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[gofreak]

http://www.next-gen.biz/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=164&Itemid=2

Nikkei BP says companies providing Sony with components for the portable had been told early in 2005 to expect orders for about 18 million units. However, during a meeting with its suppliers, Sony revealed its plan to manufacture 12 million machines. Nintendo is expected to manufacture over 20 million DS units over the next year.

Old?

I guess it could be manufacturing probs or hesitant expectations re. demand..?

 

[akascream]

ONE HANDHELD FUTURE

 

[GDGF]

Not old, and very, very interesting

The war is over, and Pokemon isn't even out yet.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

i have no words

 

[jarrod]

Wait, Nintendo's manufacturing over 20M now? Wasn't it just 12M a month ago?

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

All I ever wanted was an alternative to Nintendo for handhelds. 12 million is still a lot.

 

[Elios83]

Uh?I don't get what they are referring to.
Sony said they want to ship 12 million PSPs in the period April 2005- March 2006,which is already considered a really optimistic forecast.
Where does these 18 millions come from?

 

[M3wThr33]

Wait, Nintendo's manufacturing over 20M now? Wasn't it just 12M a month ago?

Oh how the turns have tabled.

 

[mj1108]

Who wants popcorn? Extra butter, anyone?

 

[Smiles and Cries]

Wait, Nintendo's manufacturing over 20M now? Wasn't it just 12M a month ago?

Pokemon DS may need it, since Easy Dic is doing so well...

 

[jarrod]

Uh?I don't get what they are referring to.
Sony said they want to ship 12 million PSPs in the period April 2005- March 2006,which is already considered a really optimistic forecast.
Where does these 18 millions come from?

Earlier this year they told component suppliers (Sharp, Samsung, etc) to expect orders for 18 million PSPs over the year. Recently they revised that down to 12 million.

This is seperate from their fiscal report (which I'm guessing included the revised figures).

 

[Deku]

12 million is still a lot of PSPs.

But 20 million is a shitload more DS.

 

[gofreak]

Uh?I don't get what they are referring to.
Sony said they want to ship 12 million PSPs in the period April 2005- March 2006,which is already considered a really optimistic forecast.
Where does these 18 millions come from?

I'm not au fait with the PSP story to date. I just saw this posted elsewhere and thought it noteworthy if true, but I'd never visited this site before. Anyone with the Nikkei BP care to confirm and/or provide any other detail?

 

[Hitman]

Where does these 18 millions come from?

"Nikkei BP"

Obviously.

 

[GDGF]

No way they're going to sell all 12 million of those this year.

 

[Elios83]

Earlier this year they told component suppliers (Sharp, Samsung, etc) to expect orders for 18 million PSPs over the year. Recently they revised that down to 12 million.

This is seperate from their fiscal report (which I'm guessing included the revised figures).

So this is older than the April 2005 fiscal year forecast....so who cares.

 

[solarplexus]

The original source is TechON! in Japan (subscription only).

http://techon.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/NEWS/20050617/105911/

Here's a summary of the TechON! article in japanese. Maybe someone can translate it into english please?

 

[Deku]

I'd say though even for the DS, 20 million seems like an aggressive figure.

 

[jarrod]

So this is older than the April 2005 fiscal year forecast....so who cares.

It's interesting because it shows SCEI revising down internal estimates. I'm sure plenty of people care about that.

Plus the DS estimate is new (Nintendo was only planning 12 million as well in April). Though I'd like some sort of confirmation on that 20 million figure...

 

[cvxfreak]

I'd say though even for the DS, 20 million seems like an aggressive figure.

Perhaps, but sales in the US, Japan and Europe will remain strong throughout the summer (especially in Japan). The winter season, coupled with a probably price drop should also push boatloads of the system out the door. DS is also launching in China and South Korea, so demand will be there.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

I also think 20 million is aggressive figure. I would like to see more news confirm that as fact

 

[GDGF]

I also think 20 million is aggressive figure. I would like to see more news confirm that as fact

If they're really saying 20 million, that probably means Pokemon is going to make it out this year (in Japan, at least)

 

[Elios83]

It's interesting because it shows SCEI revising down internal estimates. I'm sure plenty of people care about that.

Plus the DS estimate is new (Nintendo was only planning 12 million as well in April). Though I'd like some sort of confirmation on that 20 million figure...

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this is bs.
Sony must have been on crack to think they could manufacture 18 million PSPs while they were struggling to make 3 millions and have decidd to delay the european launch.12 million is already optmistic.
Also Nintendo has not revised its 12+ million figure for the next fiscal year,so unless we read this in a Nintendo financial report I wouldn't believe this.

