'Failed' is too strong a word so i'll go back on what I said - not seeing the same level of success [as Clair Obscur], or what would be expected from a mainline FF, would be more accurate.
You don't even have consistency with mainline Final Fantasy success, so it's a garbage claim. Persona 5 did around 3 million in sales. Persona 5 Royal did over 7 million in sales. My point was that turn-based isn't the indicator for a game's success or "failure". You're acting like turn-based combat is a restriction when there is zero evidence to support that claim.
I've already mentioned several games within the same genre which paint a picture of what typical recent JRPG sales look like eg. Persona 3 Reload, SMT Vengeance, Yakuza: Like a Dragon + Infinite Wealth, and Metaphor have all barely exceeded 2 million units.
Which is a about half of what Final Fantasy XVI is estimated to have sold, while Final Fantasy XVI had an insane amount of marketing around it, and, according to you, should have absolutely crushed these games simply because it was action-based combat.
At 3.3 mil Clair is tracking beyond most of its peers, including long established franchises by major developers. As you say: "that's freaking awesome", but it also isn't suggestive of a trend. People are taking one game as a signal that turn-based is back, when it was already here with unimpressive sales...
I have already explained that there are few games of the size and scope of Clair Obscur with which to properly compare it. Clair Obscur is the closest thing we have had to Final Fantasy since Lost Odyssey. The other games you mentioned are all sequels to existing series that people weren't into like they are into Final Fantasy, and they don't have the same size and scope of Final Fantasy games or Clair Obscur. And yet, as you proved, they all did well sales wise.
FFVII - 10 mil
FFVIII - 8.6 mil
FFIX - 5.1 mil
What sales analyst would consider a near 50% decline in the following two entries, and then not being able to regain the same 10 mil peak for nearly 20 years as "about as well"? What sales analyst would consider peaks getting progressively lower across the generations (10 mil for FFVII -> 8.5 mil for FFX -> 7 mil for FFXIII) as "about as well"? It's a description of a bear market if ever there was one.
That's because you were intentionally omitting one of the titles.
FFVII - 10 million
FFVIII - 8.6 million
FFIX - 5.1 million
Final Fantasy X - 8.5 million
Final Fantasy IX had a different art style and theme that didn't resonate as well. It was the outlier, not the rule. But you only frame things to fit your narrative.
As an aside, lightning in a bottle isn't the same meaning as "freak accident". I feel it's worth pointing this out because you're acting like my usage of the idiom is some affront to the games.
Both describe the unlikelihood of an event, but a freak accident couches it in negative terms, while lightning in a bottle is considered positive.
I should have known you would be a pedant about that. Freak success, then. An intelligent person could have figured that out through context.
Capturing lightning in a bottle is still an accomplishment albeit an unlikely one. It also doesn't necessarily mean everything just goes back to normal afterwards. There can be longer term consequences, eg. a failing writer suddenly breaks out with a smash hit book which spawns a successful series.
FFVI with 870k overseas sales going to FFVII with 5.8mil overseas sales, popularizing the series and JRPGs for millions beyond Japan, almost certainly counts.
Perhaps Clair Obscur will signal a new trend. And I would welcome it. But we don't know. Because we aren't at the finding out stage yet.
You aren't welcoming it, though. You said that it's an outlier and that you're sick of people talking about it's success, and that it's success was despite it being turn-based, blah-blah-blah.
Why should I comment on speculation and not concrete numbers? FF16 sales figures have not been disclosed. All we know is that it sold in one week (3 million) what Clair Obscur sold in one month, and what nearly all of Sega's RPGs released in the last few years have failed to do yet in their lifetime.
The gaming industry uses estimates all the time. You're ignoring the estimates now because they don't fit your narrative.
P.S. We also know that Final Fantasy XV sold more in 2 days than Final Fantasy XVI did in a week.
Context is also important. You're comparing a game released exclusively on one platform for $70 with one released multiplatform for a budget price of $50. All of these factors can affect sales success moreso than the type of combat system, and i'm surprised (or not) that it hasn't been brought up yet.
I hate to break it to you, but Final Fantasy XV and XVI are both multiplatform releases. They didn't release on Xbox, which historically has sold very few Final Fantasy games. Additionally, you're ignoring that Clair Obscur was also available on Game Pass which would have cannibalized part of its sales.
Thanks for describing exactly why VII can be considered lighting in a bottle!
Again, if two of the three games released after it did similar sales numbers (and the third game did half as well, but still way better than most releases at that time), then it isn't lightning in a bottle.
^ By the way, if 10 million sales in 2016 isn't as impressive as 10 million in 1997, then why are we acting like 3.3 million in 2025 is at all up there with the 1997?
Really gets the noggin joggin.
Because Final Fantasy was an established franchise, whereas Clair Obscur was a new IP from an unknown studio which received global acclaim, kind of like the first Final Fantasy game did.
I didn't consider it because it's completely irrelevant to a discussion revolving around sales.
Review scores matter almost as much as sales. The user opinion of mainline, single-player Final Fantasy titles has been down since Final Fantasy X, not up. Ignoring that is insane. Final Fantasy XV sold ~10 million copies and has bad reviews. People bought the game because it was Final Fantasy, but then they found out that it was a complete mess of a game with no cohesive vision.
Square Enix have access to the figures and has a whole department doing market research. Why is there this conspiratorial idea that they are just stubbornly acting against what people want rather than following trends in their own data?
Their initial reasoning for moving away from turn-based combat was that having realistic characters standing in a line waiting their turn was ridiculous. And yet, we have Clair Obscur showing that this wasn't ridiculous at all.
If the market says turn-based will make FF17 a big seller, that's what they'll do. But the market after XV released and sold 10 million suggested they do otherwise.
Square Enix has mismanaged Final Fantasy repeatedly. Again, Final Fantasy XV hit the same sales numbers as Final Fantasy VII did, and marginally more than Final Fantasy VIII and Final Fantasy X did, when it released on more platforms, and when there were 2 billion more console and PC gamers. Final Fantasy XV is the second-worst reviewed mainline Final Fantasy game since Final Fantasy VII. In order, these titles are:
- Final Fantasy XIII
- Final Fantasy XV
- Final Fantasy XII
- Final Fantasy XVI
Ignoring user feedback and focusing only on sales is ridiculous. Even without totals released by Square Enix, we know that Final Fantasy XVI has sold millions of copies less than Final Fantasy XV. You seem to forget that Final Fantasy XV sold 5 million copies within two days of its launch. Final Fantasy XVI has sold less copies in two years. The turn-based combat system was never Final Fantasy's problem, and this makes it pretty clear.
And "insulting" games? Get a grip.