A return to form is not a "kneejerk pivot". Expedition 33's critical and commercial success proves that a high fidelity turn-based JRPG is what Final Fantasy fans have wanted for YEARS. XV and XVI were chasing a different audience and hoping Final Fantasy fans come along for the ride.
I'm so tired of the fellating of Clair Obscur.
It's a good game no doubt but it's also
one game. People are suddenly treating it as the blueprint for how
everything should be done in gaming, from its turn-based combat to the way it was developed (did we mention how it was made by only 30 people yet?). You can't take what is obviously a lightning in a bottle release and think it's a) indicative of a broader trend or b) replicable by every turn-based game.
Square Enix have continued to make turn-based games for years (Bravely Default, Octopath Traveller). It's not like it's become a completely alien play style for them. These games were well received by players but SE have the sales data showing it's a style that doesn't normally set the world on fire. Even other companies like Sega, who's sales numbers recently leaked, showed their newer releases Persona 3 Reload and Metaphor only did 2 million units each, while Yakuza: Infinite Wealth sold 1.6 million.
If turn-based is the magic bullet, why did none of these games do as well as the mighty Clair Obscur? Or even Pokemon? The answer is that there are obviously many other factors influencing success than just the battle system...
Let's also not forget that the real-time Final Fantasy XV was more commercially successful than any turn-based Final Fantasy game since VII. FF has been a series in sales decline for decades, even while it was a turn-based series (IX saw a sales drop-off of nearly 50% on PS1).
So yes, basing future strategy of mainline FF on the surprise (keyword) success of Clair Obscur, specifically, is kneejerk. And would also be a pivot, both
to a style - the appeal of which progressively wore off based on sales data - and
from a style, real-time, which actually delivered their first big hit in a long time (XV).
That is why people talk of the identity crisis at Square Enix because it's simply not clear what route will bring the series back to the relevance it once had. Turn-based is not a silver bullet.