 

[Deku]

Also, their fiscal year ends in March 31st 2006 so we're basically just at the very beginning of the year. So if they are expecting strong holiday sales from their software + carryover into January - March of 06, I could see why they're projecting 20 million.

China and S. Korea should see sales, but how strong, I don't really know. Does anyone even know how well iQue performed in China?

Sony must have been on crack to think they could manufacture 18 million PSPs while they were struggling to make 3 millions.12 million is already optmistic.

Well these are internal revisions, and it is unlikely we'll hear anything about revised manufacturing estimates from Nintendo or Sony officially until next year.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

yeah I already thought of Pokemon

As for a price drop I don't see why they would need one since the PSP is not even touching them

 

[jarrod]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this is bs.

I would. Nikkei doesn't usually print bs.

 

[Chittagong]

Will 20 million devices a year make DS the most successful games system ever?

 

[Tenacious-V]

Ouch... That stings.......

 

[jarrod]

Will 20 million devices a year make DS the most successful games system ever?

Nope. Both PS2 and GBA have shipped over 20 million in their peak years iirc.

 

[Link]

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if this is bs.
Sony must have been on crack to think they could manufacture 18 million PSPs while they were struggling to make 3 millions and have decidd to delay the european launch.12 million is already optmistic.
Also Nintendo has not revised its 12+ million figure for the next fiscal year,so unless we read this in a Nintendo financial report I wouldn't believe this.

Well, don't forget it says these figures were from early 2005, before the PSP's supply was even able to keep up with demand. Back then, Sony and everyone else thought the PSP would come in, steamroll the DS, and go on to sell gangbusters.

 

[TheDiave]

*giggle*

 

[GDGF]

Anybody got that one photoshop that had a bunch of competitors to the Gameboy Family in a graveyard or something? Got a feeling we'll be needing that soon.


(altered up a bit, of course )

 

[AniHawk]

Guys, manufacture =/= ship, right?

 

[GDGF]

Right. Some of those would go in a warehouse me thinks.

 

[chinch]

Nikkei BP says companies providing Sony with components for the portable had been told early in 2005 to expect orders for about 18 million units. However, during a meeting with its suppliers, Sony revealed its plan to manufacture 12 million machines.

too bad they didn't mention the $75+ price drop required to shift that many units.

maybe that will come soon.

calling WALMART

 

[AniHawk]

Right. Some of those would go in a warehouse me thinks.

So the 12 million shipping estimate by Nintendo could still be on for FY06. If Sony was planning on shipping 12 million, but was going to ship that much out of 18 million manufactured...

 

[fugimax]

This is nowhere near over, but I think it proves that PSP/DS isn't going to be a repeat of PS/N64. While Sony will sell a bunch of PSPs, I don't see it overtaking the DS at all.

Three reasons:

1. PSP isn't for kids. I wouldn't buy a PSP for a kid younger than 13. Why? Biggest reason is they'd break it -- pronto. Second reason is that DS offers more games to their liking.

2. Price. $150 is much easier to swallow for a non-hardcore gamer than $250. Bigger audience == more sales.

3. The PSP feels like a "device." I think it's a bit too techy for a lot of people. DS has a "gameboy" feel to it that people are comfortable with. You put a PSP in someone's hands and they're afraid to touch the thing.

(These 3 reasons are generalities...of course there are exceptions to each of them, i.e. your 8 year old neighbor has a PSP and hasn't broken it, but I think they are, for the most part, accurate.)

 

[Chittagong]

I estimated the potential of PSP so wrong. Would be fun to dig up some of my old predictions, but pretty clearly I was expecting Sony KO Nintendo in no time. 70/30 was the final share for Sony, I recall to have estimated.

Watching the market for fifteen years does not improve one's prediction skills - quite the contrary. Impossible always seems to become possible.

The only rule seems to be that content is king. Sony focused a lot on making a high-end system and pushing media functionality, leaving game creators doing high-risk projects for a platform that was actively promoted for other types of content, too. Nintendo, meanwhile, created a dirt-cheap system that was easy to develop for even for smaller companies as it uses the same CPU core as many cellphones.

If I just knew how this translated to next gen. I would guess that for the benefit of MS (great dev environment) or Nintendo (assumably lower tech + familiar APIs). Then again, in home consoles ease of development or initial catalog do not seem to be factors (see PS2).

Confusing.

