2018. And this is just a stand alone expansion. Imagine if it was a full game. Oh wait, sorry. We don't have to imagine as we've already seen it happen time and time again. Knack 2 is 50/50 at best with the rest at zero percent interest.
Honestly, im 100% with Colin Moriarty. Go away and finish the damn games and show them when they're ready to be shown and shortly thereafter released. Not two, three and four years later.
But to each their own.
God of War releasing this fall could be a nice surprise, BUT given how almost all the previous GOW games released in March, this one seems just perfect for a March 2018 release.
I'm guessing we might end up getting another slim Fall of 1st party games. Probably GT Sport and Knack 2 will be enough for Sony.
Has it been confirmed that there will be one? If so, sweet!
I only included announced games in my release predictions.
I don't care if games are kept in secret. If anything, it's better because the longer a game is shown before release, the greater the chance the interest, sales, etc. decrease in it. Outside of the GTA's, RDR's, Fallouts and Skyrims of the world, the longer a game takes to come out, the better the chances of the that happening.