 

[Matlock]

Nobody won any preconcieved "war" here. Sony overestimated demand from DAY ONE and now they're pulling it back.

 

[ratcliffja]

This is nowhere near over, but I think it proves that PSP/DS isn't going to be a repeat of PS/N64. While Sony will sell a bunch of PSPs, I don't see it overtaking the DS at all.

Three reasons:

1. PSP isn't for kids. I wouldn't buy a PSP for a kid younger than 13. Why? Biggest reason is they'd break it -- pronto. Second reason is that DS offers more games to their liking.

2. Price. $150 is much easier to swallow for a non-hardcore gamer than $250. Bigger audience == more sales.

3. The PSP feels like a "device." I think it's a bit too techy for a lot of people. DS has a "gameboy" feel to it that people are comfortable with. You put a PSP in someone's hands and they're afraid to touch the thing.

(These 3 reasons are generalities...of course there are exceptions to each of them, i.e. your 8 year old neighbor has a PSP and hasn't broken it, but I think they are, for the most part, accurate.)

That seems a pretty fair generalization, though the DS's screen does mean it can't be for as young an audience as a GBA, as kids under 8 might scratch it pretty easily because they don't know any better.

 

[Dilbert]

This thread sucks, and almost all PSP/DS threads suck too.

Crowing about the DS winning ANYTHING at this point is like celebrating a victory when your favorite baseball team is leading 3-1 after the second inning. (For you international GAF folks, it would be like celebrating a victory when your favorite football squad is leading 1-0 in the 20th minute.)

 

[silver]

I see the damage control has begun.

 

[mj1108]

This thread sucks, and almost all PSP/DS threads suck too.

Crowing about the DS winning ANYTHING at this point is like celebrating a victory when your favorite baseball team is leading 3-1 after the second inning. (For you international GAF folks, it would be like celebrating a victory when your favorite football squad is leading 1-0 in the 20th minute.)

Tell that to all of the people here who were predicting Sony to come right in and trounce Nintendo.

 

[goomba]

Handheld gaming will never be cool like playstation made console gaming cool.

 

[fugimax]

though the DS's screen does mean it can't be for as young an audience as a GBA, as kids under 8 might scratch it pretty easily because they don't know any better.

Eh...I've been using my DS relentlessly, and I have no scratches on it. I've seen the ones in EB, etc. on display and they are pretty scratched though.

Remember though, Nintendo will replace screens if they're scratched.

 

[Chittagong]

Tell that to all of the people here who were predicting Sony to come right in and trounce Nintendo.

* hangs head in shame *

 

[Dalthien]

Nobody won any preconcieved "war" here. Sony overestimated demand from DAY ONE and now they're pulling it back.

The problem is that I don't think Sony is done pulling back their inflated estimates yet. Their forecast for the fiscal year ending Mar/06 is 12 million PSP units, and I just can't see them reaching those numbers, unless they plan on storing a few million of them in warehouses. But then, that would mean that they would be producing next to no PSPs next year if they build up a huge warehouse inventory of them.

I wonder if this sort of dramatic (a full 33.3%) reduction in their forecasts to their part suppliers will have an effect on Sony's ability to aggressively price the PSP? These suppliers probably cut Sony a pretty good deal based on projections of 18 million units. If they just lost a third of those units, they will probably tell Sony to go to hell when Sony asks for a price drop - which will make it even more difficult for Sony to drop prices in the future.

 

[DrSandwich]

What if PSP ver 2 is coming out sooner than expected? Lower demand for the old model? Lulling nintendo into a false sense of security? BAM 20gig PSP

 

[Chittagong]

What if PSP ver 2 is coming out sooner than expected? Lower demand for the old model? Lulling nintendo into a false sense of security? BAM 20gig PSP

Would be doable, but not at all smaller than the current PSP. Actually, it'll never get very much smaller because of the media size - the drive size determines the minimum height of the device. Even if they did a fold version like GBA sp, it'd be nearly as big as currently due to the "widescreen height = UMD height, or space is wasted" dilemma. That media size is so 90s.

 

[Azih]

Look guys, the needs of the handheld space are different from the console world. The only question was would Sony's marketing muscle and brand power overcome this and I think is that it won't even though Sony has made more of a dent than anyone else.

Durability+Price+Battery > Power

especially when everyone has the home consoles to provide much better power.

Problem with the PSP is that it's getting crunched by the DS in the portable gaming fundamentals (see formula above) while being utterly destroyed by the iPod as a lifestyle device. Crazily enough the DS and iPod aren't even remotely competing with each other while the PSP is competing with both of 'em.